TRAN straight down, ITB straight down. but they're apart of the real economy. and we are mostly asset based economy now. so a trillion dollar market cap EV company with zero fundamentals is up 4%, and SPX is green

Of the two largest homebuilders in the US, the stock of the "build less" builder is massively outperforming the "build more" builder:

> @ljkawa.bsky.social

Residential construction weakness in 2H 2022-2024 mostly served to keep the economy from overheating but now it's actively contributing to recession risk.

we already give Messi a hundred mill to walk around the pitch in Cincinnati what more do they want

Something you see from investors as well as people frustrated about the cost of homes when it comes to the appropriate level of interest rates and recession risk is an unfounded view that in a recession, they'd be the ones to outperform/keep their jobs rather than be the bagholders/job losers.

Shutdown odds up to ~70% on Kalshi. Congress is out of session this week so those odds probably grind higher into the weekend:

Me in @opinion.bloomberg.com: The Fed should keep cutting until there are clear signs of positive momentum in the housing and labor markets www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

The Chiefs will probably find a way to fraudulently knock the Bills or Ravens out of the playoffs but they look so bad right now.

I’m going to dress up as this for Halloween:

This imo was a big legacy of the GFC — in the mid-2000’s you’d see 20-somethings “gamble” on marriage and homeownership (and pregnancy) in a way that’s much less common now. www.wsj.com/lifestyle/re...

“People who listed Microsoft and other tech companies on their résumés were applying to become baristas.” www.wsj.com/tech/seattle...

So many opinion pieces about Twitter Bluesky and so few on how Dems aren’t good at video/algorithmic social bc the writers themselves aren’t on there I guess

I don’t know if this is true but I will click on this gimmicky slop all day long: www.politico.com/news/2025/09...

Clemson gonna hit the portal for a new coach.

“The 6 7 meme is going crazy. Steal a brain rot made a brain rot called 6 7.” Okay, this is unintelligible.

I’m at 80%+ that we get at least a nominal shutdown. Much less clear whether Dems are willing to accept a shutdown that causes real pain though:

The Lennar call made clear today that despite what equity investors might be pricing, the companies actually doing residential construction are cutting back.

For the internet friends you talk on the phone with how many rings do you give before you hang up? For me it’s 3 tops.

Mamdani going on Pablo Torre shows he genuinely has his finger on the pulse.

The Lennar CEO just shouted out Abundance on the earnings call.

$LEN: "Even though mortgage rates have edged down...stronger sales have not yet followed."

There’s probably something here about whether the early-mid 2000’s or the late 2010’s were your (traumatic) formative years for politics.

It feels like we’re here again: youtu.be/m0UB3LD2EoA?...

Teamsters endorsing Vivek: www.semafor.com/article/09/1...

Got my One Battle After Another tickets for next Thursday. Look forward to seeing other enjoyers of the Ringer podcast network in their 40’s.

If she ever has a lane it’s 2028. By the 2030’s this moment of fluidity will have passed and there will be a new establishment we’ll be drafting from: www.axios.com/2025/09/19/a...

I continue to believe for the kind of new politics most people on this platform want (even if there are disagreements on the issues), you should act as if the NYT/CNN/ABC/NBC/CBS don’t exist.

It’s like everyone agreed it was finally acceptable to snipe at each other:

#Fed Chair Jay Powell speech next Tuesday in Providence, RI, 12:30 pm. On the economic outlook.

*LENNAR SEES 4Q DELIVERIES 22,000 TO 23,000, EST. 25,656

If this is true then the only two possible outcomes are Schumer swallowing a clean CR, which he has said he won’t do, or a shutdown:

Darden doesn’t believe the current level of beef inflation is sustainable because consumers can’t handle it, we’ll get demand destruction at some point:

As someone who’s never had a fancy credit card, is AmEx better thought of as a membership club rather than a credit card points program where the “club” is access to travel/dining/events rather than a gym?

Tough times for the American eater: *DARDEN SLUMPS 8% AFTER FIRST QUARTER RESULTS

Trump's numbers on inflation continue to plunge, which is hard to do:

Reasons markets might not like the “risk management cut” language: -Suggests a floor of 3% Fed Funds rather than a base case of 3% -If you’re worried about the labor market/recession, the Fed doesn’t share your concern yet

“A *clearly* restrictive level” -Powell

They’re basically running back the 2024 cuts even though the setup is different.

The 2026 SEP/dots are a mess, throw those into the trash.

Just saw Miran’s clown 2025 dot.

Big news for the Leo/PTA hive:

A fun thing about being in a very particular demographic is you know your audience:

A startup might bring the dodo bird back, in case you were dooming about a lack of dodo birds in the world: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Building permits in the South:

Stephen A. Smith now makes $40 million/year and is focused on moving into politics: www.nytimes.com/athletic/663...

New recent lows for 30-year yields:

All of the usual caveats about issue polling apply, but a Data for Progress poll shows Dem voters willing to shut the government down unless the GOP makes changes: www.semafor.com/article/09/1...

There’s the pop in refi applications: