We published an update of our financial conditions index this morning which implies that the Fed’s policy rate is not restrictive at the current time. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

Good morning. The Fed is cutting rates as financial conditions imply growing risk tolerance which creates risk of inflation moving further away from the 2% target. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

Good morning. A look at the rise of private label data, employment & public policy. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/the-rise-of-...

My assessment of today’s FOMC policy decision. Fed cuts its policy rate a quarter point amid growing tension. #Econ #EconSky realeconomy.rsmus.com/fed-cuts-its...

FOMC Policy Decision: The button down and boring by design world of American central banking was upended as the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate by twenty-five basis points amidst a dissent by new Fed Governor Miran who dissented in favor a 50-basis point cut. #Econ #EconSky

My thoughts on the upcoming FOMC policy decision via ⁦‪@BeckyCNN‬⁩ ⁦‪⁦‪@CNNConnect‬⁩ the World ⁦‪⁦‪@cnni‬⁩ featuring a discussion on yield curve control. #Econ #EconSky video.snapstream.net/Play/9ThMrBv...

The button down & boring by design world of the ⁦‪@federalreserve‬⁩ is going to be anything but that. This week’s Fed meeting is shaping up to be the strangest in years—and that’s not even counting the discussions about how much to cut rates. #Econ #EconSky www.wsj.com/economy/cent...

“.. Since 1979, .. a collapse in sales of heavy trucks has coincided with recessions. The recent downturn in heavy truck sales, which started in 2023, should be a concern for policymakers.” @joebrusuelas.bsky.social

Please join me at 9AM ET/2PM GMT on @cnni with @BeckyCNN for a discussion of today’s @federalreserve policy decision as the Fed prepares to cut rates into rising inflation.

Good morning. Ahead of today’s FOMC policy decision a look at the real economy via heavy truck sales. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

US Data: Strong retail sales indicative of the slow hire, slow fire economy & a robust back to school shopping season. It's why on the back of a series of soft jobs reports jumping to recession calls is simply premature. This is a constructive development & supports solid, if unspectacular Q3'25.

Good morning. Ever wonder why so much noise is made of a 25 basis point cut in rates? Low rates, liquidity & leverage are the holy trinity of new finance. #Econ #EconSky realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

My look ahead at the upcoming FOMC policy decision. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

“.. Stagflation is the Story as Discretionary Service Prices Surge. .. “.. this strongly implies that the Fed should proceed cautiously in signaling three consecutive rate cuts this year, especially given the near-term arrival of expansionary fiscal policy ..” @joebrusuelas.bsky.social

US August CPI: Stagflation continues to be the primary narrative underscoring the American economy. It has been four decades since Americans experienced stagflation.

US August CPI: top line inflation comes in hot at 0.4% & core up 0.3% on the month which results in a year ago increase of 2.9% & 3.1% respectively. Inflation adjusted hourly earnings slow to a 0.7% growth you from 1.7% previously.

Good morning. Please join me in @YahooFinance at 8:30AM ET to discuss the August US Consumer Price Index. I’m looking at discretionary services which expect to arrive hot and drive core CPI.

Good morning. A thought or two about entrenched inflation expectations and does the Fed have the credibility to look through tariff induced one time increase in the price level? #Econ #EconSky #Inflation Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/inflation-ex...

I will be appearing on @ABC @ABCNewsLive in the bloc around 4:10PM ET & the A bloc just after 6PM ET to discuss the day in economics & finance as well as that downward revision of 911K jobs to the hiring data between April 2024 & March 2025.

Good afternoon. My note on the downward revision of 911K on the initial estimate of job gains between April 2024 & March 2025. The one silver lining is that productivity likely increased at a faster pace. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/bls-revision...

A look at the BLS Benchmark Revision over the past twenty-five years. In a 163 million labor force in the context of a $30 trillion economy the 911K downward revision smoothed out over a year is not that large.

BLS Preliminary Benchmark-the final estimate including monthly will be published in January- indicated a net decline of 911,000 jobs between April 2024 to March 2025. The labor market was far weaker through the end of the year. In one way it vindicates the Fed 100bps of rate cuts last year.

