I feel for the monk seal community during this incredibly embarrassing incident that was caught on camera

I’m going to print out a bunch of copies of that map with tankers headed toward the United States and hand them out at local gas stations to cheer people up

I’m pretty sure the blockade won’t last long if it’s even implemented, but if it does that means (among many other things) higher prices at US gas stations (and worse labor market outcomes)

Has anyone tried to quasi-replicate Chandar / @erikbryn.bsky.social ‘s “Canaries in the Coal Mine” using the ACS now that 2024 data is available?

For all the talk about the rising gig economy it’s crazy how much self employment has plummeted!

I saw *another* “median wages are only going up because the rich are getting richer” tweet (fortunately not on this website) just now Can someone please set up a BestTrousersBot that to take care of this stuff?!!?!??

I can’t believe I feel the need to say this but… the decline in teen pregnancy/parenthood is an unalloyed good thing, a giant policy victory

In 2023, 50.7% of 18-19 year olds with a high school diploma but no college worked in 3 industries (retail; restaurants; military). Their unemployment rate has increased far more than that of 20-24 year olds with a college degree. Can't blame that on AI...

the “hottest” country in the world is probably closer than the US to the Equator, but if you’re allowed just 1 location per country we *do* have Death Valley

ADP showing 4-week private sector employment growth rising above 100K for the first time in a while (Not sure how much weight I'd give this, but more than zero)

Claims: 1/ Initial claims pop to a 2 month high of 219K. Below 2023 and 2025 levels; slightly above 2024. Maybe layoffs are rising from "extremely low" to merely "very low" (it's just one week, though)

Someone prepared a real nice TACO shell but the people who were responsible for supplying the fixings didn’t bring them :(

Folks arguing that it takes more than 1 to TACO looking prescient right now

still waiting to affirm the antecedent

One of the biggest zombie beliefs out there is that inflation-adjusted US wages/salaries are stagnant The body has been dead for over 10 years but the idea staggers on

I can’t believe the post (on the other site) using UK wage trends to explain US politics trends is still up

Audit of a bad prediction: 1/ Just before the March BLS jobs report, I made a loose but incorrect prediction that CPS response rates might rebound a little bit in March as fall-shutdown-onboarded households exited the sample. This thread briefly explains why I was wrong. bsky.app/profile/econ...

If this war is pausing (with luck, for longer than two weeks, like the trade war with China) and energy prices come down as a result, that’s a good thing for US labor markets

People say this is bad, but I’m going to every gas station on the area and passing out reassuring fliers that say “America Is the World’s Largest Oil Producer”

There’s a post on the other website claiming that flat real wages in the UK are responsible for post-2015 electoral outcomes… in the US

I was listening to this music by a young man named Monteverdi. I wonder if he ever did anything interesting after this youtu.be/IGM8bAwgyXA?...

How bad is the Jubail attack from a crude oil market perspective?

The first of the baby finches on our front door hatched! 2 more to go

The Morning Consult unemployment rate index is about 7% higher (in early April) than a year earlier. Rising more slowly than in late 2023 and the first half of 2024... things are getting worse according to this indicator, but slowly.

“What 2022, ’23, ’24 and ’25 made me re-evaluate is it’s not impossible for things just to keep getting worse at a very slow pace." - My comments to @nicktimiraos.bsky.social at @wsj.com about the labor market www.wsj.com/economy/jobs...

The "incredible zig-zagging employment situation" - my comments to @vtg2.bsky.social at @politico.com on Friday. www.politico.com/news/2026/04...

Thanks to @lydiadepillis.bsky.social for including me in her jobs report roundup on Friday! www.nytimes.com/2026/04/03/b...

Like an elite athlete, a poster on the other website already known for overly long posts is working extremely hard to discover what the new character limit is

Thanks to AI safety, I cannot organize a plan to keep a nation’s oil 🤷‍♂️

10/10, no notes… Fun fact: payroll employment growth has flipped signs in each of the past 10 job reports I haven’t checked but I am pretty sure it’s never happened before.

Good news on the labor market, but don’t expect it to last.

My recap of the March jobs report: Pretend you can't look at the zig zags of individual job reports. Did anything happen in the job market in the last 6 months except some mild good news? (And unfortunately, that mild good news is not gonna last.) Link: macromostly.substack.com/p/bls-jobs-r...

It turns out that "You can just do stuff!" is best coupled with "But is it a good idea?"

Youth unemployment update... time to worry more about high school grads in their late teens and a little less about college grads in their early 20s. 1/ In recent months we've seen a fairly substantial improvement in the unemployment rate for Americans in their early 20s.

I'm seeing lots of takes about the recent volatility in NFP numbers. It's higher than normal, but far from unprecedented (even in expansions). It seems bigger than it actually is because breakeven is near zero and we're seeing a lot of sign flips.

Most of the decline in unemployment has come from fewer people with short unemployment spells... My hot take: the recent decline in layoffs might have something to do with this.

As of March, we're tracking between what I penciled in a few months ago as a 95th percentile scenario ("strong acceleration") and an 80th percentile scenario ("moderate acceleration"). We'll see what happens once high energy prices start to bite, though...

Just like we'll wonder if 2025 would have been a better labor market year without the tariffs, high energy prices are going to turn 2026 into a labor market "what have been". <Team Re-Acceleration Sobs>

1/ Charts from what looks like a spectacular March jobs report: * 178K increase in NFP (biggest single gain since December 2024), some of this is returning strikers, also snapback from an abysmal Feb report * Unemployment rate falls almost 0.2pp to 4.26%

Thanks to Jeff Cox at @cnbc.com for chatting with me about what to expect in Friday's jobs report! www.cnbc.com/2026/04/02/t...

Thanks to @barrons.com & Emily Russell for publishing an op-ed regarding AI's impact on the labor market, co-authored by Access/Macro Chief Economist Tim Mahedy & yours truly! TL;DR: (Un?)fortunately, human work will be around for a long time to come. www.barrons.com/articles/ai-...

I told @businessinsider.com 's Madison Hoff that I'm worried about how energy prices will affect the labor market: "It is a bad idea to keep whacking the job market like a piñata and hoping that it doesn't break, even if it's held together so far." www.businessinsider.com/is-us-in-rec...

Thanks to Rogé Karma at @theatlantic.com for chatting with me about the unclear impact of AI on the bad/worsening labor market for young people. I don't discount the possibility of a partial impact, but the main cause is the boring old business cycle. www.theatlantic.com/economy/2026...

These guys were never quite in the 1st tier of prog rock bands (having a mediocre vocalist was a big problem and they were somewhat inconsistent) but the high points are very high… youtu.be/dbBnJrVynqI?...

Indeed job postings resuming a slow descent on a level basis; I'm still pretty sure we're converging to a trough very slowly, though... or would be, if it wasn't for high energy prices putting labor market health further at risk

The US labor market is in slightly worse shape now than it was on the day that the US announced a big increase in tariffs. Tariffs haven't been neither labor market catastrophe nor labor market victory, just mildly sucky

This morning @petereharrell.bsky.social coined “Aya-Toll” and @brendanvduke.bsky.social coined “HORMU-ZPass”, not sure any of us can top that

What’s the timeline on ground troops being available for an island invasion?

3/ Unlike initial claims, I'm less convinced that the improvement in continuing claims is indicative of genuine improvement in the labor market because we're not seeing it echoed in the BLS data.