Good morning. Alternative labor market data suggest further deterioration. What we’ve learned over the past two months about the American labor market. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/falling-dema...

Good morning. In an era where low rates, liquidity & leverage rules it’s little surprise we have K-shaped loan market. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

US ISM Service Sector prices paid hit three year high. Demand for services across the economy-especially from upper end households is driving service-based inflation. #Econ #EconSky

Affordability: lots of talk on this idea today. Sometimes it’s better to keep it simple. Affordability means more supply not less. Whether it be housing or energy a steady growth in supply and diversification of resources is the way. #Econ #EconSky

My thoughts on a slowing economy & the blame game in DC via the New York Times: Trump Aides Raise Recession Fears, and Point Fingers at the Fed. #Econ #EconSky www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/u...

ADP Private Employment Survey: Affirms Modest Labor Market Growth Labor market growth continues to point to just enough job growth to keep labor market conditions stable-50,000 jobs per month is all that is needed given demographic changes and the constraint caused by immigration policy-yet.

US ADP private sector employment estimate shows a 42K gain with service providing firms adding 33K and goods producing firms added 10K. However, small firms cut 10K-the third straight month of losses, medium sized firms cut 21K from its workforce & large firms added 73K on the month. #Econ #EconSky

Good morning. Global shipping costs decline as Chinese shipments to the US dropped off in October. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

Good morning. My thoughts on the end of large corporations hoarding of labor-Why Companies Are No Longer Hanging On to Employees. #Econ #EconSky www.wsj.com/economy/jobs...

Winning takes talent. To repeat demands character. www.nytimes.com/athletic/677...

Good morning. I’m spending today in the data obsessing over the sequencing of the ⁦‪@Dodgers‬⁩ pitching tonight in the same manner normally reserved for American monetary policy; How the ‘Ohtani Rule’ Could Decide Game 7 of the World Series www.wsj.com/sports/baseb...

Two best words in the sports lexicon: Game 7 Go @Dodgers!!

Happy Halloween

Good morning. As the government shutdown is about to enter one month risk to the economic outlook is rising. My discussion with ⁦‪@CNN‬⁩ on that risk. #Econ #EconSky www.cnn.com/2025/10/31/e...

Good morning. My thoughts on the end of quantitative tightening to address liquidity strains across financial markets. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

Dualling Mandates at the FOMC: As one could observe inside the September FOMC dot plot and summary of economic projections the committee is split around which portion of the dual mandate should receive policy preference: maximum sustainable employment or price stability? #econ #econsky

The FOMC reduced its federal funds policy rate by twenty-five basis points to a range between 3.75% and 4% while simultaneously announcing an end to its runoff of its $6.58 trillion balance sheet by December 1, 2025, and cutting the interest rate paid on excess reserves from 4.15% to 3.9%. #econ

My preview of today’s FOMC policy decision where I expect a 25 basis point rate cut to the federal funds policy rate, an end to the Fed’s quantitative tightening program & a cut in interest paid on reserve balances from 4.15% to 3.90%. #Econ #EconSky realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

Good morning. My look at slowing American wage growth. #Econ #Econsky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

Good morning. Falling bond yields amidst modest growth & economic imbalances. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

That was not sport. That was Aeschylus. That was Tolstoy. That was Faulkner. Dodgers triumphant. Koufax approved.

Good morning. I’m looking for a 25-basis point rate cut, and end to quantitative tightening & a lively press conference at the ⁦‪@federalreserve‬⁩ policy meeting. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

With inflation rising at a 3% over the past year & 3.6% annualized pace over the past three months allowing SNAP or what some call food stamps on 11/1 to end due to the government shutdown meets the definition of bad timing. #Econ #EconSky realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

My note on the U.S. September CPI: A perfect K-shaped economic report. #Econ #EconSky realeconomy.rsmus.com/u-s-septembe...

