Some thoughts in lieu of this morning’s jobs report. open.substack.com/pub/jedkolko...

It's #jobsday! Except it isn't, because of the government shutdown. Which means that we're left sifting through alternative data sources to try to figure out what's going on in the labor market. So, what are those sources telling us? A 🧵:

Every month for the last 77 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has estimated Americans' unemployment rate This streak dies tomorrow Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months This blind spot will remain forever

Shutdowns hurt people and it will be good news when the government reopens. But it is vital that Congress also address both the looming massive spike in health care costs for 20M *and* deliver a funding deal that the President can’t undo the parts he just doesn’t like. 🧵

Had the pleasure of being on @wamu.org 1a call-in show with @emilypeck.bsky.social & @jenniferludden.bsky.social. A lot of people are concern about costs of a lot of things like healthcare, childcare, and groceries. the1a.org/segments/the...

"Good Morning Starshine" - Galt MacDermot #QuarantineHobby

"Still, the saga has laid bare the shutdown strategy at the White House, where Mr. Trump has been willing to shield only some Americans from the harms of a fiscal standoff that he has made no effort to resolve."

Add it to the list @itsafronomics.bsky.social. #TheDoubleTax

Now is the time to read @itsafronomics.bsky.social book #TheDoubleTax. www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/734115...

It is a relief that the Administration is finally agreeing to do the bare minimum and follow the law by using the #SNAP contingency reserve to partially fund November SNAP benefits & nutrition assistance in Puerto Rico & American Samoa.

Me, looking at all these Republicans touting the importance of SNAP as if they didn't spend all of 2025 successfully slashing the program.

Other than the fact that there is $5B in contigency reserves ready for this particular moment, why would he and Congress celebrate $187B cut from SNAP just a few months ago?

"Legal impediments?" Not one but two federal judges have now clarified that the Administration can use those contingency funds for November SNAP benefits—and in fact the law *requires* them to do so.

-Sep 30: USDA releases guidance saying they can use contingency fund -Oct 10: USDA tells states to prepare for lapse -Oct 23: USDA deletes guidance saying they can use contingency fund -Oct 24: USDA says it can’t use contingency fund -Oct 31: Courts tell USDA to release funds -Nov 1: no funds go out

A hostile press ain’t great, but it’s manageable. But democrats often make the mistake of trying to appease a hostile press that’s fundamentally unappeasable.

The racist and misogynist myth of the “Welfare Queen” is alive and well. The focus on SNAP has brought it back to national prominence. But please note: It never, ever went away. It shows up all the time. The entire trope around undeserving people has a poisonous line through our policies. Exhibit A

Good morning 🙏🏾

Today’s rulings confirm what’s been clear all along: the Administration has been sitting on billions of available dollars that it is legally required to use to fund November benefits for the 1 in 8 Americans who need SNAP to afford their groceries.

Segregation in public accommodations was second class economic citizenship. A dollar in the hands of a Black person did not come with the same rights to spend it that others had. Explore the history of this limited citizenship here: greenbookproject.osu.edu #GreenBookProject #CommunityMap #EconSky

From Danny Elfman's band to Danny Elfman's movie tunes. A classic from Tim Burton's The Nightmare Before Christmas. "This is Halloween" - Danny Elfman #QuarantineHobby #HalloweenFriday

Republicans control all branches of government and have the tools to help Americans keep health insurance and food on the table. Instead, millions are days away from losing SNAP benefits and facing skyrocketing premiums during open enrollment. @gbenga-ajilore.bsky.social on KSL News Radio

To recap: Trump is spending money Congress never appropriated to pay federal employees with guns, and cutting programs and grants even when Congress has appropriated funds. They literally have a contingency fund for SNAP that they are refusing to use. No Speaker has done more to weaken Congress.

Many know Danny Elfman as Tim Burton's go-to guy for scores but he did have a prior life as lead singer of Oingo Boingo. This is one of their classics. "Dead Man's Party" - Oingo Boingo #QuarantineHobby #Halloween

Another property on point for this moment is Warrior (HBOMax), great action drama that is ALSO about the pitting of working classes of all races against each other by 19th cent gilded age plutocrats, plus riots & racism that led to Chinese Exclusion Act. Historically whipsmart & hugely relevant IMO

Most (but not all) Black economists come to economics with a worldview that is outside of the mainstream of the profession. This typically includes insights from sociology since inequality, identity, and networks are areas with a longer history there. For an introduction to this, see the 🧵 below 👇

Anyway, this thread is one of the reasons that I'm happy that Black folks are mostly sitting things out right now. There will come a time when that will have to change, but for now white folk need to wake up from all of their delusions & get to work dismantling their fictions, including this lie.

So, given the SNAP crisis & that stupid DNC memo making the rounds it's important to revisit Reagan's decade long effort to demonize gov't spending on poor people by inventing the welfare queen lie. He's doing this as early as January of 1976. Please note the response from the crowd at the end.

The Trump Administration’s assertion that it can't use SNAP’s contingency reserves for SNAP benefits is contrary to: ▪️The plain language of the law ▪️Their own (now deleted) shutdown plan ▪️Guidance from prior Administrations We have the receipts:

Past administrations used #SNAP contingency funds to prevent benefit gaps. Despite clear legal authority, the current Administration refuses to do, putting 1 in 8 people in the U.S. who need SNAP to afford their grocery bill. www.cbpp.org/research/foo...

I know a thing or two about SNAP because President Biden appointed me to work in the office that oversees that program at USDA. You should know that people are going to go hungry this month because the Trump White House deliberately chose to withhold their benefits.

The hill I will die on is that everyone is wrong about Requiem for Dream, including Aronofosky. An old lady is scammed and then prescribed illegal drugs. A man needs medical care but is instead abused by racist police. This movie is about failures of the state, not the people living in it.

If the shutdown doesn’t end before nov 1, LIHEAP will be in trouble. States should increase shutoff protections.

Autumn.

You cannot crowdsource 8 billion dollars to make up for the loss of SNAP in November. Or you could, through your taxes, if the law were being followed. It is unlawful for the Trump Administration to leave the SNAP contingency fund untapped.

I think its rich that the administration is blaming Senate Democrats for their decision to not use the contigency fund. Recall, just a few months ago they were celebrating the megabill that cuts SNAP funding by $187B.

The portions of my book that are relevant to the contemporary moment are not the ones I would have chosen, but here we are.

My latest on the Administration's wildly unlawful shutdown of SNAP. To buy their argument, you must ignore the interpretation they took Sept. 30 and repeatedly in the first Trump Administration. Shamelesly and gratuitously cruel. Balkinization share.google/yaVtx89DJsIR...

Instead, it appears to be choosing not to use them in an effort to gain political advantage, leaving millions of families across the country to suffer as a result. www.cbpp.org/press/statem...

As CBPP President @sharonparrott.bsky.social said yesterday, the Administration could have, and should have, taken steps weeks ago to be ready to use these funds, as they are legally required to do.

That’s right, USDA’s shutdown plan dated September 30, 2025, seems to be gone from their website. But, you can find that excerpt on page 15 of the plan, here: web.archive.org/web/20251001....

Punchbowl reports “White House officials determined they do not have the authority” to use contingency reserves —billions of $ that Congress provided for use when SNAP funding is inadequate— to fund Nov. SNAP benefits. But, that’s not what USDA’s now-deleted shutdown plan says:

CPI data collection issues continued in September. A record 40% of missing data was subject to "different cell" imputation, meaning the data comes from a different region. Please see follow up tweets for some clarification of what this does and doesn't mean. #NumbersDay

TV themes are always fun to play. "The Munsters" #QuarantineHobby #HalloweenFriday

Next year's Social Security COLA will be 2.8%. More on how it works & why it matters below. Shout-out to the BLS staff called back during the shutdown to calculate inflation--with no paycheck. Their work allows 75M Social Security & SSI beneficiaries to have benefits that keep up w/rising prices.

Wait - serious question - is the ballroom going to be done in time for the White House Christmas tours?

The Administration is legally required to use contingency reserves to fund November benefits for the 1 in 8 Americans who need #SNAP to afford groceries, despite USDA Sec. Rollins’ claim that the Administration is unable to do so. My statement: www.cbpp.org/press/statem...

Republicans would rather shut down the government than protect health care for millions of Americans—many of whom will face sticker shocker when they see their premiums double at a time when they can least afford it. @gbenga-ajilore.bsky.social on @rolandsmartin.bsky.social

Here’s the thing: none of it actually matters to them and they’ll have different grievances next week. You can’t gotcha them

whomst amongst us