🔻Job finding expectations has plunged in recent months -- mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost. ❗️Now at lowest since pandemic and 2014 before that.

US @newyorkfed.bsky.social inflation expectations fell slightly in October ➡️3.2%: 1-year-ahead (-0.2pt) ➡️3.0%: 3-year ahead (flat) ➡️3.0%: 5-year ahead (flat) ⚠️Transitory upward pressure from #tariffs on #inflation expectations, but no surge ⚠️More robust than volatile UMich inflation expectations

While the report is concerning, I’d caution against assuming that these historically low sentiment readings will translate into meaningfully weaker consumer spending. Sentiment today isn’t comparable to the levels seen during COVID or the Global Financial Crisis.

⛔️UMich Consumer #Sentiment fell to near-record low in November ⚠️Concerns high prices and jobs, income prospects & government shutdown cloud the outlook across age, income, and political affiliation 🔻Sentiment -6.2% 🔻Current Conditions -10.8% 🔻Expectations -2.6%

⚠️ @us-dot.bsky.social Secretary Duffy & FAA Administrator Bedford announced that the Trump administration would be cutting 10% of flights at 40 "high impact" airports... Airlines expected to cut at least 4% of Friday's flights & ramp up to 10% next week. www.cbsnews.com/live-updates...

I feel oddly empty — the second straight jobs report that isn’t being released...

US @newyorkfed.bsky.social Household Debt & Credit Report for Q3 '25 1⃣ Delinquency rate up marginally to 4.5% 2⃣ New 30-day delinquencies stable 3⃣ New 90-day delinquencies stable for auto loans, credit cards & mortgages 4⃣ Student loan delinquency transition rising but stock stable

Happy Holidays 🎄 www.wsj.com/us-news/faa-...

🤯I see K-shapes everywhere... 📉Large firms are still expanding their workforce but small and mid-sized businesses having been reducing employment in 5 out of the last 6 months

🚨 Oof! Challenger, Gray & Christmas: 153k #job cut announcements in October 🔺+183% m/m 🔺+175% y/y 🛑Highest October since 2003 🛑Highest YTD (1.1mn) since 2020 ⚠️Tech & warehousing led the job cuts ❓AI adoption, softening consumer & corporate spending, and rising costs

🚨Bank of England holds rate at 4% ⚖️ Vote 5-4 ▶️"CPI inflation judged to have peaked" ▶️"Progress on underlying disinflation continues" ▶️"Supported by still restrictive monetary policy" ▶️"Subdued economic growth & building labor market slack" ▶️"Risks are now more balanced"

CHIEF JUSTICE ROBERTS: The emergency authorization is “being used for a power to impose tariffs on any product from any country in any amount for any length of time.” That “seems to be a misfit.” @wsj.com #IEEFA www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

US #Services activity rebounds in October, but employment is contracting, costs are rising & backlogs look somber ✅ISM Services 52.4 (🔼2.4pt) ✅Activity 54.3 (🔼4.4pt) ✅New Orders 56.2 (🔼5.8pt) ⛔️Employment 48.2 (🔼1.0pt) ⛔️Backlogs 40.8 (🔻6.8pt) 🔥Inflation 70 (🔺0.6pt)

📈Soft private sector employment: +42k via ADP in October ⚠️Not a guide to nonfarm payrolls Key insights: ✅First gain since July 🟠3-month average only +3k 🔻Job losses for small & med-sided biz ✅Construction, trade, finance, healthcare/edu 🔻Manufacturing, leisure, professional & biz services, info

Lovely morning run in D.C.

Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill was elected governor of New Jersey Tuesday, the Associated Press projected, defeating Republican Jack Ciattarelli to retain her party's stronghold on the state. www.wsj.com/livecoverage...

Zohran Mamdani has won New York City’s mayoral race, cementing the Democratic socialist’s meteoric rise in the epicenter of global capitalism and making him the first Muslim to lead America's most populous city. The 34-year-old defeated Independent candidate Andrew Cuomo www.wsj.com/livecoverage...

😬 Major housing affordability crisis “The share of first-time home buyers dropped to a record low of 21%, while the typical age of first-time buyers climbed to an all-time high of 40 years, according to the National Association of REALTORS®” www.nar.realtor/newsroom/fir...

Democrat Abigail Spanberger has been elected as Virginia's next governor, the @apnews.com projected, defeating Republican Winsome Earle-Sears. This win returns the state to Democratic leadership after 4 years under a Republican governor. She will become the state’s first female governor.

