Hi everyone, I wrote a short recap of what will happen with government labor market data after the shutdown. Hope this is useful! macromostly.substack.com/p/when-the-b...

I'm seeing some excessive reactions to this headline (from something the WH Press Secretary said. We're going to get Nov jobs & inflation data, and Dec jobs & inflation data. It's bad that we didn't get Sep on time and won't get much of Oct (it wasn't collected), but not the end of the world.

One of the most valuable labor market data providers during the shutdown has been Morning Consult. Through early November, maybe *very early* signs of labor market deterioration.

“It’s an insider-outsider thing… where outsiders that need jobs are struggling to get their foot in, even as insiders are insulated by what up until now is a low-layoff environment.” - what I told ⁦ @apnews.com ‘s @chrisrugaber.bsky.social

“The government shutdown is piling on top of all tariffs and everything else. And the question is, at some point, do these things break? At some point, does the very slow, gradual slide …turn out to be a precipitous fall?” - me, to @samfields.bsky.social

Crystal Springs Reservoir

1/ Folks have been kind enough to share the new Goldman Sachs layoff tracker (I’m not cool enough to be on the distribution list) My take - it’s interesting! I am curious to see how it performs out of sample.

The CPS reference period was last week (earlier than the typical month, but normal-early for November), and typically they would have started data collection this week. But assuming the shutdown ends this week, there's precedent for starting data collection late - e.g. 2013.

I’m about to become a whole wheat pasta millionaire

If we’re really wrapping up the shutdown this week & BLS data flow resumes, it will take a while to catch up. For instance, the Sep jobs report would be released relatively quickly, but it’s old news. We probably wouldn’t get real news about the labor market until early Dec?

At this point it’s less well-known than the version Miles Davis recorded, but Eddie Harris’s original recording of “Freedom Jazz Dance” is pretty weird (and great). Not your stereotypical 1960s soul jazz youtu.be/iDrH5urtCbQ?...

For anyone who is interested, my weekly labor market indicator recap. Link: macromostly.substack.com/p/high-frequ...

I think the most valuable Revelio monthly data isn't the employment growth data, but rather their turnover metrics on hiring and attrition. We're really feeling the absence of JOLTS and CPS-based quasi-JOLTS, so this kind of thing is essential.

I took a look at the Revelio employment growth estimates and noticed they have a pattern of downward revisions to recent data. I am guessing this has to do with idiosyncrasies in the LI data they are using to calculate employment growth.

Job cut announcements vs. other layoff indicators in perspective (I updated this chart)

5 weeks ago, I wrote about the shutdown's impact on the labor market and how big it would be. A big reason why the impact has been small so far: few irreversible events. But we're starting to cross some potentially more serious and economically destructive milestones...

"These mass layoff announcements have not been representative of what most companies in the United States are doing; they're outliers that get a lot of attention... maybe finally other firms start following their footstep, but so far it has not happened." www.businessinsider.com/amazon-ups-l...

“Lay-offs get a lot of the attention, but weak hiring has been much more important in explaining the cooling that we’ve seen in the labour market.” Thanks to Stephanie Stacey at @financialtimes.com for chatting w/me about all those scary layoff headlines! www.ft.com/content/fabb...

Claims update: 1/ In the week ended 11/01, initial claims rose to 228K (if I'm doing my math right). That's a little higher than in both 2024 and 2023. Because of residual seasonality I expect them to drift lower during the remainder of the year - if not, that would be un-good

No access to a computer, still having fun posting

Since were enduring another round of Challenger discourse, a reminder - It’s has some directional signal (when it goes up, so do superior layoff indicators) but the magnitudes are wildly off. Look at those y axes! (No access to computer so chart not updated)

The overwhelming number of US layoffs come from firms not included in the job cut announcement tally. We’re not worried about “Fortune 500 company that announced layoffs”, we’re worried about a long tail of companies that might be doing the same w/less fanfare

“Good news. Yes hiring is weak and you can’t find a job, but at least it’s probably not because of AI”

For anyone who is interested, a post on a mild disagreement I have with the great @deanbaker13.bsky.social . Based on the data we've seen so far (into late October), my sense is that hiring is falling slowly or even not at all. macromostly.substack.com/p/why-im-onl...

