The Fed targets 2% headline PCE Price Index YoY inflation ... 3.5% as of March... we'll get the April read on Thursday Augur Infinity

Global earnings growth is taking flight after a long period of post-GFC stagnation $ACWI $VEU $VTI JPMAM

4 in 10 Americans approve of Trump's performance... less than 6 months until the midterms. About the same as Biden's approval 4 years ago.

$DXY $USD dollar index down 0.3% vs Friday... maybe the most stable 12 months on record for the greenback 96.50-101.50

S&P 500 forward P/E heat map... $NVDA 17.5x on out-year estimates @finviz_com

$UFO ETF saucy... on huge dollar-volume lately @EricBalchunas $ARKX $NASA $SPCX

Emerging Markets just 11.8x earnings... but is the P/E low because the market sniffs out a cyclical earnings peak? JPMAM

Lots of Fedspeak on tap h/t @wallstjesus

SpaceX 91x ttm P/S ratio h/t @charliebilello SPX 3.5x

Global long bond index soars to an 18-year high Stocks... record highs h/t @acemaxx Kinda one of those 'you can be right, or you can make money' things

US breakeven inflation rates likely being dragged higher by global yields.. imagine how the US inflation outlook would appear if UK and Japan were under control... h/t Augur Infinity

📈 3 forces pushing yields higher across the curve: ⏱️ Front-end: Sticky inflation ("higher for longer") 💻 Belly: Heavy hyperscaler corporate issuance 🏦 Long-end: More Treasury supply + less Fed demand Torsten at Apollo

S&P 500 futures record high, Dow futures > 51k

$4.507 AAA gas price... sure looks like more downside is coming... perhaps down to $4.15 by mid-June if futures hold current levels

S&P 500 futures +1% Nikkei record high > 65k

Oil weakness persisted overnight WTI, Brent -6% Gasoline futures off 16 cents

Light data week, but April PCE Thursday... tons of Fedspeak

July RBOB becomes the prompt gasoline futures contract later this week... down at $3.21, implying $4.15 at the pump in a couple of weeks (down 40 cents from the recent high)

S&P 500 futures +0.5%

Oil -5%

but, over time, as energy spending as a share of disposable income has declined, that has actually helped lower-income households the most

CPI actually runs hotter than PCE, on average

"FOMO vs FEMO (Fabulous Earnings Momentum)." ".. The entire rally has been driven by forward earnings. The multiple has contracted. FOMO inflates the P/E. This market did the opposite. That is why we are not in the bubble camp. FOMO is based on hope and hype. FEMO is based on fundamentals."

10yr TIPS yield of 2.15% is actually above the historical average JPMAM Don't dismiss bonds

Bad vibes can mean good returns. 📉➡️📈 Historically, buying stocks when consumer sentiment hits a trough yields an average 12-month S&P 500 return of +24.1%. Buying at a sentiment peak? Just +4.8%. Record low May sentiment, record high stock prices though JPMAM

Energy costs hit lowest-income households hardest. 💸 In 2024, the bottom 20% of earners spent a massive 17.0% of their total income on energy (gasoline, electricity, and natural gas)—compared to just 2.7% for the top 20%. JPMAM

My US retail gasoline top-call yesterday morning looking better today... $4.515 AAA average today.. down about a nickel from the cycle high... we'll see what Tuesday and beyond hold

US federal net debt is on track to smash records. 📉 According to CBO forecasts, the debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to climb from 99.4% in 2025 to a massive 120.2% by 2036—surpassing even post-WWII peaks (back when we had insanely high GDP growth) JPMAM

Household debt service ratio remains below pre-pandemic levels JPMAM

AI adoption across industries (April 2026 vs. next 6 months outlook): 🌐 Information: 42% 💼 Professional/Tech: 36% 🏦 Finance/Insurance: 33% 📉 Total Avg: 20% 🏗️ Construction/Transport: <10% Growth is expected across every single sector over the next half year. 🚀 JPMAM

Momentum +22% YTD $SPMO $MTUM $VFMO @stockcharts articles.stockcharts...

Hyperscaler FCF upturn imminent? 📈 Operating Cash Flow: Surging toward 40%+ 🏗️ Capital Expenditures: Skyrocketing to a record ~38% for data centers/AI 📉 Free Cash Flow: Squeezed to a bottom of ~2% before a projected recovery by 2028 JPMAM

S&P 500 sector valuations... Financials, Energy remain very cheap. $XLF $XLE Industrials priciest... but you get some AI-buildout pixie dust there $XLI GS

SPX indicated +1.5% in the last 24hrs on Hyperliquid This is a chart of the top 10 most active perp contracts on there... Brent oil -7.5% d/d

Capital spending components as a % of GDP since 1947: 🔹 Intellectual Property & R&D: Gradual, relentless rise to the top (~5.5%). ⚙️ Equipment: Historically dominant, but structural decline over the last two decades. 🏢 Structures: Hovering near historic lows. JPMAM

S&P 500 equity risk premium historically low, just under 300bps. Rising real yields make bonds increasingly attractive, but SPX earnings yield still decent near 4.8% with big EPS growth ahead GS

Contraction in the working-age population is expected in the next decade JPMAM

Valuations holding steady... rising EPS, rising stock prices GS Nasdaq 27x SPX 21x $RSP $MDY 16x

Business fixed investment contributed a massive 1.4% to real GDP in Q1... a larger growth driver than consumption JPMAM #AI

Third shooting incident near Trump in a month ends in deadly exchange A man who allegedly opened fire near a White House security checkpoint on Saturday evening was killed after Secret Service officers @seekingalpha

S&P 500 +10% YTD (total return) through last week, max drawdown 9% I think we'd take that for a midterm election year! JPMAM

The median S&P 500 stock P/E has been steady for the last decade.. mid-high teens $RSP $SPY JPMAM

AI hyperscalers trade at a 24.7x P/E S&P 500 Equal Weight 16.3x JPMAM

Top 10 companies by market cap... only $MSFT remains from the 2005 stack JPMAM From $3.2 trillion in 2015 to $25 trillion today

Tight Mag 7 performance distribution YTD JPMAM

US consumer spending & the K 🔝 Top 20%: 51% of income | 38% of spending 👥 Middle 20% (40-60%): 14% of income | 17% of spending 📉 Bottom 20%: 3% of income | 9% of spending JPMAM

Mag 7 EPS growth expected to be 2x that of the Other 493 this year... as SpaceX $SPCX hits the on-deck circle

The 10 largest S&P 500 stocks trade 25.4x earnings Other 490 18.9x JPMAM

S&P 500 indicated +1.3% vs 4pm Friday WTI crude oil trading down near $91 this morning on Hyperliquid Augur Infinity

S&P 500 indicated +110pts... we'll see where we are 24 hours from now (let alone 4pm Monday) h/t Augur Infinity