Betting market odds for SCOTUS letting Trump keep his tariffs have tanked

A good day to re-up this thread on why tariffs are a poor tax policy instrument. Also relevant today, this broad use of tariffs definitely exceeds the President's authority under IEEPA. Early indications suggest the court agrees.

At least these small businesses are standing up for the integrity of the constitution (and demonstrating the harmful economic effects of tariffs). www.nytimes.com/live/2025/11...

And kudos to @kaine.senate.gov and Sen. Rand Paul for making such clear and persuasive arguments.

Watching this terrific event right now @piie.com. Good to see some bipartisanship on this important issue. And the results from today's Senate vote on the Canada tariffs & yesterday's vote on the Brazil tariffs. www.piie.com/events/2025/...

Excellent piece from @douglasirwin.bsky.social Reagan: "We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends — weakening our economy, our national security and the entire free world — all while cynically waving the American flag www.nytimes.com/2025/10/29/o...

I was honored to join this important effort opposing the IEEPA tariffs. Huge thanks to @stanveuger.bsky.social for his work on this.

A district court would preliminarily enjoin the razing but SCOTUS would stay the PI and allow the razing to occur while litigation concerning the razing’s legality proceeds.

The podcast version of our BPEA paper on “Who bears the burden of climate inaction?” (thread below, with @cwolfram.bsky.social and @knittelmit.bsky.social) just dropped . www.brookings.edu/articles/how...

The argument is that the National Guard is needed, over the objections of the Mayor and Governor, to manage the dangerous protests at a single federal building. The protests:

You may not believe in climate change, but the insurance industry does.

My new column with Maurice Obstfeld in VoxEU argues that the broad tariffs of the Trump administration are not well suited to tax policy, macroeconomic, or other aims. cepr.org/voxeu/column...

Ok so the Trump administration blew up the international agreement to tax CO2 from shipping. 14 years ago the Obama administration successfully opposed applying the EU carbon price to US airlines operating in Europe. Just because Ds and Rs both agree on something doesn't mean it's right.

When the facts are available and their meaning obvious, people who want power over you must eventually demand that you ignore what you see, what you know. "Freedom", wrote Orwell, "is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows."

South Koreans held their government accountable earlier this year. And now they’re protesting for American’s rights and democracy on No Kings too! Thank you South Korea! #NoKings ❌👑

5 Immigrants To America Won 2024 And 2025 Nobel Prize In Economics www.forbes.com/sites/stuart...

I thought I'd put the administration's proposed "compact" with universities in context, so I wrote the blog post below. It's especially for journalists covering this story! Many details about how the compact itself works and why the administration has retreated to this strategy.

Assessing how the greater reliance of fiscal policy on tariffs will affect the US tax system, from @kclausing.bsky.social and Maurice Obstfeld https://www.nber.org/papers/w34192

"While maintaining tariff rates at summer 2025 levels would generate large government revenues, such broad tariffs have significant downsides: Efficiency losses would approach one-third of revenues raised..." @kclausing.bsky.social #EconSky www.nber.org/papers/w34192

Great paper measuring the current costs of climate inaction in the U.S. @kclausing.bsky.social, @knittelmit.bsky.social, and @cwolfram.bsky.social find that wildfire smoke and higher insurance drive household costs more than direct temperature-related effects, both for costs and mortality risks.

Happy fiscal new year! Off to a rough start 🥲

🧵 (1/7) With @knittelmit.bsky.social and @cwolfram.bsky.social, happy to announce our new paper on “Who Bears the Burden of Climate Inaction?”, just posted for BPEA @brookings.edu. We find large climate cost impacts that vary by both geography and income. www.brookings.edu/articles/who...

🧵 (1/8) My new working paper with Maurice Obstfeld, “Tariffs as Fiscal Policy”, was just posted today @piie.com. Within, we evaluate the new role that tariffs are playing in the US economy. www.piie.com/publications...

Lovely piece on the importance of conversation across political divides. wapo.st/4gAmDHg

The Trump Administration’s continued efforts to break the 2025 funding deal reached in March are seriously undermining efforts to reach a funding agreement for 2026 because lawmakers need to know if they reach a deal, it will be kept. 🧵

With international efforts more difficult than ever, it is essential that willing jurisdictions buttress climate cooperation. A big shout out re. this new & important report, from a team led by @cwolfram.bsky.social. I was honored to be part of the working group. Read her thread, then the report!

"Lesotho Sends Trade Delegation to US to Plead for Lower Tariffs" www.bloomberg.com/news/article... The country ranks 167th in gdp per capita (PPP); has 40% of its population living in poverty; and has 24-28% unemployment. Shameful stuff.

Today marks a major development in U.S. climate policy. Gov. Newsom, the CA Assembly & Senate just released the final cap-and-trade—now called cap-and-invest—reauthorization bill: AB 1207. 1/ #climatesky #energysky

100 years from now when transportation is fully autonomous, people aren’t gonna believe we used to drive ourselves around “So people just had to get really good at driving so no one died in crashes?” “Oh, people died all the time. There were actually more car deaths than murders every year.”

Because we need more abusive tax shelters in the world... Trump Administration Halts I.R.S. Crackdown on Major Tax Shelters www.nytimes.com/2025/09/09/b...

🚨The Supreme Court today gives Trump a license to engage in racial profiling, with Justice Kavanaugh writing in concurrence to expressly endorse ICE and Border Patrol targeting any Latinos they observe in Los Angeles speaking Spanish and then demanding their papers.

Highest level of support since Gallup started asking this question a quarter century ago

Something to bear in mind when spending time online. Social media and polarization are... related. Nice graphic from @financialtimes.com.

Maybe instead of blaming statisticians, the Trump Admin. should look inside, at the self-harm generated by their deliberate negative supply shocks (tariffs & deportation).

Nice piece on the possibility of a coalition of the willing around heavy-industry carbon pricing, with quotes from my coauthor @cwolfram.bsky.social, a leader in this conversation. Talk of a global carbon pricing scheme grows louder ahead of COP30 www.ft.com/content/21b8... via @financialtimes.com

Before folks join ICE they might want to read the literature on immigration, which contradicts many of their assumptions about how immigrants affect the United States. Or they could just watch this "recruitment" video which might help: youtu.be/OjGHf7OvglM wapo.st/3VrzEJg

Survey respondents are connecting the dots between Trump's ruinous fixation on tariffs/deportations and their own dissatisfaction with economic disruption and cost increases. wapo.st/4n4W7ru

They should have thought of that before they did these embarrassing (and illegal) policies.

US Appeals Court rejects Trump Administration's IEEPA tariffs. The IEEPA tariffs are about 70 percent of them, by revenue. Link to full details here: storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...

A vivid depiction of the collateral damage from the Trump Administration's reckless tariffs. wapo.st/4nqyHx9

@kclausing.bsky.social analyses the tariff spree of the first 100 days of the Trump administration in conjunction w/ the largest tax increase in more than a generation. She discusses the consequences of the tariffs for the US economy and the larger world community. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Happy to join this letter in support of central bank independence.

(1/3) Kudos to @gabrielzucman.bsky.social, Danny Yagan, Emmanuel Saez, and Akcan Balkir; this paper makes excellent points about taxing top incomes. ** The corporate tax is an important (if now smaller) part of taxing the top; it is a ready-to-go way to reach unrealized capital gains.

It’s hard to overstate how big a deal this is - for the economy (ours and globally), for the rule of law, and for the proper and efficient function of government. www.nytimes.com/live/2025/08...

Your occasional reminder -- as arrivals on student visas decrease 28% -- that tuition from foreign students counts as an export, which means that every rejected student visa is going to contribute to the US trade deficit. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The politicized takeover of our independent central bank is economic disaster in the making. It is a signature move of two-bit authoritarian regimes worldwide. It is a signal that the United States is no longer a safe haven for investment.

My article The New Economic Geography is out today in @foreignaffairs.com Please read! (Ungated link, suitable for sharing) shared.outlook.inky.com/link?domain=...

Disgraceful that the government of the United States of America has taken the side of the polluters. Again.

Excellent commentary from @jasonfurman.bsky.social on the importance of maintaining the credibility of US economic data, and the dangers of this BLS nominee. The Reason Economists Are Worried About Trump’s Labor Statistics Choices www.nytimes.com/2025/08/13/o...