Terrific note via the @WSJ on the sustained disconnect between the spot price for delivery and paper price of Brent crude. As that last barrel shipped on Feb 28 arrives we will find out What Is the Real Price for a Barrel of Oil? $133 or $99. #Econ #EconSky www.wsj.com/finance/comm...

The last of the energy exports that shipped out on February 28 from the Persian Gulf will arrive in North America later this week. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

BRUSUELAS: “.. Six weeks into the attacks on energy facilities in the Middle East, and on top of the obvious increases in the cost of food and gasoline, consumers now expect inflation to increase from 3.3% to 4.8% over the next 12 months.” @joebrusuelas.bsky.social #UMich

Good morning. When the American public speaks it might be a good idea to pay attention. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

West Texas Intermediate up 9% in early Asian session to $105.39.

Risk off in early trading with dollar up along with oil as equity futures down. Covered this in my morning note on the cost of ceasefire talks breaking down. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

Good morning. A special Sunday morning note on the cost of failed ceasefire talks. The intersection between economics, finance, commodities & geopolitical security is about to get red hot. Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

The two data points that matter as ceasefire negotiations continue. Ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz & the spot price for physical delivery or dated Brent crude. #Econ #EconSky

Interested in what to expect from a Kevin Warsh led Fed? My view is included among many of me peers in this terrific article via ⁦‪@markets‬⁩ ⁦‪@business‬⁩ ⁦‪@TheTerminal‬⁩ that is well worth your time. #Econ #EconSky www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

It’s good that we all have something to cheer for that involves a positive aspirational vision of humanity.

As we head into the ceasefire talks over the weekend here is the price signal that is paramount as the Strait of Hormuz remains open only to Iranian approved transport. Dated Brent crude or the spot price for physical delivery closed for the week at $125.88 compared with the paper price of $94.14.

Fuel oil jumped 30.7% in March & is up 44.2% from one year ago. While the focus will be on the 39% increase in the cost of retail gasoline the jump in fuel oil cost should not be overlooked. #Econ #EconSky

March CPI: a look at the year ago increase in energy costs per your request. Not real wage growth once adjusted for the energy shock slowed from 1.4% to 0.3% in March. I trust you can do the math.

March CPI: If one wants to see where the cost of war comes home it is in the energy complex inside the March CPI. That 30.7% increase in fuel oil and large double digit increases across the complex in addition to that 21.2% jump in gasoline prices. #Econ #EconSky

US March CPI: the increase in inflation should be understood as a movement in two parts. The March data captured the initial shock, but all parties should expect further increases in April…..

Looking forward to appearing on @cnni @CNN at 6:20 PM ET to discuss the day in economics & finance.

The national average price of a gallon of unleaded increased to $4.17 which is up $1.19 per gallon compared to pre war pricing. I just paid $4.799 for or $72.72 for 15.153 gallons just before 10:30 AM in Austin, Texas. #Econ #EconSky

Good morning. Wars always result in hard lessons learned. This one will be no different. #Econ #EconSky realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

February PCE Price Index, Income and Spending: Not a Flattering Portrait of an Economy on the Edge of War #Econ #EconSky

FOMC Minutes: Let me translate: Fed acknowledges reality of oil shock. It’s not going to cut or hike rates anytime soon. Patience is the policy path until we get an idea on the duration & direction of unstable ceasefire and war. #Econ #EconSky

Price Signal: large decline of 16.75 in Brent & 18% in WTI perfectly captures volatility that has characterized energy and commodity prices since the start of the war. #Econ #EconSky

I agree: let’s give peace a chance. One of the bottom line barometers is going to be traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. It will take days, if not weeks to build confidence, re-establish insurance and arrange for escorts to get the flow of oil & energy out of the Gulf. #Econ #EconSky

Good morning. Two inflation reports, one economy. Source: The Real Economy Blog. #Econ #EconSky realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

Futures on West Texas Intermediate down 17% on announcement of two week ceasefire agreement. Unambiguous good news. www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04...

Dated Brent crude, the spot price for physical delivery increased to $144.46 today compared to the paper price of $110.09. #Econ #EconSky

My discussion with @BeckyCNN on the condition of the US economy and recession probabilities as a historic oil & energy shock cascades across the global economic landscape. #Econ #EconSky Connect the World - Joe Brusuelas video.snapstream.net/Play/3QidASu...

