the valuation argument (comparing to say 2000) for why this isn’t a bubble misses the point. the people who bid QCOM and HPE over 100% in a few weeks didn’t suddenly realize, “oh these names are cheap!”

AAPL high, MSFT low. 2nd day they just use funds from 1 to buy the other

talking myself into pricing a July VIX risk reversal

BKX was straight up for 10 minutes, then they all started buying MU

notice the recent divergence in VIXEQ (IV of SPX component individual options) and VIX. initially they spiked together into Iran war. then both started to drop off. yesterday VIXEQ made a 12 month closing high with VIX near its lowest levels since Jan

almost forgot I had tickets to see Built To Spill

so the Kroenke’s got off the Arsenal parade bus and then immediately traded for Myles Garrett

finally getting a read on mkts after several days away. COR1M, put/call ratio, skew…are all at historic (and dangerous) levels. think mechanics have pushed things too far where we may get severe unwind this summer (similar to 2024 when we saw these metrics reach outlier levels and then VIX hit 60)

walked all over north London

What!!?? He gonna use his head?

think it’ll be Gyokeres Rice Eze Zubimendi Timber

they’re both grabbing. but Noni has position, and Mendes is clumsy and tackles him. I lean towards should have been a pen

Kai would have taken a pen. but his legs don’t have a full 2+ hours to get there. Eze is a magic moments player. hopefully delivers

Havertz looks like he’s still up *with* Gyokeres?

ref wtf

“We’re celebrating throw ins 20 minutes in? This is gonna a horrible time” the brit next to me

can confirm pubs going mad in London

PSG’s lineup picks itself. Arteta had 4 big calls to make. he got us this far, let’s go one more

This article was published on April 21. The straight has remained closed for another ~6 weeks. Did we just overreact? or is the major energy disaster (like a real disaster, not just gas prices jumping) many believe would happen still coming? www.economist.com/finance-and-...

i’m pretty active (bike everyday in dc, crossfit 5x per week). but 20,000 steps already today and my feet, back are killing me. how do people get all these steps in everyday?

me totally relaxed tomorrow when Saka gives us the lead in the 82md minute

we have a lot of statues in dc, but London has more

i see stocks are up. think there was data this morning? honestly doesn't really matter what it was. money is not leaving stocks as an asset class. and so we remain stuck in this rotational bullish vortex with a super steep VX board. mechanics still favorable, and not worth fighting

did some sight seeing

we’ve landed

never taken the metro to Dulles before. most recent flights have been early am. but when you take off at 10:15pm you can take your time with public transportation

I will say markets like this aren’t as fun to post through. last fall when vols were spiky and signaling something was coming, I had a ball adding to the Rounders thread everyday. and then VIX almost hit 30 twice in a few weeks

both a chip and a software company up after hours on earnings with the lowest VIX close since Jan 26th. just keep the market closed until Warsh has to answer questions mid June

nope, i’m not using the Knish looking at Mike McDermott in the bathhouse meme with this one. he meant to so much to use that first season. would be disrespectful

there’s that end of day vol smash that we all know and love in inside a bullish vortex market. and July is still 4.1 above spot! I wouldn’t buy this board with Bea Arthur’s money

packing for the flight

as we like to say: volume is a coincident indicator. high volume markets are tautological with weakness (as everyone sells), and low volume with strength (as few buy in small waves). there is no signal here

Barca has no money (1) how can they bid 80 million for anthony gordon? (2) are they going to play him central as lewandowski leaves? because yamal is on the right and raphinha is on the left

today is another session showing how weak breadth is so important for a rising, healthy market. semis pull the indices higher for weeks. and now when they drop housing, transports, consumer...rallies everywhere else. weak breadth is the lifeblood of this incredible run. embrace it

just spent the last hour figuring how to download and turn on an eSIM line for London. i'm so bad with tech, it's incredible

semis now pulling rank on the indices. maybe we have a bit of a late Jan silver move today, but vols still bored out of their mind

looks like another easy day of rotating away the danger (this time in semis and banks). unrelenting bullish vortex mechanics

ton of movement everywhere..except vols

good morning

it's not just software, the death of crypto also has to be semis additive

nice little into the close rotation to bring semis down a and send banks higher

the reason we are long here and was neutral//short much lower 2 months ago is because price behavior matters so much more than price levels

Having "good breadth" - defined here as the number of sectors outperforming the index - sounds like it's important (LHS) but it isn't. In the past decade, the banger years have been led by only 2-3 of 11 sectors (RHS). So, 75-80% of the sectors underperform most years

it's fine letting the market slide lower, vols can't move

lowest VVIX since Jan 9. that was a Friday ATH just after the end of year holidays, and just before markets started sniffing out trump doing something stupid again

NOK, CSCO, DELL, INTC and the knicks. the last time all 5 did this 1999

even with semis and indices going berserk, not a hint of market up vol up action that we had for a few days 2 weeks ago. the bullish vortex action is just so strong