The below captures a lot of my view on vibecession talk, once adjusted for the Michigan data being borked, a long term time trend explains the secular decline in vibes, it's not a recent phenomenon.

Phil Weiser is pretty mod. Moulton is significantly to the right of Markey and has a solid shot of winning. There definitely is a real throw the bums out energy to go along with the left energy.

Fun with the NYT polls this morning: run a monte carlo using the margin of error in the polls to estimate the number of seats Democrats win and then do it with correlated error as well. 3 seats is the expectation each time even though Democrats are only ahead in 2 and tied in 1.

I don't disagree with Joey that there's a lot to do on gambling - have a lot coming on this soon! - but worth noting that gambling losses as a percentage of PCE is flat since 2019 because PCE is also up 60% since then.

On court reform, I think Democrats need to pack the court at the same time as they introduce an amendment to enshrine balance on the court of some sort and permit legislative override of court opinions without executive signature.

One thing I want to note is that I don't think this piece says there are no vibes issues, it's just that in particular analysis needs to account for the fact that the data being used is bad.

Germany leaving the World Cup like

This is one of the great shootouts

Interesting analysis of consumer sentiment readings and the "vibecession" debate by Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social Partisanship in responses to economic surveys has grown sharply and is heavily influencing the overall results, along with changes in polling (phone vs internet)

One thing on the mode effects, @ernietedeschi.bsky.social got their first. But the interaction with the partisanship really jumped out post-Trump 47.

Super interesting guest post by @wertwhile.bsky.social over at Silver Bulletin about mode effects in the Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment www.natesilver.net/p/is-the-vib...

I have a new post up at Nate Silver's site about UMich's sentiment survey. Please read it I think it's quite good. The upshot is that the survey is broken because it doesn't weight by party. If you're talking vibecession, get a different survey. www.natesilver.net/p/is-the-vib...

A thing I find quite funny is that Graham Platner is underperforming senate control preference among Maine voters most among voters without degrees and least or even improving among millennials and educated Mainers. The exact opposite of the story they're pitching.

In good news, the Fourth Amendment applies to cell phone location data. www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25p...

I do think a constitutional amendment in this regard could be successful, perhaps also one that gets rid of the presidential pardon at the same time or severely restricts it. Done when a Democrat is in power you could see it happening.

The distance between Nate Cohn and basically every other major media pollster is remarkable. www.nytimes.com/2026/06/29/u...

Need a European political party of Fission, Refrigerant, and Freedom

Sure have some questions about whether the immigration enforcement surge was causing lower activity among lower income undocumented people. Certainly some signs in the data.

Relatedly I liked this post from Searchlight echoing Brad Lander’s statements. The tent stretches in both directions. open.substack.com/pub/searchli...

Johan Manzambi definitely sounds like what boomer New Yorkers call the mayor

Mark Zuckerberg's companies built the best ad platform on the planet and he fucking hates that that is all his companies are.

Great addition to the @michaelcaley.bsky.social World Cup pages: who is playing where in the knockouts? open.substack.com/pub/expectin...

Ecuador’s coach

Room always plays out of his mind against us. Ecuadorian @skipjack.bsky.social probably

Is this the first desperation ending of this World Cup?

At the first Democratic presidential debate I want the mod to ask each candidate the following question: tell us about your most active group chat. I feel like it would reveal a lot in many ways.

On the one hand I think people are right to note that these are all bad for adults as much as children (as I said in my column www.theargumentmag.com/p/treat-big-...) but I think it's 1) quite common that we start fighting public health on kids grounds and then move broader and that's fine.

Fun article from 8 years ago about the best college basketball players six feet and under. I don't think I see a single name that ever played in the NBA. bleacherreport.com/articles/129...

I’d love to see some sort of data backup from like serving spectrum but the spurs really just seemed to be playing too hard early in the finals games. Picking up Brunson for 94 feet really did make it hard for the Knicks early but they obviously faded.

Is it just what I’m clicking or lingering on or are other people’s algorithmic social media feeling more positive these days?

Find the “Anthropic was asking for regulation and they got it” takes mind numbing. They want industry wide regulation not to be singled out. Come on. The whole point is a model power arms race is problematic.

DECISION: That's Just, Like, Your Opinion, Man

VAR Mistaken Identity

Do I...get to sing Mauricio Pochettino's name again?

Big week for OGs

Correct. The biggest racket in law school is that they don't tell you plaintiff's side work is good and cool.

The way this made me genuinely emotional

Tavern nailed this one seemingly. Platner at 68 with 9% undecided means about 74% of the decided vote and Platner at 74%. Of course, they also had him only up 2 on Collins and doing worse than Mills in the general...

This poll was actually revised to tied because somebody (it was me) told Siena that their education weighting had gotten flipped. 46-46.

New Siena poll of Texas has Talarico up 3 on Paxton in an R+6 generic ballot poll reconmr.com/wp-content/u...

Mike brown has been great but he’s sitting Brunson for too long

Continuing to show Derek Jeter is really trying to kill my good Knicks vibes

LOL if you thought the Trump boos were loud on TV, wait until you hear them from inside MSG. Video courtesy of Evan Roberts from WFAN on X.

First poll in ages showing mills doing better than Platner against Collins.

Mills and Platner are almost identical in head to head matchups v. Collins, but both trail a generic Democrat. Janet Mills 52% Susan Collins 48% Vs. Graham Platner 51% Susan Collins 49% Vs. Generic Dem 55% Susan Collins 45%

Tavern out with a poll of the Maine primary and general.

Here are the people who recruited Graham Platner smiling as they admitted they completely failed at their vetting despite spending a lot of money. www.wsj.com/politics/the...

Do people think the other companies are all irrationally spending on AI and are being duped by the Mag 7 companies?

Platner is going to be the nominee and is obviously preferable to Collins but also he can still withdraw and be replaced until July 13 and I think we shouldn’t accept that won’t happen as fait accompli particularly where, as is entirely plausible, more bad stuff comes out.

KAT really seemed to remember how much he loves basketball and went from really good to great and credits his late mom for it. It’s sports movie bullshit in real life.