You: panicking about noosy ADP data Me: www.nytimes.com/2025/09/30/b...

If you care about public access to the best data in the world, you owe some thanks to Bill Beech, @ericagroshen.bsky.social and Friends of BLS today www.friendsofbls.org/updates/2025...

Former Fed staffer(now ISI/Evercore) John Roberts' model-based analysis of Fed’s latest economic projections finds median SEP outlook reverses hawkish tilt introduced in June & is more clearly consistent with an approach of “looking through” the effects of tariffs on inflation.

And now I start working my way through that list. I'm glad to have some extra time for home production in the middle of my holiday season, but frustrated to be forced to pause what I was in the middle of doing yesterday. And I really don't like the look of this: kalshi.com/markets/kxgo...

🥳

1 clear takeaway from JOLTS today: If this is the last major economic data release before they stop for a government shutdown...It's a really bad time for a government shutdown

This isn't a forecast/prediction but the timing of this shutdown and going into the dark on economic data in this moment gave me some flashbacks to Bush/Gore in Florida in Nov/Dec 2000. @hmeisler.bsky.social

This is so good!

I'm in regular touch with people inside BLS who I'm confident would tell me if they were being pressured to change numbers. (Are YOU a staffer at BLS or another stats agency with something I should know? Reach out!)

Friday's jobs report will provide key evidence on whether slower hiring is turning into deeper weakness in the labor market. If there is a jobs report on Friday at all. My story on how a shutdown could leave us flying blind at a vital moment for the economy. #EconSky www.nytimes.com/2025/09/30/b...

Not great!

[ominous music playing] "A delay of the CPI release during October of each year might have an impact on the Cost of Living Adjustment announcement by the Social Security Administration."

In every category surveyed — groceries, housing, child care, medical bills and retirement — women are more likely to say they are worried about covering those expenses. Latinas consistently reported higher rates of worry than any other group across nearly all categories 19thnews.org/2025/09/poll...

repeating the phrase "full books" as I slam my head against my desk until I pass out

"To keep fuel prices low, the White House has basically subcontracted its “energy dominance” goals to Saudi Arabia and OPEC."

After 2 years of hitting refresh, I am expecting big news at 10 am UNPAID ELDERCARE DATA!!!! #econsky

Once again, Trump trade deals undermine rules-based trade, don't carry the force of law.

Can confirm Got a policymaker asking ‘why and how do utility rates go up?’ this week [involuntarily laughing for an unprofessionally long time] It’s complicated (IYKYK)

This starts coherently. Then that last sentence hits and…

When the expanded child tax credit expired, poverty went up. This was not about the economy, but about the safety net.... These are the facts.

1-10, where does this rate on the Kimmelmeter? (I’m friends with too many feds so this seems like obvious self harm, but idk how obvious it is IRL)

10/10 headline Weird that trade is ~1/3 of global GDP yet murder is 💯 legal in international waters*

Nah, I'm good.

Happy BPEA day to all who celebrate! 1pm: Employment Impacts of the CHIPS Act 2:30pm: Trade War and the Dollar Anchor 🔥4pm: What Next for r*? A Capital Market Equilibrium Perspective on the Natural Rate of Interest

Just checking in on my etymology app and… Yeah

12 Senators want to know the Administration's plans for federal #statistics by 10/6. “The integrity of America’s #economicdata is fundamental to our economic prosperity and global leadership – it is not a partisan issue...” www.banking.senate.gov/imo/media/do... #econsky

Should I write a Dutch Disease explainer? The sectoral effects of the AI boom are starting to feel like a parallel

Nature abhors a Rapture Vacuum

🤔

They had already put a note to that effect on their report. I pointed out their errors some months ago and they eventually conceded I was correct. docs.google.com/document/d/e...

More bad news for US exports www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

This wasn’t even for me but my fam let me open it Marry someone who gets you!

frog, meet scorpion.

social science is my passion

It is, once again, de-infrastructure week

Just pointing out the incoherence of ‘we must replace BLS leadership because of falling response rates’ and ‘we aren’t going to let you stem falling response rates by following up when they don’t respond’. (Census collects data for BLS too.)

#BLS has delayed the 2024 Consumer Expenditures Survey annual release. This is likely due to the severe understaffing in the agency. Staff losses and hiring freeze are taking their toll. www.bls.gov/cex/notices/... #econsky

Saving yall a click: this is the annual consumer expenditure survey release. Not super time sensitive, and annual releases are more likely to be delayed with budget cuts This is a big deal for researchers, but shouldn’t affect real time inflation measures

This month just keeps getting better

Excited to be attending the book event for @itsafronomics.bsky.social and the (sadly timely) book #TheDoubleTax.

A good conversation about the importance of maintaining the integrity of government economic data -- and investing in improvements. @brookings.edu Here's the video www.youtube.com/live/SnccjSu...

@chrisrugaber.bsky.social asked a good Q in yesterday's Fed press conference--could tariffs be reducing labor demand as companies unable to pass them along thru higher prices to cautious consumers protect margins instead by reducing hiring & labor costs. That seems to be just what CEOs are reporting

Conveniently, a week after the Fed Meeting, so they won't have to jack up rates immediately if tariffs get tossed

We are definitely Big Turkey

Methinks the Administration is about to learn the Fed doesn't set ALL, or even most, interest rates

Enjoying JPow schooling this Fox Business hack who ALWAYS asks these clown questions

This pushed 10y yields to session highs and reversed almost all the 2y yield move, stocks session lows. Market thought he would downplay inflation a lot more.

I enjoy clowning on Steven Miran as much as the next guy, but he has boldly compromised between Trumps nonsensical 3% rate cut, and EVERYONE on the FOMC's .25% cut with a 1% cut. A bridge was built today

Very disappointed I can only single out Miran in 2025🤔 I also would assume the bottom three dots on neutral rate as all Trump appointed

Anyone want to play Spot The 'Make Me Fed Chair' Projection? www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypoli...