If past is precedent, this year's El Niño could easily cost the global economy ~$700 billion. If the international community does not step in, those costs to grow to $3 trillion in the following years. My latest for @piie.com. #elniño #econsky

It's gonna be wild watching those who downplayed climate change go through the stages of grief for the world as they knew it. This is denial.

In case you're wondering, yes, the East coast smoke is related to climate change. @zekehausfather.com explains in a new post on The Climate Brink www.theclimatebrink.com/p/canadas-bo...

New @iea.org estimates of costs if China fully weaponizes critical minerals: - Export restrictions on rare earths mean $6.5 trillion in lost production in autos, high-tech, defense and energy outside China - Export restrictions on graphite mean $300 billion in lost battery production outside China

Climate change conspicuously absent from the National Security Strategy, and here we have sabre rattling over wildfires.

So, the president is engaging in routine insider trading, which is bad. Now he wants to sell early access to his market-moving social posts to Wall Street. Forget Biden or Obama: any previous GOP president would have been impeached yesterday.

Great job, everyone. No notes.

I'm not a knowledgeable soccer fan but wow, these refs are going to have to get control of these teams and fast. These first twelve minutes have been a disaster.

We reject their sick perversion of this historic day. We reject the very idea of claiming freedom of speech to obliterate *all* the constitutional rights of people they hate and exclude by force—via ethnic cleansing (“remigration”) or other weapons. WE define ‘nation’. WE define ‘patriot’.

Just think how long it will take to clear out the throngs of joyful attendees.

Maybe credible, legible pathways to financial security would help.

I think it's more Hardin's lifeboat ethics + a white South African's pining for the good old days. Either way it's disgusting.

I sincerely hope this is the plan. Border Patrol? Yes. Fingermen? No.

This isn't something that gets better with a change in administration. We are going to lose millennia of accumulated, nonpartisan expertise because of this. And who will want to go into public service under these conditions?

The US-China trade war isn't just about tariffs—it's a medieval siege over the critical inputs of the future. No alliance safety nets. No third-party mediators. Just two superpower rivals testing their wills. Here is why the lack of historical "guardrails" makes this conflict so uniquely volatile.

The Trump administration has provided or is considering providing $8.9B+ in funding to 14 firms with ties to the Trump &/or Lutnick families that are actively working with the US government on mining deals, Paul Sonne & @EricLipton.bsky.social report.

This is absolutely savage

Read more here:

US student visa issuances dropped by about a third through September 2025, per @piie.com. Higher ed is a crucial service the US sells to global talent, but shifting immigration policy is putting a massive brake on demand, harming higher ed and US soft power.

Old reparations in new bottles, methinks. Speaking of which - it seems the press has been bending over backwards to avoid using this term, which is potentially incorrect technically but absolutely correct directionally (and in terms of how historians will think of it in decades to come).

Irony is dead

The part that's just slaying me is throwing in "competence" describing the painting of a large swimming pool like it's the National Labs on the case or something.

This guy is amazing, and so is the story of the man and the movement he honors.

This is your working class hero VP telling you that cruelty is the language of the working class. I do not agree.

A FIFA referee has spent more time in federal custody for being Somali than anybody on epstein's list for raping kids.

Look, I know it's hard to wait for you Kalshi bet to resolve but maybe don't give oxygen to the president's bad-faith arguments about mail-in voting.

I'm thrilled to be writing GREEN GIANT for PublicAffairs.

Here's a thought: perhaps judging a society by how well it makes work compatible with life might be a different way of measuring success.

I'm mostly business and odd thoughts here at @bsky.app but I do have other sides of me. For example, I've been drumming in punk, indie, and post-hardcore bands for 30 years. My newest project, LeBaron, finally has some music to share! lebaronmusic.bandcamp.com/track/waste-...

For those in the back: previous presidents weren't soft on Iran. They were realists about the realities of the Gulf - something the current administration claims to be but instead it's magical thinking all the way down.

I may be critical of the administration, but I am a firm believer that forewarned is forearmed, and that there are bad people who wish to do the American people harm. This makes every American less safe. Full stop. www.nytimes.com/live/2026/06...

The 11 metros targeted by this policy account for over a quarter of US GDP. I don't think this policy will actually be rolled out, but simply discussing it is a terrible idea and yet another sign that the GOP does not care about the economy - they care about hurting people who don't agree with them.

Ah yes. But all that is old will be new again soon.

Tariffs didn't encourage re-shoring of musical instrument production - in fact, they did the opposite, spurring further offshoring and eating the seed corn of the US musical instrument manufacturer's customer base: student musicians. www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

The medium tail of a ridiculous moment in American history.

I assume sentiment wasn't rosy in 1930, but the data don't go back that far. But worst in 80 years is something.

New @piie.com policy brief on Project Vault — the Trump administration's $12B plan to stockpile critical minerals. The strategic logic is sound. The design has some real challenges. 🧵 www.piie.com/publications...

We now have reparations for storming the capitol and trying to subvert the democratic process. We do not have reparations for slavery.

I can't say it any better.

I don't know where we go from here.

NOW: @chadpbown.com & @soumayakeynes.ft.com launch their new book "How to Win a Trade War"! Also featuring remarks from Greg Ip @wsj.com & @inumanak.bsky.social. Watch live:

Fresh off their @thedailyshow.com appearance @chadpbown.com and @soumayakeynes.ft.com are presenting "How to Win a Trade War" LIVE @piie.com right now. Join us online! www.youtube.com/watch?v=z1p6...

Trump's DOJ is funneling your tax dollars to a slush fund to pay off Trump's buddies & allies, like rioters who stormed the Capitol & assaulted police on Jan 6th.

An outrageous abuse of power.

If you missed it, read this by @cullenhendrix.bsky.social in @foreignaffairs.com on AI as potentially generating the political economy of petrostates in the G7 economies. Provocative thinking from @piie.com

Why So Few Babies? Perhaps because the future is deeply uncertain and the direction of travel hasn't been encouraging since I was in college. www.nytimes.com/2026/05/07/o...

BIG SCOOP: Energy industry reps tell me the Trump administration is now extrajudicially blocking all new wind projects in the United States Apparently the Pentagon is refusing to sign off on once routine FAA airspace clearances even when military assets aren’t around My latest for @heatmap.news

The United States government has just quietly terminated its program to support international students whose home countries are in crisis such as war. This program rightly had bipartisan support. It was a humane way to protect the best & brightest kids who are investing their future in America.

ICYMI in @foreignpolicy.com: the AI economy may end up looking a lot like a petrostate. Concentrated wealth and automation kill jobs, narrowing the tax base, breaking the fiscal contract and eroding democracy. Less investment in education, health follow: foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/30/p...

We usually think of the resource curse in terms of oil. But what if compute is the new crude? If AI allows states to generate massive wealth without needing a productive, tax-paying middle class, the democratic social contract starts to look very fragile. My latest for @foreignpolicy.com.

It is really, really hard to accept that my government is willing to put 1.3 million Zambian AIDS patients at risk to secure a mineral deal and get access to millions of people's health records. Tied aid could be a virtuous circle - but that would require some virtue.