The negativity bias of the media is the reason that Americans think the economy is awful and have a low approval of Trump on the economy even though inflation and unemployment are historically low and the stock market is booming, right?

This is exactly how I feel. And frankly when Trump started talking about the filibuster the Schatz types could have started working on it. Another option was the Lankford getting rid of shutdowns idea I think.

Yes if you want to doom this is the reason to me more than the cave. We should have been begging them to kill the filibuster and had a bunch of Dems willing to say if they want to kill your healthcare with 50 votes it’s their prerogative.

I do not assume this and don’t think that’s how this works

Two things I'll say (while reiterating what I said all the way up top that I don't like Schumer and don't think he should be majority leader): 1) we do not have the same Senate that LBJ operated in and should quit thinking that way 2) given this gang was going to defect, Schumer had no way to win.

This is horrible. This is also what prisons in New York State are like.

Yes it’s totally implausible that facing a primary influenced whether a guy would keep running and we should 100% take his word on it that he just wanted to spend more time with his family.

He’s been helped by just how awful republicans are, but turning a shutdown which really is typically unpopular to the senate party withhold votes for cloture, into a fight on our best issues has been very impressive work from Schumer.

Going to choose violence on Bluesky today I guess but Kathy Hochul continues her winning streak by approving the natural gas pipeline in New York, it's good on the merits *for bringing down emissions* and it's good for affordability and politics. gothamist.com/news/gov-hoc...

1) Yes Young and/or non-white voters were and are the swingiest voters right now and largely based on the economy no disagreement there. 2) I really don't think the relevant comparison is 2024 in terms of persistence but say 2017 or 2021 both because of margin and electorate type. (1/x)

Via Will Jordan on Twitter, Navigator polling showing Trump negatives being driven by East Wing

Fun question, in 5 years which country will have higher emissions per capita?

(in case you want to play around with any NYC elections data: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...)

I think Democrats should vote for a bill that did this.

Nobody wants to cut spending, nobody wants to raise taxes beyond the wealthiest, and nobody wants high interest rates. So uhhh we're left with the other thing.

This is a really excellent piece from Jeff who is essential reading on crime.

guys I’m sorry but have you looked through Getty images for yesterday 💀

Congratulations to Paul LePage!

Mostly just think it was this. People loved the 2019 economy and even in 2020 Trump had a huge advantage over Biden on the economy in exit polling. Hard to convince people he wasn't going to do what he's doing economically. wertwhile.substack.com/p/trump-45-w...

Have we not learned that day after the election posts like this are usually wrong. Exit polls are bad, rapidly calculating vote by demographic is hard to impossible, please chill out

One thing I cannot get over in particular is that there's no sense of proportion. NYC literally had a program where the NYPD was spying on Muslims!

Gonna need to start handing out some turkeys in a few weeks

Base strategies are good at turning out your base. Just one small problem.

Mamdani's model only works in a few places now, the most effective way for him to spread his ideas is to be a good mayor.

great @robinsonmeyer.bsky.social piece on zohran: how the "proud ecosocialist" who said we needed to fight trump with renewables clammed up about climate change on the campaign trail heatmap.news/politics/zoh...

Anyone got a Mikie Sherrill apology form on hand?

It’s so funny that every New York politician now goes to Puerto Rico for a retreat tomorrow.

Looking at all available precincts in Hudson County, Sherrill support is higher in the most-densely Hispanic turf & tracks closely with '21. Turnout is *higher* than '21 across the county-- and even more so in the most Hispanic precincts.

Story of the night is VA leg dominance no?

Live shot of Andrew, Melissa, and Rich fleeing to the Hamptons.

Bye Melissa

Jones 93% on Kalshi

Jay Jones bros we’re back

Guys who can run in behind opening up space elsewhere. Movement, it helps!

Curtis Sliwa has a lot of bad views of the world and I dislike his politics a lot in many ways, but he's a man who loves New York City and is offended by white flight and I think that's great.

This is truly ghastly. Judges in Tennessee refused to overturn a conviction in a case of "shaken baby syndrome" that the DA's office asked them to overturn. Ghouls.

I think this passage is the crux of my disagreement with Drutman and @gelliottmorris.com on moderation: this reasoning is circular. The party labels and levels of polarization are not exogenous to choices made by both parties. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/democrats-...

A lot of New York’s regulations on deliveristas for the delivery apps seem like they are leading to one place which is functionally stricter delivery zone regulations which I think would have some value. Yes it would reduce consumer choice but I think it would help solve a number of issues.

Okay this is another Platner staffer resigning and it can't be that multiple staffers are resigning based on what we have learned so far. Clearly something else here!

Really good from New Kings Democrats. Really nice to see broad consensus on housing proposals from uhh most parts of Dem politics.

The level on these polls is always wrong but the direction basically matches crime levels. It's why I really dislike the claims that the underlying facts don't matter to people's crime perceptions. They very much do!

Really appreciate @gelliottmorris.com doing this issue trust polling. Dems are +8 in generic ballot in this poll.

These are straightforwardly just descriptions of *what already happens today.* We don’t have to speculate: a wave of cities have moved to even-year elections, and what has happened is that more people vote, and when they do, they spend time looking into what’s downballot. That’s a new audience.

Who does he think he is, Matt Stoller?

Emerson is not right aligned even if Nexstar is. They have 317 polls in Nate Silver’s database and a slight D lean.

Good luck with that lie.

It’s been so successful that I think Democrats could probably fold at this point and say they tried to save your healthcare subsidies. I’d rather they do it by killing the filibuster but Dem senators voting yes on cloture and no on the bill and making the point, probably a success.

What Bill Gates said is not climate denialism. Saying that there are tradeoffs to addressing climate, including to the well-being of many of the world's poorest people, is just accurate.

Yes