Fascinating contrast with hard data, which ranges from "likely overstating strength" (payrolls) to "about right with caveats" (unemployment rate) to "scorching hot" (claims) to "question mark" (ADP weekly payrolls).

Census shows a dramatic slowing in population growth from declining net migration--immigration is slowing and emigration is rising, the latter can reflect both voluntary deportation & brain drain www.census.gov/newsroom/blo...

🚨Depressed US consumers in January! 🚨@Conferenceboard consumer confidence index collapsed to lowest point since 2014 -- lower than during Covid! 🔻Confidence: -9.7pt 🔻Present situation: -9.9pt 🔻Expectations: -9.5pt ⚠️Depressed by weak job & income conditions & prospects

Shares of major US insurers tumbled after the US proposed holding payments to private Medicare plans flat next year, a huge disappointment for investors. bloomberg.com/news/article...

Silver surged the most since 2008 and gold roared past $5,000-an-ounce for the first time, extending a precious metals rally www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

📈Core capital goods orders & shipments show solid momentum in Q4 driven by computer & communications equipment, machinery & fabricated metals 📅November: ⛔️Shipments: -0.2% ✅Core capital goods shipt ex aircraft: +0.4% ✅Orders: +5.3% (after -2.2% in Oct) ✅Core cap: +0.7%

TOP in @punchbowlnews.bsky.social ☀️ AM: The Senate and White House are heading into a crisis as outrage over two fatal Minneapolis shootings by federal agents fuels calls for investigations and threatens to derail DHS funding ahead of this week’s shutdown deadline. punchbowl.news/article/wash...

The killing of Alex Pretti is a heartbreaking tragedy. It should also be a wake-up call to every American, regardless of party, that many of our core values as a nation are increasingly under assault.

EVERCORE: “.. logistics aside, it is critical to watch how Republicans in Congress and the White House respond to the latest episode. But at this point, it is highly likely we are heading for another shutdown, at least a short one.”

The #Fed reaction function for restarting cuts in 2026 rests on two triggers and one binding constraint. www.linkedin.com/posts/gregor...

🩵 Good win @mancity.com and great to see Marc Guehi start and Semenyo on the score sheet! Marmoush man of the match !

President Trump threatened a major escalation in a brewing trade war against Canadian Prime Minister Carney’s government, warning that the US would impose 100% tariffs on all Canadian goods & products coming into the US if « Canada makes a deal with China» www.wsj.com/politics/tru...

Chinese leader Xi Jinping has placed his most senior general under investigation, extending a relentless crackdown on military corruption and disloyalty

Thousands took to the streets in subzero temperatures in Minneapolis on Friday to protest the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown in Minnesota. Roughly 100 clergy members were arrested

📣Mind the gap: The striking gap between real disposable income growth, which stood at just 1% y/y in November 2025, and real consumer spending growth at 2.6% y/y, suggests that the current pace of spending is unlikely to be sustained

⛔️UMich Consumer #Sentiment continues to reflect historically depressed consumers in early 2026, despite modest bounce ⚠️Why? "Pressures on purchasing power stemming from high prices & the prospect of weakening labor markets" 🔼Sentiment +6.6% 🔼Current Conditions -9.9% 🔼Expectations +4.4%

UPDATED Hutchins Fiscal Impact Measure shows local, state & federal fiscal policy added 0.3 pct pts to US GDP growth in Q3 2025. We expect fiscal policy lowered GDP growth by 1.3 pct pts in Q4 2025, largely due to government shutdown . www.brookings.edu/articles/hut... @brookings.edu

The Bank of #Japan left its policy rate unchanged Friday at 0.75% as it takes time to assess the impact of last month’s increase and awaits the outcome of a snap election that may affect the nation’s spending plans. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

US profit margins remained near record highs in Q3 2025

Donald Trump sues JPMorgan and CEO Dimon for $5bn over debanking

📉For me, the most important indicator is real disposable income growth at 1.0% y/y in November: the slowest pace since Dec '22 Spending growth is neither broad, nor as robust as it appears when financed by higher‑income households, greater comfort with borrowing & a willingness to tap into savings

Robust aggregate US consumer spending trend during the holidays masks savings dip & growing polarization 🛒Consumer spend +0.5% m/m in Oct & Nov 🟢Inflation-adjusted +0.3% 💵Disposable income +0.3% in Nov 🟠Inflation-adjusted +0.1% 🏦Savings rate: 3.5% (-0.2pt): 3yr low⚠️

🇺🇸#Tariff-induced #inflation reacceleration despite housing price disinflation 📆November 2025 🔺Headline PCE prices: 0.21% m/m 🔺Core PCE prices: 0.16% m/m 🎯Moving away from 2% #Fed target 🔺Headline PCE inflation: 2.8% (+0.1pt) 🔺Core PCE inflation: 2.8% (+0.1pt)

An adjusting US economy 📉Real #GDP revised up in Q3 '25 ✅+4.4% q/q (+0.1pt) ✅+2.3% y/y 🛒Cons +3.5% 👩‍💻Business invest +3.2% 🏘️Residential invest -7.1% 📦Trade +1.6pt 🏗️Inventories -0.1pt 🏦Gov +2.2% 📈#Inflation 🔺Headline 2.7% y/y (+0.3pt) 🔺Core 2.9% y/y (+0.2pt)

Inside Trump’s Head-Spinning Greenland U-Turn www.wsj.com/politics/nat...

