27 charts to consider as we look forward in the stock market 📊📉📈 www.tker.co/p/stock-mark...

Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson on the "surprise for '26"

"These Rolexes Look Identical. Why Is the Gold One $17,000 Cheaper?" @felixsalmon.com www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

"...a messier transition puts around 900k b/d of supply at risk; the bulk of this oil goes to China, while US refiners import a little less than 150k b/d. While losing this supply would provide some upside to our current forecasts, a well-supplied market means the upside is likely limited." -ING

40% of US homes don’t have a mortgage - Apollo’s Slok

It's not bearish when the stock market's leaders fall behind 🔀 www.tker.co/p/stock-mark...

S&P 500 closed at 6,845, within Wall Street's initial range.

"...it has been more common for the S&P 500 to be up 20% to 30% than it has been for it to be up between 0% and 10%." - Bespoke Investment Group

Love @tker.co stats: -Strategists’ tgt tend to be way off, on average, by 14.1 percentage points. -Avg returns are rare: SPX returned 8-10% 4x since 1950. -Normal returns are avg between -7.7% - +31.3% -Since 1928, SPX +21% in avg up year; fell 13% in avg down year. www.tker.co/p/one-year-s...

8 stock market stats I'm thinking about as we enter a new year 📋 www.tker.co/p/one-year-s...

Robinhood was the best stock in the S&P 500 this year, up 220% - one of our biggest surprises of 2025. Sam Ro @tker.co reveals The Street’s outlook for 2026 and more! YouTube: www.youtube.com/live/P5vi8Fe... Apple / Spotify: podcasts.thecompoundnews.com/show/TCAF/th...

I made a cameo on What Are Your Thoughts! Talked about 2026 targets. Check it out here www.youtube.com/live/P5vi8Fe...

Every time I publish about how I'm terrible at timing the market, I see an unusual jump in free and paid subs. The lesson: Everyone writes about how they're great at trading. Few write about how they're terrible at it. The audience for the latter is underserved. That's an opportunity.

2025 has been fun

8 lessons for investors from 2025 📜 www.tker.co/p/stock-mark...

Great round up of charts👇👇

"...when the rewards for prudence erode and the traditional path—a college degree, buying a house, working at the same job for decades—starts to become more and more difficult to achieve, economic risk becomes the baseline option instead of a choice."

When last place is still pretty great 🤨 www.tker.co/p/us-stock-m...

Post-pandemic frustration with high prices persists even when inflation expectations soften - UMich consumer sentiment survey

I cite S&P Dow Jones Indices data regularly. So it's very cool to see them cite TKer in one of their reports! www.indexologyblog.com/2025/12/18/c...

The hot debate in the stock market going into 2026 ⚖️ www.tker.co/p/strategist...

My official year end target for the S&P 500

“U.S. large caps are on track for their third consecutive year of well above average returns: after price returns of 24% and 23%, respectively, in 2023 and 2024, the S&P 500 is up 15.6% year-to-date excluding dividends, vs. an average calendar year return of 9.2% since the index’s inception.” - S&P

"In December, FMS investors continue to believe that companies are overinvesting as concerns linger about the AI capex boom." - BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

U.S. real GDP growth rate since 1800 - Goldman

'Valuation says... nothing' 🤷🏻‍♂️ www.tker.co/p/schwab-for...

"An ounce of silver is worth more than a barrel of oil" - Brent Donnelly www.spectramarkets.com/amfx/ounce-o...

📈Goldman: "We expect strong earnings growth will continue to be the primary driver of higher S&P 500 prices. We expect the S&P 500 will rise to 7600 in 2026, roughly consistent with our forecast for S&P 500 EPS growth."

Disney 🤝 OpenAI

More layoffs, more corporate earnings growth? 🤑 www.tker.co/p/ai-layoffs...

Gauging consumer spending with private data sets is hard, exhibit one million. Amex a huge contrast to BoA. *AMERICAN EXPRESS CEO SQUERI COMMENTS AT GS FINANCE CONFERENCE *AMEX: US CONSUMER RETAIL SPENDING UP 9% IN PARTS OF NOVEMBER *AMEX: DATA FOR WEEK BEFORE THANKSGIVING THROUGH CYBER MONDAY

"Total card spending was flat MoM in November" - BofA credit and debit card data 💳 institute.bankofamerica.com/economic-ins...

hoooo boy. *SPACEX SEES VALUATION OF ABOUT $1.5 TRILLION IN PUBLIC OFFERING *SPACEX SAID TO PURSUE 2026 IPO RAISING FAR ABOVE $30 BILLION *SPACEX SEES ABOUT $15B IN 2025 SALES, $22B-$24B IN 2026 *SPACEX TARGETS IPO MID-TO-LATE 2026, DEPENDING ON MARKETS

It's impressive how accurate analysts' S&P 500 EPS estimates tend to be. From FactSet

Wall Street's 2026 outlook for stocks 🔭 www.tker.co/p/wall-stree...

CRH, Carvana, and Comfort Systems to join the S&P 500

We're above the closing high of 6,890. The S&P is now up 17% year to date.

Gas prices fall below $3 a gallon for the first time in 4 years - AAA

"Nearly half (49%) of US job seekers selected 'better benefits' as an attribute they were looking for in a new job, the second most common motivator after 'higher pay,' according to the 2025 Indeed Workforce Insights Survey." www.hiringlab.org/2025/12/04/c...

Good years in the stock market tend to be great years 🚀 www.tker.co/p/stock-mark...

Updated

RBC's Calvasina is changing her approach to updating S&P 500 targets: "...We have also made this move to keep the focus of our price target on the longer-term opportunity in the US equity market, which is what most of the clients we speak with on a regular basis prefer to discuss..."

Returns for Major Global Financial Assets since the launch of ChatGPT on November 30th 2022. - DB

"November marked the seventh consecutive monthly gain for the U.S. bellwether index, a streak not seen in more than four years. The longest run of monthly gains since the S&P 500’s inception was an 11-month winning streak that ended in January 1959." - S&P Dow Jones Indices

“Households with lower asset holdings mainly own their home and their car. Wealthier households mainly own business assets and stocks.” - Apollo’s Slok

“Historically, the S&P 500 has generated an average annualized return of about 8%-10%. … Unfortunately, it’s actually extremely unusual for the S&P to generate such a return in a single year.”

Here’s a preliminary roundup of 2026 targets. They’re looking bullish

New from JPMorgan:

Tough comps due to "Taylor Swift," according to the Atlanta Fed www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypoli...

"The typical (median) annual price return over the past 100 years is 11.6%. But in years when returns were positive (>+2%), average (and median) returns were strikingly higher at 19-20%." - Deutsche Bank