The Fed’s outlook for GDP growth isn’t very optimistic — below 2% for the next 3 years. My @morningjoe-msnbc.bsky.social Chart

Yesterday’s rate cut doesn’t mean inflation is coming down ¬— the Fed kept its 2025 PCE forecast the same and raised its 2026 forecast. My @morningjoe-msnbc.bsky.social Chart

Jobs are getting harder to find, and more and more Americans are remaining unemployed for long periods of time. My @morningjoe-msnbc.bsky.social Chart

One marker of a weakening labor market: there are now more job seekers than job openings in the US. My @morningjoe-msnbc.bsky.social Chart

Powell called yesterday’s reduction a “risk-management” cut, signaling that the Fed’s now more worried about the labor market than inflation. (Despite rising inflation in recent months.) My @morningjoe-msnbc.bsky.social Chart

The Fed cut rates by 25bps yesterday, as expected. It also increased its expectations for future cuts. My @morningjoe-msnbc.bsky.social Chart

The Fed maintained its projection of 4.5% unemployment for 2025, but lowered its projections for the next two years.

The Fed held its inflation projection for 2025 steady at 3%, but increased expectations for 2026 to 2.6%.

The Fed is now projecting an additional rate cut by the end of the year, lowering its projection by .3%.

The Fed raised their GDP projections, but the forecast for 2025 is still well-below December 2024 levels.

The Fed cut interests rates by 0.25%, as expected.

ChatGPT usage has skyrocketed over the last year, especially for non-work purposes, which now accounts for 73% of messages.

This is a terrible idea. The more information that investors receive, the more transparent and efficient markets become, lowering the cost of capital for good performers.

Consumer sentiment dropped for the second month in a row in September, driven by Republican consumers.

CPI inflation increased for the fourth month in a row in August, reaching 2.9%.

Since covid, America’s historical agricultural trade surplus has turned into a deficit, with imports surging and exports stalling. (And Trump’s tariffs haven’t helped the situation.)

It’s important to start thinking about what AI will do to inequality — upper middle-class workers are the most exposed to AI automation, while the richest and poorest Americans will be less-affected.

The next decade is a pivotal time for the impact of AI on the economy. Economists at Wharton predict that AI’s boost to productivity growth will peak over the next 10-15 years.

The New York Fed's measure of job-finding expectations is at a record low.

Job growth in 2025 so far has been dominated by the education & health sectors.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, it's highest level since 2021.

Jobs growth remained extraordinarily low in August, at 22K payroll additions.

Inequality is going in the wrong direction: while the richest millennials are wealthier than the richest boomers were at their age, the average millennial is worse off. My @morningjoe-msnbc.bsky.social Chart

One reason why Americans might feel that they can’t improve their standard of living is that upward mobility has in fact become less and less common. My @morningjoe-msnbc.bsky.social Chart

Homes have become so unaffordable that in 2024, the average first-time home buyer was 38 years old. My @morningjoe-msnbc.bsky.social Chart

In 1990, the average American had to pay 3x their income for the average home. Now the ratio has grown to 5x. My @morningjoe-msnbc.bsky.social Chart

One reason why consumer sentiment is low is that, since covid, real income growth has remained relatively meager. My @morningjoe-msnbc.bsky.social Chart

Americans’ feelings about their economic futures have dropped off a cliff since covid — now only 25% think they have a good chance of increasing their standard of living. My @morningjoe-msnbc.bsky.social Chart

In July, the surplus of job openings to unemployed job seekers closed for the first time in over 4 years.

Job openings dropped to 7.18M in July, undershooting expectations.

PCE inflation held steady at 2.6% in July.

Trump famously compared America to a department store where he gets to set the prices. In my latest for @nytopinion.nytimes.com, I explain why that’s a terrible idea. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/28/o...

In my latest for @nytopinion.nytimes.com, I warn against Trump’s increasing forays into state-guided capitalism. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/28/o...

When I led the government’s bailout of Chrysler and GM over 15 years ago, our goal was to save an iconic industry with as little intervention as possible. Trump’s economic management couldn’t be farther from this approach. In my latest for @nytopinion.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2025/08/28/o...

Trump has turned the party of limited government into the party of economic intervention. More in my latest for @nytopinion.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2025/08/28/o...

Despite backsliding in the US, global investment in renewable energy stayed strong in the first half of 2025. This is the energy of the future, and the GOP is letting the rest of the world develop it.

When the labor market is hot, workers who switch jobs can usually expect a pay bump. Right now, job switchers are experiencing the same wage growth as stayers, a sign that employers have the upper hand.

New evidence of AI’s impact on the job market — Stanford economists found that early career employment has weakened in occupations vulnerable to AI automation (eg: software engineers and customer service reps)

The Conference Board's labor differential continued to decline August, with Americans increasingly thinking that jobs are hard to get.

The Conference Board's consumer inflation expectations rose in August for the first time since April.

Continuing jobless claims rose in April, and have remained elevated since.

Powell’s speech will be made amid a heightened period of uncertainty for the Fed, from increasing levels of dissent, to lukewarm economic data, to unprecedented political threats to central bank independence.

Markets will be watching Powell’s speech closely tomorrow, as expectations for a rate cut next meeting have started to slip.

I joined the latest episode of On with Kara Swisher to talk about how to think about Trump’s impact on the economy and what’s next for the Democratic party. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/w...

Trump seems to be doing everything he can to upend the American economy, but the stock market keeps rising. I joined @onwithkaraswisher.bsky.social this week to explain what’s going on. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/w...

I joined On with Kara Swisher this week to discuss the current economic moment, from the booming stock market to Trump’s chaotic economic policies. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/w...

Restaurant reservations in DC plunged after Trump announced his takeover. It’s no surprise that rolling out troops into the streets dampens consumer appetite.

Another sign of an expensive stock market: the PE ratio is far above the historical average.

The S&P 500’s price-to-book ratio is at its highest level since the dot-com bubble, a sign that stocks might be overvalued.

One reason why the stock market is doing well: recession fears among US companies have been fading.