Joel Wertheimer
@wertwhile.bsky.social
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📥 542
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Civil rights attorney. COYS.
The below captures a lot of my view on vibecession talk, once adjusted for the Michigan data being borked, a long term time trend explains the secular decline in vibes, it's not a recent phenomenon.
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4 days ago
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Phil Weiser is pretty mod. Moulton is significantly to the right of Markey and has a solid shot of winning. There definitely is a real throw the bums out energy to go along with the left energy.
4 days ago
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Fun with the NYT polls this morning: run a monte carlo using the margin of error in the polls to estimate the number of seats Democrats win and then do it with correlated error as well. 3 seats is the expectation each time even though Democrats are only ahead in 2 and tied in 1.
4 days ago
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I don't disagree with Joey that there's a lot to do on gambling - have a lot coming on this soon! - but worth noting that gambling losses as a percentage of PCE is flat since 2019 because PCE is also up 60% since then.
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4 days ago
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On court reform, I think Democrats need to pack the court at the same time as they introduce an amendment to enshrine balance on the court of some sort and permit legislative override of court opinions without executive signature.
5 days ago
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One thing I want to note is that I don't think this piece says there are no vibes issues, it's just that in particular analysis needs to account for the fact that the data being used is bad.
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5 days ago
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Germany leaving the World Cup like
6 days ago
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This is one of the great shootouts
6 days ago
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reposted by
Joel Wertheimer
Mill Street Research
6 days ago
Interesting analysis of consumer sentiment readings and the "vibecession" debate by Joel Wertheimer
@wertwhile.bsky.social
Partisanship in responses to economic surveys has grown sharply and is heavily influencing the overall results, along with changes in polling (phone vs internet)
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One thing on the mode effects,
@ernietedeschi.bsky.social
got their first. But the interaction with the partisanship really jumped out post-Trump 47.
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6 days ago
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reposted by
Joel Wertheimer
Kevin Collins
6 days ago
Super interesting guest post by
@wertwhile.bsky.social
over at Silver Bulletin about mode effects in the Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment
www.natesilver.net/p/is-the-vib...
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Is the vibecession real — or is the survey broken?
A shift to online polling and undersampling of Republicans are skewing America’s most-cited measure of consumer sentiment.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/is-the-vibecession-real-or-is-the
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I have a new post up at Nate Silver's site about UMich's sentiment survey. Please read it I think it's quite good. The upshot is that the survey is broken because it doesn't weight by party. If you're talking vibecession, get a different survey.
www.natesilver.net/p/is-the-vib...
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Is the vibecession real — or is the survey broken?
A shift to online polling and undersampling of Republicans are skewing America’s most-cited measure of consumer sentiment.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/is-the-vibecession-real-or-is-the
6 days ago
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A thing I find quite funny is that Graham Platner is underperforming senate control preference among Maine voters most among voters without degrees and least or even improving among millennials and educated Mainers. The exact opposite of the story they're pitching.
6 days ago
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In good news, the Fourth Amendment applies to cell phone location data.
www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25p...
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https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/25-112_0am4.pdf
6 days ago
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I do think a constitutional amendment in this regard could be successful, perhaps also one that gets rid of the presidential pardon at the same time or severely restricts it. Done when a Democrat is in power you could see it happening.
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6 days ago
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The distance between Nate Cohn and basically every other major media pollster is remarkable.
www.nytimes.com/2026/06/29/u...
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The Big Changes Coming to the Times/Siena Poll
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/29/upshot/times-siena-polling-changes.html
6 days ago
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Need a European political party of Fission, Refrigerant, and Freedom
8 days ago
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Sure have some questions about whether the immigration enforcement surge was causing lower activity among lower income undocumented people. Certainly some signs in the data.
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11 days ago
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Relatedly I liked this post from Searchlight echoing Brad Lander’s statements. The tent stretches in both directions.
open.substack.com/pub/searchli...
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11 days ago
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Johan Manzambi definitely sounds like what boomer New Yorkers call the mayor
11 days ago
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Mark Zuckerberg's companies built the best ad platform on the planet and he fucking hates that that is all his companies are.
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12 days ago
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Great addition to the
@michaelcaley.bsky.social
World Cup pages: who is playing where in the knockouts?
open.substack.com/pub/expectin...
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Detailed Knockout Paths and Projections by Venue
Who's going to play whom and where?
https://open.substack.com/pub/expectinggoals/p/detailed-knockout-paths-and-projections?r=15h11f&utm_medium=ios
14 days ago
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reposted by
Joel Wertheimer
Snowden St.
14 days ago
Ecuador’s coach
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Room always plays out of his mind against us. Ecuadorian
@skipjack.bsky.social
probably
14 days ago
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Is this the first desperation ending of this World Cup?
14 days ago
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At the first Democratic presidential debate I want the mod to ask each candidate the following question: tell us about your most active group chat. I feel like it would reveal a lot in many ways.
14 days ago
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On the one hand I think people are right to note that these are all bad for adults as much as children (as I said in my column
www.theargumentmag.com/p/treat-big-...
) but I think it's 1) quite common that we start fighting public health on kids grounds and then move broader and that's fine.
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20 days ago
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Fun article from 8 years ago about the best college basketball players six feet and under. I don't think I see a single name that ever played in the NBA.
bleacherreport.com/articles/129...
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20 days ago
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I’d love to see some sort of data backup from like serving spectrum but the spurs really just seemed to be playing too hard early in the finals games. Picking up Brunson for 94 feet really did make it hard for the Knicks early but they obviously faded.
21 days ago
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Is it just what I’m clicking or lingering on or are other people’s algorithmic social media feeling more positive these days?
22 days ago
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Find the “Anthropic was asking for regulation and they got it” takes mind numbing. They want industry wide regulation not to be singled out. Come on. The whole point is a model power arms race is problematic.
22 days ago
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reposted by
Joel Wertheimer
22 days ago
DECISION: That's Just, Like, Your Opinion, Man
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VAR Mistaken Identity
22 days ago
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Do I...get to sing Mauricio Pochettino's name again?
22 days ago
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Big week for OGs
22 days ago
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Correct. The biggest racket in law school is that they don't tell you plaintiff's side work is good and cool.
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23 days ago
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The way this made me genuinely emotional
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25 days ago
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Tavern nailed this one seemingly. Platner at 68 with 9% undecided means about 74% of the decided vote and Platner at 74%. Of course, they also had him only up 2 on Collins and doing worse than Mills in the general...
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25 days ago
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This poll was actually revised to tied because somebody (it was me) told Siena that their education weighting had gotten flipped. 46-46.
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26 days ago
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New Siena poll of Texas has Talarico up 3 on Paxton in an R+6 generic ballot poll
reconmr.com/wp-content/u...
26 days ago
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Mike brown has been great but he’s sitting Brunson for too long
26 days ago
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Continuing to show Derek Jeter is really trying to kill my good Knicks vibes
26 days ago
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reposted by
Joel Wertheimer
TrumpsTaxes
26 days ago
LOL if you thought the Trump boos were loud on TV, wait until you hear them from inside MSG. Video courtesy of Evan Roberts from WFAN on X.
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First poll in ages showing mills doing better than Platner against Collins.
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27 days ago
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reposted by
Joel Wertheimer
Tavern Research
27 days ago
Mills and Platner are almost identical in head to head matchups v. Collins, but both trail a generic Democrat. Janet Mills 52% Susan Collins 48% Vs. Graham Platner 51% Susan Collins 49% Vs. Generic Dem 55% Susan Collins 45%
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Tavern out with a poll of the Maine primary and general.
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27 days ago
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Here are the people who recruited Graham Platner smiling as they admitted they completely failed at their vetting despite spending a lot of money.
www.wsj.com/politics/the...
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These People Handpicked Graham Platner. He’s Now Democrats’ Biggest Risk.
Watch WSJ’s Aaron Zitner as he travels to Maine to meet the independent activists behind Platner’s rise.
https://www.wsj.com/politics/these-people-handpicked-graham-platner-hes-now-democrats-biggest-risk-9693fb07
27 days ago
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Do people think the other companies are all irrationally spending on AI and are being duped by the Mag 7 companies?
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27 days ago
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Platner is going to be the nominee and is obviously preferable to Collins but also he can still withdraw and be replaced until July 13 and I think we shouldn’t accept that won’t happen as fait accompli particularly where, as is entirely plausible, more bad stuff comes out.
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28 days ago
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KAT really seemed to remember how much he loves basketball and went from really good to great and credits his late mom for it. It’s sports movie bullshit in real life.
29 days ago
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