“You can have volcanoes in the economy that you haven’t seen yet,” @adamposen.bsky.social says, referencing Emily Dickinson. Stablecoins are one: a latent threat that could erupt & trigger a financial meltdown. The lava could cause destruction reminiscent of what happened in 2008.

This major US financial stability risk has not been getting sufficient attention. So, I am using this feature I did with the Danish "Borsen" - in English - to try to raise this concern. If you find the argument clear and therefore worrying, please circulate, thanks. www.piie.com/commentary/o...

Always worth re-reading @adamposen.bsky.social on our unhealthy obsession with China shocks & "good" manufacturing jobs in the 2020s:

New interview in Le Monde (en francais) The US can bully, but Europe has more agency than it thinks. Yet Europe cannot succeed trying to play the same game as China or US. It has to employ attraction to counter and compete with threats. www.lemonde.fr/economie/art...

See also @adamposen.bsky.social predictions for how the UK economy would be adversely affected by Brexit from 8 years ago Experts eh !!😱 youtu.be/EcIkIz98zXU?...

How is China meeting its gargantuan need for electricity? Listen to the conversation I had with China electricity expert David Fishman on Policy for the Planet: @piie.com @adamposen.bsky.social www.piie.com/experts/podc...

There were a lot of good reasons to think that the tariffs were going to take awhile to take affect...but it will happen, & frankly, it's happening right now, @adamposen.bsky.social tells @financialtimes.com. Listen to the whole Unhedged podcast here or wherever you get podcasts:

With the multilateral system not looking like what it used to, Beatrice Weder di Mauro asked Maurice Obstfeld, Adam Posen, and Shang-Jin Wei where they predict the world to be in 10 years time. Europe could play a crucial role as the US steps down, especially in collaboration on trade and climate.

As @adamposen.bsky.social pointed out some time ago, the old world order rested on USA serving as a kind of global insurance provider, guaranteeing the postwar system. But since MAGA took power, that insurance has gone. Economically, politically and militarily, the whole world is in a state of flux.

Here's Posen's must-read analysis of America's Trumpian transformation – and what it means for the rest of the world.

Echo of @adamposen.bsky.social pieces describing how the US has moved from providing global public goods insurance to attempting to extract resources, for public and private [Trump family and those who secure a connection] purposes.

#CallForPapers: 2nd Kiel-CEPR Monetary Policy Conference - submit papers on #monetarypolicy & central bank independence by Jan 18! Confirmed speakers: Ulrike Malmendier (Keynote, @svrwirtschaft.bsky.social), @adamposen.bsky.social & Philip Lane @ecb.europa.eu 👉 cepr.org/events/2nd-k... @cepr.org

The future of globalisation - a new podcast discussion on how geopolitics and trade profoundly changes Europe's role, how countries will adjust to this new normal – and whether the changes we have seen will ever be unwound with #Voxtalks_economics cepr.org/multimedia/f... via CEPR_EU

We just launched Season 3 with an accompanying blog, a new feature of the podcast! @adamposen.bsky.social @piie.com

Listen to PIIE Insider LIVE wherever you get podcasts!

Definitely worth a listen to @mdebolle.com on @npr.org On point discussing the Argentina bailout by the US government @wbur.org @piie.com www.wbur.org/onpoint/2025...

I was a guest on NPR’s On Point today discussing the U.S.-Argentina bailout. @piie.com @adamposen.bsky.social www.wbur.org/onpoint/2025...

@adamposen.bsky.social explains why some effects from Trump’s policies, like tariffs & deportations, are lagged & why he worries erosion of Fed independence plus the admin’s crypto policies could lead to financial instability. Watch:

This is a good summary of my assessment of the Trump economic policies after one year, and what is to come. There is a consistent thru line to the Trump program which was evident by Nov '24,but that does not make it a coherent policy nor reduces uncertainty. global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202511/14/...

New podcast: me reflecting on US economic policies since the election, what we foresaw, what surprised, what the impact has been and will be. Includes a warning about the seeds being sown for the next financial crisis by Trump's crypto and Fed policy combo. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/a...

NOVEMBER 7: It's been a year this week since the US presidential election...& one year of PIIE Insider LIVE! @adamposen.bsky.social is coming back onto the podcast to discuss what's changed in the US & global economy. Tune in live or subscribe wherever you get podcasts: www.piie.com/events/2025/...

Congress's role in the trade war: A bipartisan conversation with Senators Kaine and Paul Live Today 5:45pm ET @piie.com www.piie.com/events/2025/...

Yes, inflation from tariffs is happening. Will inflation expectations stay low? Mebbe not www.theguardian.com/business/202...

