My discussion via @ABCNewsLive on that robust Q3’25 GDP. What's behind the growth of the economy in the last quarter? - ABC News - abcnews.go.com/Business/vid... via @ABC #Econ #EconSky

All I ever wanted for Christmas was a set of $120 billion off balance sheet special purpose vehicles. Don’t @ me. I know you think this time it’s different. Happy Holidays Tech groups shift $120bn of AI data centre debt off balance sheets via @FT giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

The magic of live television from one’s home base. Please join me on @ABCNewsLive where we will discuss the US Q3’25 GDP report.

Please join me on @ABCNewsLive at 5:30 ET where I will discuss the robust 4.3% US Q3’25 GDP report.

One implied benefit-should the growth & employment data not see significant revisions-is that robust 4.3% Q3’25 GDP growth amid soft jobs growth is that productivity is improving. That’s the elixir that bolsters overall living standards. And that is encouraging. #Econ #EconSky

My take on the Q3’25 GDP-The American Economy is a Dynamic & Resilient Beast Even as Job Creation Slows. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/american-eco...

US Q3'25 GDP: composition of growth is key here. Consumption was responsible for 55% of growth and AI related consumption just under 14% of overall economic activity. #Econ #EconSky

US Q3'25 GDP: Blowout topline growth of 4.3%, real final private demand at 3%, household consumption at 3.8%. Yet that strong growth only generated an average of 51K new jobs per month during the quarter. #Econ #EconSky

Good morning. Q3’25 GDP on deck this morning. Look for a discussion of a decoupling between a strong growth number & weak hiring as AI related capex and upper end consumption drive growth

My note on the questionable ideas around resetting the Fed balance sheet to pre GFC levels and seasonal reserve demand management. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

Good morning. Please join me on @cnni at 9:30 AM ET where I will discuss the condition of the US economy.

A good triple witching morning to all the capital markets professionals out there. $7.1 trillion in expiring options today: When "triple witching" day comes to the market. #Econ #EconSky www.axios.com/2025/12/19/s... #axiosmarkets

US November CPI: in case one wonders why economists almost universally considered it flawed please read on. In my estimation the BLS made an error in judgment and it resulted in understating the pace of inflation.

Dude that was one flawed report. Take a read at what is undeniably the strangest CPI report in my career arc. Btw, it’s ok to say we just don’t know & need more data to make sound policy & investment judgements. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/that-novembe...

November US CPI: a look at the detail on a year ago basis provides insight into why Americans perceptions of an affordability crisis is real. #Econ #EconSky

Reality Check: tariff revenue has increased notably this year. Since April 2025 total revenues collected are $213.4 billion and is $236.2 billion January through November. #Econ #EconSky

One source of public discontent with the American economy is the growing spread between productivity & wages. Prosperity in the upper spur of the K-shaped economy is not trickling down to those below. It’s shaping perceptions of a growing affordability crisis realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

Good morning. As hiring stalls out it might be a good idea to question why? The long tails of adverse shocks via trade & immigration policy impacting demand & supply, as well as the longest government shutdown in history imply all roads lead to Washington. #Econ #EconSky www.wsj.com/economy/jobs...

My instant reaction to the October/November jobs report via ⁦‪@YahooFinance‬⁩ ⁦‪@juleshyman‬⁩ #Econ #EconSky finance.yahoo.com/video/jobs-r...

My discussion with ⁦‪@CNN‬⁩ on how today’s American Jobs Report does not bode well for the affordability crisis that has soured the public on the US economy. #Econ #EconSky www.cnn.com/2025/12/16/e...

US Jobs Report: If you are not confused, you are not paying attention. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/the-jobs-dat...

Good morning! I will be on @YahooFinance at 8:30AM to discus the publication of the October & November US Jobs Report. Tune in because it’s going to set the tone for the close of the year in economics & finance. #Econ #EconSky

Amid the affordability crisis that has soured Americans on the economy the November CPI report will show a 0.3% monthly increase & a 3% advance from one year ago. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

One clear way of measuring excessive government spending is by looking at the so-called primary deficit, which is the federal government’s fiscal balance excluding interest payments on existing debt. #Econ #EconSky

US Initial Jobless Claims: Don’t be fooled by seasonal head fakes. It’s more noise than signal. The time of year one gets big seasonal swings in both directions. Especially large moves in California & Texas over the past two reporting periods. #Eco #EconSky

