They're coming third!

Hilarious that a year dominated by discussion about how much AI capex beneficiaries are pulling away from the spenders, and AI disruptors vs disruptees... ...the biggest contributor to the SPY’s gains so far has been #$AAPL, who basically just sat it all out.

Does Tim Cook lead an Apple Pay company with the world’s biggest consumer electronics business attached or something? In 2026, the iPhone maker’s highest correlations within the S&P 500 are with...a bunch of financials. #$AAPL

This morning’s EntryPoint: Charts have broken, retail dip-buying hasn’t As the bottleneck charts turn from borderline ugly to ugly ugly, five-session net single stock purchases have accelerated to about 67% of peak levels (from 33% last Friday). join.sherwood.news/entrypoint

Just one month ever in which high beta momentum cratered 20% and the S&P 500 rose: March 2000 (peak of the dot com bubble) July 2026, as of yesterday’s close, would be added to that list.

If July ended today, this would be the first month in the history of this index (mid 2018) that it falls 10% while the S&P 500 is positive.

Shaping up to be the worst month for Goldman Sachs’ basket of retail favorites since April 2022

Have had six heads of romaine lettuce this week, ama

Apple has bested the S&P 500 by 18.7% over the past 15 sessions. Biggest outperformance since August 2020.

P/S unchanged

Separately, there is the third option, and it’s the road we’ve been going down more recently: that more of this becomes debt and equity financed

Becoming among my stronger takes that AI being zero sum is simultaneously a reason why correlations are so low but also why they should be significantly higher than they are now

Can only describe this in one word: Spursy.

From the perspective of the Fed's Beige Book summary of what business contacts are saying around the country, there have been four wars since 1970: the two invasions of Iraq, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the Iran War.

England vs Argentina, who am I cheering for? Shakira, obviously.

Having some Leo Messi for a late lunch (Argentinian shrimp)

In Q3, worst performing factors are: -momentum -growth -EPS revisions Perfect mix to reach a conclusion of “maybe we were over-extrapolating windfall profits”

TFW your coworker gets mad because your chair squeaks a little

Vanda Research recently said retail net buying activity is waning. Citadel Securities said it’s “exceptionally resilient.” To break the tie: My Robinhood data pipe shows 1M net purchases of single stocks are <77x> what they were at the end of 2019. Read more: join.sherwood.news/entrypoint

How much networking can you really get done in 20 minutes?

#$IBM’s record plunge was also record bought. Net purchases on Robinhood on Tuesday were MORE THAN 3X HIGHER than Big Blue’s prior record session of inflows.

STOP THE (BA)STILLE

I’ve seen more successful French presses with instant coffee

The reign for Spain will come again?

Les Bleus Big Blue 🤝 Having one of those days

Liberté, égalité, adversité

MAX MAXXING The S&P 500’s most recent record close on June 2 came as Google searches for “tokenmaxxing” peaked and rolled over

Honestly, this is too much dispersion.

IBM public in this iteration since 1962 worst one day day losses -23.7% 10/19/87 (Black Monday) -22.7% today

Trent Reznor deals fine art replicas: Nine Goldfinch Sales

Trent Reznor marries into British royalty and has nonuplets, all boys: Nine Princes of Wales

Trent Reznor decides to get into brewing beer: Nine India Pales

Trent Reznor decides to raise livestock: Nine Inch Quails

TIME TO CUT RATE HIKE BETS

Citi’s EPS beat <every analyst’s estimate> and its reward is to...go down 2% Goldman the only bank positive post-earnings. #$GS #$C #$BAC #$WFC #$JPM

This is why I love markets. Five banks reporting, CPI coming in less than an hour, and we’re all talking about IBM. Didn’t have that on my bingo card!

#$IBM cratering after preliminary Q2 results fall short of estimates In letter, CEO says: -“we did not anticipate the magnitude of the capex reprioritization” toward servers, storage, memory -clients were “distracted” by cybersecurity concerns - numerous large deals failed to close on time

Well we haven’t solved the memory chip shortage but we’re sure as hell solving the memory stock shortage

Deutsche Bank has an "Oasis" index, which is the price of 5 beers and 2 packs of cigarettes

Gm

We're all #$KORU traders now.

#$SMH is almost as correlated with SK Hynix (Korea listing) as #$NVDA (its most heavily-weighted member)

Hell in the current political/media environment this is one helluva approval rating for StatCan imho

Gemini so desperately wants me to stop asking it about nuclear fusion that it’s declared me an expert in the field.

Usually have to head to a pickleball court to see an old man act this recklessly with a racket

Unbundled research

What’s one thing you buy in bulk that you think it’s unusual to buy in bulk? For me, it’s ceylon cinnamon.

Since the start of Q2, well over >100% of the net positive revisions to S&P 500 Q2 EPS have come from tech and energy

Really interesting how unique this STIR setup is: Since the mid-1990s, really rare that traders would move to price in a Fed hike in the next six months and then no change, on net, for the 18 months after that.