❄️ December 2025 US Executive Briefing ⛸️ Skating on thin ice... into 2026 🏛️Fragile A-pillars: The US economy’s three narrow A-pillars of growth — affluent consumers, AI-driven investment and asset-price strength — are becoming more fragile www.linkedin.com/posts/gregor...

Japan raises interest rates to highest level in 30 years « In a statement on Friday, the BoJ said it was raising its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to “around 0.75% » giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

😦 Extremely noisy US CPI #inflation 📉Average Oct & Nov m/m change: 📈#CPI +0.1% 🟠Core +0.1% 🍲Food +0% ⛽️Energy +0.5% (Gas +0.4%) ✅Core gds 0% 🚗New 0.2% 🚘Used 0.5% 👕Apparel -0.4% ✅Core svc 0.1% 🏘️Shelter 0.1% 🏨Hotel -0.8% 🏥Med 0.1% 🛫Air -3.3% 📜Car insur -0.2%

🇬🇧Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee voted 5–4 to reduce Bank Rate by 0.25ppt, to 3.75%. « Although above the 2% target, inflation now expected to fall back towards target more quickly in the near term… risk from greater persistence somewhat less pronounced »

“.. Wage growth is rapidly easing and judging by leading indicators and conversations with business executives there is more deceleration in the pipeline (lower raises and lower entry wages).” - @gregdaco.bsky.social

President Trump is set to interview another candidate for Federal Reserve chair, governor Christopher Waller, on Wednesday www.wsj.com/economy/cent...

🌍 EY Global Economic Outlook 2026: Resilience in a Supply-Driven World The global economy is entering a new phase—one shaped less by demand cycles and more by supply-side forces. www.linkedin.com/posts/gregor...

US #Retail sales: Mixed bag with softness in Oct 🟠Sales +0% ⛔️Inflation-adjusted ✅Core sales +0.8% ✅Volumes 🛋️Furn 2.3% ⚽️Sports 1.9% 💻Online 1.8% 👗Cloth 0.9% 🎮Elec 0.7% 🏬Merch 0.5% 🛒Groc 0.3% 👩‍🍳Rest/bar -0.4% ⚕️Health -0.6% ⛽️Gas -0.8% 🏠Build mat -0.9% 🚗Auto -1.6%

US #Jobsreport Oct/Nov '25: ❄️"Frozen & weak" 📅Nov 🟠Payrolls +64k 🟠Private +69k 🟠Gds +19k 🟠Services +50k 🔻Gov -5k ✅Diffusion 57% 🚨October: -105k 🚨Revisions Aug/Sep: -33k 🟠Hours +0.3% 🔺#Unemployment 4.6% ✅Part rate 62.5% 📉Wages ✅+0.1% m/m ✅3.5% y/y

Can't actually find this on the BLS site, suggests we should be cautious on HH survey numbers (eg unemp rate) until '26 *BLS POSTS FAQ ON NOV. HOUSEHOLD EMPLOYMENT SURVEY *BLS: NOV. HOUSEHOLD SURVEY HAS SLIGHTLY LARGER STANDARD ERROR *BLS HOUSEHOLD POLL'S HIGHER STANDARD ERRORS MAY LAST A FEW MOS.

🎌The Bank of Japan indicated further progress on wages, a key consideration that effectively cements the case for a rate hike this week www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said "monetary policy is well positioned as we head into 2026" following last week’s interest-rate reduction www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Confidence among US homebuilders edged up in December as builders continued to deploy sales incentives to motivate buyers www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Only Creative Destruction Will Boost European Competitiveness by Philippe Aghion @projectsyndicate.bsky.social prosyn.org/dAEUGds

Well played 🩵

*SOME ORACLE DATA CENTERS FOR OPENAI DELAYED TO 2028 FROM 2027 *ORACLE DELAYS LARGELY DUE TO LABOR AND MATERIAL SHORTAGES Could become a common theme--you can't build w/o workers. Construction workers are mostly immigrants. Tariffs also increase materials costs...hard to have your cake & eat it too

Trump Says He Is Leaning Toward Warsh or Hassett to Lead the Fed In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Trump said the next Fed chair should consult with him on interest rates www.wsj.com/economy/cent...

Across the US, affordability concerns are intensifying “It’s not just lower-income families, it’s median & upper-median families that are increasingly feeling the burden of this affordability crisis” said Greg Daco, EY chief economist www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Alright @mancity.com, the first to 10k followers wins 🩵

🏛️Act I "Following a comprehensive review by the boards of directors of the regional Reserve Banks & unanimous concurrence of Federal Reserve Board members, the Fed announced the reappointment of Federal Reserve Bank presidents & first vice presidents" www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/p...

President Trump wants lower interest rates and a new Fed chair. Wednesday’s divisions suggest one won’t guarantee the other.

China leads objections to Trump carve-out on global minimum tax

📊US #trade deficit narrowed 11% to $52.8bn in Sep as exports surged 🪙Nonmonetary gold explains 75% of export surge & +100% import rise ✅Exports +3.0% ➕Food, Petroleum, Pharma ➖Autos, Computers/Chips ✅Imports +0.6% ➕Consumer led by pharma ➖Computers & Autos

Fed Divisions Underscore Challenge for Trump’s Next Chair www.nytimes.com/2025/12/11/b...

"Curious" US labor market fragility 📈Initial claims for #unemployment surged in week-ended Dec 6 *but* only offsetting the seasonal Thanksgiving slump. Continuing claims near a 4-year high. 📈Claims: 236k (+44k) 📈4-wk avg: 217k (+2k)

Great to see the @mancity.com win after the #Fed coverage -- will watch highlights tonight 💙

📉 Pressured, not pressed for rate cuts ✂️ Fed cuts the federal funds rate by 25bp to 3.50%–3.75% & resumes balance sheet expansion ⚖️ #FOMC polarization is increasingly visible 🫸Fed on hold with policy rate close to neutral www.linkedin.com/posts/gregor...

#Fed Chair #Powell: 1️⃣Near-term risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, & risks to employment to the downside 2️⃣No risk-free path for policy as we navigate this tension between our employment & inflation goals 3️⃣Policy rate within a range of plausible estimates of neutral

🚨#Fed "Pressured, not pressed" 1️⃣ #FOMC cuts 25bps to 3.5-3.75% 2️⃣Job gains slowed & inflation moved up 3️⃣Downside risks to employment rose 4️⃣Risk management cut 5️⃣"Extent & timing" signals pause 6️⃣Schmid & Goolsbee dissent for hold; Miran for -50bps 7️⃣Balance sheet expansion to resume

US to require social media disclosure for visa-waiver requests

Wage growth at 3-3.5%, job growth at 0%, and inflation at 3% leaves households without much real spending power these days.

Government shutdown with lingering impact on data For the ECI report: "any data self-reported by establishments during the shutdown were reviewed and included; however, survey response rates decreased [to record low 41%] in September"

US Employment Cost Index: "Cooling wage growth is good for inflation, but a risk for consumers" 📊ECI +0.8% q/q in Q3 2025 ✅Wage & salaries +0.8% ✅Benefits +0.8% 💰Wages & salaries ✅Private +0.8% q/q 📉Wage inflation ⤵️ECI 3.5% y/y (-0.1pt) ↔️Private wages 3.55%

Global bond yields have risen to highs last seen in 2009 ahead of a key Fed meeting, signaling concerns that interest-rate cutting cycles from the US to Australia may be ending soon. Inflation, fiscal sustainability & central bank independence are 3 key factors. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Same product. Same store. Same time. But on Instacart, different customers may see different prices. My story on a fascinating new experiment from @groundwork.bsky.social & @consumerreports.org and how the idea of a single price is breaking down in the digital age: www.nytimes.com/2025/12/09/b...

Same Product, Same Store, but on Instacart, Prices Might Differ www.nytimes.com/2025/12/09/b...

🚧October #JOLTS: US labor market is weakening 🔼Job openings: 7.7mn (+12k) 🔻Hiring: 5.1mn (-218k): 3rd lowest post-Covid 🔻Quits: 2.9mn (-187k): Post-Covid low 🔺Layoffs: 1.9mn (+73k): 2nd highest since 2020 & trending higher

A key US Supreme Court justice indicated he wants to protect the Federal Reserve’s independence as the conservative majority weighed giving President Donald Trump power to fire members of the Federal Trade Commission and similar independent agencies. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Donald Trump’s decision to allow Nvidia to sell advanced chips to China marks more than just a shift in US tech policy. It also raises questions about how far he’ll go to steady ties with Xi Jinping. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Let’s go @mancity.com ! Great play despite Sunderland playing with 11 back 🩵

⛔️UMich Consumer #Sentiment bounced up a tad in early December, but morale is historically despressed ⚠️The affordability crisis and "dismal" labor market expectations have kept consumer views "broadly somber" 🔼Sentiment +4.5% 🔻Current Conditions -0.8% 🔼Expectations +7.8%

Market-based core inflation has settled a good 1/2pp above target, now the Fed is faced with the same tough decision it had when inflation was stable below target--how hard do you press to get to 2% vs. letting the labor market breathe? No risk free choices as JPow says @laurarosner.bsky.social

Most US consumers struggle in the face of higher prices 🛒Consumer spending +0.3% m/m in Sep 🔴Inflation-adjusted 0% 💵Disposable income +0.3% 🟠Inflation-adjusted +0.1% 🏦Savings rate: 4.7% (flat) 📈PCE #inflation 🔺Headline: 2.8% y/y (+0.1pt) 🔽Core: 2.8% y/y (-0.1pt)

🇺🇸#Tariff-induced #inflation. Hitting where it hurts: groceries, clothing, restaurants & transportation 📆September 2025 🔺Headline PCE prices: 0.27% m/m 🔺Core PCE prices: 0.20% m/m 🎯Moving away from 2% #Fed target 🔺Headline PCE: 2.7% (+0.1pt) 🔽Core PCE: 2.8% (-0.1pt)

Netflix has agreed to buy Warner Bros. in a $72 billion deal after the entertainment company splits its studios and HBO Max streaming business from its cable networks

🚨 Challenger, Gray & Christmas: 71k #job cut announcements in November ☑️-53% m/m 🔺+24% y/y 🛑Highest November since 2022 🛑Highest YTD (1.2mn) since 2020 ⚠️Telecom, Tech & Food led the job cuts

"Curious" US labor market fragility 📈Initial claims for #unemployment eased back in week-ended Nov 29 *but* Thanksgiving volatility & continuing claims near a 4-year high 📉Claims: 191k (-27k) 📉4-wk avg: 215k (-10k)

« Bond investors have told the US Treasury they are concerned about Kevin Hassett’s potential appointment as Federal Reserve chair, worrying he will cut interest rates aggressively to please President Donald Trump. » giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

📊The K-shaped economy where small & medium-sized businesses are increasingly struggling. ⚖️More pressured by negative supply shocks (trade and immigration) than lifted by positive supply shocks (AI).

Weak US private sector employment: -32k via @ADP in November Key insights: 🔻Declines in 4 of last 6 months 🔻3-mo average down -3k 🔻Job losses for small businesses 🔻Prof & business services, info, manufacturing, construction & finance ✅Healthcare & leisure