American immigrants are upwardly mobile. While first-generation immigrants earn less than the average American, their children go on to earn more. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Trump justifies his brutal immigration tactics by painting illegal immigrants as criminals. But in reality, they commit fewer crimes than native-born Americans. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

America is great because people come from all over the world to start businesses here. Nearly half of unicorn company founders are immigrants. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Immigrants work in crucial jobs across the American economy — they grow our food, take care of our elderly, build our homes, and tend to our sick. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Without immigration, the American population is expected to start shrinking by 2030. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

In 2024, immigrants accounted for the largest share of the American population since the early 1900s. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

CPI declined more than expected in January, to 2.4%.

The unemployment rate dropped for the second month in a row, to 4.3%.

Payroll growth rose to 130K in January, its highest level since Trump took office.

Trump needs to get serious about competing with China. (And that doesn’t involve more tariffs.) More in my latest for @nytopinion.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2026/02/10/o...

When it comes to competing with China, punitive trade policies are a distraction. Instead, we need to beat China at its own game. More in latest for @nytopinion.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2026/02/10/o...

The only time in recent history that more Republicans retired from the House was the 2018 midterms, when a blue wave fueled by backlash to the Trump admin swept Dems back into control of the House. cc: @nbcnews.com

In the first third of FY2026, federal spending on Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, defense, and interest all grew substantially, while the rest of the budget took a cut.

New data shows that over 86% of ICE arrests didn’t involve anyone accused or convicted of a violent crime. cc: @cbsnews.com.web.brid.gy

Donald Trump is not beating China. In my latest for @nytopinion.nytimes.com, I explain where he’s gone wrong. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/10/o...

If Donald Trump wants to fend off Chinese threats to American preeminence, he needs to stop vacillating between trade wars and trade negotiations and focus on getting our own house in order. More in my latest for @nytopinion www.nytimes.com/2026/02/10/o...

Consumer sentiment inched upwards in February.

The gap between unemployed job seekers and job openings is widening. There are now 1.15 job seekers for every opening.

Job openings in the US dropped to 6.5M in December, and November's numbers were revised downwards.

Trump loves to boast that he’s won trillions of new investments in the US, but if so, it hasn’t shown up in the data yet. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Trump loves to fabricate astronomical investment numbers — his latest is $18T. The White House website reports about half that amount, and even that is likely an exaggeration. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Trump’s manufacturing renaissance has yet to materialize. In fact, America lost 68K manufacturing jobs in 2025. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Trump claims that factories are being constructed across America, but in reality, spending on manufacturing-related construction has declined during his administration. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Before Trump took office, retail prices were trending downwards. His tariffs reversed that pattern. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Trump likes to complain that he inherited the worst inflation in history, but the truth is that he started his term with inflation at a manageable 3%. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Welfare fraud should always be taken seriously, but the right’s characterization of it as an immigrant problem is completely off-base — US citizens account for 95% of fraud losses. cc: @cato.org

Instead of chasing quixotic wealth taxes, those who want the rich to pay their fair should focus on this: low capital gains rates under-tax a huge portion of income for the highest-earning Americans. cc: @taxfoundation.bsky.social

I’ll join The Common Good on Wednesday 2/4 to discuss my forecast for the economy in 2026. RSVP for the in-person lunch at the link below. www.thecommongoodus.org/upcoming-eve...

My weekly blogs on my @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social charts are now on substack. Today, I explained the Fed's decision to pause interest rate cuts. open.substack.com/pub/stevenra...

Interestingly, while economic indicators are relatively stable, consumer confidence has been steadily dropping. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Employment growth numbers since liberation day average slightly above zero. When taking into account predicted downward revisions, the data says we’re losing jobs. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

GDP growth can remain strong despite a weak labor market because productivity is high — each existing worker is producing more, but we’re not hiring many new workers. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

GDP growth remained relatively strong in 2025. That’s due in part to a ton of AI-related investment. (In Q2, it accounted for nearly a third of growth.) My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Inflation is projected to slowly, steadily decline in 2026. New Fed rate cuts are conditional on that happening. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

The Fed forecasts only 2 cuts over the next 3 years, so rates won’t drop close to pre-covid levels any time in the foreseeable future. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

The Fed left rates unchanged, at 3.75%.

The Conference Board's labor differential steeply dropped this month, as fewer and fewer Americans think that jobs are plentiful.

Consumer confidence plunged this month, hitting a 12-year low.

It is true that more and more American homes sales are going to investors. But they’re not the institutional investors that Trump wants to target. They’re actually medium and small investors. cc: @voxdotcom.bsky.social

This chart explains how the economy can continue to grow, even as many Americans struggle to make ends meet: the richest fifth of Americans account for more than half of spending. cc: @axios.com

This tax season, Americans are going to see a boost in their tax returns due to OBBBA’s tax cuts. That might lift public sentiment on affordability a bit. cc: @taxfoundation.bsky.social

America definitely needs to make the wealthy pay their fair share, but California’s wealth tax proposal isn't the best option. I joined Emmanuel Saez and @crampell.bsky.social for an @nytopinion.nytimes.com roundtable to debate the merits of the plan. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/23/o...

A great chart from @piie.com on how the relationship between hiring and unemployment has changed since the pandemic. Low unemployment no longer means increased hiring — that’s why the economy may feel great for some and terrible for others.

PCE inflation was 2.8% in November.

The anticipated Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs pertains to his use of IEEPA. Blocking his use of the law would majorly impact tariff rates — IEEPA accounts for 55% of tariffs collected last year. cc: @taxfoundation.bsky.social

This can’t be serious – I can’t think of a more ridiculous reason for imposing tariffs. www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

On Kara Swisher's podcast, I asked Ro Khanna about some problems with California’s proposed wealth tax. It’s great to hear his considered thoughts on the plan. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/r...

Trump’s housing proposals – like most of his economic initiatives – sound big but won’t make any significant progress on affordability for Americans. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

If we want to ease home prices, we need to increase supply. Estimates put the shortage at anywhere between 2 and 5 million homes. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Donald Trump’s housing proposals so far fail to address the root of the problem: America hasn’t been building enough houses for over a decade. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart