The usual caveats apply when comparing ADP to BLS jobs reports. But add an additional one for October; this report was anticipated to be a big negative headline print - an estimated 150,000-200,000 federal workers left government at the end of September. www.reuters.com/world/us/us-...

It’s been just one month with little official economic data.

A very nice rundown of what private data sources can and cannot tell you about the state of the economy right now.

Had not seen this reported elsewhere, that ADP has stopped sharing micro data with the Fed since the government shutdown. Article says Waller 'disclosed' this arrangement in an August speech, angering ADP, but the Fed has been transparent about this project for years (see, Cajner, et al., 2018).

Just pointing out the incoherence of ‘we must replace BLS leadership because of falling response rates’ and ‘we aren’t going to let you stem falling response rates by following up when they don’t respond’. (Census collects data for BLS too.)

This is a good summary.

The big story here is of an agency of dedicated statisticians and public servants working tirelessly to improve economic data in a climate of budgetary cuts to data collection. They have been very innovative in meeting that mandate. But we should also just fund our economic infrastructure.

The preliminary benchmark revision of -911K amounts to -0.6% to March 2025 payroll employment. Combined with 2-month revisions, recent total revisions are big but hardly unprecedented, & smoothed over the business cycle the payroll survey has gotten more accurate over time.

Your daily reminder that US economic data is of extremely high quality even when compared to other advanced nations and the envy of the world

The first wave of the survey underpinning nonfarm payrolls has seen falling response rates, but in contrast to accusations the BLS has "failed to take corrective action" several targeted steps have kept 2nd & 3rd wave response rates at or above 90%--Gold standard data from dedicated public servants

APOLLO: “.. Census data is starting to show a slowdown in AI adoption for large companies. “.. The US Census Bureau conducts a biweekly survey of 1.2 million firms, and one question is whether a business has used AI tools .. to help produce goods or services in the past two weeks.”

The larger-than-usual downward revision last month was in large part driven by a negative skew in the job growth distribution among late reporting firms. That’s unusual, but it’s happened before when the pace of job growth slows rapidly. This print is more evidence that was the case

A key challenge for BLS is adequate funding for data collection and modernization. During my tenure I tried to identify the causes. One person told me, ‘your problem is that while BLS has no enemies you also have no friends’ meaning no powerful interest groups advocating for economic data.

"Payroll employment revisions indicate a slowing labor market—not a political agenda" A great resource for journalists & others who want to understand recent events with BLS. @upjohninstitute.bsky.social Pres Mike Horrigan helped lead BLS for decades. #EconSky #️⃣#️⃣ www.upjohn.org/news/payroll...

It has been the honor of my life to serve as Commissioner of BLS alongside the many dedicated civil servants tasked with measuring a vast and dynamic economy. It is vital and important work and I thank them for their service to this nation.

BLS explaining its CPI data collection reductions "Roughly 15 percent of the sample in the other 72 areas also was suspended from collection, on average." But it reassured this kind of reduction will have limited effect on CPI www.bls.gov/cpi/notices/...

That was my theory going into the piece, but it turned out to be not only false but seemingly the opposite: the biggest employment gains young male grads have made in the past year have been in software and engineering jobs

I’ve talked to many young people in recent years who are interested in an econ PhD but don’t want a career in academia. Glad to see NABE stepping in here to provide more information on nonacademic careers for economists. (Only half of recent US econ PhDs work in academia!)

Attn users of CPS microdata: the April 2025 has been re-posted on the Census site to correct some errors in the weights and geography variables. Links in next tweet.

Can’t beat this commute to the office (walk to Woodley Park metro via the Zoo)

Even the guide dogs are posing among the blossoms on the mall today

CPS data users take note:

A nice defense of the utility of vacancy data for policymakers, and how vacancies might rise and fall with recruiting intensity

The AEA has posted complimentary recordings of the AEA Recent Developments Lectures presented at #ASSA2025 by leading scholars in different fields of economics. #econsky www.aeaweb.org/conference/w...

VIDEO of terrific panel at #assa2025 on inflation. @jasonfurman.bsky.social does a great job moderating conversation with Ben Bernanke (@brookings.edu), Christy Romer, John Cochrane. Worth watching. #econsky

Miss the days when a winter storm during ASSAs would break economist social media as we all logged on to complain about our travel woes

Wisdom of the crowds: first flight from DC to ASSA meetings I’ve ever been on that wasn’t packed with other economists. Seemed like a bad sign and sure enough it was.

Home in the frozen north for the weekend helping muck out these guys stables

Lots of folks assume more N is always better but not if your sampling design or methods are flawed. If your sample is biased, a larger N will make your estimates more precise, but still wrong. Statisticians refer to this as the ‘big data paradox’. A good intro here:

Last jobs day at Postal Square, last post-briefing coffee at Union Station, packing up to join the first wave moving to our new digs in Maryland next week.

Crowdsourcing some ideas for remarks for upcoming events - what do my fellow economics data watchers want to know more about?

The US Census Bureau's Business Trends and Outlook Survey shows that AI adoption by US firms has risen to 6% the highest on record. (Data goes back to late 2023.) Additionally, the share of firms *planning* to use AI has risen north of 9%.

I can’t figure out how to do this so I’m going to continue my practice of self-verification by posting exclusively about seasonal adjustment models

Gained too many followers here in the last two weeks, going to need to post more boring statistical esoterica to generate some drops

Response rate is not generally a good proxy for nonresponse bias. Response rates are often used as a proxy for survey data quality. But (1) nonresponse bias is only one source of survey error (2) nonresponse bias is a variable-specific phenomenon that varies more w/in a survey than across surveys

Absolutely best thing about this job is getting to talk to the economists and statisticians about the technical work involved in measuring the economy. I am always learning new things

If you have ever wondered how sticky economists initial job placements are, how wages evolve in academia vs industry, we have new data here:

CBO invests in the incredibly important work of providing non-partisan economic and budgetary analyses to Congress.  For next year, they are particularly interested in hosting scholars with expertise in macroeconomics or health care.

Subscribe to the #NumbersDay feed & push your real time analysis to the feed @benhanowell.bsky.social @besttrousers.bsky.social @carlquintanilla.bsky.social @claudiasahm.bsky.social @crampell.bsky.social @danielzhao.bsky.social @deanbaker13.bsky.social @delong.bsky.social @dianeswonk.bsky.social

If you are an academic with research leave or earned sabbatical credit for academic year 2024-25, and are passionate about applying economic policy research to make the world a better place, please consider applying to the CBO’s visiting scholar program: www.cbo.gov/about/career...