It’s truly a loss today. First time since 1948, the government didn’t collect information on unemployment. www.youtube.com/watch?v=6isk...

Every month for the last 77 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has estimated Americans' unemployment rate This streak dies tomorrow Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months This blind spot will remain forever

The K-shaped economy is exactly what restrictive monetary policy looks like. While the Fed's goals are for the overall economy, its tool of interest rates affects financially constrained households and firms the most. My new @opinion.bloomberg.com piece. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

A MUST READ BY @claudia-sahm.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

One of the justifications for the Trump administration’s tariffs has been raising revenue: The United States raised roughly $30 billion in tariff revenue in August. But, in a new explainer, @jaycshambaugh.bsky.social shows why raising revenue via tariffs is bad for the U.S. economy:

In evaluating today's "curious kind of balance" in the labor market, we need to put it in the context of the many curiosities of the labor market during this cycle. That's part of the reason why I do not see a recessionary dynamic now ... stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/a-curious-...

It's amazing how much airtime 'talking your dot' can fill.

I modified the #SahmRule, by @claudia-sahm.bsky.social, creating 3.2k spacial Sahm Rules, which show that #recession exposure can differ by place/time. The bellwether of recessions are rich/white counties but they're slow; the fastest indicators are poor/black counties, but they're noisy.

hard to see any reaction to the government shutdown in the Michigan Survey ... typically such dysfunction leaves an imprint. of course, views were already quite downbeat.

SCOOP: The Bureau of Labor Statistics is preparing to release the September C.P.I. report despite the shutdown. (Exact date still unclear -- almost certainly not the original Oct. 15 date.) #EconSky #NumbersDay

"“At a moment like this, as complicated as monetary policy is, if everybody were in agreement, I would actually be worried that they're missing something,” Sahm said." .... Looking forward to the FOMC minutes tomorrow. www.marketplace.org/story/2025/1...

The President could have designated a handful of BLS employees essential and given us the September employment report today. Instead, we got this ...

The @profgalloway.com Markets podcast interviews @claudia-sahm.bsky.social for a take on Fed independence and market reactions overcast.fm/+ABIYtSt8U4I

"Economists stress that the Fed is not flying blind. Sahm said a better description was that the central bank is driving with a dirty windshield. “They will find ways to bring information in. They have navigated shutdowns before. They will make the best of what they have,” she said."

"The White House’s ‘move fast and break things’ attack on the Fed hit a roadblock yesterday: the Supreme Court." stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/slow-down-...

THIS IS VERY VERY GOOD NEWS.

Wow! This is a welcome surprise. www.cnn.com/2025/09/30/p...

How does the Fed selling assets raise their price (lower the yield)?

New post, I finally wrote my thoughts on the Stephen Miran Federal Reserve speech. I think it shows yet another reason for central bank independence. Without it, you can't tell what's a genuine outsider take and what's just carrying water for the Executive. mikekonczal.substack.com/p/mirans-cas...

Similar to Miran (and Bessent) in my post, Bowman, in her speech last week, had an anti-data vibe. www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...

JOLTS preview: 1/ Unless we avert a government shutdown, tomorrow morning's JOLTS release (August) will be the last major government update on the labor market for a while. We saw a teeny bit of hiring softness in June/July, but...

This season of The Apprentice is getting really old.

FT survey is not an outlier. Near unanimous support for Waller in survey of former Fed officials and staff. econ.duke.edu/news/new-sur...

FT poll

And I thought we were supposed to ignore the Twitter trolls.

Solid roundup of the prospects for continued Fed independence. I share Sahm's provisional optimism.

"There are no risk-free paths for the Fed. That’s true in any transition of members and leadership, but there are risks of a fundamental redefinition of the Fed. It’s one thing to downplay data; it’s another to become a political arm of the President." stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/fed-today-...

If Cook is removed while her case proceeds, damage is done. President would almost certainly replace her and Senate R would go along. Then he will fire others, if necessary.

Poetry in the central bankers/TSecs/CEA members #FED Cook amicus filing: "Central bank independence is the solution that Congress and the President have chosen, effectively tying their hands, like Ulysses as he passed the sirens, to protect against the risk that monetary policy will be mishandled."

I gave a speech at @UofGlasgow on the lessons we have learned from recent supply shocks and how to respond to them. The conventional wisdom is to look through them. I think we need to reconsider this. www.bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2025/...

Yeah for transparency! I hear that staffing in CPI is down by 30%--a loss of some of their most experienced staff. That means BLS has less ability to keep to deadlines when a glitch happens. Modernization, generally a very good thing, is prone to glitches.

Hunger is too scary to measure?

We can take good governance for granted until it’s gone — but it’s worth reflecting on what was working well ACIP had - Rigorous vetting of expertise by civil servants - Rolling 4-year appointments providing continuity across administrations This led to strong, credible vaccine recommendations

It's frustrating to see data quality undermined by this administration. This week's annual revision to the national accounts hit, too. www.bea.gov/information-.... That data have been important in the past.

Trump just enacted the largest cuts to food assistance in history. Now he's cancelling the government survey that measures hunger in America.

Core inflation is running ~1 pp ABOVE Fed’s target. The reason to look at inflation & yet still cut would be BECAUSE you think inflation is being temporarily boosted by tariffs. If Miran doesn’t think it’s tariffs that are boosting inflation, surely that would make him MORE worried about inflation??

or Fed vs Trump.

For those who criticized premature calls of a downturn and declining consumer sentiment, as a "vibe-cession" let me just say: it's not a vibe for everyone. I think we need to start conceptualizing recessions as more of continuous phenomenon, and maybe as more a dynamic events.

To add a bit more to this with research I've been working on. If you take @claudia-sahm.bsky.social style recession indicator methods and apply it to unemployment rates of black women, you find @itsafronomics.bsky.social #DoubleTax like conclusions, whereby black women experience recessions first.

A good conversation about the importance of maintaining the integrity of government economic data -- and investing in improvements. @brookings.edu Here's the video www.youtube.com/live/SnccjSu...

""But so long as the President identifies a cause, the determination of “some cause relating to the conduct, ability, fitness, or competence of the officer” is within the President’s unreviewable discretion."" If the Supreme Court agrees, the Fed is at-will and under control of the President.

We will miss Powell when he’s done as Chair.

"Monetary policy is not on a preset course. FOMC members will make these decisions, based solely on their assessment of the data and its implications for the economic outlook and the balance of risks. We will never deviate from that approach." Powell last month in Jackson Hole speech. Ages ago.

Independent to do what I say …

Very good news.

Good and frustrating piece on why the Fed is not fighting back. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/15/b...

Dual mandate ftw.

Lisa Cook must stay on as a Fed Governor. She must vote Wednesday. It’s not about her, it’s about us.

Did a local radio interview today, explained how tools of Fed could be politically weaponized …

Here's my chat about #BLS #statistics with @pkrugman.bsky.social! Jobs revisions, meddling, modernization and more... paulkrugman.substack.com/p/talking-wi... #econsky