Anyone play Pokemon champions?

Was awesome meeting Luke yday who’s one of my fav people on here!!! Also one of the best trend spotters I’ve come across.

The model, the mythos, the legend

We downgrade our UK gdp estimate by 0.3% of gdp as the hit from the attack will be offset by government support and the rebuild effort during the remainder of the year

I’m really enjoying the oil discourse Because to some extent it really comes down to how you view markets conceptually

I think this is a dumb statement but: If the current pricing in g10 rates plays out; it’s possible we’ve moved to a different environment where hikes take the elevator up, but the stairs down on no recession

Sandisk is mental

This is the key story to watch imo gulfnews.com/amp/story/wo...

There was no predictive power in prediction markets lol

If this happens then I’m wrong

Some market reactions when operation praying mantis was called I think it’s quite instructive for this if I’m right about what is going on

this isn’t much of a futures drop. and at 8pm they can buy semis

Spring is beaut

I haven’t done any equity analysis or AI related stuff since Jan and I am feeling fomo

Given token explosion, either oil goes up a lot or memory, optics, and semicap goes up a lot.

Great article by @dsquareddigest.bsky.social today, inspiring this meme as a unified theory of payment geopolitics (with cameos of @danielmcdowell.bsky.social, Nicholas Mulder & @edwardfishman.bsky.social

Goldman: hedge funds loved their longs and kept gross leverage high during the Iran war by shorting the hell out of indexes

Right for the wrong reasons on gold but wrong for wrong reason so far on NZD rates lol

Let’s hope this sticks -and we never have anything like it again

So is the claim that mythos is so powerful, that anthropic needs to work with partners to help them understand its capability?

This is what the flywheel between More compute > better models > greater ROI looks like btw

Aaand seems like it has been rejected

Pretty bad article tbh Most universities and staff are indeed average. The product they are providing is insufficient, and consolidation is good. What’s bad is there’s not top down plan to protect one of the UKs main USPs - it’s top universities. www.ft.com/content/5032...

Wow!

Something I wrote in 2023 which is relevant for today when it comes to understanding futures prices in oil

So the market just rallied and then died

So joint intervention ex US is ruled out Macron called it unrealistic while the war goes on and without talks with Iran first

So what now?

Humble suggestions: If you’re tired of talking about fixing the business, a) fix the business b) don’t be the one in charge of fixing the business Hall of Fame CEO loser quote here imho www.bloomberg.com/news/article... #$NKE

@domw.bsky.social you have bbg?

Ghalibaf has spoken

Really hard not to say this is the UK’s only option

What’s the best guess on trump’s address tonight?

What the hell is happening to oil?

Big trade on Brent Jun26 95/85/75 put fly - 5000x

Here’s where I am: I think it’s clear US-Iran are talking, similar to China-US last year when China said they are not. Talks themselves are positive as I said before; but are not enough for deesclation given the differences. The question is can they agree something in time.

Crazy to think the oil market was in a 2mn b/d surplus per @roryjohnston.bsky.social latest balances in Jan And today we are here

absolutely hilarious and fitting that hegseth used inside info to buy defence stocks and lost money anyway Sums up how thick that guy is

Some oil charts I shared on the other place 1. Current time spreads at 40% is consistent with a YoY decline in oecd stocks 2. despite the massively rally, oil positioning isn’t extreme 3. The market is pricing in much lower oil stocks in the US despite seeing almost nothing yet

During the lib day stuff, the market generally liked Bessent talking but disliked lutnik and Navarro (glad we don’t see him anymore). This time it doesn’t even care about Bessent

When does Europe, ME, Asia just say fuck this, let’s clear this up ourselves? It was fine it say it’s trumps fuck up until now, but the impact hurts you more than them?

Why should I not go massively overweight ags?

Brent DFLs are now at news highs too as North Sea phys continues to pick up

Despite aud doing well over the past 3m, put skew has been more bid, unlike JPY where which has weakened while call skew (in USDJPY) has been bid. Is that a sign of market nervousness in AUD?

Just from my TL: So there’s no agreement on what’s just happened today and whether any progress has been made. What we know for sure is energy/ food market consequences rise with every day.

This is why we have markets

📊 NEW OIL DATA 📊 The Iran War and stoppage of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has cratered Middle Eastern supply and flipped the oil market into an all-time record deficit through end-March from Jan-Feb surpluses Check out the link to the full report in reply.

Today’s events - given Trump - we’re a necessary condition to reach a resolution but are not a resolution itself.

All of the skepticism about the crediblity of ceasefire-talk claims and all the concerns over the complication of recovering energy flow, etc., are valid and proper. But if you don't see there's at least signal value in the President wanting a path out, just stop opining on reflex market reactions.

Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan have been passing messages between the U.S. and Iran over the past two days in an effort to de-escalate, U.S. source says