BofA Hartnett: Consumer discretionary has bottomed vs S&P 500 bold call

#natgas below $3 for the first time since May

Some fun with BofA's bull/bear indicator from Hartnett...

BofA: The World Cup tailwind roughly correlates with the number of games played per day the spending boost is almost over

BofA: We expect an above-consensus June retail sales report

The Asset Class Quilt of Total Returns... commodities leading YTD

There's that Super Tuesday... and other events next week...

BofA Hartnett: Trump approval ratings turning a corner

BofA: Headline CPI likely fell 0.09% m/m in June as pump prices dropped sharply. Core inflation should remain elevated at 0.28% m/m, 2.9% y/y We expect core PCE to be slightly firmer than CPI again at 0.29% m/m (3.4% y/y), strengthening the case for hikes in the near-term

Don't "K"all it a comeback... In June, higher-income households’ after-tax wage growth eased to 4.2% YoY, while that of the lower-income cohort improved to a similar level

BofAI: The “K” in spending and wage growth continues to narrow... smallest since July 2025 -lower-income households experienced the biggest spending boost, with spending up 4.8% YoY in June from 4.1% YoY in May

BofAI: Spending on discretionary services has outpaced growth in discretionary retail categories

BofAI: Discretionary services and retail spending are still holding up Services drove most of the overall YoY spending growth, though retail still contributed meaningfully

BofA: We forecast a robust June retail sales report, with and without gasoline factored in -Card spending was +6.3% in June, the strongest growth in over four years...Some of the strength in June was likely driven by online promotions and the FIFA World Cup 2026

BofA: Restaurant spending slowed in June to +2.4% m/m from +4.4% in May -Spend growth decelerates for high/mid/low income

Light tape today.. just the rig count... Super Tuesday next week with all the bank earnings, then CPI, then Warsh speaks

IEA: World oil demand set for first annual decline since 2020 on Iran war @seekingalpha

Goldman on the CPI report innards: Weak autos: Used cars (-0.5%), new cars (-0.1%), insurance (-0.1%) Benign shelter: OER (+0.23%) and rent (+0.17%) slowing Moderate travel: Airfares (+1.5%) and hotels (+0.3%) Seasonality drag: Downward pressure on communication and new cars.

Goldman: We expect a 0.11% decline in June headline CPI, +0.17 core increase Bringing YoY rates to 3.87% headline and 2.76% core Our CPI Forecast Translates to a Higher Core PCE Reading of +0.24% in June

Gas prices a dime off the low... AAA $3.884

The commodity complex is also slightly in the red Gasoline futures back below $3

Chip stocks down a touch, but light relative to recent days $SPY -0.1% $QQQ -0.5% $SMH -1.1% $EEM -0.7% @finviz_com

GS: The combined effects of AI-induced increases in memory, software, and electricity prices are adding more than 0.2pp to year-over-year core PCE inflation in the US

Ruchir Sharma: AI stocks now show signs of a bubble @seekingalpha

Florida... best real GDP growth in 2025... and it seems like it's only negative headlines about the Sunshine State these days @VisualCap @soberlook thedailyshot.com/sub...

It's going to be a very quiet Atlantic hurricane season $GNRC $USO $UNG h/t @mikefirstalert

Treasurys bounce back with oil down, strong auction

$META powerful intraday rally

Live Cattle down 9 in a row, but Cocoa continues to surge I'll take that... I buy $4 of cocoa a year Augur Infinity augurdigest.com/p/au...

S&P 500 best close since June 15

Apple:316 Record high, cause Wall Street said so

$AAPL very close to a record high... and added as a new short idea at @Hedgeye @seekingalpha

30yr yield falls for the first day in 8

$XLF golden cross ahead of bank earnings on Tuesday... of course, buying on the death cross would have been a lucrative play

Mag 7 catching a sneaky intraday bid... this is the 4hr performance heat map... @finviz_com

#natgas pummeled today.. a 6-week low

$IWM (with a ton of AI now gone) competing with $QQQ for the top spot today @Koyfincharts

$COST among the S&P 500 losers after a soft June sales report

Dollar $DXY quiet consolidation after the breakout last month... still holding 100.6 support... worth watching into earnings season... and CPI/PPI/Retail Sales next week

Oil sinks to LoD, under $72 on WTI

$VIX back under 16

$IYT Transports very close to a record high

$SMH massive day-to-day volatility.... 4% swings are the norm

30yr TIPS yield highest since 2008... competition for stocks 2.889%

Software sagging $IGV

Consumer stocks soft, chips rockin.. $META weighs on $XLC

Chips (and soda) trading lower today $PEP

$QQQ almost 3% off the low yesterday morning

A bit July Tuesday next week

Treasurys $GOVT tend to perform well May-August 2yr yield backing off today... more from me on @stockcharts: articles.stockcharts...