We began 2025 with real momentum. It has clearly slowed. The question is whether we’ve downshifted to a comfortable jog—or are stumbling toward recession. Tariffs and uncertainty lean the wrong way, and the shutdown’s data blackout makes it harder to tell.

A serious question, for anyone who wants to engage in our economic debate: How should we talk about nonsense?

The last penny has been minted. I joined CNN's Brianna Keilar to dive into what it all means. There's actually a whole lot of economics -- and politics! -- to this story. If the news today feels too heavy, this is a bit lighter. Come and have fun with us! www.youtube.com/watch?v=332A...

I'm not really sure how to describe what I'm saying in this video, beyond saying that I think it captures an absurd truth about our current situation.

I'm not funny.

I sat down with Ed Elson to talk about Trump's new idea of a "tariff dividend," and we got to talking about the deeper issues this raises, like how seriously to take economic proposals from a White House that doesn't take its own proposals seriously. www.youtube.com/watch?v=qdqd...

The economics of health care -- not to mention the politics, or the human reality -- are important, and complicated. We deserve a more careful and thoughtful policy response than "here's a check," or "we'll have a plan in two weeks."

"Literally every single word the President said was wrong... We have enormous anxiety among voters. The cost of living is rising, and people are understandably upset. I just want to be crystal clear there's not a word coming out of the man's mouth that is correct."

I sat down with Ed Elson to talk about Trump's new idea of a "tariff dividend," and we got to talking about the deeper issues this raises, like how seriously to take economic proposals from a White House that doesn't take its own proposals seriously. www.youtube.com/watch?v=qdqd...

A 30-year mortgage currently has an interest rate of 6.3%. A reasonable guess it that a 50-year mortgage rate would be about 7.0%. ⇒ The monthly payment on a $500k mortgage: - 30 years: $3,050 per month - 50 years: Only $100 less at $2,950 (but 240 months longer).

"It is implausible. It's impossible. It's not true. And it's made up. And this utter detachment from reality... has become an increasing part of their economic policy. If you can't see the reality... you can't design the right policy to correct the real problems that exist."

"Look, every word the president just said is a lie." -- Me, telling the truth.

The market for health care isn’t at all like the market for apples or oranges. It’s life-and-death, with info gaps, emergencies, and insurance market failures. That’s why we regulate and subsidize. Pretending the market works isn't a plan, just as a “plan in 2 weeks” isn’t a plan.

Some simple shutdown math: $7–$15 billion per week sounds huge. In context, the U.S. produces ~ $538 billion per week. So the hit is roughly a couple of percentage points of a week’s output, or a few hundredths of a percent of annual GDP. Painful waste, yes. Economic catastrophe, no.

We’ve seen this movie: the plow cut farm jobs, the PC cut typists, spreadsheets cut bookkeepers. The result wasn’t mass unemployment—it was new, better work. AI can be similar—if we invest in people rather than nostalgia, and focus on getting the policy settings right.

A bunch of folks have asked me what this looks like in local currency terms. Here's the chart. It's a similar story: The performance of the U.S. stock market during the Trump presidency is... ~~meh~~

He campaigned on cutting the cost of living, but he has governed to raise it: regressive tariffs, immigration, fiddling with the Fed, cutting renewable energy, and firing the person whose job was to measure all of this.

"the trajectory is really really really good if you look at it." 🤔

I wonder if the United States can learn anything from the last time a major industrialized country decided to isolate itself from the rest of the world? Almost a decade after the Brexit vote, GDP in the UK is around 6-8% lower relative to peer countries. (Source: www.nber.org/papers/w34459)

"I have two roles that really matter to me in the world. One, I'm an economist and two, I'm a dad... And you can think some of the world's great problems are from the failings of some fathers and some of the world's great problems are from the failings of some econ 101 teachers."

"This is a White House that is very focused on making sure the top end of town is doing okay. We do know that they've passed a budget that helps the rich. We do know that tariffs hurt the poor. We do know that when an economy slows down, that hurts working and middle class families the most."

In case it's not obvious, none of this is true. He's either innumerate, or lying.

Who imposed tariffs? Who cut immigration, destroying the ag workforce? Who undermined the Fed? Who halted renewable energy? Who's running deficits?

Facts would like a word.

Two truths can be true at once: AI may be utterly transformative; Wall Street may be in over its skis. For your 401(k), the lesson from the dot‑com era: diversify broadly so you catch the wave without betting the house on Pets dot com 2.0.

