True that Congress hasn't declared war since WWII, but at least presidents would ask permission (via an authorization of the use of military force, or AUMF) before major military operations It may not feel like it but it is actually a big deal that Trump has now twice skipped even that cursory step

They are clearly already used to it and seem to have no problems with it. There has been no (significant) resistance to - illegal deployment on U.S. soil - extrajudicial killings in Caribbean - illegal capture of leader of foreign country

I fear a coming wave of antisemitism. Israel, Kushner, Witkoff (perhaps Miller) can all be portrayed by the neo-Nazi movement "the Jews manipulated Trump into this." Especially if this war goes terribly wrong.

This is the likeliest and costliest and bloodiest outcome in Iran with this level of military effort, even if the Pentagon does say its logistics and munitions can sustain no more than a 10-day war.

A brief guide to Iran’s complex regime ft.trib.al/3wdwpz1

My line on BBCr4 Today on the Iran strikes was this. Last June there were intensive US/Iran talks under way. Aborted by Israeli strikes on Iran which US joined. I think this is similar. The US-Iran-Oman talks seemed to be going well. Netanyahu preempted, and Trump felt he had to follow 1/5

First impression: This is regime change, lots of ways for it to go wrong, a few it could go right, but at huge risk: www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...

Congress rejected massive cuts to US science budgets for 2026, but much of the money still isn’t flowing to researchers. The culprit? The White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) is quietly slow-walking the release of funds. 🧵👇

This draft Trump EO on voting is even nuttier than you imagined. Zeroing out all voter rolls and making everyone re-register in person. Mandatory annual online re-registration. Requiring anyone casting an absentee ballot to find a notary. No dropboxes. All post-election disputes federalized. 😟

After cars came around, horses became useless, so we stopped breeding & feeding them. To wit: during the early 1900s, the US had 20-25 million horses...now we have just 2-4 million.

> @punchbowlnews.bsky.social

Since this will likely come up in the SOTU: Yes, US stock markets are up since Trump took office (14%). But in the rest of the world, markets are up WAY more. Cumulative market gains are more than triple ours (43%)

Since returning to office, Trump has added about $3 billion to his net worth. The scale of these profits, and the way he has monetized the White House to generate them, is unprecedented. Learn more in our latest Money in Politics Roundup: bit.ly/3MSYmBN

I tried to break down the specifics of Trump's unconstitutional presidency. open.substack.com/pub/goodpoli...

“We’re clearly past the point at which the community of billionaires as it exists can be [merely] cajoled into allowing the democratic process to unfold as intended, and then respecting its outcomes“ Excellent from @brianbeutler.bsky.social. Two things to add. 1/ www.offmessage.net/p/the-case-f...

Two points: *Neither getting on a plan, nor buying beer is a constitutional right *You don't need to prove citizenship to buy a beer or get on a plane - that is what the SAVE Act calls for, which will clearly disenfranchise lots of people

Trump, July 19: "All three nuclear sites in Iran were completely destroyed and/or OBLITERATED. It would take years to bring them back into service." Witkoff, Sunday: "They're probably a week away from having industrial-grade bomb-making material."

The SAVE Act is a dangerous voter suppression law poorly cloaked in concerns about election integrity. One overlooked narrative is how this operates as a key political determinant of health bc it's harder to navigate these burdens if sick/disabled. My take: mirandayaver.substack.com/p/the-save-a...

Yes, this!

New in PN: The tariffs ruling is the right result from a terrible process "Even though this particular case turned out correctly, it highlights that the six conservative justices — even the ones who ruled against Trump — have radical anti-constitutional ideas about how American democracy works."

TS LOMBARD: “.. The immediate narrative around Q4 GDP is that the shutdown did it!!!! .. The thing is, the economy is slowing .. The simple truth is less payroll, less spending.” 👀

The SAVE Act is a poll tax. New passports cost $165, renewals cost $130, birth certificates cost $15-40. So, the real purpose of the SAVE Act is to prevent poor people (and especially poor women) from voting.

