“If the Strait of Hormuz is functionally closed [for] two weeks, I think we’re going to get $100-plus oil. If we go beyond that, then oil prices could start to get into Scary Land.” www.derekthompson.org/p/the-econom...

We need candidates who fall firmly into “looks like a cinnamon roll, could actually kill you” overlap.

Great piece by @dkthomp.bsky.social on GLPs, AI, and how we make progress in biomedicine. First thing to notice: without early studies on the biology of anglerfish and gila monsters, this trillion-dollar breakthrough likely wouldn't exist. open.substack.com/pub/derektho...

Striking @dkthomp.bsky.social interview w/ Eli Lilly CEO Dave Ricks covering the widespread effects of GLP-1 drugs, AI as a bad cancer-cure finder, why people hate Big Pharma, and more. Gotta say, I often wonder if these drugs will end up having way more long-term impact on our lives than AI.

Very interesting piece - @dkthomp.bsky.social talks to Eli Lilly CEO Dave Ricks about GLP-1s. These drugs will be up there with vaccines and antibiotics in their impact on public health. Remarkable seeing it unfold in real time. HT @charlescmann.bsky.social www.derekthompson.org/p/why-ai-is-...

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/p... @dkthomp.bsky.social and @add-hawk.bsky.social clearly I am a total dork, that what a fun conversation about philosophy, games, the world and teaching!

FWIW @dkthomp.bsky.social says he’s not a new contributor at CBS and has been on contract with the network for the past seven years.

YIR: The most thought-provoking analysis of the major economic, cultural, ideas that are affecting the U.S. in profound ways. @dkthomp.bsky.social certainly has his ear to the rails, together with a human touch to explain it all. Certainly one of the best reads this season. #longreads

Wow. Tracking Americans using alcohol vs cannabis: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.... (via @dkthomp.bsky.social )

New post by @dkthomp.bsky.social is excellent, although I wish he had raised the saliency of good news in the world. GLP-1 drugs are miracles. AVs are saving lives. Solar + Batteries are simply winning. mRNA, cultured meat, EVs, robotics....the future is here. www.derekthompson.org/p/the-26-mos...

Hi Derek, here's 2025 medium.com/@tomwhitwell...

DKTHOMP: “.. Last week, we were discussing how one could capture the entire AI-bubble debate in about 12 statistics .. we thought: What the hell, let’s just publish the whole playbook!” @dkthomp.bsky.social www.derekthompson.org/p/how-to-sou...

Every AI-bubble debate is the same 12 facts, studies, and arguments quoted back and forth, over and over. So Tim Lee at @understandingai.skystack.xyz and I teamed up to publish a 4,000 word deep-dive analysis of all 12. www.derekthompson.org/p/how-to-sou...

This will be the most useful thing you will read this month There are 12 statistics, factoids, and studies that dominate every discussion about whether artificial intelligence is a bubble. Here's a deep-dive into all 12 arguments. via @dkthomp.bsky.social www.derekthompson.org/p/how-to-sou...

I was glad to be on the latest episode of @dkthomp.bsky.social's Plain English podcast, discussing how to turn around declining US math skills. We know at least some of the solutions but in many cases have been doing just the opposite. Listen here: open.spotify.com/episode/06Ve...

New pod: I think AI is a bubble. But, suddenly, so does everybody else. I don't like it when conventional wisdoms get too conventional. So I asked @azeem.bsky.social: What is the single strongest case that AI is NOT a bubble? This episode is his answer. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/e...

I loved chatting with the always-sharp @dkthomp.bsky.social about the catastrophic recent loss of work for Hollywood's middle-class and why AI may lead to a creative renaissance for the entertainment industry akin to 1970s cinema. open.spotify.com/episode/2P3w...

1. Social media is now 5% following friends and 95% watching videos made by strangers. 2. Every podcast is turning into a YouTube show. 3. AI companies can't stop building TikTok clones. Everything is becoming television. I wrote about why that matters. www.derekthompson.org/p/why-everyt...

> @dkthomp.bsky.social

"Total AI capex is projected to exceed $500 billion in 2026 and 2027—roughly the annual GDP of Singapore. Meanwhile, American consumers spend only $12 billion a year on AI services—roughly the GDP of Somalia." www.derekthompson.org/p/this-is-ho...

“The demise of writing matters because writing is not a second thing that happens after thinking. The act of writing is an act of thinking.” @dkthomp.bsky.social captures the high stakes of academic declines: we need to be training our brains to compete w AI. www.theargumentmag.com/p/you-have-1...

Another great discussion from @dkthomp.bsky.social podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/p...

Loved this episode of Plain English with @dkthomp.bsky.social. Suzanne O’Sullivan is such a sane, compassionate and helpful voice in the field of medicine and mental health. pca.st/episode/5972...

“.. a historic, if dubious, achievement ..” @dkthomp.bsky.social open.substack.com/pub/derektho...

New newsletter: Pilates is surging, yoga's on fire, gyms are packed, and Americans are working out more than ever. Why? www.derekthompson.org/p/the-great-...

There's a thread from Matt Stoller going around accusing me of lying and purposefully misrepresenting my conversation with the real estate analyst Lance Lambert. Well, I knew that was wrong. So I called Lance. Here's what happened next.

Antitrust critics of Abundance claim homebuilding oligopolies are holding back supply and driving up prices, esp in Texas. I did something really simple. I called up their sources. Everyone I spoke to told me the same thing: Their claims are bullshit. www.derekthompson.org/p/the-anti-a...

