There’s no way that whoever designed the Apple TV remote has young kids.

Pope Bob is on a roll:

Tough name:

Interested in the extent to which progressive political messaging will change in the shift from ZIRP/lowflation to affordability as the economic environment.

kinda starting to worry that an American Papacy has had unexpected ramifications for sports outcomes I care about

I don’t know what’s more frustrating about getting a flight canceled, the cancellation, or knowing if you actually need to speak to an agent you’ll be standing in line for an hour.

They should change the luxury tax so the bottom-5 spending teams get nothing (acts as a dynamic payroll floor). Make sure the Pirates get nothing, because they deserve nothing. www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/...

*KB HOME SHARES CLOSE DOWN 8.5%, MOST SINCE MAY 2021

Stefanik just said she’s not running for either governor or Congress in 2026.

You can make the case that the outlook for residential construction in 2026 is the worst it's been since the GFC, and the outlook for investment banking (IPO's/dealmaking) in 2026 is the best since the GFC. Not sure if those can both happen, but that's the tension.

Williams pouring cold water on a January rate cut: *WILLIAMS: DON'T HAVE A SENSE OF URGENCY TO ACT FURTHER NOW *WILLIAMS: MODESTLY OR MILDLY RESTRICTIVE FED POLICY IS HELPFUL *WILLIAMS: PERSONAL VIEW IS NEUTRAL REAL RATE IS A BIT BELOW 1%

2026 outlooks: Tech people: Who cares what’s happening in the real economy, we’re building machine god Global people: Reacceleration US housing/labor: Surely policymakers will do something to fix this

Uh holy shit

Big banks are counting on 2026 being a huge M&A/IPO year. A lot riding on that for them.

Big candle-warming lamp chatter on the timeline today.

Lennar and DR Horton are both entry-level homebuilders. Investors only think one of them is run by morons:

@ivanthek.bsky.social Have you made the "Year's over" call yet?

Had this take ready to go before today's CPI, might as well get it out there. Democrats should be ready for politics to be about jobs and not prices again. wertwhile.substack.com/p/dont-over-...

There's an obvious possible take that Q4 2025 is peak affordability concerns.

Lennar earned $19.50/share in 2022. The Wells Fargo housing analyst just cut their 2026 EPS forecast for the company to $6/share.

“Dad, is school the only important thing in life?” “Why do you say that?” “Because if you don’t do well in school you can’t get a job, if you can’t get a job you won’t have money, if you don’t have money you can’t get the things you need, and then you’ll die.” “…”

hell yeah

I’m getting a haircut tomorrow, literally could not have timed this better. Can’t wait for the channel check from my Venezuelan barber who voted for Trump.

Here's where Lennar expressed confidence that government action on affordability will make up for their weak profit margins and excess production:

$LEN call underway -- this management team is delusional.

The question is who's going to fund the capex if MSFT/META/AMZN/GOOGL won't.

$AVGO -20% in a week. For a $2 trillion company.

If investors are getting skittish about some of the big AI names but they're not willing to be net sellers of risk assets then names like $TSLA and $AAPL and bitcoin and banks and silver and small caps have to rally, that's just how the mechanics work.

$TOL is crushing $LEN over the past 3 years -- the future of single-fam construction is luxury, not entry-level:

State government employment growth has collapsed — not really a surprise given the end of pandemic money but it’s now in the data:

Tesla (projected 2027 EBITDA: $20 billion) now has the same market cap as Meta (projected 2027 EBITDA: $148 billion) (I know I’m awkwardly comparing market caps and EBITDA, but still)

Seems like there are incredible liquidity needs in markets in 2026: -all of the equity and debt-financed AI capex -IPO proceeds if SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, DataBricks all try to go -big year for capital gains tax payments Just something to watch/think about.

One of the Oracle (ORCL) Stargate data centers in Michigan doesn't have financing after Blue Owl (OWL) pulled out. Increasing signals that capital is starting to turn away from the sector having gorged for the past year.

It’s interesting how there are so few clean AI stories there are now. Msft = weak take up of own services/ copilot Amazon = unable to transition beyond IaaS Broadcom = tv risk if Google takes away TPUs Oracle = OpenAI reliance Memory = dram has stalled NVDA = gross margin risk from comp

One has to admit that whatever is going on here, there is something truly astonishing about it

Something I’ve come to understand is workers’ job market confidence isn’t necessarily about whether they have a good job, but their sense of their risk of being laid off and whether they could find a new job which is reflected more in hiring and quits rate.

Why don’t WSJ link previews work in iMessage anymore?

Millennials reactivating that ole GFC “I guess I’ll go to grad school” playbook

I like being a columnist because I don’t have to play make-believe like this.

“[Waymo] has achieved an annual revenue run rate above $350 million, two of the people said.”

On Election Day 2018 the unemployment rate was at 3.8%, near a 50-year low and falling. On Election Day 2026 the unemployment rate might be at 5% and at a 5-year high — very different dynamics for Dems.

This would not be Atlanta Fed President Sen’s position: *BOSTIC: AGGRESSIVE FED POLICY NOT A REMEDY FOR JOBS DECLINE

Lennar earnings after the bell, will be a good chance to get an update on entry-level new home sales (though the earnings call isn't until tomorrow morning).

Markets are acting like Tesla is going to be the robotaxi winner.

Feels like every time the unemployment rate makes a new high this is going to be the coverage:

Mamdani already getting results: *FIFA CUTS PRICE FOR SOME WORLD CUP TICKETS TO $60: AP

This imo is the best labor market chart for the bulls (presumably data centers):

Pretty amusing how the "damage control" if you can call it that basically confirms that Susie said everything they said she did.

Just realized that for the rest of my life when I download a household survey data series into FRED I'm going to have to think about the blank from October 2025. A pebble in my shoe that I'm stuck with.