And what's the objective of a war on Iran? I thought we totally destroyed Tehran's nuclear program last summer (though I suspect this is the real reason) and incapacitated their terror networks. And I thought Trump was against "stupid" "endless" wars for regime change. Seems like just another flex.

Situation in #Jalisco, Mexico appears to be very serious. Reports that Guardia Nacional UH-60 was hit by ground fire (slight damage) which indicates the cartel fighters are very heavily armed and engaging directly with security forces. 1/ www.facebook.com/share/p/16er...

The tariffs are a TRIPLE transfer of wealth from millions of consumers to few corporations: 1: tariffs raise prices on consumers & thereby raise profits for corps. 2: tariff refunds will go to corps, not consumers 3: wealthy investors (allegedly Howard Lutnick) may have purchased refund rights.

This article claims that ICE agents get a bonus for each person they detain, and there's no penalty for wrongful detention. Therefore ICE agents detain anyone for whom they can make a prima facie case. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...

The volume & geographic distribution of protest nationwide during year 1 of Trump's second term was extraordinary.

This is an excellent @propublica.org long read on one of the most dangerous men in the U.S.: Russell Vought.

Every one of these things is as much illegal hot garbage as using IEEPA. There is no sudden "international payments problem."

Airpower by itself, without skilled forces on the ground, has a terrifically awful failure rate at producing regime change, or even getting concessions, as Mike O’Hanlon and I wrote about a couple months ago in the Venezuela context: (7/11) nationalinterest.org/feature/bomb...

S&P 500 vs RoW... worst start to a year in more than 3 decades... but this chart looks much different if we used SPX EW Augur Infinity

BREAKING. Structural things remain structural

I recall that, back during the 1980s-1990s, proposals for a national ID card were furiously rejected by Evangelical Christians and the Right as "big govt" and a tool of the anti-Christ.

1/Just back from Munich Security Conference. A few takeaways: 1.Old transatlantic alliance based on taken for granted trust is over (one official described it as a funeral). 2.US might talk nice but still is on a collision course w/Europe. 3.US firms stand to lose. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/15/w...

Very good Martin Wolf column on the great fertility panic. I’ve come to agree with him that it matters far less how many people there are and far more exactly what they are doing with their time. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

New data shows #Brexit has lowered UK GDP by 6-8% over the past decade. Investment down 12-18%, employment down 3-4%. It's even worse than economists had predicted pre-referendum, because they thought there would be a bounce-back long term. "Economists were roughly right on the

For months I've banged the drum that "not sure" has become the safe harbor answer for "Republicans who know Trump's probably wrong, but don't want to admit it." Today's Economist/YouGov Poll: Is Donald Trump racist? 41% of Republicans have No Opinion. d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ec...

It's like ICE is completely ignoring every lesson that moderately competent police forces are forced to learn, like "don't do high speed chases in densely populated areas with low risk targets"

But Republicans strongly support current ICE practices, except for body cameras and judicial warrants. They appear to strongly support random stops, profiling, and masks.

The Trump economy. www.ms.now/opinion/trum...

Right-wing Heritage Foundation’s own data shows fewer than 100 noncitizens voted since 1982 (!!!) This is not a real problem. “The SAVE ACT is a Trojan horse to nationalize elections”: open.substack.com/pub/thiswill...

The main reason I think we've never had contact with extraterrestrials is if we had, Trump would be absolutely unable to resist letting it slip out at some point.

If you want to read about how our "mediocre" presidents were truly dynamic and amazing, then check out this for President's Day: www.amazon.com/Presidential...

The 19th wealthiest Americans are collectively worth over 11% of US GDP. Their politics and policy-preferences are NOT representative of the US average. If you think such inequality isn't a threat to democracy, law, and the US Constitution, then you're haven't studied history much.

And another interesting one from Ritholtz: healthcareuncovered.substack.com/p/the-mislea...

(h/t @ritholtz.bsky.social): bigthink.com/starts-with-...