Consumption growth rose to a 3.5% annual rate in Q3, but remains below GDP growth and 2024 consumption growth.

GDP growth rose to 4.3% in Q3 of 2025.

In 2025, the Trump Administration and a Republican Congress rolled back much of America’s progress on clean energy, pushing greenhouse gas emissions projections by 24%.

In 2025, America saw the highest number of measles cases in over 30 years. That’s just a preview of what’s to come as RFK Jr continues his rollback of vaccine guidance.

Two weeks ago, I explained on @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social that you can’t have more than a 100% decline in the price of something. Yet Trump keeps talking about price declines of 500% or more. He may be mathematically illiterate but doesn’t he have a staff?

AI isn’t going to eliminate all jobs. In the next 10 years, we’ll see employment growth in the healthcare, infrastructure, and computer science, and financial sectors. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Another sign of future labor market downturn: unemployed workers are taking longer to find jobs. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Health care and social assistance have led employment growth this year. Despite Trump’s efforts, manufacturing saw among the worst job losses. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Employment growth since “Liberation Day” has been very close to zero, and — based on Powell’s predictions for data corrections — potentially negative. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Unemployment rates for Black workers and young workers have risen particularly sharply this year — a harbinger of future pain in the broader labor market. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

November inflation came in lower than expected, dropping to 2.7%

I had a great conversation on the economic year in review with John Molner on @katiecouric.bsky.social's substack livestream yesterday, covering everything from tariffs to affordability to AI. youtu.be/7EHURcXnUfs?...

This afternoon, I’ll join @katiecouric.bsky.social's substack livestream to review 2025’s biggest economic, business, and financial developments. Tune in at 5pm EST substack.com/@katiecouric

The new jobs numbers put post-liberation day job growth at an anemic 17K per month. But Fed Chair Powell warned that the true number may be about 60K lower, which would mean a loss of 43K jobs/month.

The new jobs numbers put post-liberation day job growth at an anemic 17K per month. But Fed Chair Powell warned that the true number may be about 60K lower, which would mean a loss of 43K jobs/month.

Excluding covid, the unemployment rate is at its highest level in over 8 years. The labor market is deteriorating particularly quickly for young workers, who are facing a 10.6% unemployment rate.

Excluding the healthcare sector, the US has lost 85,000 jobs this year

US payrolls grew by 64K in November, but shrunk by 105K in October.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, higher than expected.

Harvard’s Pricing Lab data shows that goods prices – which were previously declining – have been on the rise since Trump started his trade war. Even domestic goods prices rose, though by a smaller amount.

Large-cap CEOs are feeling pessimistic about 2026, with more executives expecting the economy to worsen than improve. Interestingly, mid-cap CEOs and investors are far more bullish. cc: Teneo

Yesterday, Powell said that payrolls maybe overstated by about 60K per month. That would leave us with net negative job growth since April.

It was a year of internal disagreement for the FOMC — we haven’t seen this many dissenting Governor votes in 32 years. Total Governor & President votes are at a 12-year high.

AI may save Trump’s GDP numbers, but it won’t do much good for employment, at least not in the short-run. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Since last year, GDP and inflation forecasts for 2026 have risen, but so has projected unemployment. The explanation? Higher productivity. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

The FOMC expects just one cut next year. Trump will get to appoint a new chair midway through and will definitely seek to lower that rate forecast. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

The Fed cut rates by 25 bps, as expected.

The were 7.67M job openings in October, essentially unchanged from the previous month.

The global mortality rate for children under 5 is projected to increase in 2025 -- for the first time in decades. Moreover, the projected death rate by 2030 is 16% higher than last year. cc: @gatesfoundation.bsky.social

Despite Trump’s tariffs, China’s goods trade surplus topped $1 trillion in the first 11 months of 2025. Meanwhile, the US trade deficit continues to widen. cc: @bloomberg.com

Consumer inflation expectations dropped to 4.1% in December.

Consumer sentiment rose in December, for the first time in 5 months.

PCE inflation continued its upward climb in September, reaching 2.8%.

Despite his Wharton education, Trump can’t do basic math — he continuously insists that prices can drop more than 100%, which is impossible. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Trump claimed that health insurance stocks have risen 1000%. The reality is quite the opposite. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Since Trump took office, only upper-class wages have outpaced inflation. Everyone else is losing purchasing power. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Tariffs are not going to eliminate income taxes — they would need to bring in 10x more revenue for that to happen. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Trump hasn’t lowered inflation. If anything, he’s raised it. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Trump continues to claim he inherited the worst inflation in history, even though it’s remotely true. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

This fall’s shutdown is in the past, but the issue of expiring ACA subsidies is still unresolved. Congress has until the end of the month to prevent premium hikes for millions of Americans.

S&P 500 was essentially flat in November, in its worst month since April.

Despite jobs growth outperforming expectations, September's unemployment rose by more than expected, reaching 4.4%, its highest level since 2021.

Payroll growth rose to 119K in September, exceeding expectations.

Despite Trump's popularity in the crypto community, bitcoin prices are lower than they were when he took office.

Mayor-elect Mamdani hopes to raise the corporate tax to match New Jersey’s 11.5%. That would move NY from the 17th highest state corporate tax in the nation to tie for #1.

The post-GFC era has seen relatively sluggish productivity growth. AI stands to bring back the progress. My @morningjoe-msnbc.bsky.social Chart

One way to think about the benefits of AI is this: innovation lowers prices for everything from phone calls to TVs. My @morningjoe-msnbc.bsky.social Chart

While technological progress involves some job loss, it also creates new jobs. Those in the tech, clean energy, and health sectors are set to grow fastest. My @morningjoe-msnbc.bsky.social Chart

Creative destruction is part of progress. We no longer have telephone operators, but calls are now cheaper and faster. My @morningjoe-msnbc.bsky.social Chart

Of course, that doom didn’t come to pass — payrolls increased and unemployment dropped. My @morningjoe-msnbc.bsky.social Chart