@skandaamarnath.bsky.social does not mince words: “Every major pillar of [Warsh’s] self-portrait inverts the public record.” www.employamerica.org/monetary-pol...

www.employamerica.org/monetary-pol... "Every major pillar of his self-portrait inverts the public record." -- @skandaamarnath.bsky.social on the flip-flops and contradictions of Kevin Warsh's history and how he's presenting himself today

Exactly! So we emailed and got this response. They have been using the source data despite it not meeting CPI publication standards for years but suddenly shifted when there was a large gain. A shift in source data would typically be done as part of an annual revision and disclosed ahead of time:

Troubling development--Core PCE inflation was hot in Jan at 0.36% m/m & 3.1% y/y BUT it would have been even hotter had BEA not shifted its source data in an ad hoc fashion to avoid showing an 11.9% m/m rise in legal fees shown in the CPI. The BEA acknowledged they made this choice...not a good look

That is a reasonable concern, but there are plenty of noisy sources ripe for improvement, that is what the annual benchmark process is all about. Changing things in an ad hoc way with no disclosure is the real news here, and decidedly not how they used to make decisions

Trump wanted low rates but when you pick the most partisan guy on the basis of obsequiousness, he may not get what he wants... Also doesn't help when the dollar has shown persistent weakening for the first time in a while.

The long-term borrowing costs that American businesses, families, and Uncle Sam face...those are based on more than one election cycle If you're going to cut rates to please the current President, there's some additional inflation or future rate hikes that also get priced in...

What you can expect from Warsh as Fed Chair -More emphasis on what suits POTUS if it's a Republican -Sudden concerns about inflation and fiscal deficits the moment it's not an R in the WH. Don't expect the Fed to be a good-faith broker if govt is divided in the next crisis

Sure sounds like Kevin Warsh is Trump's Fed Chair choice His views mostly change based on which master he intends to serve, and general partisan convenience. Thought rates were too low until...November 2024. What a shocker Tired: Data-dependence Wired: Presidential-dependence

It's Permutations Christmas Eve! And with huge thanks to @skandaamarnath.bsky.social we've got 100,000 simulations of the final round of league phase games to comb through - Likely opponents for top two - Who gets eighth - Is a draw enough for Napoli? Article 👇 www.cbssports.com/soccer/news/...

Had @jamesbenge.bsky.social sort through everybody’s Matchday 8 chances using @skandaamarnath.bsky.social modeling. www.cbssports.com/soccer/news/...

new subscriber @doublepivotpodcast.bsky.social ! talking through all the Champions League Matchday Eight ~~Scenarios~~ with @skandaamarnath.bsky.social and his projection spreadsheet www.patreon.com/posts/scenar...

Nice little preview of something we’ve got cooking with some help from the great @skandaamarnath.bsky.social

no, it's JPM speak for "we were at 0.4% and it came in half that (rounded) so we need to explain why we boofed the estimate so bad"

Latest @employamerica.bsky.social It Wasn't A Recession - How Age Divergence & A Participation Boom Drove A 1% Rise In The Unemployment Rate www.employamerica.org/labor-market...

Restaurant inflation still biting

Womp womp CPI is a fixed-weight basket of goods and services, but PCE inflation is weighted towards how consumers actually spend When you look at the goods where people actually allocate their dollars and prices are less volatile, we're seeing some meaningful upside right now

Main Cabin (everything below first/business class) revenues -7% YoY while Premium (first/business) +9% is really wild.

nm we got DAL *DELTA: 2026 GROWTH ACCELERATING ON CONSUMER, CORPORATE DEMAND *DELTA AIR LINES TO BUY AS MANY AS 60 BOEING 787 JETS *DELTA AIR LINES 4Q ADJ EPS $1.55, EST. $1.53 *DELTA AIR LINES 4Q PASSENGER REV. $12.92B, EST. $13.01B *DELTA AIR LINES SEES 2026 ADJ EPS $6.50 TO $7.50, EST. $7.20

Latest @employamerica.bsky.social It Wasn't A Recession - How Age Divergence & A Participation Boom Drove A 1% Rise In The Unemployment Rate www.employamerica.org/labor-market...

As this match kinda shows: if you spice up the pitch, cut out part time bowling and tail end batting, you probably can capture all that is great about test cricket in a duration of match comparable and competitive with t20s

4.44 shots plus key passes per 90, with 0.43 xG + xA 3.29 shots plus key passes per 90, with 0.34 xG + xA One of these is Eze and one of these is Odegaard this season in the PL + CL.

