Never a good sign when the best available data about the labor market is UI claims. (Though glad to have them.) Last time this happened: the three weeks from mid March to early April 2020, from when the pandemic shut everything down to the March jobs report publication.

Thanks to the shutdown, we didn't get the first estimate of Q3 GDP today. And private-sector data offer no good substitute for official GDP. The shutdown offers lots of lessons about what private sector data can and can't do. New at @piie.com : www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

Is the payroll data that ADP just announced they're publishing weekly the same or different from what ADP was sharing with the @federalreserve.gov until recently? (And, if different, how?)

Global growth holds up despite policy headwinds and rising risks - New blog by Karen Dynan Latest global economic propsects from @piie.com www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

EJ Antoni nomination to lead BLS is withdrawn. www.cnn.com/2025/09/30/p...

12 Senators want to know the Administration's plans for federal #statistics by 10/6. “The integrity of America’s #economicdata is fundamental to our economic prosperity and global leadership – it is not a partisan issue...” www.banking.senate.gov/imo/media/do... #econsky

DHS has just claimed that 1.6 million unauthorized immigrant "self deported" this year. This number seems to come from a Center for Immigration Studies estimate that relies on the Current Population Survey. As @jedkolko.bsky.social writes, such a large decline doesn't line up with other data

Please consider joining live tomorrow! My guest Oleksandra Azarkhina is among the best experts for a forward-looking discussion of Ukraine's prospects as a (potential) future member of the European Union.

Update: The Consumer Expenditure Survey is being delayed ~5 weeks, with no impact on the CPI weights, and for good technical reasons.

The BLS is NOT postponing the monthly inflation report, the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Rather, the delay is for the annual Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX). CEX provides the "weights" for the CPI and other inflation measures.

There are no politicals at BLS now. No BLSers have leaked about pressure on the CEX or other work at BLS. And this release is likely too low-profile to warrant meddling. So, I don’t think that the issue is pressure. The shortage of funding and staffing —also nefarious—is a more likely cause.

#BLS has delayed the 2024 Consumer Expenditures Survey annual release. This is likely due to the severe understaffing in the agency. Staff losses and hiring freeze are taking their toll. www.bls.gov/cex/notices/... #econsky

Why do businesses need credible official economic data? Come find out! 2:30 today, @brookings.edu -- in-person and virtual www.brookings.edu/events/the-i...

Steve Moore (!): Trump aims to bolster U.S. manufacturing—in part through steel and aluminum tariffs. But ...Trump’s order to raise the tax on imported aluminum to 50% will almost certainly cost far more manufacturing jobs than it will save. www.wsj.com/opinion/trum...

The Fed expects slower GDP growth than the White House does -- especially 2026 onward. One Fed participant projects GDP growth of 2.6-2.7% in 2026, 2027, and 2028, but none projects GDP growth as high as the White House does.

NEW: At her confirmation hearing, Joyce Meyer, President Trump’s nominee for the next under secretary of commerce for economic affairs to oversee the Census Bureau, avoided directly answering whether she agrees the president is unable to conduct a new census before 2030 unless Congress passes a law

Fed nerds: would Miran have a projection in the SEP today, or would timing be too tight for his projection to be prepared and included?

The person who could reshape US economic statistics -- including oversight of the BLS -- has their Senate confirmation hearing at 10 am today.

Today: hearing for Joyce Meyer, nominee for Under Secretary of Commerce for Economic Affairs. Role oversees Census and BEA, and potentially BLS if it moves from Labor to Commerce. www.commerce.senate.gov/2025/9/senat...

Today, Congressional Budget Office lowered its GDP growth projection for 2025 and raised it for 2026. Revision reflects 2025 reconciliation act, tariffs, and lower immigration. CBO's projections still well below White House assumptions, esp for 2026-2028.

Inbox: American Community Survey (ACS) Data Users Group Online Community is shutting down. Has 7000 members; operating since 2013. Big loss to users of the ACS, the key source of economic, societal, and demographic information about local communities.

Job growth in industries more reliant on unauthorized immigrants has been flat this year. These industries include construction, hotels, restaurants, home health care, & several other industries in manufacturing, technology, & services. #PIIECharts

NEW: The confirmation hearing for Joyce Meyer, President Trump’s nominee for the next under secretary of commerce for economic affairs to oversee the Census Bureau, is set to take place Sept. 17 before the Senate Commerce Committee

New immigration estimates in the past day: CBO revised its 2025 estimate down from 2.0m to 408k. Census ACS reported 2024 immigration to US was new high at 1.8m; this will drive their 2025 estimate. Brace for more confusion about the rate of immigration! jedkolko.substack.com/p/new-immigr...