US September CPI: A Perfect K-Shaped Economic Report In many ways the U.S. September CPI is the perfect K-Shaped economic report. It gives cover to the Fed to cut in October & December as the monthly pace of inflation eased & is up 3% from a year ago. That is a good development. #Econ #EconSky

US September CPI: In many ways it’s the perfect K-Shaped economic report. It gives cover to the Fed to cut in October & December as the monthly pace of inflation eased a bit and is up 3% from a year ago. #Econ #EconSky

Please join me on @YahooFinance at 7:30 AM ET to discuss the all important US September CPI with @juleshyman & @JonHilsenrath

Good morning. In the September CPI I expect monthly increases of 0.4% on the topline & 0.3% in the core both with upside risk & a 3.1% increase in both the topline & core from one year ago. #Econ #EconSky

“.. The American intervention to prop up the Argentinian peso has failed. Despite the United States intervening .., the Argentine peso lost 10% of its value in the first two weeks of October, pushing the overnight interest rate to 157%.” @joebrusuelas.bsky.social $ARGT

Ahead of the September CPI I expect monthly increases of 0.4% on the topline & 0.3% in the core both with upside risk & a 3.1% increase in both the topline & core from one year ago. Plus my discussion on what is driving inflation higher via ⁦‪@CNN‬⁩. #Econ #EconSky www.cnn.com/2025/10/23/e...

An overvalued Argentina peso looks set for a further depreciation, if not an outright devaluation, which creates a risk of large losses on capital put forward to prop up the peso by Washington. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

A look at the @RSMUSLLP Financial Conditions Index. It implies that financial conditions are not restrictive as the Fed gets ready to reduces is federal funds policy rate next week. #Econ #EconSky

Good morning. Our ⁦‪@RSMUSLLP‬⁩ Financial Conditions Index indicates a Federal Reserve rate cut is not without risk. Read on to find out why. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

Good morning. A look at the attractiveness of dollar denominated securities. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

Father of the year candidate right there. And if one was raised in the 1970’s this is what it was like with boomer parents. At least there’s not a pack of Marlborough’s & Corona is a superior produce to the nattie-lite that was popular at the ballpark back in the day

There is a special logic to exchange rate stabilization that almost always ends in devaluation. One can’t but come to the conclusion that on the other side of the election it’s devaluation that lies ahead. #Eco #EconSky

A look at trade tensions, the price of soybeans, subsidies & why it’s all not sustainable. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

As shutdown enters its 3rd week, expect it to impact the economy “in a nonlinear fashion. “.. missed paychecks, slower pace of business investment .. “.. our initial estimate of a 0.1% drag on GDP is now outdated, and we expect a 0.25% drag per week, or 1% per month.” @joebrusuelas.bsky.social

A good low rates, liquidity & leverage morning to all. It’s the holy trinity of new finance & investors are pulling back on risk this morning. #Econ #EconSky Global stocks slip on US regional bank jitters via @FT on.ft.com/46YmkD3 G

Good morning. This is the week the economic impact of the government shutdown goes non-linear. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

Good Evening

A word on why the central bank monetary transmission mechanism is resulting in a longer lag between rate cuts & positive impact on the real economy. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

Yields are on the rise in France today as political risk in Paris moves to the forefront of investor concern. The inability of the political actors across the G-7 to put their economies on a sustainable fiscal path is yielding a higher cost. #Econ #EconSky realeconomy.rsmus.com/the-rise-of-...

Argentina Bailout, Conditionality and Collateral: The U.S. verbal intervention to prop up an overvalued Argentinian peso-it needs at least a further 25% depreciation- has run its course & the peso is depreciating again. Yes, that means higher inflation in Argentina is inevitable. #Eco #EconSky

Good morning. A look at dollar dominance even as global investors hedge their exposure to the greenback. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

Good morning. The US government shutdown a risk to further deterioration in consumer confidence. Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

Getting ready to appear on @BloombergTV with @mattmiller1973 to discuss the US government shutdown and the sagging prospects of the American labor market. See you at 10:30AM ET.

Why are small & medium size firms reducing headcount: it’s policy uncertainty. Lack of clarity on the cost of doing business is now weighing heavy on hiring. It’s a rational response to a fog of uncertainty.

RSM: If the shutdown lasts into the BLS reference week (Oct 12-18), “furloughed workers would be counted as unemployed, which would send the unemployment rate higher, toward 4.5% to 4.7%.” @joebrusuelas.bsky.social

ADP Payroll Estimate: The internals indicate that small and medium size firms have stopped hiring. Small firms shed 40K jobs and medium sized firms let go of 20K individuals. Large firms hired 33K. By sector good produces let go of 3K and service producers 28K. #Econ #EconSky