Fed $40bln reserve management purchases: this is not QE. It’s intended to meet seasonal reserve & tax season needs. It amounts to roughly 0.6% of the balance sheet or just over 7% on an annualized basis. #Econ #EconSky

A good low rates, liquidity & leverage morning to all. For those that think this is QE think again. It’s simple reserve management: Fed to launch $40bn debt-buying scheme after money market strains via ⁦‪@FT‬⁩ #Econ #EconSky giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

The Fed made a fairly big upgrade to the GDP estimate in 2026 & expects the unemployment rate to modestly decline. It’s begs the question why even cut at all given the expansionary fiscal policy in train next year. If productivity does not improve this will in retrospect look like a policy error.

A very hawkish rate cut based on the statement and the summary of economic projections. The FOMC delivered a third consecutive 25 basis point rate cut at its December policy meeting. There were dissents with Miran wanting a 50bps cut while Schmid & Goolsbee wanted no rate change. #Econ #EconSky

Today’s Fed meeting is not the only major central bank decision due this month. The Bank of Japan is likely to lift its policy rate as it cautiously normalizes policy & that will be a global event due to the global importance of the carry trade. realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

Good morning. My discussion via ⁦‪@ABCNewsLive‬⁩ with ⁦‪@eschulze‬⁩ on the American affordability crisis & my expectation on today’s ⁦‪⁦‪@federalreserve‬⁩ policy decision. #Econ #EconSky Source: ABC News abcnews.go.com/Business/vid...

Will be appearing on @ABCNewsLive with @eschulze at 5:30 PM ET to talk about the American affordability crisis that currently defines the economy.

Good afternoon. My preview of the American October & November jobs report. #econ #econsky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/october-and-...

A good automation & augmentation morning from Washington DC where one would think the good folks running this country might be interested in such developments: State of AI: life in 2030 via ⁦‪@FT‬⁩ #Econ #EconSky giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... The State of AI: life in 2030

Good morning. I’m expecting multiple dissents at the FOMC policy meeting as the fog lifts & the committee cuts rates. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/fomc-preview...

My FOMC preview. I expect a 25bps rate cut & multiple dissents as the Fed factions attempt to look through the fog. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/fomc-preview...

My discussion with @nytimes on the condition of the median American household heading into the holiday season: Consumer Prices Rose Slightly in September www.nytimes.com/2025/12/05/b... via @NYTimes

For those looking closely at PCE inflation here is the data on the PCE supercore which is up 3.259% from one year ago and is up 1pp above is pre pandemic average. This is what some of the hawks on the FOMC focus on when making policy judgements. #Econ #EconSky

Good morning. Fresh off a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India the Indian Rupee is likely to depreciate further. In addition it’s far past time for further liberalization of the Indian currency regime. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

Winter of discontent, real wages and affordability. The discussion around affordability from our point of view is a function of supply and time. #Econ #EconSky

Real wages (after inflation) were growing at 2.0% last year. Now it’s 0.8% — “clearly playing into what the majority of American households would define as an affordability crisis.” @joebrusuelas.bsky.social

Good morning. My take on affordability which is a function of supply and time. Unfortunately, supply side policies to facilitate lower prices are not in the cards anytime soon. #Econ #EconSky realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

Its a K shaped economy and labor market as the Nov ADP private payroll estimate indicated a 32K decline in hiring. #Econ #EconSky

Good morning. My note on why the recent correction in equity values has likely run its course. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

Good morning. A look at tge ⁦‪@RSMUSLLP‬⁩ US Financial Conditions Index which remans accommodative to growth amid consideration of risk among investors. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

Want to wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving…except that turkey. He has got to go. #Econ #EconSky #Thanksgiving.

US September retail sales arrive soft. Up 0.2% m/m in the topline with the control group that feeds into GDP declining 0.1%. September PPI rises 2.7% y/y as wholesale inflation continues to rise. #Econ #EconSky

Good morning. My 2026 US Economic Outlook. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/rsms-u-s-out...

My thoughts on the US jobs market, inflation & the path of Fed policy via ⁦‪@CNNConnect‬⁩ the World - Joe Brusuelas/ CTW. #Econ #EconSky video.snapstream.net/Play/3XYzC7g...

Please join me at 9:30 AM ET/2:30PM BT & 6:30PM in Dubai on @cnni where I will discuss the day in the global economy with @BeckyCNN