Good morning. A look at the US Treasury buyback activity. #Eco #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

Good morning. Domestic oil production at risk as the price fall below the prevailing breakeven for most producers. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

Fiscal credibility is just as important as central bank credibility. Erosion in the credibility of fiscal authorities is driving yields higher. The bond vigilantes will keep on circling via ⁦‪@FT‬⁩ #Econ #EconSky on.ft.com/4pcptG8

Good morning. This Tuesday at 10AM ET the BLS benchmark revision to the establishment survey will be published for the period April 2024 & March 2025. We think it should show around 40k to 50K less jobs created per month or between 500,000 & 600,000 during that timeframe. #Econ #EconSky

Good morning. The more one looks at the data beneath the topline the more one gets the sense about the deteriorating condition in demand for higher paying, good producing workers. My discussion on the American labor market via ABC News - abcnews.go.com/Business/vid... via @ABC #Econ #EconSky

My discussion via @ABC on the US August jobs report- ABC News - abcnews.go.com/Business/vid... via @ABC #Econ #EconSky

I’m scheduled to appear on @ABCNewsLive at 4PM ET to discuss the lackluster US August Jobs Report and its implications for the broader economy & policy. #Econ #EconSky

My note on the weak US Jobs Report that showed a gain of 22K and once one accounts for downward revisions resulted in a total change in employment of 1K. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/labor-market...

US Jobs Report: weak report featuring a 22K in August in addition to a downward revision of -21K over the past two months. Total change in employment of 1K. 4.3% unemployment rate. We are getting a September rate cute. #Econ #EconSky

Fresh from the BLS website…I trust they will have this fixed momentarily

Good morning. I expect a 45K increase in the US jobs report this morning. I expect it’s a function of both cyclical factors such as policy uncertainty driven by trade & immigration policy as well a structural demographic factors that’s behind sagging labor demand & diminishing labor supply. #Econ

Holding the labor force participation rate constant to its 2023-2024 average results in a 4.85% unemployment rate vs the current reading of 4.24%. This tends to support arguments for a rare cut at the Fed. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

My thoughts on the upcoming US jobs report and its impact on Fed interest rate policy is ⁦‪@CNN‬⁩. #Econ #EconSky www.cnn.com/2025/09/04/e...

ADP estimate of private sector employment at 54K down from 104 previously. This is in line with the @RSMUSLLP forecast of 45K for the US August Jobs Report.

Good morning. My preview of the US August Jobs Report where I expect an increase of 45,000 in the monthly estimate of hiring. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

Good morning. Investors are pushing up long term yields as the demand more to compensate for the risk of holding long dated bonds amidst a growing sense of stagflation. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

Good morning. A look at inflation persistence, the Fed & expansionary fiscal policy to kickoff a major week in the US economy. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/inflation-pe...

One interesting thing here: if SCOTUS were to uphold the ruling it would set up for a large refund which would act as a tax cut for domestic firms that have paid the import taxes. My back of the envelope is that it could be as large as $400 billion. #Econ #EconSky www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

US August PCE Inflation: Policy Implications All calls on estimating the optimal Fed funds policy rate are judgement calls. I prefer to start with a range of models to make that judgement. Here is a transparent look at how I approach that. #Econ #EconSky

US August Income, Spending and PCE Inflation: The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator increased 2.6% (2.596% vs. 2.565% in June) in July implying an increasingly difficult policy decision on whether to cut interest rates at its September 17, 2025 meeting. #Econ #EconSky

Good morning. We get the August US PCE this morning. I expect a 0.2% m/m rise & 0.3% advance in the core which translates to a 2.7% y/y increase in the topline & 2.9% in the core. realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

Good morning. A terrific long read ahead of a long holiday weekend on the perils of wage & price controls drawn from the post Black Death UK. One thing I love about Bluesky is people on this site read & think. This is worthy of your time. www.ageofinvention.xyz/p/age-of-inv...

Good morning. Lots of loose & undisciplined talk of de-dollarization. A look at the repo market provides a solid structural reason why that is unlikely anytime soon. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

Good morning. A look at the perils of issuing more government short-term paper to finance growing deficits. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

Fed rate but probabilities at 84.8% for a 25bps rate cut at the September 17, 2025 FOMC meeting. We expect this to trail down as we get the PCE inflation data later this week and then in the run up to the US August Jobs Report on September 5.

Good morning. China’s caught in a deflationary trap of its own making that is not abating. #Econ #EconSky Source: The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

Memories of Summer 2024:Paris

Serious Question: if the US government takes a position in United Healthcare & then uses its financial depth to declare care for all can we call it a “public option” and just get on with it? The political realignment around economic populism is rife with irony. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/23/b...