"Staying would be on overtly political move, one that would buck recent institutional tradition and open the Fed to even greater political criticism. Powell would then be undermining the very institution he was trying to preserve by staying." I honestly don't get this argument.

Recessions hit economically vulnerable groups first. 🚨 My First Working Paper 🚨 using broader labor-utilization measures, like a U6-based @claudia-sahm.bsky.social style rule, flags recessions months before dating. Please read + share: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Merry Christmas 🎄

#PuffiSays farm cousin Sprinkles is not impressed with the new monetary policy rule that dropped today.

At no point watching the 60 Minutes segment did I think, “gee, what would Stephen Miller have to say?”

I want to raise a few issues with this ... - The unemployment rate was 4.6% in Nov 2025. - There are 982,000 more unemployed people in Nov 2025 than in Jan 2025. - There are 271,000 fewer federal government employees. - 982,000 > 271,000. More than 3 times more unemployed.

Call it affordability, vibes, politics: asking people how they're doing financially has been a grim exercise for some time. Only 21% in 4th quarter said they're better off financially than a year ago, near Great Recession lows. Drop in 3 steps: pandemic '20, high inflation '21-22, and past year.

There are no shortcuts to affordability. stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/there-are-... My new piece argues that the challenge for policymakers now is to support stable, sustainable growth. No quick fixes or gimmicks. We need “some years” of good policy.

Missing the October CPI is a big headache. Stat agencies are doing their best to get us back on track.

Waller would be a very smart choice for Trump.

The Sahm rule uses the 3-month average to smooth out noise in the unemployment rate. With October missing, the 3-month average is missing until January data are available.

It's interesting how often Bessent is referred to as "people."

BLS FAQ on "2025 federal government shutdown impact on the Current Population Survey" tl;dr Do NOT freak out tomorrow. www.bls.gov/cps/methods/...

Independence ‘schmendependence. The real question is which of the Kevins has better deadhead Fed hair.

Next week, with the Employment and CPI Reports, it will be critical to read any technical notes from BLS *before* reacting to the data. And even after that, temper reactions. The data fog will take time to lift ...

2026 Voter.

Turning point functions, like the @claudia-sahm.bsky.social rule, whether using U1, U3 or U6, not only indicate the start of a downturn, but inversely also indicate the end; because what the functions fundamentally capture is directionality. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Proud to be a Hoosier!

Good news. Good to see it unanimous.

A nice thread from Guy on JP's comments yesterday on NFP growth being overstated. To which I will add a caveat - the birth/death model is not the principal driver of the wedge between CES and QCEW these last two years. (Warning, statistical esoterica ahead) 🧵1/9

"Confidence, optimism, and long-term thinking all require mental spaciousness. If the information environment becomes chaotic, the emotional environment will be too." @kyla.bsky.social substack.com/home/post/p-...

Today was a jarring mix of press inquiries on President Trump's views on the economy and Fed Chair Powell's. In addition to the "A++++" I was asked about Trump's "crushing it" comment on inflation. Made me appreciate every Fed question. And ...

One of Powell's gifts is to bring calm into tumult. We will miss that next year. The Fed will be part of the tumult.

"It's really tariffs that's causing most of the inflation overshoot."

Interviewer: "How far is Trump’s A++++ rating from the reality for the US economy?" Me: Pretty far. www.newsweek.com/trump-a-plus...

Really racking up policies to improve affordability ...

A nice piece on algorithmic pricing worth your time. A question I got frequently when I led BLS was why the agency went into stores and didn’t just collect prices online. My answer, “prices online are often different than in the store, so we do both” often surprised people.

Time to retire the "low hire-low fire" label of the labor market. It's "low hire." That's a problem even without layoffs spiking.

“Litmus test” comment is problematic (and unsurprising) … but what in the world is that last answer?

When has the Fed ever specified a "six month plan?"

Goodness, give Harald what he wants. He's earned it.

A helpful and informative read from @claudia-sahm.bsky.social . So go get helped and informed. #econsky #finsky www.imf.org/en/publicati...

I have participated in the 'Fed Chair sweepstakes' like any good Fed watcher. It matters. But **absolutely pivotal** for next year is the Supreme Court decision on Lisa Cook. If the President can remove members of the Board without review, it's game over for Fed independence.

“Big changes that could happen at the Fed, in terms of the Supreme Court allowing the president to remove a Fed governor,” said Claudia Sahm. “I think at the end of the day, the economy’s going to drive where rates go. But it could be a pretty uncomfortable ride.” www.marketplace.org/story/2025/1...

In honor of the missing employment report ...

Not making light of this sentiment, but isn't "the cost of living" almost *every* year the worst ever? Prices keep rising.

“Kevin Hassett is more than capable of doing the job of Fed chair, it’s just a question of who shows up,” said Claudia Sahm. “Is it the Kevin Hassett who is the active participant in the Trump administration? Or Kevin Hassett the independent economist?” giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Powell: “[George Shultz] often said that trust is the coin of the realm, and that good things were only possible where there was mutual trust.” Lands heavy now. So much trust destroyed. www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...

CLAUDIA SAHM: "If the White House really wants to ease the burden that tariffs have created for on lower-income households, then it might want to look to...Canada, which has become a global leader in making consumption taxes more equitable." www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

I'm no fan of tariffs -- a regressive consumption tax -- but as long as they are in place, there is a need to soften the blow on lower-income households. My new @opinion.bloomberg.com talks about a better way to do that than sending out $2k checks.

thankful the BLS is back!

I am totally cool with a finance guy ignoring *decades* of research on alternative measures of the poverty rate. We should all wrestle with the question of human flourishing. www.yesigiveafig.com/p/part-1-my-...

NYT op-ed from me: Low job gains & low unemployment are causing cognitive dissonance. The cause: immigration policy. If Trump stays the course, job gains may well go lower. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/23/o... But, maybe he acts irresponsibly to get bigger numbers no matter the effect on inflation etc...

privatize the gains and socialize the costs ftw.

Interesting discussion of how businesses set their prices. What's missing is noteworthy, too. Maybe inflation expectations aren't everything? libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2025/11/how-...

“By Powell not being out there right now, he’s letting every member of the FOMC have a voice and be listened to,” said Claudia Sahm. “He’s giving them space to have this disagreement and that’s a good thing.” www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

BLS officially cancels October CPI report. "BLS could not collect October 2025 reference period survey data due to a lapse in appropriations. BLS is unable to retroactively collect these data. " November CPI to be released on December 18

“In some ways, this administration could have come in and done nothing and made progress on inflation,” said Claudia Sahm. “But the policies they’ve chosen have created extra costs for businesses, and businesses tend to pass on costs.” www.nytimes.com/2025/11/21/o...

“Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist who blasted Summers and others for sexism in a widely shared and highly critical 2020 blog post, sounded vindicated. “Okay, so maybe I wasn’t too mean to him…” she said on social media after the emails were made public last week.” www.wsj.com/us-news/larr...