New pod: This is the worst housing market for first-time homebuyers in modern history. How we got here, what's happening now—prices falling in the south, rising in the north, and what comes next, with @conorsen.bsky.social podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...

This chart from @dkthomp.bsky.social is a great example of what traditional economic indicators miss when it comes to human welfare. Socializing is an extremely valuable part of life, and Americans are getting less of it these days.

The MAGA energy agenda is pretty simple. It's about combining the energy policy of the 1980s with the trade policy of the 1880s. And it's about trying so hard to own the libs at any cost, you raise electricity prices everywhere. derekthompson.substack.com/p/american-e...

If you're interested in a super-nerdy podcast about agricultural history and development (and an explanation if what yrs truly thinks Norman Borlaug actually did), this may scratch that particular itch. My thanks to @dkthomp.bsky.social for letting me ramble on.

I went to an acting camp between junior and senior year. We did a talk back with Richard Kind after a show in Chicago. "Ppl tell you 'Be an actor only if you can't do anything else,'" he said. "They're wrong." Dramatic pause. "Never be an actor. Even if you can't do anything else for shit: don't."

By targeting academics, embracing nostalgia economics, purging society of opposition ideology, rationing toys, and demolishing our global reputation at the moment we need scale, Trump has responded to the threat of China by mimicking the ghost of its Maoist past. www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...

New pod: Something very strange is happening to the labor market for college graduates. Their unemployment is rising much faster than the overall economy—in a way that's unprecedented in the last 40 yrs. Why? Harvard's David Deming and I talk thru the evidence. open.spotify.com/episode/3Feh...

This is actual US policy right now

Great episode of “Plain English” by @dkthomp.bsky.social . Rarely would I recommend a 2-hour podcast, but the stakes here deserve this type of attention. As a trainee, I need people to work for our future w/ constructive reform. The current carnage is terrifying! open.spotify.com/episode/4Pee...

Interested in learning more about the value of US university-led basic science, the importance of NIH funding, & how American science works and could work better? Checkout this podcast w/ @dkthomp.bsky.social @holdenthorp.bsky.social, & others. #research #Innovation open.spotify.com/episode/4Pee...

Enjoyed talking to @dkthomp.bsky.social about the crisis in American science. Glad to have him on our side in talking about how to protect American science in the future. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/p...

The unemployment rate for recent grads is worse now relative to the overall economy than any time on record. Three flavors of explanation: Short-term: It's Trump. Medium-term: It's the flagging college premium. Long-term: Is Gen-AI substituting for new hires? www.theatlantic.com/economy/arch...

New pod: IS THIS THE CHINESE CENTURY? That's the question I asked China experts Rush Doshi and Kurt Campbell on today's show. "The Chinese cannot believe what we are doing," they said: The Trump admin is like a CCP fantasy of accelerated American self-destruction. open.spotify.com/episode/3YB8...

New pod: What's behind the extreme rise in ADHD diagnoses in the last decade? Paul Tough joins the show, to plot a middle path between "ADHD was invented by Big Pharma to sell kids pills" vs. "There's absolutely no downside to the boom in stimulant prescriptions" open.spotify.com/episode/6Gga...

When you consider that Tesla was a world leader in its category until a top exec made a series of unforced and eccentric errors, which tarnished its image and demolished growth, all while a Chinese industrial giant threatened to leave it in the dust ... you really get what drew Musk to this admin

Washington is the shining example of what a blue state can do when it takes abundance seriously. WA has spurned the everything bagel approach of some other blue states in favor of strong, clean pro-housing laws – arguably America's strongest. CC: @ezraklein.bsky.social & @dkthomp.bsky.social

New pod: I talked to the visionary astrophysicist @saraseager.bsky.social about: - the recent announcement that we found alien life on a faraway ocean planet - why many scientists blasted the finding - the new science of detecting life on exoplanets via spectroscopy open.spotify.com/episode/1KZn...

Listen to @dkthomp.bsky.social and Jason Miller explain all sorts of dumb effects the tariffs will have that you wouldn’t think of if you’re not a trade/supply chain expert www.theringer.com/podcasts/pla...

Fun history fact I learned on a recent @dkthomp.bsky.social Plain English podcast: over 1000 economists signed an open letter to Congress in 1930 urging them to not pass the Smoot Hawley Tariffs because it would increase prices and cause major job losses. econjwatch.org/File+downloa...

New pod: "A lot of companies are definitely going to go under, that's for sure" I talked to Molson Hart, a manufacturing CEO, about how the tariffs are affecting his business. He told me America could be sleepwalking into a small business apocalypse. open.spotify.com/episode/2EP3...

If China defeated the US in war and forced us to sign a treaty that would ensure a century of Chinese dominion in science and tech, they'd be smart to force the U.S. to: - slash scientific grants in half - reduce foreign students - gut our manufacturing base Instead, we're doing it all by choice.

New pod: 'I hate to say it, but the biggest winner out of all of this? It's China' Jason Miller, a supply-chain expert at Michigan State, explains why the US is terribly positioned to win a protracted trade war against China, as it alienates its own trading allies open.spotify.com/episode/6a18...

Trump's moves are already imposing immense costs on the United States and on the world via lost scientific progress on preventing Alzheimer's, curing cancer, etc.