I was a guest on NPR’s On Point today discussing the U.S.-Argentina bailout. @piie.com @adamposen.bsky.social www.wbur.org/onpoint/2025...

Immigration policy that broadly seeks ways to entice foreign graduates of US universities to remain in the US, the overwhelming mass of evidence suggests, would serve the national interest. Terminating Optional Practical Training would do the opposite, @mclem.org says.

Listen to PIIE Insider LIVE wherever you get podcasts!

Join us for this interesting discussion about the music industry and instruments. With @cullenhendrix.bsky.social Julie Robbins from EarthQuaker devices and John Mlynczak from NAMM

"Trade wars screw up other things." Senator Tim Kaine explained how, separately from the economy, Trump's trade war is complicating US relationships with allies in other spheres, like defense.

The European Union is forging a new strategic alliance with Latin America www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

"It sends no real signals of value or use." Senator Rand Paul told us what he thinks about the trade deficit.

After over 25 years of negotiations, the EU has finally concluded a trade agreement with the Mercosur countries (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, & Uruguay). But the deal isn't quite done. @ceciliamalmstrom.bsky.social explains the importance of getting it signed:

NOVEMBER 7: It's been a year this week since the US presidential election...& one year of PIIE Insider LIVE! @adamposen.bsky.social is coming back onto the podcast to discuss what's changed in the US & global economy. Tune in live or subscribe wherever you get podcasts: www.piie.com/events/2025/...

NOW: Arvind Subramanian & coauthor Devesh Kapur present their new book "A Sixth of Humanity: Independent India's Development Odyssey" in conversation with Simon Johnson, moderated by Caroline Atkinson. Watch live:

This is a historic day for trade policy. Background here ⤵️

The fundamental problem with an expansive interpretation of IEEPA is that it would allow the president almost unlimited power that hasn’t been clearly authorized by Congress. @douglasirwin.bsky.social & Alan Wolff explain:

We have updated our Trade War Timeline with details from President Trump's Asia trip, including deals with China, Vietnam, Malaysia, Cambodia, & Thailand. Check it out:

WATCH: The US 'blinked' as the Trump administration attempted to gain leverage in trade negotiations with China, leaving negotiators in a weak position, Mary Lovely says.

Since Nixon did not invoke emergency powers under the Trading with the Enemies Act in 1971, a sanctions law & IEEPA's predecessor, there is no legal precedent for Trump invoking emergency powers under IEEPA to impose “reciprocal tariffs.” By Alan Wolff:

NOW: Conference on central bank independence in practice discussing evidence, accountability, legal considerations, financial regulation, & more. Featuring Lawrence H. Summers, John H. Cochrane, Richard H. Clarida, Roger W. Ferguson Jr., Daniel K. Tarullo, & more. Watch live & full agenda:

It's true that Reagan negotiated limits on imported goods to protect domestic producers of cars & steel from foreign competition. But he would not have embraced Trump’s protectionist trade wars. By @douglasirwin.bsky.social

Latest from PIIE's Marcus Noland: US-China fentanyl deal could benefit the economy and save lives www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

The US move to reduce fentanyl-related tariffs on China warrants cautious optimism. More detail is needed, but it should make contributions to both the US economy & public health. Marcus Noland explains:

The shutdown reinforces economists have long argued: Private sector data is valuable but can't replace official stats. Private sources offer speed, specificity, & innovation but cannot match the breadth, representativeness, consistency, transparency, or public commitment of official statistics.

Thanks to the shutdown, we didn't get the first estimate of Q3 GDP today. And private-sector data offer no good substitute for official GDP. The shutdown offers lots of lessons about what private sector data can and can't do. New at @piie.com : www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

Total real US goods imports from the world sharply increased in early 2025, likely due largely to importers frontloading goods before tariffs took effect. By July 2025, as tariffs were enforced, cumulative US real goods imports were ~10% above January-July 2024 level. #PIIECharts

Japan & Korea's investment in the US being directed by the White House "is totally unprecedented,” says Gary Hufbauer. “It’s a venture into state capitalism. You could say it’s Chinese capitalism with American characteristics.”

PIIE’s Doug Irwin writes: The Canadians Are Right About Reagan and Free Trade www.nytimes.com/2025/10/29/o...

Watching this terrific event right now @piie.com. Good to see some bipartisanship on this important issue. And the results from today's Senate vote on the Canada tariffs & yesterday's vote on the Brazil tariffs. www.piie.com/events/2025/...

