Small craps the notable laggard in the last month $RTY $IWM

Private credit AUM has doubled since 2018

Bonds $AGG best year since 2020

2025 looking like an extremely normal year $SPX

Bitcoin slips to a fresh morning low

$VIX > 21

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index best in a year. Second-best since April 2022. @Teconomics

Got my $0.40/lb turkey, $0.79/box stuffing, $0.99/box chicken broth, $1.19/box mac & cheese, $0.50/can green beans, $0.29/pack gravy mix, $0.95/bag marshmallows, $2.19/can whipped cream, $1.09 pumpkin, $1.95 pie crust! #Aldi And of course, the giant $6 pumpkin pie from Sam's. ($0.11/oz)

JPMAM Kelly: "Our base case was for a soft 4Q25 followed by a stronger 1Q26. That still holds, but the swings could be more dramatic."

Wells Fargo: The cost of a traditional Thanksgiving menu has fallen by about 2 to 3% from last year "Turkey Triumph: The Bird that Beat Inflation"

Who's going to win the 2025 Toilet Bowl? Bitcoin or small caps? $IBIT $IJR

It Is a K-Shaped Economy for US Consumers $XLY $XLP The strength of higher-income household balance sheets relative to those of lower-income households is the reason consumer discretionary stocks have outperformed consumer staples in recent months. Torsten at Apollo

IG spread ticks up modestly $LQD @wsj

Bonds $AGG best year since 2020 +6.6% @barchart

$2.9 trillion in global spending on data centers. Tech companies doing God's work. @WSJ

In awe of bond issuance by big AI tech companies @WSJ

Japan 10yr fresh highs.. 1.733% @teconomics

Bitcoin +2.6% YTD.. stay tuned... I'll have a full @StockCharts write-up later today. I found 2 big technical developments.

$GOOGL the big single-stock story today.. +5% on the Berkshire bet

USA is No. 1 in ROE

GS: We have seen a significant broadening out of sector performance this year $ACWI

GS: so far there has been little in the way of IPOs in the sector and, while debt financing has started to increase, it remains much more moderate

GS: Strong positive earnings sentiment for the US

GS: Equity markets have delivered a strong year across the board SPX, STOXX 600, TOPIX, APAC...

Goldman still forecasts payroll growth to improve now through 2H26

GS: Demand for Platform Gig Services Has Held Up, But Despite the Slowdown in the Broader Labor Market in the Second Half of the Year

5-15% of the Working Age Population Participates in Gig Work

Futures little changed

Bitcoin megaphone aka broadening top pattern playing out $IBIT

Could be a mild Thanksgiving for the eastern half

Aldi, Lidl push U.S. grocery chains toward even bigger store-brand future Yay @aldiusa !

$NVDA, retailers set to report @WallStHorizon

Sept NFP due out Thursday. Consensus +50k (private +60k) GS

$NVDA and retailers' Q3 reports on gap: Guidance is gonna matter a ton.. Companies with above-consensus EPS guidance have seen a stronger reward than beats (2.5ppt vs. 1.2ppt) BofA

$TSLA an even 200x P/E

Kudos to bitcoin for not collapsing this weekend

Last 6 months: Mag 7: +27% Other 493: +10% @WisdomTreeFunds

Info Tech is 35% of the SPX, with a 31x P/E and 39% EPS growth rate @wisdomtreefunds

Earnings reactions: Better for misses in Q3 vs Q2 (still bad)

BofA: Extended Tech expected to account for >60% of S&P earnings growth in ‘25

$CAT still best in the Dow YTD $IBM $GS $JNJ ahead of $NVDA @StockCharts

$TSLA $AMZN modestly green YTD $WDC best SPX stock in 2025 so far @StockCharts

The arguments for a rebound in the economy over the coming quarters are that (1) Liberation Day was almost eight months ago, (2) fiscal and monetary policy are easy, and (3) easy financial conditions point to a reacceleration in the economy Torsten at Apollo

Japan: buybacks huge

GS bullish on Japan: We expect TOPIX to rise to 3400/3450/3600 over the next 3/6/12M $EWJ $DXJ

Gap between Mag 7 and Other 493’s earnings growth has narrowed BofA

2026 estimates have been revised up 1% since Oct 1, with the biggest upward revision in Tech

$VIX stubborn near 20, but SPX 3-month realized average stock correlation remains low GS

S&P 500 breadth remains icky GS

Top 10 stocks account for 41% of SPX market cap, 30% of EPS. Steady. GS