Really hard to think of anyone doing granular econ reporting as well as @lydiadepillis.bsky.social rn! This is a fantastic dive into how Private Equity is trying to cash in on the remodeling industry & (frequently) going bust on that bet

I’m excited to share that my dissertation, Military Manpower Policy and Women’s Labor Market Outcomes, received an Honorable Mention for the 2025 Upjohn Institute Dissertation Award. Announcement: www.upjohn.org/Upjohn-Insti... @upjohninstitute.bsky.social

Huge miss not blaming shrinking headcount on AI here for an Owns Wires company, non?

President Trump is eagerly awaiting the day he will have a new Fed chair, but in the race to replace Jay Powell, much of the conversation has focused on something that doesn’t feel particularly Trump-y. My latest column: www.politico.com/news/magazin...

I’m calmer than you are, dude

The one thing that might save us is Brexit morons at least stabilized immigration, whereas out degrowth morons have zeroed it out commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-bri...

This project was fueled by RAGE RAGE whenever I read or heard about (another) abuse of power by faculty RAGE whenever I was asked to discuss a paper about gender wage differentials that attributed gaps to "preferences" with no consideration of how "preferences" are formed

This Veterans Day I want to acknowledge the Black veterans of WWII who fought fascism and nazism and came home to fight for civil rights and democracy here. New research shows Black veterans were critical in securing the voting rights currently under attack. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...

"Exclusive"

Welcome to The War on Carbs

It’s truly a loss today. First time since 1948, the government didn’t collect information on unemployment. www.youtube.com/watch?v=6isk...

😬

This has interesting ramifications if you think about it - a good case for "the GOP should give in to the Dems and reopen ASAP" is "the economy is probably fine and it'd be good for the administration to have hard data to support that".

This is true & a persistent trend in the economy for basically all of 2025! Nerfing objective stats as an incumbent is bonkers Negative anecdotes are algorithmically powerful! It takes serious credibility to beat that How do the 'they're eating the pets' ppl not get this?

A weird shutdown dynamic: Hard Econ data has been pretty meh this year, but soft data has been awful We used to joke it was all vibes, but it’s literally all vibes now, and the vibes are bad

It's a sad #JobsDay At 8:30 am ET, BLS was scheduled to deliver one of the most-important signals abt how economy is changing. Prior government shutdowns never prevented a month's household data collection. This one has. #EconSky #NumbersDay #JobsDay

Great point on why people feel so bad about a labor market that's pretty OK by top-line numbers. Macroeconomically, this is also not great! For all the promise of an AI productivty boom, job lock is a known drag on wage and productivty growth, a huge headwind right now

SCOTUS is hearing case against Trump's tariffs. Listen along! I'll offer some thoughts as we go along. bsky.app/profile/todd... www.supremecourt.gov/oral_argumen...

Good morning!

This is just not true. The Challenger data is not a representative sample of workers and these mostly reflect changes in data collection practices. The BLS data is a better sample, and layoffs in 2025 have not been high.

When I say it’s all vibes rn, I mean it pretty literally www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

My personal read is it’s going to be hard to ease monetary policy, in general, if every short term rate cut comes with a pop in 10 year yields

Promise?

I was honored to join this important effort opposing the IEEPA tariffs. Huge thanks to @stanveuger.bsky.social for his work on this.

apparently "polls better in retrospect" applies to more than just former presidents

The idea that we were getting jobs or inflation data from this month has been pretty tenuous for a while. Apparently we get 2.5 more hours of BLS press office staffing this am. If we don’t have news by noon ET this is as close to confirmation of data blackout as we’ll get

Shoutout to the Gecko for finally coming through on CPI we're back down to 3.1% car insurance inflation! www.bls.gov/news.release...

I guess the good news is things are pretty boring! Energy tailwind holding down inflation appears to be over however www.bls.gov/news.release...

V excited to have what I Hope is V boring data about to drop!

Very excited to get some @rooseveltinstitute.org tax nerding on this pm!

Shaken trees are healthy trees!!!

WSJ confirmed this story today. They claim this data collaboration has been publicly known since 2018. My sources say it's a different collaboration but I'm willing to believe it's the same. (I talked to former Fed officials who hadn't heard of the collab) www.wsj.com/economy/cent...

We are all Keynesians now

Had not seen this reported elsewhere, that ADP has stopped sharing micro data with the Fed since the government shutdown. Article says Waller 'disclosed' this arrangement in an August speech, angering ADP, but the Fed has been transparent about this project for years (see, Cajner, et al., 2018).

um.... seems bad?

This is a v well-reported story! Don’t read @ddayen.bsky.social or @prospect.org for quotes from ppl like me, read for the inside baseball on private data at the fed!

Looks like an, ahem, *interesting* day in financial markets… Sure would be great to have the regular flow of data on the real economy rn!

I got talked out of so many controlled flight into terrain metaphors… TLDR: The economy is super confusing rn, and we don’t get live data during a shutdown

You will pry crucial statistics from my cold, dead hands.

Some thoughts on SB 79 and how YIMBYs finally did it: publiccomment.blog/p/happy-hour...

Huge propaganda error invading cities full of people cooler than you during Spirit Halloween Season

September CPI will be released in two weeks on Friday, Oct 24, 2025 at 8:30 AM ET to accommodate the SSA COLA adjustments despite the government shutdown. Jobs report won't be released though www.bls.gov/bls/092025-c...

If your research aligns with @upjohninstitute.bsky.social's mission, we would consider hosting. Lots of great folks here. www.upjohn.org/about

A statistical release Army of One! Quite literally! The entire BLS is furloughed except the Comissioner* per contingency plan www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov... *acting commissioner

Always fun to get an @andrewvandam.bsky.social read like this

We used to be a country

I mean, they really nailed the headline this time

"The government shutdown is expected to delay the Labor Dept. report, leaving more questions about the health of the economy. "Labor economist [me] said the jobs report... is the 'most important economic data release in the world. Period.'” foxbaltimore.com/news/nation-...

Challenger hiring intentions for September way down vs last September — once employers hear that Congress cut taxes months ago I’m sure that’ll change:

This is quote isn't super germane to the article, but you gotta respect @nicktimiraos.bsky.social for getting good material into a great writeup! www.wsj.com/politics/pol...