BLS incorporated new population composition resulting in lower LFPR & EPOP. Employment gains averaged 5k a month over last 3 months even as UR remained low & stable, remarkably consistent with breakevens from co-authors & me. tinyurl.com/3mzddwhx PSA: DON'T USE CPS FOR FOREIGN & NATIVE BORN LEVELS.

Perhaps the occasion of this jobs report is a good time to reup my NYT op-ed: www.nytimes.com/2025/11/23/o...

These guys do great work and are on the lower end of consensus too @wendyedelberg.bsky.social @stanveuger.bsky.social www.brookings.edu/articles/mac...

I am confused by the argument AI means the Fed should cut rates. But, I guess the idea is AI will mean a whole lot of underused resources (eg labor) so the Fed will need to stimulate demand to convince employers to hire & invest. That’s a depressing world. And rate cuts won’t work in the long run.

Join us in a few minutes for what I know will be an incredible event on supply-side factors and inflation: www.brookings.edu/events/suppl... We have an amazing line up: Peter Orszag, Vice Chair Phillip Jefferson, 3 newly published papers and their authors, and more.

I'll be talking with Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson at 12 noon ET at this @brookings.edu event today. Supply-side factors and inflation: What have we learned? www.brookings.edu/events/suppl.... In-person (registration required) & livestreamed.

Let’s stop with the breathlessness about bond yields. Bond markets looked at events over the weekend and said: We demand an additional 5 basis points! The confidence that everything will be okay is just mystifying.

I am not sure how to wrap my head around this, but yesterday @jimmykimmel.com referenced the net immigration numbers that @stanveuger.bsky.social and @taraelizwatson.bsky.social and I just published. See the report here: www.brookings.edu/articles/mac...

I am not sure how to wrap my head around this, but yesterday @jimmykimmel.com referenced the net immigration numbers that @stanveuger.bsky.social and @taraelizwatson.bsky.social and I just published. See the report here: www.brookings.edu/articles/mac...

Check out this great analysis from @wendyedelberg.bsky.social @stanveuger.bsky.social and @taraelizwatson.bsky.social on the macroeconomic impacts of reduced immigration. www.brookings.edu/articles/mac...

Net US immigration was zero or slightly negative last year, in important new estimates by @stanveuger.bsky.social et al. The loss of labor cut GDP growth by about 0.2 percentage points.

Check out the great panel on immigration policy at @brookings.edu. Moderated by @taraelizwatson.bsky.social, with @davidjbier.bsky.social, @wendyedelberg.bsky.social, @kdpindc.bsky.social and yours truly. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xf9T... (After the convo with Rep. Salazar.)

New report @taraelizwatson.bsky.social, @stanveuger.bsky.social, and @taraelizwatson.bsky.social examines the economic impact of Trump-era immigration policies. After 2025’s net negative migration, 2026 is projected to remain low or negative, weighing on growth. Read here: shorturl.at/q1jOM

With @stanveuger.bsky.social and @taraelizwatson.bsky.social, we have an update on our near-term immigration analysis under Trump. Here's our range of likely outcomes for breakeven employment. Could be negative **this year**. Full piece: www.brookings.edu/articles/mac...

The full article is here: www.brookings.edu/articles/mac...

I have a new report out with @wendyedelberg.bsky.social and @taraelizwatson.bsky.social on the macro implications of US immigration flows. Net migration was down dramatically in 2025 and will remain low/negative in 2026, leading to much lower monthly employment growth and slower GDP growth.

Average payroll growth of 14.5k over the last 6 months and yet an unemployment rate that is barely moving and now at 4.4%, suggesting we are in the ballpark of full employment. How can that be? Immigration. Read my nytimes op-ed. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/23/o...

Really enjoyed hearing Wendy Edelberg on Marketplace today talking about immigration and its effects on the labor market and economy of today. About time we talk about this more publicly. @wendyedelberg.bsky.social @kairyssdal.bsky.social @marketplace.org

Really enjoyed this conversation with @jc-econ.bsky.social and Seth Carpenter. Thanks to @wendyedelberg.bsky.social for expert moderation and @brookings.edu for hosting! The event has passed, but you can still watch the video.

Brookings had a super event on supply side factors & inflation. Great insights from @jc-econ.bsky.social, Seth Carpenter & Catherine Wolfram! www.brookings.edu/events/the-s... Check out my paper: a taxonomy of related literature - how 88 papers describe supply shocks & their effects on inflation.

NYT op-ed from me: Low job gains & low unemployment are causing cognitive dissonance. The cause: immigration policy. If Trump stays the course, job gains may well go lower. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/23/o... But, maybe he acts irresponsibly to get bigger numbers no matter the effect on inflation etc...

...as part of this event @wendyedelberg.bsky.social reviewed an extensive literature & created a practical & useful taxonomy for thinking about types of supply shock and transmission channels on inflation. Highly recommend! www.brookings.edu/articles/a-t...

“We’re conditioned to think that job growth of 40,000 a month is a terrible omen for our economy,” Wendy Edelberg writes. “But if Mr. Trump’s restrictive immigration policies continue, it might simply be what the sustainable pace of new employment looks like.”

‘Were Seeing What a No-Immigration Economy Looks Like’ Bypass paywall 🔗 archive.md/2025.11.23-1... @wendyedelberg.bsky.social

Trump won’t pay SNAP benefits because the US Treasury has to “remain liquid.” What? What? What?

Upcoming virtual event at Brookings on supply-side shocks and inflation: www.brookings.edu/events/the-s... Click the link to register. The conversation will be great, and you will leave with a broad understanding of how supply shocks matter for inflation. (Shocks are not all created equal!)

Does subdued complaining re shutdown mean fed gov't isn't valued? No: 75% of workforce is still providing fed services. Complaints will increase when military (like other fed workers) misses paychecks, SNAP benefits aren't paid & shutdown of FHA, SBA, IRS, etc services becomes a serious bottleneck.

There's a lot of uncertainty about whether the labor market is healthy. Everyone agrees the unemployment rate is low—that's good. But there's disagreement on what good employment growth looks like right now, stemming from wild swings in population due to immigration policy. 🧵of 5

next year isn't going to be fun

The decline in work permit applications among immigrants is stunning. @hamiltonproject.org is tracking this on the regular: www.hamiltonproject.org/data/trackin... My guess is that labor force growth has coming to a screeching (near) halt.

Core inflation is running ~1 pp ABOVE Fed’s target. The reason to look at inflation & yet still cut would be BECAUSE you think inflation is being temporarily boosted by tariffs. If Miran doesn’t think it’s tariffs that are boosting inflation, surely that would make him MORE worried about inflation??

Core inflation is running ~1 pp ABOVE Fed’s target. The reason to look at inflation & yet still cut would be BECAUSE you think inflation is being temporarily boosted by tariffs. If Miran doesn’t think it’s tariffs that are boosting inflation, surely that would make him MORE worried about inflation??

In late 2024, many worried that Trump’s immigration policy would mean massive labor shortages & wage (& thus price) inflation. That would have meant output was above potential & the Fed would need restrictive policy. 1/4

If Trump wins SCOTUS case, he could claim cause to fire a Fed gov & gov couldn't serve while courts decide if there's really cause. (Cook's suit on that still open.) Yes, big deal. But even if he loses this, new reality for Fed officials unchanged: Trump will come after them with everything he has.

Since immigration’s effect on job growth is in the news: @taraelizwatson.bsky.social & @stanveuger.bsky.social and I explain how breakevens are affected by current immigration policy. There’s lots of uncertainty but my preferred estimates from the paper are in this table. www.aei.org/wp-content/u...

So, UI data will likely lead to downward revision of 0.9m to March 2025 employment level. In spirit of "maybe other data already reflected in policy pointed to a big revision": 3/25 emp (in CES) is running 1.6m higher than what household survey suggests. This revision would close much of that gap.

Reupping this @bencasselman.bsky.social @colbylsmith.bsky.social @nytimes.com piece from July that lays much of this out. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/02/b...

Reupping this @bencasselman.bsky.social @colbylsmith.bsky.social @nytimes.com piece from July that lays much of this out. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/02/b...

Many worried Trump’s immigration policy meant labor shortages & wage inflation, w/ presumably much lower UR. Co-authors & I argued ⬇️ immigration also ⬇️ spending & labor demand. Add tariff policy effects ➡️ labor demand & supply are about in balance. This labor mkt likely can’t manage much more demand

My posts have been too wonky so I‘ll say it plainly: This jobs report is healthy. It doesn’t mean a “worrying slowdown” or a recession. Despite the cognitive dissonance, a low UR/low job growth world will be our version of a healthy labor market for years to come under current immigration policy.

With @taraelizwatson.bsky.social and @stanveuger.bsky.social we explain how breakevens are affected by current immigration policy. There’s a lot of uncertainty but my preferred estimates from the paper are in the table here. www.aei.org/wp-content/u...

With immigration policy as it is, we need to radically adjust our expectations of the employment report. The reason that the unemployment rate can be at a low 4.3% with an increase in jobs of only 22,000 is because 22k is now a healthy payroll increase. And, that number is only going down.

The workers who are quitting accommodations and food services (eg, hotels and restaurants - disproportionately staffed by immigrants) are not being replaced. Here's job openings.

I think we're seeing evidence of ⬇️immigration & ⬆️deportations in the accommodation & food service sector. Seems we were at stable 550,000 monthly quits, then March to July: an astonishing extra 610,000 quits. The sector has fewer people to serve, helping to explain why wage growth remains modest.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects job growth will average 43,000 a month over the next decade cepr.net/publications... Few immigrants mean fewer workers.

Amplifying @econberger.bsky.social’s point. Waller isn’t right that expected ⬇️ revision to avg employment from 3/24-3/25 suggests weaker job growth in recent months let alone negative. New birth-death model might mean moderate ⬇️ revision, but would leave recent emp growth near my breakeven estimate.

Amplifying @econberger.bsky.social’s point. Waller isn’t right that expected ⬇️ revision to avg employment from 3/24-3/25 suggests weaker job growth in recent months let alone negative. New birth-death model might mean moderate ⬇️ revision, but would leave recent emp growth near my breakeven estimate.

It's remarkable to me that markets aren't pricing in monetary policy being set to achieve the goals & whims of the President, who has been clear he wants lower rates because he thinks that will save federal interest costs (true until the day infl expectations rise, pushing interest costs up wildly).

It's remarkable to me that markets aren't pricing in monetary policy being set to achieve the goals & whims of the President, who has been clear he wants lower rates because he thinks that will save federal interest costs (true until the day infl expectations rise, pushing interest costs up wildly).