I’m looking forward to appearing on @CNNConnect at 9:30AM ET to discuss the US & global economic outlooks with @BeckyCNN on what may be a monumental day.

Good morning. Brent crude is the global anchor of price discovery in oil markets. A quick look at the most important price signal on a potentially monumental day. Source: The Real Economy Blog #Econ #EconSky realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

The US economy has absorbed the shock caused by the first month of the war in relatively good shape. Both the ISM Manufacturing & Services surveys imply modest to solid expansion through the first month of the war. #Econ #EconSky

One of the policy mistakes by the Fed during the pandemic era was ignoring public & short term inflation expectations. It’s critical that error not be repeated during the current crisis. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

Per request from a friend in Europe. Take a look at the impact of the global energy crisis in Italy as jet fuel supply grows tight. Great data visualization via our colleagues @TheTerminal

From market-based pricing to rationing. While it is not my preference on how to allocate scarce resources under current conditions given the supply constrain due to the war it is the rational response in many developing and developed economies. #Econ #EconSky

This week we get two inflation reports: the February PCE which will provide the final pre-war report which will show the third consecutive 0.4% monthly increase in core pricing & the March CPI which will likely reflect a 1% monthly increase in inflation following the start of the war.

When the Asian market opens this evening as well as the EU/UK market tomorrow morning the price signal one wants to observe is dated Brent Crude which increased to $141.26 at the close last week. #Econ #EconSky

New York, New York.

US Jobs Report & Wage Growth. Wages grew by 0.2% in the month, which resulted in a 3.5% increase from one year ago. Under normal conditions this would be a point of celebration for forward looking central bankers. However, the war in the Middle East will disrupt that. #Econ #Econ

US March Jobs Report: Hiring sharply rebounded in March as 178,000 new jobs were created while the unemployment rate declined to 4.3% (4.256% taken to three digits). Wages grew by 0.2% on the month which resulted in a 3.5% increase from one year ago. #Econ #EconSky

I expect an increase of 60k in the March US Jobs report, a 4.4% unemployment rate, a 0.4% increase in average hourly earnings which should result in a 3.7% year ago increase. #Econ #EconSky www.cnn.com/2026/04/02/e...

This market is neither investable nor tradeable due to headline risk, rumor & policy unpredictability. Lord knows the market would be long oil but because of a belief in TACO one simply can’t.

It would appear most Americans & many capital market professionals are unaware what’s happening beyond the friendly confines of North America. Take a read. It’s worthy of your time. #Econ #EconSky The global wave of energy rationing via @FT giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

From supply shock to demand destruction: seven channels & three paths. #Econ #EconSky

Good morning. The hopium hangover this morning among investors that took that headfake on the end of the war is nasty. Futures down sharply & oil back to near $110 per barrel in both WTI & Brent.

April Is The Cruelest Month. Time is not on the side of the American economy. Seven channels of demand destruction & three potential paths for business & policymakers to consider another energy shock turns into a drag on demand. #Econ #EconSky realeconomy.rsmus.com/american-dem...

Energy shocks have been all too frequent over the past couple of decades. A ceasefire if Hormuz opens is not what the market priced in yesterday. Too much hopium in this market for my taste.

Our US March jobs report preview. I expect an increase of 60K and an unemployment rate of 4.4%. Look for a 0.4% increase in average hourly earnings which should translate to a 3.7% year ago increase. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

A good inflection point morning to all. Source: The Real Economy Blog. #Econ #EconSky realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

For those wondering what all the fuss over jet fuel prices is about. I indexed it to 100 on day zero of the war to create a realistic comparison across the US, Europe and Asia. For Europe and Asia it's worse than what happened following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. #Econ #EconSky

Mi análisis sobre la dirección de la economía a raíz del impacto petrolero que la está afectando actualmente. Gasolina en $4: cómo afectará a los Estados Unidos. #Econ #EconSky laopinion.com/2026/03/31/g...

American Demand Destruction: We identified seven channels through which this works. Demand destruction is a fluid process that impacts the economy with varying time lags. #Econ #EconSky

American Demand Destruction: The seven channels that compound to threaten US growth. With the price of oil above $100 & gasoline above $4 per gallon look at the channels through which demand destruction works. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/american-dem...