NOW: We are pleased to host Senator Tim Kaine & Senator Rand Paul for a bipartisan conversation about tariffs & Congress's role in the trade war. Watch live: www.piie.com/events/2025/...

As Trump kicked off his trade war this year, some economists predicted a drop in US goods imports. The US did import less from some, notably China, but imported more from others, such as the EU & Mexico, in January-July 2025, compared with the same period last year. #PIIECharts

Congress's role in the trade war: A bipartisan conversation with Senators Kaine and Paul Live Today 5:45pm ET @piie.com www.piie.com/events/2025/...

The Ontario ad was right, @douglasirwin.bsky.social writes. Reagan would not have approved of Trump’s trade policies, especially aimed at allies. He also said in 1985 “one of the first victims of a protectionist trade war will be America’s farmers, who have it tough enough already.”

Must See TV! Mary E. Lovely on the prospect of a US-China trade deal www.piie.com/newsroom/sho...

For the balance of payments emergency & 10% import surcharge in 1971, Nixon did not claim emergency authority under the Trading with the Enemy Act. He claimed authority to impose sanctions under trade agreement laws for the tariffs he put into place.

The Bureau of Industry & Security's new rule expanding existing US export controls by targeting subsidiaries of already blacklisted foreign firms is akin to switching a sniper rifle for a shotgun that hits too many targets, @chorzempa.bsky.social writes.

We are thrilled (?) to report that our trade war timeline has now passed over 100 entries. Check it all out here:

Tune in all day on October 31 for our conference on central bank independence in practice, featuring Lawrence H. Summers, John H. Cochrane, Richard H. Clarida, Roger W. Ferguson Jr., Charles L. Evans, & more. Agenda & register to watch here: www.piie.com/events/2025/...

Trump's characterization of how bad it would be if he lost the SCOTUS IEEPA case is massively overstated, Maurice Obstfeld says. "The rhetoric & hyperbole have no basis in fact. Large swaths of the economy & all consumers would benefit if tariffs were lowered."

BREAKING: "USTR Initiates Section 301 Investigation of China’s Implementation of Phase One Agreement" 👉 ustr.gov/about/policy... ME: Here are the FACTS about China's purchases of US exports relative to the commitments set out under the US-China Phase One Agreement 👉 www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

The US Trade Representative is initiating an investigation into Trump's US-China "Phase One Agreement." Our research from 2022 found that China bought none of the extra $200 billion of US exports in the trade deal. Details, data, & so many charts here: www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

At the root of the recent currency instability, Argentina needs dollars to maintain the monetary framework it put in place last April following the new IMF program & loan. Maurice Obstfeld explains Argentina's credibility trap: www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

www.piie.com/blogs/realti... By Maury Obstfeld

What's going on in Argentina? PIIE's Maurice Obstfeld explains Argentina's credibility trap www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

NEW by Maurice Obstfeld: The moment for Milei's reform plans to succeed has likely passed. At a minimum, Argentina will need a new monetary framework & more multilateral conditional support, plus domestic consensus-building at home.

David Wilcox & Bloomberg Economics have taken a deep dive into the history of revisions to the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs estimates, particularly with an eye to detecting any evidence of malfeasance. None has been identified.

I've written recently at @piie.com about some of the costs of the United States's new, extremist policy of barring high-skill lawful immigrants—>

The United States had an asset of inestimable value: It was the place some of the most talented young people on earth dreamed to go. They've gotten the message: the US government sees them as unwanted jetsam. I spoke with the @csmonitor.bsky.social about the economic costs to the US—>

And this will probably be very visible as soon as Monday, October 27.

NEW: The looming question in the EU is how it might approach a full-blown fiscal crisis in its only nuclear power: France. Will France have to shift the considerable cost of maintaining its nuclear deterrent to the EU level along with a say in controlling it? By Jacob Funk Kirkegaard:

OCTOBER 29: Senators Tim Kaine & Rand Paul join us for a bipartisan conversation on Congress's role in the trade war. Info & register:

The Trump admin is almost sure to face the dilemma of whether to continue supporting Argentina, even if it means it might never be repaid. The IMF can say what that's like, having experienced throwing good money after bad in Argentina over decades. By @mdebolle.com:

By July, as tariffs were enforced, January-July 2025 cumulative real imports were still about 10% above the January-July 2024 level. Learn more about how the US merchandise trade deficit deepened through July 2025:

Trade war timeline update: New tariffs on medium- & heavy-duty vehicles such as trucks, medium- & heavy-duty vehicle parts, & buses go into effect on Nov 1, 2025. There are special rules for products imported from Canada or Mexico under the USMCA. More: