Shoutout to checks and balances ...Also, nothing is over

*TRUMP’S GLOBAL TARIFFS STRUCK DOWN BY US SUPREME COURT

"$7.7 trillion ain’t what it used to be: Compared with the combined market capitalization of stocks on the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, he points out that it’s on the low side, at about 12%." - @spencerjakab.bsky.social on "cash on the sidelines" www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...

"Supply shock? IPO proceeds plus potential for surge in issuance from here" - BofA

Trump's Kalshi account is batting a hundred

Why mass tech layoffs have little effect on total employment 💾 www.tker.co/p/technology...

"Several participants indicated that they would have supported a two-sided description of the Committee's future interest rate decisions, reflecting the possibility that upward adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate could be appropriate if inflation remains at above-target..."

Futurists and technologists have the Turing test. Investors have the Josh Brown test: Will chatbots and LLMs lessen or eliminate the need for a company's core offering in the near future?

The Fed's using AI tools and seeing quantifiable economic gains.

"38% of FMS investors believe that, all else equal, the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair will likely lead to higher US Treasury yields and a lower US dollar." - BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

"capex too hot right now …CIOs telling CEOs to improve balance sheets (35% from 26%) vs. increase capex (20% from 34%) as FMS investors saying corps 'overinvesting' at new record high" - BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

Struggling to make sense of Big Tech's $600 billion bet on AI? Here's a metric to watch 📋 www.tker.co/p/ai-capex-w...

How an explosive salesman's old equation helps explain why stock market valuations are high 🧮 www.tker.co/p/dupont-dec...

2026 could be crappy for the stock market, and that would be normal 📉 www.tker.co/p/stock-mark...

"They are exit strategies to get out of the present. ... Nostalgia is 'things were better before' ... Speculation is 'things will be better when my bet hits'" Thought-provoking discussion from @kyla.bsky.social

Economic data can often be both 'worse' and 'good' 🌦️ www.tker.co/p/household-...

Great read from Jason Zweig www.wsj.com/finance/inve...

"We have shown over the past couple of years that Return-on-Equity readings for companies are very high, and very supportive of equity prices as the high ROE promotes rapid growth of corporate book value, and consequently higher market valuations." - Rick Rieder

Berkshire Hathaway's annual report drops on Saturday, Feb. 28. Will include Greg Abel's first letter to shareholders.

Overall consumer prices were up 2.4 percent in January from a year earlier, the slowest year-on-year rate of inflation since last May. Core inflation was the slowest it's been since 2021.

Another day of massive moves. Pre-market movers: PINS -21% DKNG -17% EXPE -5% ABNB +5% COIN +6% ANET +10% AMAT +11% ROKU +15% RIVN +21%

🍕🍔"According to Bank of America card data, casual dining and pizza restaurants have seen multi-year share declines within overall restaurant spending as consumers gravitate toward eateries that offer better value, convenience, or novelty." institute.bankofamerica.com/economic-ins...

Good discussion on depreciation. Worth noting that you can often find depreciation broken out on cash flow statements. All this will become a much bigger deal when the new data centers and stuff go live. Wrote about this for TKer.co subscribers on Tuesday...

Rieder: “Monetary policy has an important role to play in supporting employment, so we foresee at least two policy rate cuts this year, and perhaps more if the labor market does move in a more negative direction.”

Hey @tker.co, why didn't you tell me the Dow was over $50,000!?!? Huge.

“‘Ehh auditing can basically be done by AI so why should we pay for it’ is not a crazy thing for most companies to think, or to say to their auditors, but it is a crazy thing for an auditing firm to say to its auditor.”

💳📈"Consumer spending showed solid resilience in January, with total card spending rising 2.6% year-over-year (YoY) — the strongest pace in nearly two years..." - BofA card data institute.bankofamerica.com/economic-ins...

Struggling to make sense of Big Tech's $600 billion bet on AI? Here's a metric to watch 📋 www.tker.co/p/ai-capex-w...

Retail sales up 0.0% in Dec. -0.9% furniture -0.7% clothes -0.7% dept stores -0.4% electronics -0.2% cars, parts -0.2% health, personal care -0.1% restaurants, bars +0.1% online +0.1% grocery +0.3% gas stations +0.4% sporting, hobby, music, books +1.2% building mats, garden

Remarkable. Higher income wage growth is stronger than lower income. Before about a year ago, that was flipped. Lower income wage growth used to be very strong pre 2025. BofA data

Dow constituents’ average tenure has been trending lower. @spdjindices.bsky.social

"Sentiment surged for consumers with the largest stock portfolios, while it stagnated and remained at dismal levels for consumers without stock holdings." - UMich consumer sentiment survey www.sca.isr.umich.edu

We're learning more about who's winning and losing in the AI revolution 🤖 www.tker.co/p/ai-tech-wi...

The stock market is the economy for the top of the K. The stock market is NOT the economy for the bottom.

DOW 50,000

"Sentiment surged for consumers with the largest stock portfolios, while it stagnated and remained at dismal levels for consumers without stock holdings." - UMich consumer sentiment survey www.sca.isr.umich.edu

"Bro Billionaires" are underperforming small caps. BofA: "We are long Main St, short Wall St until Trump approval rating up on policy pivot to address affordability."

How an explosive salesman's old equation helps explain why stock market valuations are high 🧮 www.tker.co/p/dupont-dec...

Drawdowns from 52 week highs for selected U.S. tech and related stocks - DB

🚨The new @ckaiwu.bsky.social note on AI adopters is a banger. Great nuance, not just sweeping generalizations. etfarchitect.com/wp-content/u...

Personal and work-related AI usage by age and income, according to Morgan Stanley survey

“The most striking feature in January was the breadth of the rally. Despite an array of risks around Venezuela, Iran, Greenland and Fed independence, nearly every major asset was still in positive territory. - DB

"While many of Meeker’s boldest projections seemed wildly optimistic at the time, the vast majority proved not only directionally correct but often modest in hindsight." www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

What comes after the bubble could be electrifying ⚡️ www.tker.co/p/ai-compare...

🔥S&P 500 reporting highest net profit margin in more than 15 years - FactSet As I wrote in September, this is a key business story to watch in 2026 www.tker.co/p/profit-mar...

Nearly 40% of U.S. homeowners did not have a mortgage in 2024 - Census www.census.gov/library/stor...

Some quick initial thoughts on Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh 🤔 www.tker.co/p/trump-nomi...

"Warsh has some challenges that start almost right away. First, does he act as a shadow Fed chair? If he is going to second guess Powell at every turn or forcibly disagree with him, he may appease his new boss, but he runs the risk of alienating himself to the rest of the Committee..." - Wells Fargo

I reckon Fed Chair nominee Warsh is in this camp