GS has a long-term equity return forecast of that is at the higher end of historical ranges for all almost all markets despite trailing total returns being well above average and all markets trading at a premium to their historical ranges

India vs Europe $ EPS growth over the last decade

He’s good at math in pre-K* which means he knows 3 comes after 2

Fascinating to see Adyen go from a company that eschewed guidance and analyst engagement to a company that talks to the street constantly and provides multi-year top-line and margin guides

Lotta choice quotes in this piece, hoping nobody gets bonesawed for going being an anonymous contributor

The multiple has been flat, the earnings have been terrible -- Staples EPS growth has been less than half of inflation $XLP $SPY

Biggest losers from China's rise in manufacturing exports? Germany and Italy (the Northern part that is basically Switzerland+germany) Could we have known? Yes, it was obvious for years

Baseline working age population growth in the U.S. is ~0.3% Zero migration would make that negative Taiwan and Korea... woof

GS 2035 FX Forecasts Spicy for JPY and CNH

I think this true: we exist today in a state of significant material contentment. The opportunity cost of time is incredibly high because life is so much more enjoyable than the past and random death is much less likely It explains the move towards rampant careerism -- when we lose, we lose big

I think this is obviously true -- creation has moved to digital formats that are not yet considered art by the traditional commentariat

We used to have colourful cars

The movie business changed dramatically starting in the late 1990s

Vaping on the decline amongst young people feels like a narrative violation

JPM on China's tax system and how it encourages overcapacity

This actually quite succinctly captures the fundamental tension at the heart of American society today

'A House of Dynamite' is 1/3rd of a good film -- you can just stop watching after Rebecca Ferguson leaves the screen Also, content like this is wildly anachronistic in today's world. Just impossible to take seriously 'competence porn' involving the USG

Nice piece from Verdad on this paper that once again confirms: private markets are a socially acceptable grift papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Disney+ in freefall

You are also likely to be incompetent

A lot of people are recommending this article and tbh I don't know if it's because the salaciousness of the described content/lifestyle is semi-scandalous or there is a perception of some sort of valuable signal about society in the text? harpers.org/archive/2025...

I am usually a reliable audience for analysis about esoteric macroeconomic imbalances, but I have to confess I find everything about Argentina completely uninteresting -- the constant failings make for exciting reporting, but it's useless for knowledge-building since its always an exception

The last 10 years for the median stock has been... less than ideal

$ORCL's average Fwd. P/E for ~10 years prior to the AI takeoff was ~14x But now that growth is driven by a lower margin, more capital intensive, lower FCF conversion business with much lower switching costs.. it is too cheap at 15x 5 years out P/E

Apparently, a company that re-leases chips -- they don't even own the chips or the facilities -- and does <$150mm of 'gross profit' thinks $5bn is too low of a valuation

Men are the core customer for ride-sharing / women for food delivery

Huh: TikTok took down my 8-second video featuring this image of Debbie Brockman — the news producer just detained by Trump’s CBP agents — saying it violates the “joy of TikTok”

Indian IT oursourcers views on AI adoption in their customer base

Forward FCF Yields on Nasdaq, SPX, EAFE and EM

TikTok Shop in SEA

AI agents as the solution to the replication crisis in social science research is a pretty good use case

One of the slimiest, most disingenuous interviewees I’ve ever heard pca.st/episode/996c...

Chinese new home sales down 77% from peak

So this blogpost keeps getting circulated as some sort of totem on 'how early it is on AI' I don't have a strong view on which innings we are in, but I don't quite get it. What new argument has he made? What new information has come through? www.julian.ac/blog/2025/09...

'Fornite is the metaverse' 'Fornite is a place, not a game' Fortnite looks more amd more like a has-been

Numbers don't mean anything anymore

Following up 'Andor' with this slop is just diabolical Better to shelve it and keep the goodwill generated for something proper

Trailing 10 year total return for Tech has been ~25% CAGR (don't know a single large-cap fund that has done anything close) The relative return vs the SPX is ~1000bps higher annualised, similar to the 10 year rel performance from March 1990 to 2000

The commissar looking you in the eye accusing you of misdeeds he's committing himself (but for the Good of the Nation) is textbook how it works, there is no wallet inspection joke there. This is what the system is for.

What I am most excited about with 'One Battle After Another' is that one of the Great Directors working today decided to set a film in the (mostly) contemporary world It's a shame -- it almost feels like they're afraid to engage with contemporary culture and society via art

Sentiment check -- AI Datacenter Capex can only go up, it cannot go down, nominal GDP growth be damned

This film is absolute genius and despite the critical reappraisal it remains culturally underrated

Emmy's are basically Winner = if("The Studio"=nominated, "The Studio", if("The Pitt"=nominated, "The Pitt", "Severance"))

Being 'too-online' is now a life disadvantage

People are fond of saying that “technology is neutral” Doesn’t feel like algorithm driven social media is a neutral technology

Weirdly enough this a much more solvable/tractable problem than the U.S. deficit and likely has a positive impact on corporate earnings when/if it is addressed France greater financial market risk due to Euro membership, UK will just slowly but surely devalue currency

It's always work asking what incentives are being created right now and how that will affect downstream behavior by future generations

Southeast Asian lifestyle and travel influencer talking about an American political influencer's fate as a seminal moment in the history of the world We are so cooked