Live webcast today 10:45 ET Surveying the new economic geography with @AdamPosen and @joshualipsky Live at @IMFNews Watch here! www.youtube.com/live/kNiZYVd... via @YouTube

If you'd like a break from doomerism, @mdebolle.com & I had a good time recording this new @piie.com podcast to explore potential paths forward for clean energy industrial policy. We touched on IRA lessons learned, abundance, bottom-up policy design, & yes...bagels. ‎ www.piie.com/experts/podc...

Robust investment in the US in AI-related categories has more than compensated for softer investment elsewhere. Find these charts & so many more, & watch the presentation here: www.piie.com/events/2025/...

Rather than worrying about the China Shock 2.0 in developed economies, we should be much more worried about the China Shock 1.0 in low- & middle-income countries, Arvind Subramanian says. Find slides & watch the Global Economic Prospects event here: www.piie.com/events/2025/...

Global growth holds up despite policy headwinds and rising risks - New blog by Karen Dynan Latest global economic propsects from @piie.com www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

Must see TV: PIIE’s Adam S. Posen on why inflation impact from tariffs and deportations has been lagged www.piie.com/newsroom/sho...

US-China tariffs: where do they currently stand? - US average tariff on imports from China: 57.6% - China average tariff on imports from US: 32.6% Note: We have been updating this chart since September 2019

Our Fall 2025 Global Economic Prospects shows that real global GDP is projected to rise 3.1% in 2025 & 2.9% in 2026. #PIIECharts

🍂 It's fall meetings szn 🍂 We hope you can join us this week & next! Find all event pages, info, & registration here: www.piie.com/event-series...

New podcast @piie.com Maurice Obstfeld on trade and the international financial system - discussing everything as only he can With @anjali.v.bhatt #piieinsider www.piie.com/events/2025/...

In a large-scale trade war with China, the U.S. economy will suffer more than the Chinese economy, argued @adamposen.bsky.social :“The Trump administration may think it’s acting tough,but it’s in fact putting the US economy at the mercy of Chinese escalation" www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

WATCH: @adamposen.bsky.social explains why the substantial inflationary impact from tariffs & deportations has been lagged but is coming.

This was short and informative. Definitely worth a listen.

Trump and Xi are both posturing ahead of their upcoming summit, but PRC/Xi is escalating - as noted by @rushdoshi.bsky.social and Lingling Wei this is because they think (rightly) Trump will back off. *Taps the sign* (I warned y'all @foreignaffairs.com ) www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

Tariffs, deportations: inflation’s delayed hit. #econsky

New video! Why the substantial inflationary impact from tariffs and deportations has been lagged but is coming A real world based take on the US economic forecast Me excerpted from @piie.com Global Economic Prospects www.piie.com/newsroom/sho...

New video! Why the substantial inflationary impact from tariffs and deportations has been lagged but is coming A real world based take on the US economic forecast Me excerpted from @piie.com Global Economic Prospects www.piie.com/newsroom/sho...

@adamposen.bsky.social on gold buyers:

Inflation is going to be higher in the US in the news few years than most are forecasting, @adamposen.bsky.social says. Find slides & watch the Global Economic Prospects event here: www.piie.com/events/2025/...

Global growth holds up despite policy headwinds and rising risks - New blog by Karen Dynan Latest global economic propsects from @piie.com www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

🍂 As part of the @piie.com fall meetings on Oct 16, @schularick.bsky.social will highlight the euro's growing importanance in the global monetary system in a discussion with Maurice Obstfeld & Joseph E. Gagnon, moderated by @adamposen.bsky.social 🔗 Register now 👉 piie.com/events/2025/...

Global Economic Prospects: Fall 2025 Live today 1p ET @PIIE our Global Economic Prospects Karen Dynan with US and G20 growth outlook, me on why US inflation will be high, and Arvind Subramanian on the China Shock to LMIEs growth www.piie.com/events/2025/...

I joined @econofact.bsky.social Chats for a podcast episode "A Changing Economic Geography" drawing on my recent article in @foreignaffairs.com We discuss the consequences of a Post-American world economy. With Michael Klein econofact.org/podcast/a-ch...

A world with two predatory superpowers Martin Wolf channels my views and some complementary ones. Not complimentary to the policy approach of the Trump Administration. Martin is right and as ever says it so well. Via @financialtimes.com www.ft.com/content/f836...

LISTEN: @adamposen.bsky.social joined Hidden Forces Podcast to discuss the role of US Treasuries as a global safe asset, long-term prospects for American prosperity, & much more.

Starting soon 11a ET Live Webcast of Global Economic Outlook with @gregdaco.bsky.social and Ashley Costa We will discuss: Global fragmentation US fiscal tightrope: shutdown and beyond Immigration drag US inflation reacceleration Fed policy and independence www.ey.com/en_us/media/...