social media is RL on humans

H/T @andrewdesiderio.bsky.social "With full GOP attendance, there will be 52 “yes” votes (Rand Paul opposing) Dem Sens. Fetterman, Cortez Masto & King have been backing the GOP CR. That’s 55. Add Shaheen, Hassan & Kaine, that’s 58."

! A key group of Senate Democrats is leaning toward voting for a deal to end the shutdown, provided final details can be worked out like worker protections (Gift link) (Deal does NOT include an ACA extension.) www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

So, I've heard jokes about the Senate looking like a retirement home... but um, it's kinda true. The age distribution of Senators is almost identical to The Villages, the largest retirement community in the U.S.

Jonathan Taylor has accomplished the absolute impossible: Making a highlight-reel play in Europe

it took like two months to go from hyperscalers are flush with cash to this

The pope: “you should probably be a good person” Marc Andreessen: “this is an attack on me and everything I stand for”

the equity build is so slow that this is basically renting and the landlord is interest payments to the bank compound interest should be taught in high school

I'm flying next week. I've just discovered the Flight Aware misery map www.flightaware.com/miserymap/

state of memory from @jukanlosreve.bsky.social

longer form position here www.vaticannews.va/en/pope/news... i really like this part

@vgel.me is fundraising for her model tinkering, she's done some really interesting interpretability work and I think funding this has very high returns in terms of LLM understanding per dollar. manifund.org/projects/fun...

#TreasuriesToday: Yields near flat. Ahead next week: 1st coupon auctions of Nov-Jan financing quarter -- $58b 3Y Mon, $42b 10Y Weds & $25b 30Y Thurs (cash market closed Tues globally w/Fed for Veterans Day & per @SIFMA reco, but CME futures & US stocks have regular schedule).

lost its $MSFT pump gains

"Optimus will actually eliminate poverty. Optimus will actually give people incredible medical care."

The AI build-out is truly staggering. Taiwanese exports of information & communication products (basically, semiconductors from TSMC) have risen from $10-11bn per month to $27bn in the space of a year. That's over $300bn annualised and roughly a fifth of total US equipment investment.

The worsening state of the US labor market. We talked with @conorsen.bsky.social about the jobs picture, since we don't have a jobs report. Verdict: Clear signs of deterioration, with risks of rapidly rising unemployment. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/l...

Over the last months, we’ve entirely rebuilt search on Our World in Data — we just launched it: ourworldindata.org/introducing-... Let me know what you think. Does it work for you?

Exclusive: The White House won’t allow Nvidia to sell its latest scaled-down AI chips to China, a major blow to Nvidia. Read more from Qianer Liu 👇 https://thein.fo/4ooTj9D

strategic compute reserve for open models and universities

closed source now lags open

servers overwhelmed by sandwichposting

it wasn't transitory then

“I don’t see elevated inflation as a purely transitory phenomenon that I should look through,” Pres. Hammack says in @EconClubNY speech. Inflation is coming from several directions, has been elevated for 4.5 years, & cited large, dynamic & ongoing tariffs. https://clefed.org/3LoRICg

VOLATILE STOCKS BEHAVING BADLY The one-month realized vol of non profitable tech and high beta momentum stocks is mooning to levels last seen post Rose Garden tariff announcements sherwood.news/markets/vola...

The Chicago Fed has released its final real-time forecast of the October unemployment rate. Visit our site for the data: www.chicagofed.org/research/dat...

still incredible how reflexive the rotations are

Employee sentiment tumbled in October, according to the latest Glassdoor Employee Confidence Index. 45.7% of employees reported a positive business outlook for their employers in October, down from 47.8% in September. www.glassdoor.com/blog/glassdo...

probably gonna stall again

#$AMD probably next then memory

vibes shifting

You can have high token demand that AI bulls point to while also saying that the business model around AI probably doesn’t pencil out. In the meantime you need a ton of semiconductor capital equipment since DRAM producers are now saying they’re sold out through *2027*.

Meta earns $3.5 billion every six months from showing Faceboon and Instagram users 15 billion “higher legal risk” scam ad impressions a day, internal documents state. That haul vastly exceeds how much the company expects regulators To fine it for running scam ads. www.reuters.com/investigatio...

from consumer standpoint, tariffs are still active and rates went up

If I were an ascending superpower right now, I would do everything I could to convince the dumbass legacy rival superpower to pour everything into AI, while I spent a large majority of government science funds cementing my dominance in renewable energy.

they both tried to walk their comments back but Sarah's is funnier "As I said, the US government has been incredibly forward-leaning and has really understood that AI is a national strategic asset."

🤨

"Interest rates are a blunt tool, far less targeted than the tax-and-transfer toolkit of fiscal policy. Even if the Fed wanted to, it would be difficult for it to rein in AI investments or shield low-income households. Increasing rates slows the economy from the bottom up, not the top down."

there's a little tension between the student loan lines and $CAVA and $CMG lines

lost BAC and are hiding in memory today

Actually if you ever informed Marx on AI recent progress he would be much more in the mood "they went to the moon, the fucking moon" meme rather than stochastic parrots. Man was a geek at heart.

Anyway, the idea of it being communist tech tickled me

days on market context update H/T @mikesimonsen.bsky.social

good luck to anyone reading job applications or grant proposals

New WP! Paul Novosad wrote a great thread about our paper on X: x.com/paulnovosad/... This is joint work with Jesse Silbert (Princeton), who is on the academic job market this year. Jesse is fantastic, go check him out: jesse-silbert.github.io Full paper: jesse-silbert.github.io/website/silb...