Why do these two metrics look the same? Is it just “equities went up a lot?”

Also relating to this is foreign investor behaviour in South Korea and Taiwan. YTD foreign investors have taken OUT $48bn or so out of South Korea because the rate of appreciation is so fast it breaches asset allocation targets In Taiwan, YTD equity inflows are 0 Not what you’d see in a bubble

SpaceX is an absolutely shitco

IMHO the “earnings bubble” framework is not useful. The gist of this is that the capex beneficiaries are over earning, over time, both the earnings level and margins will mean revert such that the current multiple being paid is expensive. That’s the risk at all times with investing in cyclicals!

I mean these Warsh advisors basically confirm all our priors - just like every other appointee this term

I think one thing that’s hard to really understand is how different any AI call is now vs. Non-AI Best case for non-AI is “results were better than expected, upgrade our FY guidance by 3%” For AI it’s like “Demand is exploding, we can’t keep up and won’t for 2 years, upgrade guidance by 30%”

High token costs and token maxing are the two new bear cases

Cyclical employment growth has been slowly improving - and I mean slowly - but anything interest rate sensible is now a headwind.

I know this upset some people but I think keyword search is dead for 80% + of search cases

Why won’t this chat die?

ServiceNow rerating is one of the funniest things around because it came after their earnings report in response to other corporate earnings than helped their own vibes

“Phantom threat”

I think I’d have really struggled in this graduate market given my average qualifications. I was lucky i graduated amid a big four hiring boom which is now over.

Ruchir loves every market not making profits and hates the one that is lol

Claude’s writing style has gone downhill

Seems like Ben Thompson is saying Nvidia’s longer term moat among Hyperscalers is all but eroded? Nearer term moat is: - Supply lock up via forward planning - full AI system solution that’s plug and play - Cuda though this is also becoming less important

Okta +25%

With meta supposedly launching consulting services, and Anth + OAI doing the same, the market is basically saying new consulting ventures will do wl, but those who used to offer it will struggle

String of big software beats and raises I think we are back.

Anth raises $20bn more than expected it looks like? www.anthropic.com/news/series-h

Capgemini a business which has historically grown revenues by high single digit is trading at 8x ntm That’s like tobacco multiples

Thought semis might struggle today given SNOW earnings and oil but nope

CESIUSD is pretty elevated right now relative to other countries and vs where we’ve seen since 2024

It’s pretty sad how we’ve got here. Worried about youth jobs, but youth UE is down Worried about water, except DCs barely use any Worried about power, now we’ve gone off grid Worried about software, yet job ads in the sector have gone up Worried about bubble, and yet Anthropic made 40bn in ARR

It’s pretty sad how we’ve got here. Worried about youth jobs, but youth UE is down Worried about water, except DCs barely use any Worried about power, now we’ve gone off grid Worried about software, yet job ads in the sector have gone up Worried about bubble, and yet Anthropic made 40bn in ARR

WMT starting to look like MSFT late last year.

Anth saying they will hit $90bn ARR by Dec 2026

The biggest factor from past few months is how many markets we see spot up and vol up Gold, silver, Kospi, Oil (expected), semis

Bit late to this but wth? www.ft.com/content/636b...

Ok slopoganda is an awesome word

8 straight days of net outflows off KR exchange by foreign investors totalling $23bn In best example that fii flows doesn’t determine performance

I was at a family office AI conference last night, and the summary is that Claude Cowork is a game changer. Well ahead of ChatGPT. That fits Ramp’s adoption index too.

Two charts I’ve been thinking about:

So security software - which had highest valuations have come out stronger in recent weeks - showing the market isn’t being indiscriminat

Expectations were pretty high for Cisco coming in… and they blew past it

Pretty insane “ramp” by Anthropic

There’s software which sucks, but then there’s crowdstrike which doesn’t know it is software

Added a small portion back to stuff I trimmed after yday

Honestly the IAE’s may report fully explains why prices are so contained. It just hasn’t been as bad as feared so far for many reasons.

Def agree

Trimmed a bunch of stuff over past few days and now running a lot of cash

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Should be ex Google

I, like others am nervous about this acceleration in semis becoming bubbleicious, but I always thought it would come once Hyperscaler roi fears are put to rest Instead, what we are getting is more confidence big capex will continue, but those doubts eg Google remain.

Investing is really funny sometimes Most people talked about diversifying away from the “tech heavy” US index into EM Yet in EM, it’s the least diversified most tech heavy markets that have drastically outperformed (plus some Brazil)

China has historically been a value destructive region to invest in as earnings barely grow. Taiwan was cyclical while TSMC slowly became higher quality

Does anyone public have a good equal weight semi index? ESOX doesn’t provide holdings

If HBF takes off, then Sandisk becomes a very different company

Wow. XAI selling their compute to Anthropic because they can’t use it all on account of Grok having 0 organic demand