BREAKING: Immigration officers are asserting sweeping power to enter homes without a judge’s warrant, a memo obtained by AP says.

« President Donald Trump said he would refrain from imposing tariffs on goods from European nations that oppose his effort to take possession of Greenland, adding he reached a “framework of a future deal” regarding the island. » www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

⛔️Pending sales of US existing homes fell in December by the most since April 2020, an unusually large drop after the housing market appeared to be gaining some momentum www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

From 2024 GAO report: "According to one estimate, by June 2022, 32 investors each owned more than 1,000 single-family properties in the US. Collectively, this totaled nearly 450k homes, or about 3% of all single-family rental homes nationally"

Trump on US homes and credit cards: ▶️Trump Reiterates Seeking Credit Card Interest Cap for 1 Year ▶️Criticizes Credit Card Companies Interest Charges ▶️Signed Order Banning Institutional Home Buyers www.bloomberg.com/news/live-bl...

Trump’s on #Greenland ▶️Wants immediate talks about buying Greenland ▶️Won’t use military might: "I don’t have to use force. I don’t want to use force. I won’t use force" ▶️Wants “title and ownership” because don’t want to defend “license agreement” claim www.bloomberg.com/news/live-bl...

🇯🇵 « What started as an unremarkable day on Tokyo trading desks quickly morphed into…the most chaotic session in recent memory. While concerns about #Japan fiscal position had been simmering, they suddenly boiled over…sending yields on some bonds to all-time highs » www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

China Economy Grows 5% in 2025 as Exports Meet Target « While industrial production fared well in recent months, retail sales and investment worsened. China GDP grew 4.5% y/y in Q4… the slowest pace since the reopening from Covid lockdowns in late 2022. » www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

👀 President Trump said he would impose 10% tariffs on imports from several European countries starting next month in an effort to pressure Denmark to sell Greenland to the U.S. www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

Can Trump Make Venezuela an Oil Giant Again? Via Daniel Yergin www.wsj.com/world/americ...

📖 Week-end must read ⤵️ The threat to the global economy from Trump’s war on the Fed via @senojerialc.bsky.social Sam Fleming Myles McCormick @financialtimes.com giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

« I actually want to keep you where you are, if you want to know the truth,” Trump told Hassett during a White House event “If I move him, these #Fed guys — certainly the one we have now — they don’t talk much. I would lose you…a serious concern to me » www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

🇺🇸Industrial #production up 0.4% in December 🟠#Manufacturing +0.2% m/m 🟠Durables +0.1%: primary metals (+2.4%), electrical eqpmt (+1.7%) aerospace (+1.5%) but autos (-1.1%) 🟠Nondurables +0.3%: more petroleum but less textile & apparel 🛑Mining -0.7% ✅Utilities 2.6% 🥶

« In an important break with the US, which has in effect blocked imports of Chinese EVs using high tariffs and restrictions, Canada on Friday agreed to accept imports of 49,000 Chinese EVs with a 6.1% tariff, down from 100% » www.ft.com/content/9eef...

Powell Investigation Upends Final Stretch of Fed Chair Contest

It don't matter how you slice it, wage growth is pretty much back to "normal" Chart via @atlantafed.org

US Initial claims for #unemployment fell back in week-ended January 10, 2026. Excluding the Thanksgiving quirk, this is the lowest level since Jan 2024. 📉Claims: 198k (-9k) 📉4-wk avg: 205k (-7k)

« Foreign student enrollment at US universities fell this fall for the first time in three years after immigration clamp down… decline was driven by graduate student programs, where enrollment fell by 6% » www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Exclusive: President Trump told Reuters he has no plans to fire Jerome Powell despite a Justice Department criminal investigation into the Federal Reserve chair, but it was 'too early' to say what he would ultimately do reut.rs/49BNHTr

China’s exports ended last year with a growth spurt and sent its trade surplus to a record $1.2 trillion in 2025, extending a boom that’s seen factories escape Donald Trump’s tariffs by making deeper inroads into markets beyond the US. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The economic toll of Trump’s policies will soon be visible writes @adamposen.bsky.social @piie.com www.bloomberg.com/news/article...