He said: "Prices are down under Trump.' Me: "It is quite literally false. There's not a single way you can interpret a word that the man's saying..as being remotely reflective of either what we're seeing in data from all across the country or in people's everyday lives."

Remember that insurance is actually a thing you hope never to use, and then read this critique.

I can't tell you how many interviews I've done where I've been asked: If Trump's policies are so problematic, why are U.S. stocks rising so rapidly. A bit of international context illustrates the real issue here. U.S. stocks have dramatically underperformed other advanced economies.

It can be hard to do math in your head, while standing up, on national television. Nerve-wracking, too. But even so, in twenty seconds on the air, I did a better job than the President in costing his latest idea and figuring out whether his new idea of a $2,000 rebate check will work. (It won't.)

"The punters have never felt more dissatisfied with the direction of economic policy than they feel right now."

I can’t swear on TV — but my face does it for me. You can probably guess what it just said about the President’s latest nonsense.

Taxing Americans through tariffs and then returning more to them through rebate checks is...

My favorite thing about this thread is the reply guys who have never encountered Australian-style sarcasm before.

Dan Quayle mis-spelled potatoe

The fact that someone was fooled by a spoof from a website (literally) called the Dunning-Kruger Times has no bearing at all on my confidence that he would definitely have the upper hand in any negotiation with President Xi, or Putin.

When prices rise because *demand* is hot, wages usually follow. When prices rise because tariffs raise costs -- a *supply* shock -- there’s no reason paychecks catch up. That’s why tariff inflation hurts a whole heckuva lot more. It's a permanent reduction in living standards.

There's a little bit of economics underlying Musk's trillion dollar payday. Let's try to make sense of it all by serving up a main course of the Economics of Superstars, with a side of Principal -Agent problems, and a healthy helping of Political Economy. www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWxM...

I joined my pal @mollyjongfast on her Fast Politics podcast to talk about life without jobs data, Trump’s tariffs, SNAP, and and how torching your own institutions is a bold new strategy for national decline. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yzpa...

The market’s AI run-up yields two plausible stories: 1) A genuine productivity revolution that lifts living standards; 2) A classic overhype that ends like 2000. Surely the right stance isn’t certainty; it’s humility, diversification, and an eye on the long run.

"isn't that just the conversation we've been having now for years, which is how does someone look the American people in the eye and lie to them? How should you respond as someone in the media? And how should I respond as an economist?"

Econ 101 midterm question: Based on what you know about risk pools and adverse selection in healthcare markets, will giving people money instead of giving them money to buy health insurance lead these markets to function more effectively, or will it just lead more people to be uninsured?

Let's talk about Trump's tariffs and the constitution. On Slate's What Next podcast. slate.com/podcasts/wha...

WOLFERS: “.. I can’t tell you why the president lies, but I can tell you that everything he has said about prices being lower is a lie. .. I’m starting to think that he doesn’t actually care about the cost of living.” @justinwolfers.bsky.social @svdate.bsky.social www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-...

Trump's tariffs are hurting us in two ways: First, the obvious: Higher costs → either lower profits or higher prices. Second, more subtle (perhaps bigger): We’ve signaled we’re an unreliable partner, so allies are reorganizing supply chains to avoid us. That's hard to unwind.

"Mate, if any of those numbers were true, you know, we could all be on yachts right now. It'd be terrific. I don't know why the bloke doesn't just say eleventy gajillion and get on with it. When you're making numbers up, just be transparent about it."

If the Supreme Court rules against the President, expect it "move our chaotic trade war that was really chaotic-and-settled, into merely chaotic, back to extremely chaotic again."

Every Friday night, as the markets close, a chill runs down my spine. Somewhere in D.C., a comms official is whispering, “Perfect time to announce it.”

In the 2000s, just ten percent of Americans believed the government was doing a poor job on economic policy. Today, that's 64%, higher than at any point in our history, beating the oil shocks, wage and price controls, the great inflation, any major recession, financial crisis or pandemic.

Trump’s tariffs have a constitution problem. Join host Mary Harris and @justinwolfers.bsky.social on What Next for more: slate.com/podcasts/wha...

"it's a symptom of a deep and abiding dysfunction that Republicans, despite holding the presidency, the Senate and the House, can't fund the government and can't even get themselves to get together in a room to strike a deal."