fair. but I'd say the growth slowdown in '18 wasn't a crisis. neither was the Fed jacking up rates. but a stock like META doesn't drop like this unless there's a *theme* -- somewhat similar to those 2 instances -- happening

META has four 25%+ drawdowns in 13 years. (1) the 2018 growth scare (2) covid (3) the Fed going from ZIRP (4) trump breaking world trade. what's happening now isn't a run of the mill correction

half of ORCL's 40%+ drawdowns happened during and after dotcom bubble. another was the 1987 crash. multiple major stocks don't move like this unless something is *happening*

Good @skandaamarnath.bsky.social interview by @robinsonmeyer.bsky.social Especially like Skanda’s point about booms creating the opportunity for long lockups of capital that might otherwise negotiate more flighty terms. overcast.fm/+ABGreBEvq-s

This week on Shift Key, I spoke with @skandaamarnath.bsky.social about how NJ’s power prices became central to its gov race, whether the nuclear industry is in an AI-fueled mania, and what lessons power companies should take from the dot-com boom: heatmap.news/podcast/shif...

Every shot of this Seattle crowd I see the classic PNW couple of “Librarian lady and mechanic man”

Kate Judge, Co-Chair, Better Markets Academic Advisory Board & Columbia Law Prof. joins @jeremykress.bsky.social, Assoc. Professor U-M Business and Co-Faculty Dir. U-M Ctr on Finance, Law & Policy; @skandaamarnath.bsky.social, Exec. Dir. @employamerica.bsky.social to discuss what's next for the Fed.

seeing the squad depth that prevents a drop off from starters missing it’s like watching color tv for the first time

the cure for male loneliness is watching Arsenal go away in Europe without Saka, Saliba, Havertz, Odegaard, Jesus, White and not freaking out

Third straight year where there's been a week with a *huge* spike in initial claims filings for Texas. Prior two times were big one-offs. If that's the case again, the national claims data looks completely different...v similar to last couple of years.

@skandaamarnath.bsky.social and I have a piece out about Stephen Miran, who is being considered for the Fed Board, and some of his concerning views around debt default, dollar policy, and fed independence. Some was covered at the hearing, but there's more... www.employamerica.org/monetary-pol...

My papers arguing that the "Abundance Movement" needs broadening to include place-based jobs policies for distressed places are being released today, with a long paper at the Upjohn Institute & a shorter summary at Brookings Metro.

Point 2: The framework prevented the Fed from being forward-looking in their rate-making decision, delaying their decision to raise rates. It's true that their 2020 forward guidance was based on realized outcomes...

My reading of the record is that the real effect of this language was to expand the Fed's assessment of the labor market beyond just the U-3 unemployment rate (the long-run projection of which did not change much), esp. to participation and empl. rates.

Point 1: The role of "broad-based and inclusive." RR argue that the Fed pursued an “overly optimistic interpretation of maximum employment" in order to "increase job opportunities for historically disadvantaged groups" because of this.

In a paper last year, Romer and Romer (2024) critique these additions to the framework, arguing that this language contributed to delaying the Fed's rate hikes in response to inflation in 2021-2022. I disagree with three key points in their paper. eml.berkeley.edu/~cromer/Repr...

The Fed is currently undergoing a review of its framework, which will codify monetary policy strategy over the next few years. In 2020 they made added this language to the statement, placing a greater emphasis on the full employment aspect of the mandate

New from me at @employamerica.bsky.social In Defense of the 2020 Fed Framework's Emphasis on Full Employment www.employamerica.org/monetary-pol...

For another take on what the Fed should do with its framework review, check out @skandaamarnath.bsky.social's piece on specific language changes the Fed can make to better deal with supply shocks. www.employamerica.org/monetary-pol...

The trade component of this is the most underrated and most compelling. Plenty of components and equipment involved in growing the supply side for electricity where the US either imports or benefits from import competition. Not just from China, but Japan, Korea, EU...

Also for all the talk of consumer spending weakness, auto sales volumes accelerated late last year and if you look through swings driven by front-running of tariffs and the unwind, they're very much holding those gains.

"why are stocks rising instead of falling because Orange Man Bad" maybe because guidance raises outnumbered guidance cuts by 60 reports last week, 99th percentile since 2001. Absolute number of guidance hikes was 84, in the 98.9th percentile for all weeks since 2001. Crazy strong!

A lot of folks still have 2000-2010s era power prices in their heads as “normal” with an expectation that we will return to “normal” at some point. There are many reasons that isn’t true, but this is probably the biggest among them. We are in a new era of power prices.

Partly it's mineral-specific strategy. But mostly the US needs not piles of minerals but knowhow + operating projects, for which price volatility + market illiquidity dissuade investment. This problem calls for an active reserve fund, not a passive hoard of minerals.

Should a US national critical minerals reserve program act more like the National Defense Stockpile or more like the Strategic Petroleum Reserve? Major new report by my team deep dives into this question, looking at 15 minerals relevant to energy. My thoughts🧵: thebreakthrough.org/issues/energ...

The affirmative xG case is never going to sway everyone, especially when there's some ugly eye test involved. But if you're saying "he plays the same position as Saka" you learned nothing from last season, and if you're saying "Chelsea transfers never work" you shouldn't be allowed to drive a car

I'm convinced Noni Madueke is going to be a great Arsenal player, mostly because the arguments against him have been (and I say this advisedly) based on some of the stupidest takes I've seen in any sport in the past decade.

US oil rig counts (proxy for drilling activity) down 13% YTD.

Seems like something happened in April that really shifted the prospects of the US oil and gas industry. 🤔

Oh he's such a skillful politician, is he? Someone ask Zohran about Madueke and let's see how he handles that hot potato.

Employ America’s deep understanding of the macroeconomic picture and innovative legal thinking positions us uniquely well to meet this moment. We’re eager to dive into a new era as an organization, and craft the policies needed to unleash the full potential of the US economy! /end

Strong policy can incentivize investment, prevent supply chain snarls, and create the foundation for a durable full employment economy. We’re committed to equipping policymakers with a robust toolkit to navigate through these uncertain times, into a future of inclusive prosperity 3/4

Employ America was launched in 2019 to confront the policy failures in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. Policymakers learned from their mistakes and avoided another jobless recovery after COVID, but shortages and inflation have revealed the limits of the old playbook 2/4

Exciting news: Employ America is relaunching to face the challenges of a new era! Not only do we have a new logo and new branding, but we’ve also refocused our work pursuing Full Employment, and the array of policy solutions that can sustain it www.employamerica.org/expanding-th...

We’re very excited about this new chapter in Employ America’s history. Big thanks to the whole EA team - and our designers & dev - but esp to former EAgle Alex Williams, who constructed much of the back-end of the new site just before departing for new adventures 🙏 @atwilliams.bsky.social

Second: No new brand is complete without merch! Some vintage logo merch will continue to be available for a limited time, but we’re also premiering our brand new logo on a variety of designs: employ-america-shop.fourthwall.com

First: We have a beautiful new website reflecting a suite of new branding! We of course love our vintage logo - we’ll continue to find ways to use it. Our goal has been to strengthen our visual brand while maintaining continuity in color and details www.employamerica.org

There’s lots of exciting news from Employ America today - we’re unveiling new branding, new mission-focused language, and a new vision for how to achieve durable full employment through robust macroeconomic policy. But that's not all...

When Ackman said he was going to chase an ATP point, I assumed he'd bribe his first round opponent at a Futures tournament in Burundi like a normal person, not get a wildcard into a semi-prestigious event. Shame on me for my naivety, I suppose.

English football pundits routinely demonstrate financial illiteracy….

Any Arsenal supporter whining and moaning about this transfer should be summarily dismissed from evaluating transfers imo May not love the player, but it’s cheap enough for a player young enough and proven enough that you shouldnt waste your energy being mad

Once Zohran realizes the city-owned grocery store thing isn’t going to work, he should hire a team of policy researchers to chase down hypotheses about why grocery stories in NYC suck, and try to fix them. Here’s my contribution for today: Healthfirst OTC Plus benefit cards.

What portion of the New York metropolitan area’s new housing stock was built in JC over the last 5 or 10 years.

Economics are even worse for SMRs b/c you're losing the operating scale economies and introducing new supply chain and contractor complexities w/ yet another from-scratch design. Better off building the same big thing as Georgia and just scale up the learning curve (& down the cost curve)

“Consumer electricity prices rose 0.9% in May, and are up 4.5% in the past year. And it’s quite likely price increases will accelerate through the summer,” warns @zeitlin.bsky.social. Electricity could shock Trump's good inflation story ⬇️

Feat. @skandaamarnath.bsky.social

My latest for @heatmap.news: I asked a host of renewable energy CEOs what repealing the IRA will mean for them. Surprisingly, they say IRA repeal won’t kill every solar and wind project out there. But even if some renewable energy survives, American consumers will have higher electric bills.

This Odd Lots interview with Fulop is great. You can tell when a YIMBY really knows what they're talking about and can get in the weeds vs someone who just says build/zoning/build/zoning.

An episode for all who care about the nuts & bolts of policy, whether it’s - housing YIMBYism & affordability -cost of govt & property taxes -fixing mass transit A governor w/ both a vision and real state & local govt experience is less likely to defer to entrenched interests