Nothing would advance the Abundance movement more than inventing and popularizing a version of Monopoly where the more houses you build the more rents become affordable.

Price discrimination often framed as unfair high prices. Although the kicker to the story had another frame: "When Delta and, to a lesser extent, United retreated from this strategy, they simply raised prices for multiple-passenger bookings to match their single fares."

USA!

My thoughts on the Fed, macroeconomy, tariffs and more in conversation (and debate) with Larry Summers, Oren Cass and Rebecca Patterson. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/18/o...

A useful account from CBO about why revenue exceeded their post TCJA forecast (from Apr 2018). TL;DR: it was because both inflation & real GDP growth exceeded their forecast. And they attribute that real GDP surprise to immigration and pandemic stimulus not the TCJA.

Core CPI was 3.6% annual rate over last 3 months. That would put it at the 98th percentile of 1992-2019 experience. That's the problem we've had for the past few yrs. Inflation about average for good stretches. But during bad stretches it's almost off the carts. Avg is too high.

The core inflation rate increased for the fourth straight month. Annual rates: 1 month: 4.2% 3 months: 3.6% 6 months: 2.7% 12 months: 3.1%

The latest jobs numbers, assuming the 911K preliminary downward revision for the yr ending Mar 2025 were spread evenly across the previous 12 months. We'll get actual revised numbers in Feb & they could be a little better than this (and distributed differently by month).

My thoughts on the jobs numbers in the NYT. Short version: They largely reflect an abrupt slowdown in labor supply (due to immigration restrictions) combined with a continued very gradual weakening in labor demand. The Fed can help but can't get us more workers. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/05/o...

The PCE-based Ecumenical Underlying Inflation measure is out for July. It was 2.7%, up from earlier in the year. This is the median of 8 concepts each over 3, 6 and 12 months--all remeaned to match the PCE. FWIW, my own judgment is a touch lower than this.

The core PCE inflation rate increased for the fourth month in a row. Annual rates: 1 month: 3.3% 3 months: 3.0% 6 months: 3.0% 12 months: 2.9% But two reasons to be less worried than headline: (1) transitory tariffs & (2) some of this is imputed from rising stock market.

My thoughts in the NYT on where we stand now with the Fed. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/26/o...

@jasonfurman.bsky.social is appropriately blunt and brutal in his assessment of Trump’s firing of BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer and his atrocious nomination of EJ Antoni. Given the chaos Trump has unleashed on the economy, it’s important to have data to track it. This step undermines the data.

This, from the normally sedate and somewhat boring @jasonfurman.bsky.social, is brutal. @colbertlateshow.bsky.social level roasting.

I expand on why I--like just about every economist and wonk I know--believes that EJ Antoni is a terrible pick for BLS Commission. Shout outs to Alan Cole, Stan Veuger and if more space would have called out dozens more. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/13/o...

The WSJ Editorial page on President Trump's pick for BLS Commissioner: "Mr. Antoni’s commentary at Heritage has been highly partisan, but the BLS job demands nonpartisan professionalism."

The CPI-based Ecumenical Underlying Inflation measure rose again in July and now stands at 2.6%. This is the median of seven measures over 3, 6 and 12 months (so 21 overall, all re-meaned to match the PCE).

Inflation numbers a little better than expected. But inflation numbers also showing signs of re-inflation, both tariff and possibly otherwise. Core annual rate: 1 month: 3.9% 3 months: 2.8% 6 months: 2.4% 12 months: 3.1%

I don’t think I have ever publicly criticized any Presidential nominee before. But E.J. Antoni is completely unqualified to be BLS Commissioner. He is an extreme partisan and does not have any relevant expertise. He would be a break from decades of nonpartisan technocrats.

U.S. statistical funding has been falling—while it has stayed constant or increased in Australia, Canada and the UK. (From Goldman Sachs)

Belatedly getting to yesterday's productivity data. These numbers are not market moving because they mostly just divide numbers previously released (output and employment). But I like them to remind ourselves or where we stand. And where we stand is, so far, nothing special.

Coming up soon: a wide ranging discussion with Paul Ryan moderated by Melissa Kearney. Livestream option too: www.aspeninstitute.org/events/aspen...

"The issue is that levying tariffs is like a person simultaneously shooting himself and another person in the foot". on.ft.com/3HjfdLa via @jasonfurman.bsky.social

A sound and refreshing argument after all the "self-humiliation" talk in the EU recently.

Belatedly sharing my FT piece, "Trump’s tariffs leave us in the second worst of all worlds" My argument: criticizing countries for making deals reflects the same misguided mercantilist logic that led Trump to his tariffs. And the US is still one of the bigger losers. on.ft.com/3IXyHFP

My @nytopinion.nytimes.com blog on Trump's egregious and senseless order to fire the BLS Commissioner. www.nytimes.com/live/2025/08...

The pace of job growth in 2025 has been notably better (or less bad) than 2024 in finance, manufacturing and information. It has been notably worse (or less good) in education & health, leisure and hospitality and especially construction and government.

