Rising inflation and gas prices aren’t the only economic challenges arising from the Iran war. Mortgage rates have risen 4 weeks in a row since Trump started the conflict; the average 30-year rate is now 6.38%. @wsj.com

Trump bragged that his tariffs are making so much money, he will be able to send stimulus checks to every American. The truth: tariff revenue is a drop in the bucket in reducing the federal deficit. @piie.com

Trump hasn’t delivered on his promises to working Americans. In his 1st year, the gap in spending growth between the wealthy, middle class & poor has widened, and income growth for the rich has surpassed everyone else by the largest margin since 2015. Source: Bank of America

U.S. consumers will be among the hardest hit by Trump’s tariff policies & the Iran war. The OECD raised its U.S. inflation estimation for this year to 4.2% — an increase of 1.2 percentage points, the 4th largest uptick among all G20 economies. CC @oecd-ocde.bsky.social

Oil shocks don’t just drive up inflation. They also increase unemployment. In the context of an already weak labor market, GS estimates the Iran oil shock will increase the unemployment rate by 20-40 basis points by the end of the year. Source: Goldman Sachs

Trump was elected on promises to help working Americans catch up. His policies are having the opposite effect. Together, his tariffs and “One Big Beautiful Bill” will decrease incomes for the poorest Americans and disproportionately benefit the highest earners. @taxpolicycenter.bsky.social

US wealth inequality has skyrocketed in recent decades. We need more focus building wealth for American families in an equitable matter — and less on wars, tariffs, and ICE chaos. CC @wsj.com

President Trump’s approval rating has hit its lowest point in his second administration as the war takes its toll on his standing with the electorate. CC @reuters.com

Suspicious high-volume trades before major POTUS announcements have been a disturbing pattern during the Trump admin. Monday was no different as nearly half a billion $ in oil futures trading occurred irregularly just 15 minutes before Trump’s comments pointing to de-escalation in Iran. Source: FT

Trump’s war in Iran is putting extreme pressure on global oil supplies, driving up crude prices that now may stay higher for longer. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Rising gas prices caused by the war are already hurting Americans’ bottom line — in both expensive and affordable states. On average, Americans are paying almost $1 more per gallon than they were last month. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Despite investors’ previous hopes for rate cuts, Trump’s war has worsened the Fed outlook — with markets now not expecting further cuts this year (or next). My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

The Fed bumped up its inflation expectation in March, finding that that the war will increase costs for consumers, as higher oil and gas prices filter through the economy. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Treasury yields have been up dramatically since the war started as investors fear the effects of inflation. While Trump’s announcement yesterday produced a quick drop in yields, Iran’s denial that talks are underway leaves lots of uncertainty. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Stocks have been cratering since Trump started his reckless war. Yesterday, he tried to reverse course, but markets are still worried. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Unemployment ticked back upwards to 4.4% in February.

The US shed 92K jobs from its payrolls in February, significantly undershooting expectations.

One of Trump’s favorite lies has been that he’s sent gas prices below $2/gallon. That was never true, but it’s even less believable now that his attack on Iran has sent prices skyrocketing.

The breakeven rate, which captures the market’s inflation expectations, rose on the news of Trump’s Iran attack. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Donald Trump’s Iran strike conflicts with his aspirations for ultra-low interest rates. Markets have raised their rate expectations for the next couple years. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

In the last 5 years, America has become a net exporter of petroleum. That emboldened Trump’s risky actions in the Middle East. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Oil prices surged upon Trump’s attack on Iran, and Americans are already seeing the effects at the gas pump. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Most of the oil exported from the Middle East travels through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump’s new war stands to grind that traffic to a halt. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Following Trump’s attack, Iran has essentially shut down traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about a fifth of global oil production. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Trump continues to claim that other countries pay tariffs. A recent study found that nearly all of his tariffs are being paid by Americans. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Trump said that tariffs may replace the income tax. That’s ridiculous. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Trump promised that new factories and jobs would pour into the US, but spending on manufacturing-related construction actually decreased last year (after booming under Biden). My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Trump painted a picture of an American economy flush with jobs. In reality, he brought job growth to a halt. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Trump claimed that he inherited record inflation and then sent it plummeting. He started his term with modestly elevated inflation and, by some metrics, actually raised it. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Trump claimed that he inherited a stagnant economy and turned it into a roaring one. In reality, he oversaw a decrease in GDP growth. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Consumer confidence rebounded in February, but still remains below end-of-2025 levels.

I joined Henry Blodget on his latest Solutions podcast to discuss my recent op-ed for @nytopinion.nytimes.com on Trump’s missteps in competing with China. open.spotify.com/episode/63Zv...

Underwater on virtually every major issue, Trump will have a tough time convincing America that the State of the Union is strong tomorrow night. cc: @washingtonpost.com

At his State of the Union tomorrow, Trump is sure to brag that his economy is booming. But Americans know that jobs are hard to find these days — under Trump’s watch, the number of unemployed job seekers surpassed the number of openings.

I joined Charlie Rose to discuss how Trump’s tariffs – many of which were just struck down by the Supreme Court – are not doing anything to protect America from Chinese competition. www.youtube.com/watch?v=O8YW...

I joined Charlie Rose on Friday to talk about the wide-ranging significance of the landmark Supreme Court decision striking down Trump’s IEEPA tariffs. www.youtube.com/watch?v=ziUi...

By striking down Trump's IEEPA tariffs today, the Supreme Court nearly halved the effective tariff rate, down to 9.1% from 16.9%. But rates are still far above pre-2025 levels.

PCE inflation rose to 2.9% in December, exceeding expectations.

GDP growth dropped to 1.4% in the last quarter of 2025, bringing growth for the year to 2.2%.

Entitlements and interest are eating the federal budget, while defense and other discretionary spending are set to drop (as a share of GDP). My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Federal debt held by the public is forecasted to reach 156% by 2050. And unfortunately, projections have historically undershot reality. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

If you hear the Trump administration bragging about decreased deficits in 2025, don’t be fooled: the temporary decrease will be offset by future years of elevated deficits thanks to their expensive tax bill. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Despite the GOP’s efforts to slash the budget, deficits are set to increase in 2026, mostly due to their One Big Beautiful Bill. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Trump sought deep cuts to the EPA, HUD, CDC, NIH, and more. Congress by and large left spending levels unchanged. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

American immigrants are upwardly mobile. While first-generation immigrants earn less than the average American, their children go on to earn more. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Trump justifies his brutal immigration tactics by painting illegal immigrants as criminals. But in reality, they commit fewer crimes than native-born Americans. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

America is great because people come from all over the world to start businesses here. Nearly half of unicorn company founders are immigrants. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Immigrants work in crucial jobs across the American economy — they grow our food, take care of our elderly, build our homes, and tend to our sick. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

Without immigration, the American population is expected to start shrinking by 2030. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart

In 2024, immigrants accounted for the largest share of the American population since the early 1900s. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart