NEW from @centeronbudget.bsky.social: Without Congressional action, premium tax credit enhancements will expire, raising costs for nearly all marketplace enrollees and putting millions of those with the lowest incomes at risk of becoming uninsured when they lose $0 premium plans.

The Trump Administration’s continued efforts to break the 2025 funding deal reached in March are seriously undermining efforts to reach a funding agreement for 2026 because lawmakers need to know if they reach a deal, it will be kept. 🧵

The larger-than-usual downward revision last month was in large part driven by a negative skew in the job growth distribution among late reporting firms. That’s unusual, but it’s happened before when the pace of job growth slows rapidly. This print is more evidence that was the case

NEW analysis on the GOP megabill's core policy choice: each millionaire's tax cut is paid for by taking away health insurance from 4 people while reducing health care benefits from many others.

The harmful Republican megabill will give millionaires tax cuts averaging $80,000 per household and take health insurance from 4.7 million people by 2034, trading health coverage for millions for big tax breaks for the wealthy. More from @brendanvduke.bsky.social: www.cbpp.org/blog/republi...

NEW analysis on the GOP megabill's core policy choice: each millionaire's tax cut is paid for by taking away health insurance from 4 people while reducing health care benefits from many others.

The Trump Administration’s new spending cuts package is clearly illegal. David Super & Sam Berger explain four reasons why. www.cbpp.org/research/fed...

the new BLS 'head' ... turns out he's quite the NAZI his presentation given was in front of a multi panel painting of a ship ... a WARSHIP ... the pride of the German Navy ... the BISMARCK they air brushed out the German flag

An example of the explicit policy choice made by Congressional Republicans and Trump: they could have had zero cuts to Medicaid and SNAP while reducing the top 10%'s tax cut for the same fiscal cost. The top 10% would've still gotten a tax cut. They chose different.

NEW: Congressional Budget Office analysis of who wins and loses in the GOP megabill. Top 10% gets $13,600 a year (2.7% increase in income) Bottom 10% *loses* $1,200 a year (3.1% drop in income) This isn't shared sacrifice--it's class warfare.

Our analysis of the full Joint Committee on Taxation tables of the flawed GOP megabill: a $1T tax cut for the top 1% and a staggering $2.4T tax cut for the top 10%. Tax cuts of around $500B for households in the bottom 60%--the very folks who also face the brunt of cuts to Medicaid and SNAP.

Let's put the $3.4 trillion cost of Republican reconciliation law in context. Its tax cuts are so costly that Republicans could have extended all of the expiring tax cuts for families (including millionaires) without cutting SNAP/Medicaid...and it would have cost *less*.

The Congressional Budget Office's final verdict: the GOP tax and spending bill will cost $3.4 trillion over ten years.

Let's put the $3.4 trillion cost of Republican reconciliation law in context. Its tax cuts are so costly that Republicans could have extended all of the expiring tax cuts for families (including millionaires) without cutting SNAP/Medicaid...and it would have cost *less*.

The Congressional Budget Office's final verdict: the GOP tax and spending bill will cost $3.4 trillion over ten years.

In our analysis of the House bill, we showed how people in families with income above $500,000 have average annual incomes of $1.5 million. This bill will make our debt soar & increase inequality in every state. There's nothing beautiful about that. www.georgetownpoverty.org/issues/food-...

The big winners of the #BigUglyBill will be the small percentage of people who make over $500,000 per year, while millions will lose health care & food assistance. It's striking that this is particularly true even for some groups that disproportionately voted for Trump:

After three months of hard work, seems like the Trump Administration has added rounding to the Liberation Day formulas.

For 50 years GOP has relied on 3 big scams: *deficits pose civilizational threat (when Dem is in WH) *tax cuts for rich pay for themselves *safety net cuts needed to purge welfare cheats w/this bill, Trump's "working class GOP" is supercharging all three New piece: newrepublic.com/article/1976...

As @brendanvduke.bsky.social says, this isn’t a case of shared sacrifice. The bill isn’t asking everyone to tighten their belts a little in the name of deficit reduction. Instead it’s asking the poorest to tighten their belts so the richest can loosen their belts. That is profoundly unfair.

The speed at which he’s running away from his vow to protect Medicaid…haven’t seen him run this fast since January 6, 2021.

NEW: The Senate version of One Big Beautiful Bill is one big ugly transfer of wealth from low-income families to the rich. Americans struggling to get by will pay more for groceries & health care so the highest income families can get big tax cuts. This isn’t shared sacrifice.

The speed at which he’s running away from his vow to protect Medicaid…haven’t seen him run this fast since January 6, 2021.

NEW: The Senate version of One Big Beautiful Bill is one big ugly transfer of wealth from low-income families to the rich. Americans struggling to get by will pay more for groceries & health care so the highest income families can get big tax cuts. This isn’t shared sacrifice.

Congressional Republicans constantly say that we need to pass One Big Beautiful Bill—and make low-income families pay more for health care and groceries—to avoid raising taxes on families. But the tax cuts go far beyond the cost of extending the 2017 tax cuts for families

Congressional Republicans constantly say that we need to pass One Big Beautiful Bill—and make low-income families pay more for health care and groceries—to avoid raising taxes on families. But the tax cuts go far beyond the cost of extending the 2017 tax cuts for families

We do not yet have a full distributional analysis of the Senate GOP leadership's One Big Beautiful Bill, but here is a *rough* guess of the combined spending and tax cuts. Low-income families being asked to sacrifice on behalf of tax cuts for high-income families.

Will be on shortly!

👀

TONIGHT: @brendanvduke.bsky.social talks to @lawrenceodonnell.msnbc.com on The #LastWord at 10pm ET.

Important @jeffstein.bsky.social @hannahnatanson.bsky.social @carolynyjohnson.bsky.social @ddiamond.bsky.social story on Trump Administration plans to continue blatantly breaking the law and impounding funds and the funding bottlenecks they are creating/using to achieve their goal. 🧵

Republicans just lost 10% of the affirmative savings they wanted to get in reconciliation. Truly in awe of the Bernie Sanders HELP staff and the Jeff Merkley Budget staff.

More analysis as details emerge. But for now, it’s alarming that faced with these devastating uninsured numbers, Senate R leaders appear to be making the bill worse rather than better – increasing coverage losses & putting rural hospitals at even more risk in expansion states both red & blue.

Remember: the Senate bill shares the core health provisions of its House counterpart – a bill that would cause some 16M people to become uninsured & unable to afford needed care – & in some ways is even harsher, with potentially higher coverage losses. www.cbpp.org/research/hea...

This suggests that Republicans may add yet another deeply harmful health care cut to the Senate bill – a cut that would take health coverage away from even more people, shift massive, unaffordable costs to states, & could even lead some states to end their #Medicaid expansion.

Two generations of Republican deficit scolds: "The Social Security trust fund is a fiscal asteroid that will kill us all, like some kind of bankrupt dinosaurs!" OBBB: "Let's make it two asteroids."

Remember this next time a supporter of the "Big Beautiful Bill" says something about Social Security's future. Even as they speak, they're squandering the funds they could use to close the entire financing gap on tax cuts for the wealthy and large corps.

People have been debating and worried about the Social Security Trust Fund shortfall for decades. It's widely seen as an enormous fiscal challenge. One Big Beautiful Bill's tax cuts' permanent cost is actually *larger* than the Social Security Trust Fund shortfall.

A common claim is that One Big Beautiful Bill is deficit neutral when you account for economic growth. But we've got five independent macroeconomic analyses of OBBB and none of them find it's anywhere close to deficit neutral. In fact, two of them show it slows growth.

One Big Beautiful Bill is extraordinarily effective at redistributing income from Americans who are poor to Americans who are rich. It makes 30% of Americans worse off while doing the most for the top 10%.

Fixed it.

Fixed it.

I did a quick analysis of the distribution of One Big Beautiful Bill including and excluding the DOGE dividend.

This idea was shamelessly stolen from @brendanvduke.bsky.social (must follow). Rs are increasing the deficit by $2.4 trillion. They didn't HAVE to hurt the poor while helping the rich. That was a choice. If they held the bottom 30% harmless, the top 10% could still have a $9,400 boost!

NEW analysis by the Congressional Budget Office shows the "One Big Beautiful Bill" 1.) Makes the bottom 30% worse off 2.) Finances tax cuts that make the top 10% in particular better off. This is not shared sacrifice--it's a fiscal transfer from the bottom to the top www.cbo.gov/system/files...

Re point 1, multiple sources show minimal growth effects from OBBB, due to both poor policy design and the drag of higher interest costs. See this excellent graphic from @brendanvduke.bsky.social

A natural point of comparison for One Big Beautiful Bill's tax provisions is to the 2012 bipartisan deal making most of the Bush tax cuts permanent. They're both intended to be the resolution of temporary tax cuts and are about the same size (~1.7% of GDP).🧵