The big story here is of an agency of dedicated statisticians and public servants working tirelessly to improve economic data in a climate of budgetary cuts to data collection. They have been very innovative in meeting that mandate. But we should also just fund our economic infrastructure.

Another regular reminder: Big policy shocks to the economy will make revisions bigger. Models based on past trends that are used to fill in late or missing data will not reflect recent policy shocks.

The preliminary benchmark revision of -911k is a bit steeper than expectations, but close. The downward revision was mostly already known from the key publicly available source, and consistent with data from related sources.

Today's preliminary benchmark revision to the jobs report is: transparent well-telegraphed in advance based on publicly available data necessary for achieving both speed and accuracy in economic data

This week: not just CPI! Tues: Preliminary benchmark revision to nonfarm payrolls Annual Census income, poverty, & health insurance report (based on 2025 CPS ASEC) Wed: Update to CBO demographics outlook Thurs: 2024 American Community Survey

This week: not just CPI! Tues: Preliminary benchmark revision to nonfarm payrolls Annual Census income, poverty, & health insurance report (based on 2025 CPS ASEC) Wed: Update to CBO demographics outlook Thurs: 2024 American Community Survey

Interpret immigration & jobs data carefully & beware partisans & policy advocates who latch on to data that prove their point, @jedkolko.bsky.social warns.

The larger-than-usual downward revision last month was in large part driven by a negative skew in the job growth distribution among late reporting firms. That’s unusual, but it’s happened before when the pace of job growth slows rapidly. This print is more evidence that was the case

It’s entirely possible this is because BLS was in the news so much while the survey was in the field.

The CPS (household survey) response rate jumped in August to its highest level since last October. The fog surrounding immigration estimates and survey response rates just keeps getting thicker.

The household survey shows that August employment was: -561k for native-born +50k for foreign-born And that's as meaningless as previous months' talking points about all new jobs going to the native-born. All of the above is a misuse of data. jedkolko.substack.com/p/your-guide...

Here's the closest it gets to a good-news jobs day chart. The employment-population ratio, adjusted for population aging, increased slightly in August and remains not far off from a multi-decade high.

The sharp decline in immigration that began mid-2024 and has presumably accelerated in 2025 has not helped the native-born unemployment rate.

Job growth has been essentially zero since January in industries that rely more on immigrants.

Durable goods manufacturing is losing jobs, at an accelerating rate. That's the sector most directly affected by tariffs. Seems to be hurting.

Nonfarm payrolls +22k. That's either great or terrible depending on what you believe about the current rate of immigration and growth of the labor force. Choose your own adventure!

What do Trump's immigration policies mean for the job market? They're taking a toll labor supply, but also on demand. Great on-the-ground look from @lydiadepillis.bsky.social in Florida: www.nytimes.com/2025/09/05/b... #EconSky

If you believe that the number of immigrants has fallen by 2 million in 2025, the jobs report will be a win if nonfarm payrolls increase at all — or decline by less than 184,000.

NEW: While there has surely been a dramatic decline in the immigration rate since 2022, 2023, & the first half of 2024, there are no solid data yet on whether net immigration has slowed, stopped, turned slightly negative, or turned sharply negative. By @jedkolko.bsky.social:

Previewing tomorrow's jobs report: what we can and can't learn about immigration. Focus on: (1) native- and foreign-born unemployment rates (2) job growth in immigrant-reliant industries. Ignore pretty much everything else. jedkolko.substack.com/p/your-guide...

My latest at @piie.com: an update to the nonfarm payrolls breakeven rate. It depends on immigration! Monthly job growth needed to keep labor market steady: +88k (using original Census estimates) +27k (using zero net immigration) -184k (using reported CPS immigration decline)

Ahead of jobs day: Native born unemployment is rising. Foreign born unemployment has fallen below the native born level.

My papers arguing that the "Abundance Movement" needs broadening to include place-based jobs policies for distressed places are being released today, with a long paper at the Upjohn Institute & a shorter summary at Brookings Metro.

.@jedkolko.bsky.social argues the BLS data showing 2.2 million fewer immigrants in the US in July than in January is almost certainly wrong & would lead to absurd implications about the labor market: https://bit.ly/45A7Ecy

That reported 2.2 million decline in US immigrants just doesn’t add up. It's implausibly large, uncorroborated, and implies absurd gyrations in the labor market. My latest, at @piie.com www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

Monthly job growth has been below breakeven rate for past three months, after July jobs report and downward revisions to payrolls. I hear this topic might come up at Jackson Hole! Updated post: jedkolko.substack.com/p/updated-br... Original report at @piie.com: www.piie.com/publications...