There are no shortcuts to affordability. stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/there-are-... My new piece argues that the challenge for policymakers now is to support stable, sustainable growth. No quick fixes or gimmicks. We need “some years” of good policy.

fair. but I'd say the growth slowdown in '18 wasn't a crisis. neither was the Fed jacking up rates. but a stock like META doesn't drop like this unless there's a *theme* -- somewhat similar to those 2 instances -- happening

META has four 25%+ drawdowns in 13 years. (1) the 2018 growth scare (2) covid (3) the Fed going from ZIRP (4) trump breaking world trade. what's happening now isn't a run of the mill correction

half of ORCL's 40%+ drawdowns happened during and after dotcom bubble. another was the 1987 crash. multiple major stocks don't move like this unless something is *happening*

Good @skandaamarnath.bsky.social interview by @robinsonmeyer.bsky.social Especially like Skanda’s point about booms creating the opportunity for long lockups of capital that might otherwise negotiate more flighty terms. overcast.fm/+ABGreBEvq-s

This week on Shift Key, I spoke with @skandaamarnath.bsky.social about how NJ’s power prices became central to its gov race, whether the nuclear industry is in an AI-fueled mania, and what lessons power companies should take from the dot-com boom: heatmap.news/podcast/shif...

Every shot of this Seattle crowd I see the classic PNW couple of “Librarian lady and mechanic man”

Kate Judge, Co-Chair, Better Markets Academic Advisory Board & Columbia Law Prof. joins @jeremykress.bsky.social, Assoc. Professor U-M Business and Co-Faculty Dir. U-M Ctr on Finance, Law & Policy; @skandaamarnath.bsky.social, Exec. Dir. @employamerica.bsky.social to discuss what's next for the Fed.

seeing the squad depth that prevents a drop off from starters missing it’s like watching color tv for the first time

the cure for male loneliness is watching Arsenal go away in Europe without Saka, Saliba, Havertz, Odegaard, Jesus, White and not freaking out

Third straight year where there's been a week with a *huge* spike in initial claims filings for Texas. Prior two times were big one-offs. If that's the case again, the national claims data looks completely different...v similar to last couple of years.

@skandaamarnath.bsky.social and I have a piece out about Stephen Miran, who is being considered for the Fed Board, and some of his concerning views around debt default, dollar policy, and fed independence. Some was covered at the hearing, but there's more... www.employamerica.org/monetary-pol...

My papers arguing that the "Abundance Movement" needs broadening to include place-based jobs policies for distressed places are being released today, with a long paper at the Upjohn Institute & a shorter summary at Brookings Metro.

Point 2: The framework prevented the Fed from being forward-looking in their rate-making decision, delaying their decision to raise rates. It's true that their 2020 forward guidance was based on realized outcomes...

My reading of the record is that the real effect of this language was to expand the Fed's assessment of the labor market beyond just the U-3 unemployment rate (the long-run projection of which did not change much), esp. to participation and empl. rates.

Point 1: The role of "broad-based and inclusive." RR argue that the Fed pursued an “overly optimistic interpretation of maximum employment" in order to "increase job opportunities for historically disadvantaged groups" because of this.

In a paper last year, Romer and Romer (2024) critique these additions to the framework, arguing that this language contributed to delaying the Fed's rate hikes in response to inflation in 2021-2022. I disagree with three key points in their paper. eml.berkeley.edu/~cromer/Repr...

The Fed is currently undergoing a review of its framework, which will codify monetary policy strategy over the next few years. In 2020 they made added this language to the statement, placing a greater emphasis on the full employment aspect of the mandate

New from me at @employamerica.bsky.social In Defense of the 2020 Fed Framework's Emphasis on Full Employment www.employamerica.org/monetary-pol...

For another take on what the Fed should do with its framework review, check out @skandaamarnath.bsky.social's piece on specific language changes the Fed can make to better deal with supply shocks. www.employamerica.org/monetary-pol...

The trade component of this is the most underrated and most compelling. Plenty of components and equipment involved in growing the supply side for electricity where the US either imports or benefits from import competition. Not just from China, but Japan, Korea, EU...

Also for all the talk of consumer spending weakness, auto sales volumes accelerated late last year and if you look through swings driven by front-running of tariffs and the unwind, they're very much holding those gains.

"why are stocks rising instead of falling because Orange Man Bad" maybe because guidance raises outnumbered guidance cuts by 60 reports last week, 99th percentile since 2001. Absolute number of guidance hikes was 84, in the 98.9th percentile for all weeks since 2001. Crazy strong!

A lot of folks still have 2000-2010s era power prices in their heads as “normal” with an expectation that we will return to “normal” at some point. There are many reasons that isn’t true, but this is probably the biggest among them. We are in a new era of power prices.

Partly it's mineral-specific strategy. But mostly the US needs not piles of minerals but knowhow + operating projects, for which price volatility + market illiquidity dissuade investment. This problem calls for an active reserve fund, not a passive hoard of minerals.

Should a US national critical minerals reserve program act more like the National Defense Stockpile or more like the Strategic Petroleum Reserve? Major new report by my team deep dives into this question, looking at 15 minerals relevant to energy. My thoughts🧵: thebreakthrough.org/issues/energ...

The affirmative xG case is never going to sway everyone, especially when there's some ugly eye test involved. But if you're saying "he plays the same position as Saka" you learned nothing from last season, and if you're saying "Chelsea transfers never work" you shouldn't be allowed to drive a car