Literally the only thing I care about in Maine senate is a head to head poll from Nate Cohn with both candidates against Susan Collins in part because this stuff is so unknowable.

Honestly the thing that stands out here to me is that from 2005 until 2022 or so we had zero legal services employment growth.

I honestly had no idea Aaron Rupar had physically morphed into Left Russillo.

so anyway, here's a senior writer for Wired claiming that a decidedly anti ICE statement from Schumer is somehow proof that he's pro ICE. someone please tell me how to get a job being a writer while always claiming that up is down and black is white because that gig sounds fun.

There's a lot of concern over these numbers and complaints about the Democratic consultant class yada yada but the focus on committee giving ignores candidate numbers where Democrats have a pretty big advantage, and the money is worth more because of the lowest unit cost rule.

This is from a group called JewBelong, which is supposed to get people to re-engage with their Judaism but instead does donor service and is deeply alienating to people who see themselves as culturally Jewish but don't belong to a synagogue.

The thing about health jobs is that they're incredibly non-cyclical. As in, you don't see the great financial crisis at all. They just keep growing year after year.

Thought this piece was quite good

I'm not sure what's strategically optimal but the party currently locked in a doom loop with a cult of personality centered on the worst human being in the universe is probably not acting out of an understanding of electoral/legislative optimization

The preeminent philosopher of consciousness of the past 50 years was obsessed with artificial intelligence and he viewed human consciousness as an emergent property of evolution. That thinking and speech "can be simulated" should make you think about what the nature of thinking and speech are!

I was doubtful of the philosophical implication of first-generation LLMs, but I think if you are not at least grappling with the fact that "reasoning models" which do not actually reason are nonetheless capable of reasoning-like behavior just by talking to themselves you aren't a serious commentator

Wrote this three(!) years ago and I feel like it's held up pretty well. The social emotional aspects of our jobs will get much more important and there will be more time to do them. wertwhile.substack.com/p/some-rando...

Ahem: As I said in my column wertwhile.substack.com/p/dont-over-...

Annoying (complimentary) to have read @add-hawk.bsky.social’s new book The Score right before the Olympics because now I’m watching all of these sports like snowboard big air and thinking about how we’ve lost what was beautiful about snowboarding by needing objective scores.

i forget who made it but it cracks me up lol

It is true! Cumulative through January NYC hadn't had this many heating degree days starting in November since 2013/2014 and depending on how the rest of this month goes might be the coldest winter we've had in 20 years.

All I’ll say is we didn’t have a winter like this for all of Bill de Blasio's eight years since he put the fear of FUCKING GOD into the groundhogs.

Early returns on Opus 4.6 are that it’s very impressive and the writing style worse and more cloying weakening one of the things I preferred about Claude.

Super cool index here!

And trivia games can really catch fire: think of the HQ Trivia and GeoGuessr. So there may be a real opportunity to run quiz games with some cultural and some political questions in advance of the 2026 and 2028 elections (esp the latter, since it's national).

Research Obsession Day 1: What do we know about the impact of creators? And what does it have to do with Elon Musk? Featuring this incredible research by @eunjikim.bsky.social, Nate Lubin & others: arxiv.org/pdf/2512.15401

For all the complaints about Dems being weak and not fighting, on the thing republicans actually tried to do to defeat democracy that Dems used to fold on, they’ve punched back so hard redistricting will be a win.

Fact check on this thread: completely true.

I wrote about the crypto crash and why this is the worst crypto winter in the industry's history. Sub to the Odd Lots newsletter here www.bloomberg.com/account/news...

So when does Saylor have real problems @peark.es?

Yesterday I made the analogy of Google's strategic decisions on CapEx to the Gattaca scene where Ethan Hawke's character reveals he won their games of swimming chicken because he did not save any energy for the way back.

People are going to be really mad that the ask here isn’t abolishing any deportation ever (which would be my choice if it was just up to me) but this is a very calculated list of reasonable asks that Republicans will lose their minds over, reinforcing revulsion in the American lizard brain.

A world where Sam Altman is worth $1T and there are 25 million unemployed college graduates in America is not a world where Sam Altman is worth $1T.

Relatedly the Republican Party still has a trust advantage on the issue of immigration over the Democratic Party. Voters don't like the visible cruelty and the secret police but it's not translated into a Dem advantage on the issue.

People who were in the baseball stats fights of the early 2000s might remember an argument about whether you could predict which players would get injured. One person said there was no YoY correlation, it was all noise and another said of course you can tell who was injury prone. So they made a bet.

This whole fight comes down to "is 1-2 points a large effect or a small effect" , where the campaign side folks say "that's a large effect" and the academics say "that's a small effect"

So far Zohran is very popular during his honeymoon phase per Siena poll. 68-20 in NYC, and 48-32 statewide including about 20% of Republicans. sri.siena.edu/wp-content/u...

This was the single lowest month of homicides in New York City on record...ever.

Talarico campaign boy I don't know.

On the one hand I think Mayor Mamdani will be quite opposed to Waymo coming to NYC. On the other, feel like we might get a statewide override as it'll be embarrassing for NYC to not have Waymo while other major cities do.

this particular line is maybe the best statement of purpose i have seen for those of us who want a more militant opposition to this administration

Tooze going Treatler wasn’t expected tbh.

Fun legal Q. Dems win in 2029. They uncover massive corruption by Trump (duh) and seize all of his assets as emoluments. Trump sues and says it was illegal to seize the assets because all of the actions are presidentially immune. Can immunity be used to recover ill gotten funds from US government?

You'd never know it from how the team is discussed, and it's mostly because the way the bounces have gone, but in the first 12 matches this season Spurs were abject and they've been better in the next 12.

Texas SD-9 swing with shading by Hispanic share of the precinct. Just massive outperformance.

So the Trump admin might pardon everybody but they can’t do civil pardons and we should just seize all of their assets as emoluments for corruptly gained and then make them prove they are not ill-gotten. Constant news coverage of their corruption. www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

The Nazi is a Nazi, noted

Neil Dutta and Skanda being so anti-Warsh (my perspective as well) while people like Jason Furman and El-Erian praised him say a lot about how different types of people judge qualifications and character when it comes to Fed governors.

I’m always ride or die with @skandaamarnath.bsky.social, but I thought his Odd Lots episode on Warsh yesterday was particularly good.

10 year yields went up when Warsh became the favorite which makes sense if he's both more likely to give us unnecessarily low rates in the short term (spiking inflation) and more likely to seek high rates when a Democrat is President.

Kevin Warsh is not a hawk. One letter off.

Voters actually do put politicians on a left right scale quite well! Trump interestingly has seen his ideology scored much more right recently.

no fan of jeffries, but holy shit is this article misleading. in the press briefing he calls for "a prohibition that DHS cannot *detain* or deport American citizens", and his focus throughout the briefing is on the detainment part

It’s a phenomenal time for everyone to revisit this piece from Sam Bell on Kevin Warsh from the last time this was about to happen medium.com/@sam_a_bell/...

The characteristics that make a good Fed Chair — honesty, integrity, objectivity, humility, being a sharp reader of the data, collaboration, transparency, thoughtful communication — are all things Trump doesn’t like.