Big picture, we do not know the exact answer to 'how good/bad is the ADP data if BLS data disappears?' but the private data providers themselves are pretty clear in every conference/panel that the quality of their own data will erode if they cannot benchmark to BLS estimates.

Who wants to work with Kate Bahn at the Institute for Women's Policy Research? #econ_ra iwpr.applytojob.com/apply/ACdbXf...

Seems bad: “The rise of unofficial US economic reports.” on.ft.com/4n38BAs

Fellow economists: Stand up for Fed Governor Lisa Cook and the principle of Federal Reserve independence. Sign this letter by Monday.

I signed an open letter from economists supporting Fed independence & Gov. Lisa Cook. Add your name by Monday: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F... | Letter: docs.google.com/document/d/1...

This letter is not particularly controversial in its assertions and the topic of central bank independence is extremely important. Takes about 4.5 minutes to read and sign (if you agree.) Looks like the number of signatories is up since Tatyana's post, but Economics needs YOU!

AI Hype vs. Productivity Reality Despite bold claims, there’s little evidence AI has boosted productivity so far. Even stretched scenarios indicate gains will fall short of past booms, suggesting current optimism is likely overdone. open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...

The letter is ready, thanks to all those who helped out! Starting to gather signature now, please consider signing (link at top of letter) & spread the word. docs.google.com/document/d/1...

It’s hard to overstate how big a deal this is - for the economy (ours and globally), for the rule of law, and for the proper and efficient function of government. www.nytimes.com/live/2025/08...

Just received this statement from Lisa Cook: "President Trump purported to fire me 'for cause' when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so. I will not resign. I will continue to carry out my duties to help the American economy as I have been doing since 2022."

The White House seeks politicized control over my university by forcing out our president, as it did at the University of Virginia—a page from the recipe book of authoritarian strongmen on the Left (Maduro) and Right (Orbán). Today President Washington responded to the attack. (thread)

Remembering today when pro-GOP media erupted with outrage over Kamala Harris' warning that Trump had plans to militarize the national guard and deploy them on the streets of US cities. Indeed, he had such plans. And now he's implementing them.

A number of people have claimed recently that the CPS shows a large rise in employment for native-born workers, while immigrant employment has fallen. Here's an exceedingly informative post from @jedkolko.bsky.social, on why the CPS cannot be used in this way. jedkolko.substack.com/p/no-native-...

fresh audio product: • Aaron Benanav @abenanav.bsky.social outlines possibilities for a democratically planned economy • Jerome Nikolai Warren on the possibilities for cooperatives www.leftbusinessobserver.com/Radio.html#S...

ericturkheimer.substack.com/p/news-flash... More underwhelming results for polygenic scores

Has anybody checked in on the people who said that means tested programs are just as durable as universal programs? Not going so hot.

If this Senate language on solar passes, I think we’re in a full-blown national energy crisis within 2 years. Forecasting after the cliff is even worse, but project pipelines will dry up, supply chains will convulse...and cost of new additions will soar. Assuming we can even meet demand growth. 🔌💡

The US has denied the visas of all 12 members of the Senegalese women’s basketball team who were scheduled to travel to the country as part of their preparation for the Afrobasket tournament that begins in August. Afrobasket is also the African qualifiers for the Olympics. #wnba

Another sign that the dollar’s dominance is in trouble: US importers are increasingly being asked by their foreign counterparties to settle transactions in currencies other than the US dollar, such as euros, RMB, Mexican pesos, and Canadian dollars.

This one seems pretty important . . . goes after a slew of them www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

www.wsj.com/politics/nat... This makes a lot of sense.

Yesterday's US Court of International Trade decision invalidates the recent tariffs imposed under IEEPA, including the "reciprocal" tariffs & most tariffs on China, Canada, & Mexico, leaving only the Section 232 commodity tariffs in place. What are the economic implications? 1/8

What's the historical accuracy rate of CEOs speculating about the massive economy-wide effects of their own technology?

Indeed, it's contrary to the way the Constitution reads, what the Framers wrote, and the way it's been implemented.

Let's be real: if Republicans pass the House budget bill as is, it will murder the US nuclear industry, ruin our chances of winning the AI race (by constraining power supply), concede the global auto sector to China, and vaporize about half a trillion dollars of US manufacturing investment...

This saga is one of the scariest and most destructive things the Trump administration has pursued so far, from the standpoint of US democracy. It’s far beyond one individual. www.nytimes.com/2025/05/01/u...

My read on this is very different from how the reporting has framed it. These two countries have mutually exclusive versions of what’s happening right now, not some sort of grounds for agreement. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The U.S. economy shrank -0.3% in Q1 and tariffs didn’t even start until March. To every Trump fan who tells you they didn’t sign up for this, never forget…

The Port of LA (the main route of entry for goods coming from China) is expecting a large drop in scheduled arrivals ... by May 4, estimates show a decline of about a third from a year earlier. (h/t Kevin Gordon) @financialtimes.com

Chinese policymakers continue to take a tough stance on extreme US tariffs. Refusing to negotiate, official accounts openly mocking the US, and today publishing a revisit of Mao's "On Protracted War" all point to little desire to give in anytime soon. Thread.

chat is this good

“The inventory for Christmas, for Halloween, is already being disrupted right now.” #trade #tariffs #China #Trump @bloomberg.com

where we are in 2025: major universities seeking a mutual-protection treaty against the U.S. president

30 years after arriving in the US, I just resigned from Northwestern and we sold our house. We are an American family, I became a citizen in 2014, and until recently did not expect to ever leave. But now, this no longer feels like the right place to raise a family and pursue a research career.

Yet more evidence that we’re living under an authoritarian regime. This would not happen in a democracy. www.wsj.com/us-news/educ...

ICYMI: AU Economics Prof. Kara Reynolds brings critical insight to HuffPost's latest on Trump's escalating trade war. “I am really worried as an economist and as someone with a family,” Reynolds said. “I don’t see Trump backing down, and I don’t see China backing down.” bit.ly/4jtQbGG

I feel like we need to keep saying this because it’s so insane: This is a legal U.S. resident who has been detained for over a month now for his political opinions.

Wow. His Spidey sense is high

🚀 Kicking off IMPA’s Bluesky with big news! Join us this Wed, April 23, as we host @josephestiglitz.bsky.social @ikuziemko.bsky.social @vanessawilliamson.bsky.social & more for a timely conversation on U.S. economic policy. 🕥 10am–12pm 📍 AU SIS 🔗 RSVP: impa.american.edu/tax-policy-i...

To be clear, the narrative shift didn’t just happen, it required courage and action by courts, Senator Van Hollen, union leadership, protesters, reporters and, critically, Abrego Garcia’s wife. In the 1960s, civil rights leaders called it “dramatizing injustice.”

Tariffs drive Mack layoffs madness. #econsky

U.S.-born man from Georgia held for ICE under Florida’s new anti-immigration law georgiarecorder.com/2025/04/17/g...

Why would a student choose to go where the govt has begun kidnapping & exiling students & destroying the $ & years of investment they made towards their degree? This will undermine global demand for U.S. higher education services, a $44 billion/year U.S. export, widening our trade deficit.

I lied we're doing this tonight. It'll be long. The basis trade is a fixed income arbitrage trade which seeks to profit from the spread between cash bonds and futures. What's a cash bond? It's USTs. For example, the current 10y Treasury note is a 4 5/8ths % coupon bond maturing in February 2035.

"I will no longer be able to continue teaching." Hyeongseon Jeon, an assistant professor at the University of Houston, said he had his foreign visa unexpectedly terminated and now must return to Korea immediately. www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston...

*US CHIEF JUSTICE LETS TRUMP REMOVE TWO AGENCY LEADERS FOR NOW Bad news for Jay Powell and for bonds because if he gets removed it will undermine Fed independence