New: The Trump admin is wielding the possibility that parts of the economy are in a recession in an attempt to raise pressure on the Fed to cut rates. The hope is that the central bank will bear the blame for any downturn www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/u... @nytimes.com

👀Container shipping from China to the US is down about 40% since the start of October -- lowest since early 2024

‘Weekly US card spending data from Bank of America shows a sharp recent swoon in the national data and the lowest growth since this summer.’ www.ft.com/content/acbd... via @robarmstrong.bsky.social

US ISM #Manufacturing: Purchasing managers report "strained" business conditions & #tariffs stress ⛔️ISM Manufacturing 48.7 (🔻0.4pt) ⛔️New Orders 49.4 (🔼0.5pt) ⛔️Production 48.2 (🔻2.8pt) ⛔️Employment 46.0 (🔼0.7pt) ⛔️Backlogs 47.9 (🔼1.7pt) 🔥Inflation 58.0 (🔽3.9pt)

#Fed officials are planning to reduce the staff of its banking supervision arm by 30% by the end of next year, according to an internal memo seen by The Wall Street Journal www.wsj.com/economy/cent... via @WSJ

More home-purchase agreements are being scrapped around the country, reflecting a growing standoff between buyers and sellers in a largely stalled housing market www.wsj.com/economy/hous... via @WSJ

Claims: 1/ We now have new initial claims data (week ended 10/25) from most geos (ex. AZ, MA, DC & VI). If my math is right, regular initial claims (no federal workers!) were, at 219K, almost exactly at the same level as they were in 2024 and 2023.

Kansas City Fed Schmid: "I don't think a 25bps reduction in the policy rate do much to address stresses in the labor market that more likely than not arise from structural changes in tech & demographics.. but could have longer-lasting effects on inflation" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

In the absence of official payrolls statistics, the ADP weekly NER pulse shows a possible mild upturn in employment. The NER weekly pulse is trending around +57k for the month of October, following a 32k drop in the monthly NER September.

♟️ My October @linkedin.com Newsletter: "The 5️⃣ macro questions on every leader’s mind" Is the US economy on solid footing? Is the government shutdown just a speed bump? What does the IMF forecast signal for global growth? What's up with gold? An AI bubble? www.linkedin.com/posts/gregor...

Powell is simply incorrect that Indeed job postings show no further decline in labor demand--they have continued dropping steadily through last week (Oct 24)

🚨#Fed Chair #Powell press conference "In the Committee's discussions at this meeting, there were strongly differing views about how to proceed in December. A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a forgone conclusion. Far from it."

🚨#Fed "Blindfolded balancing act" 1️⃣ #FOMC cuts 25bps to 3.75-4.0% 2️⃣Job gains "slowed" & inflation "moved up" 3️⃣Downside risks to employment "rose" 4️⃣Risk management rate cut: "in light of shift in balance of risks" 5️⃣Miran dissents for 50bp; Schmid for hold 6️⃣Balance sheet QT ends Dec 1

A few comments on this legendary, high quality data series: 1/ It's experienced residual seasonality the last few years, I don't find the Oct rebound to be reassuring. 2/ It's been too pessimistic recently relative to the hard labor market data. [Chart courtesy of @gregdaco.bsky.social ]

Nvidia is on track to become the first $5 trillion company as CEO Jensen Huang’s spree of deals around the world propels the AI trade to new heights www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Stat of the day: yesterday was the worst breadth day for the S&P 500 on an up day since at least 1990. 294 more stocks dropped than rose. Breadth of -200 or worse on an up day has taken place 10 prior times before yesterday, eight of them in the past two years. Others: Feb 2000, Jul 2015.

👀UPS said it has reduced its management workforce by about 14,000 positions so far this year and its operational workforce by 34,000 positions www.wsj.com/business/log... via @wsj.com

Fed’s Policy Path Looks More Treacherous as Shutdown Delays Critical Data www.nytimes.com/2025/10/28/b...

The ADP launches a weekly National Employment Report (NER) Pulse. For the four weeks ending Oct 11, the NER pulse shows that private employers added an average of 14,250 jobs per week after 2 months of contraction in August and September. www.adpresearch.com/meeting-the-...

Not feeling great! The Conference Board consumer confidence index fell 1.0pt to 94.6 in Oct: 14% below Dec 2024. 🔼Present situation: +1.8pt to 129.3 🔻Expectations: -2.9pt to 71.5 ⚠️Confidence levels depressed by weak job & income prospects. Younger & lower income most depressed.

President Donald Trump hailed the US’s alliance with Japan, reaffirming ties with a longstanding partner and praising new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on her plans to ratchet up defense spending as the pair met in Tokyo www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

⚠️Major #shutdown risk! ▶️The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) is due to run out of money Nov 1 amid the #governmentshutdown ▶️42 million low-income families would lose food aid ▶️SNAP food aid benefits have never lapsed in modern history www.politico.com/live-updates...

The “Prices Up/Volume Flat” economy rolls on. 🇺🇸 @mikezaccardi.bsky.social @gregdaco.bsky.social

🍂 October 2025 US Executive Briefing by @EY_Parthenon @EY_US 🛣️ A bifurcated US economy 💪 Growth rests on affluent consumers, #AI investment, and asset gains — a fragile trio as #tariffs, tighter #immigration, and the #shutdown bite. www.linkedin.com/posts/gregor...

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday confirmed the names of five finalists to succeed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell: Fed governor Waller, Bowman, former Fed Governor Warsh, White House NEC Director Hassett and BlackRock Inc. executive Rieder. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

« After two days of talks in Malaysia wrapped up Sunday, a Chinese official said the two sides reached a preliminary consensus on topics including export controls, fentanyl and shipping levies. » www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

While short-term #inflation dynamics have firmed because of tariffs, the process has remained gradual and uneven, and partially offset by cooling shelter cost inflation