This is awful. Reliable economic data is a key strength of the US economy. When Argentina and Greece faked economic data it contributed to major crises. I don't think Trump will be able to fake the data given the procedures. But there is now a risk plus an awful appearance.

"The best thing for the Fed over the next few months is to be behind the curve, because the alternative is to risk being ahead of the wrong curve." --Me on May 6, 2025

Immigration the biggest factor in the jobs slowdown (but tariffs etc. matter too). One piece of evidence: unemp rate has been steadily marching up by ~0.025pp per month for the last 2-1/2 years while job growth has slowed. So actual - breakeven job growth roughly constant.

At least no one is using the word polycrisis any more.

The jobs slowdown is here with 73K jobs in July & large downward revisions to May & June bringing the average to 35K/month. Not quite as bad as you might think because steady-state job growth is much lower in a low net immigration world but unemployment still gradually rising.

I agree with a lot of this. And think a little (but hopefully only a little) applies to me as well.

My latest @nytopinion.nytimes.com attempts to answer, "The Tariffs Kicked In. The Sky Didn’t Fall. Were the Economists Wrong?" In brief: the economy actually has slowed & inflation has picked up, as you would expect. Plus Trump called off some tariffs and lags. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/31/o...

A big pop in core PCE inflation in June. Annual rates: 1 month: 3.1% 3 months: 2.6% 6 months: 3.2% 12 months: 2.8% No matter what horizon you're looking at this is too high. (Although there is a case that it is transitory due to tariffs.)

Q2 GDP came in at a 3.0% annual rate. There were massive timing shifts that shifted reported growth from Q1 to Q2. The much better way to look at the data is averaging the two which is a 1.2% annual rate. That is well below the pace in 2024 or the Nov 2024 forecast for 2025-H1.

My NYT opinion on the threat to the Fed. I argue it has powerful short-run protections (including interest rates set by a 12 person committee). But it's largely defenseless against a sustained assault by two Presidents in a row. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/17/o...

The CPI-based Ecumenical Underlying Inflation Measure was 2.3% in June, up from 2.0% last month. Is the median of 7 different measures of inflation over 3, 6 and 12 months--all benchmarked to match the PCE (on average, lately PCE running higher). Expect this to keep rising.

Inflation rose in June, with core CPI at an annual rate of: 1 month: 2.8% 3 months: 2.4% 6 months: 2.7% 12 months: 2.9% You can see signs of tariffs in these numbers and that is only likely to grow.

I organized an economist amicus brief in V.O.S. Selections Inc. v. Trump, the "Liberation Day" tariffs case in which the government's appeal will soon be considered by the Federal Circuit Appeal Court.

I join a group of economists in an Amicus Brief for the Appeals Court arguing that trade deficits do not meet the requirements of IIEPA, namely they are not an “unusual and extraordinary threat... to the national security, foreign policy or economy of the United States.”

President Trump's focus on a Fed Chair who will slash rates is misguided even on his own terms: 1 The Fed Chair is 1 of 12 votes, a political hack Chair won't get majority 2 Even if FFR slashed the rates people care about, like mortgage, could go up w/ higher expected inflation

A Road Map for Undoing the Damage of the Big, Awful Bill: Read @jasonfurman.bsky.social on what Dems can learn from how Republicans succeeded in jamming their unpopular bill through. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/05/o...

The Nazis built ~10k Panzer IV, Tiger, and Tiger II tanks during WWII, in many ways technically superior to the US-made Sherman tank. But the US built ~50k Shermans and the Nazi engineering wasn’t 5X better.

Seems likely to 1) increase stock prices, benefiting foreigners who own U.S. stocks & wealthy Americans 2) decrease bond prices, increase U.S. borrowing costs, & raise U.S. deficits & debt Seems unlikely to change aggregate investment (Modigliani-Miller), & favor companies being public not private

A gripping beginning to "After the Spike" by Dean Spears & @mikegeruso.bsky.social‬: 146 million children were born in 2012, more than in any year before, since, or likely ever in the future. Highly recommended, my Goodreads review: www.goodreads.com/review/show/...

One of the ways the United States won World War II was, evidently, beating Nazi Germany to shorter depreciable lives for military investments. This and much more in a fascinating book, Freedom's Forge by Arthur Herman. www.goodreads.com/review/show/...

Senator's Cassidy and Kaine outline a plan to "rescue" Social Security. Both Senators are very thoughtful, bipartisanship on this issue is essential, but unfortunately I'm mostly skeptical on this proposal. This 🧵 outlines some of the major considerations:

My latest NYT Opinion piece discusses the enormity of the One Big Beautiful bill, some lessons about how it passed, the challenges it will pose for future legislation--and some preliminary ideas about how to being that process. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/05/o...

The extraordinary U.S. economy continues to be extraordinary. 147K jobs added in June with upward revisions to April and May. Unemployment rate ticks down to 4.1%. Some contrary signs: participation rate down and hours down + weak wage growth.