I was today years old when I realized that Minister of Administrative Affairs James Hacker was in the classic Grey Poupon commercial

Again, this time could be different than at various points in the last few years and (until now unrepresentative) high profile mass layoff announcements could translate into a meaningful increase in aggregate layoffs... But it hasn't happened through 10/25.

Claims: 1/ We now have new initial claims data (week ended 10/25) from most geos (ex. AZ, MA, DC & VI). If my math is right, regular initial claims (no federal workers!) were, at 219K, almost exactly at the same level as they were in 2024 and 2023.

I’m seeing a lot of folks sharing this number, but caution is more warranted than usual - a lot of the source data you would typically have in late October are currently missing due to the shutdown. The current nowcast for Q3 is unusually data-light and assumption-heavy. And we’re in Q4!!!

Since we are having another round of high profile layoff discourse this week (with ‘blame AI’ to spice things up): 1/ High profile mass layoffs have been the “kid who cried wolf” for the last few years. Maybe this is changing but we don’t see it, yet, in the data.

If Abraham Lincoln can be a vampire hunter, why can’t Napoleon be a demon hunter

Can’t unsee!

“Far from it” will become less & less far if the job market deteriorates further by mid December Conditional forecasts, how do they work :)

Powell didn't really answer @vtg2.bsky.social 's question about how to reconcile low employment growth and somewhat less low consumer spending growth...

Powell recapping the decline in both labor demand & supply in response to a question by Elizabeth Schulze ... still an underappreciated point in labor market discourse

I'm surprised Powell said we're "150 basis points closer to neutral"... given the slowdown in labor supply growth, I don't think that's true

Powell got asked about layoff announcements... waiting for it to actually show up in the aggregate data (the correct decision)

I like @chrisrugaber.bsky.social 's question about whether AI investment boom reflects easy monetary policy; I'm surprised Powell didn't default to the dual mandate in his answer!

I like @colbylsmith.bsky.social cutting to the chase with her question... if the mild cooling in the labor market we're (probably) seeing peters out, Fed easing would (reasonably) stop [Also, if the Fed becomes convinced underlying inflation has worsened, it might not even get to that...]

Lots of talk on social media about how much the AI boom (and stock market surge) should affect the Fed's decisionmaking but in response to a question from Claire Jones ( @financialtimes.com ), Powell seemed fairly dismissive

Great question from @nicktimiraos.bsky.social on what threshold would convince Powell that no more cutting is needed... can't wait to find out how he evades answering it

Now catching up on the press conference... Powell doesn't express any urgency about what he characterizes (accurately I think) as "gradual cooling" in the labor market

"Available indicators..." (sad face)

A few comments on this legendary, high quality data series: 1/ It's experienced residual seasonality the last few years, I don't find the Oct rebound to be reassuring. 2/ It's been too pessimistic recently relative to the hard labor market data. [Chart courtesy of @gregdaco.bsky.social ]

1/ I love getting the weekly data from ADP. As with NFP, I caution attaching strong meaning to employment growth metrics during a period when labor supply growth is unknown. My best guess is job growth is that relative to the breakeven, low double-digits private sector...

We have new unemployment rate data out of Morning Consult, through October 25th. Less good than a few months ago (when it was down significantly Y/Y), but not clearly deteriorating yet either. No big alarm bells about the labor market here.

How you differentiate bandwagon vs true labor market data fans: “Can you tell me what your favorite BLSdotgov data table is?” (FTR, tables A-8a and A-11 are the correct answers to this question)

1/ The Talent Resilience Index is a cool new report by my partners at @guildeducation.bsky.social, in partnership with @lightcast.bsky.social , measuring resilience in the US workforce: guild.com/report/talen...

Deleted this thread because I was wrong about their proposed GLI!

The best late Mingus youtu.be/cNf7w_-72xg?...

Excited to attend the @guildeducation.bsky.social 2025 Opportunity Summit! If you’re here say hi! guild.com/opportunity-...