Question from @vtg2.bsky.social : are you worried about a contraction in AI investment? A: These companies actually have earnings. Clearly data centers are a source of growth. But consumer spending is much bigger than that and continues to defy forecasts this year. [my argument all the time!!!]

The Fed isn’t getting lots of data during the government shutdown, and the data it does have are confusing. www.politico.com/news/2025/10...

Everything is terrible, but here is Proust on newspapers

Meanwhile @vtg2.bsky.social and I have a discussion in @politico.com today that places the Framework a little more firmly in intra-Democratic policy debates. (With a social preview image that strongly implies Ezra Klein was a White House aide.) /8 www.politico.com/news/magazin...

COLUMN: Dems vowed to take on the high cost of living. But they’ve yet to offer a cohesive solution — and there’s even disagreement about what’s causing the affordability crisis, writes @vtg2.bsky.social. One former White House aide wants to help Dems resolve that.👇

Abundance vs. Populism: A Former White House Aide Wants Democrats to Have It Both Ways My Q&A with @mtkonczal.bsky.social on the politics and policy around affordability: www.politico.com/news/magazin...

Democrats across the country are going all-in on attacking Trump’s global tariffs. “The time is right for Democrats to lead again on trade,” Colorado Gov. Jared Polis told me. My latest column: www.politico.com/news/magazin...

Q from @vtg2.bsky.social: As markets have questions about Trump's intentions w/ the Fed, what would you point to as signs that the FOMC is making decisions on the economic outlook not the political picture? A [paraphrasing]: Listen to communications, "you would be able to tell".

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday said it is cutting interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point in a bid to protect the weakening job market, a move that is unlikely to end President Donald Trump’s broadsides against the central bank. www.politico.com/news/2025/09...

1/ In a recent article, @conorsen.bsky.social suggested once the pool of unemployed gets big enough, managers will start ramping up layoffs. In the two relevant recessions for which we have JOLTS data, the relevant threshold (to the degree one exists) was around 5%. cc @weisenthal.bsky.social

The stakes are very high. Fed is “for cause” or “at will”

Wall Street has shrugged off President Trump’s attempt to Lisa Cook, even as the matter is destined to reach the Supreme Court. But the Fed’s insulation from the president could eventually hinge on whether investors start to panic. My latest column: www.politico.com/news/magazin...

Stephen Miran, President Donald Trump’s nominee for an open seat on the Federal Reserve, said he would take an unpaid leave of absence from his current role at the White House rather than resign. www.politico.com/live-updates...

NEW COLUMN: People are applauding Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum for her handling of US President Donald Trump. But why? Because not losing is what counts as winning in global leadership today. (Also read for some intriguing nuggets at the end of this piece.) www.politico.com/news/magazin...

Much as I love the convenience of streaming services…. I’m kinda ready to bring back Blockbuster

NEW: Judge Cobb gave no hint about how she might rule on Lisa Cook’s firing, and the uncertainty is likely to linger into next week as she seeks further argument on the issue. w/ @joshgerstein.bsky.social @vtg2.bsky.social www.politico.com/news/2025/08...

COLUMN: Trump is testing the Fed’s "don’t panic" strategy, writes our @vtg2.bsky.social.

Scott Alvarez, who served as the Fed’s general counsel, said the Trump-Cook clash presented a dilemma with swirling unknowns for the Fed. “Do they walk out on an innocent person, or do they keep a guilty person?” Alvarez said. “They don’t want to be the one that decides that kind of thing.”

The Fed’s response to President Trump’s attempted firing of Lisa Cook is characteristic of the Powell era: the subtlest, least controversial form of resistance. My latest column: www.politico.com/news/magazin...

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted Friday that the Fed might cut interest rates soon but added a subtle bit of context: It’s not because President Donald Trump is pressuring him. www.politico.com/news/2025/08...

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is in a tense moment — and it’s not only because of the unyielding attacks he’s facing from President Donald Trump over his refusal to cut interest rates www.politico.com/news/2025/08...

“These are people like me and people like you ... That’s just where they sleep.” www.nytimes.com/2025/08/18/u...

In this week’s Morning Money: Capital Risk, I write about a buzzy topic on Wall Street: Treasury’s management of the debt www.politico.com/newsletters/...

Trump's shortlist for Fed Chair: -Fed Vice Chairs Philip Jefferson and Michelle Bowman -Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan -Former St. Louis Fed Chair Bullard -Marc Sumerlin -Kevin Hassett -Kevin Warsh -Christopher Waller www.politico.com/news/2025/08...

Admin officials are expanding their list of candidates to replace Fed Chair Powell next year as they search for someone who can garner the trust of both the president and financial markets. More private sector names are also likely to be considered: www.politico.com/news/2025/08...

🚨Global supply shock ‼️New US #tariffs taking effect on August 7 are set to raise the average tariff rate to 17.6% — the highest level since the early 1930s – from 2.8% at the start of the year

Must read: Politico’s Victoria Guida interviews PIIE’s David Wilcox about the BLS and importance of trustworthy government statistics www.politico.com/news/magazin...

My @piie.com colleagues @jedkolko.bsky.social and @davidwilcox.bsky.social have well considered views on how to improve US government statistics. Jed's will be published tomorrow. Today, please read David's in-depth interview with @vtg2.bsky.social via @politico.com politi.co/4meQWoI

"You’re asking me to contemplate the nuclear scenario": A top economist gets candid about Trump’s firing of the BLS chief with our economics correspondent @vtg2.bsky.social👇

Excellent interview by @politico.com's @vtg2.bsky.social of a true policy econ master, piie.com Senior Fellow David Wilcox. He has served as Fed Research Director, Treasury Asst Sec for Econ Policy, & CEA senior economist. www.politico.com/news/magazin...

“Unfathomable amounts of wealth depend on the integrity of the development process behind the release of these statistics” My Q&A with former Fed official David Wilcox following Trump’s firing of the BLS head www.politico.com/news/magazin...

For six months, I've said that threats to economic data have been more collateral damage than intentional harm. No longer. Firing the head of the BLS is five-alarm intentional harm to the integrity of US economic data and the entire statistical system.

The odds that President Donald Trump will get an interest rate cut soon just went up. But not for the reasons he wants. www.politico.com/news/2025/08...

Q from @vtg2.bsky.social: Do you see the interest in the Fed renovations as directly tied to the push to lower rates? A: Not for me to say. We had a nice visit. Follow up: any aspects raised that make you reconsider parts? A: Pleased the President said he wanted us to get it completed ASAP.

How investors and CEOs could be blindsided by what’s ahead on tariffs and the Fed By @samjsutton.bsky.social and me, in our debut weekly edition of Morning Money: Capital Risk www.politico.com/newsletters/...

Mr. Trump goes to the Fed. A curious encounter follows. www.politico.com/news/2025/07...

Deutsche Bank economists find President Trump firing Chair Powell would only save $12B-15B on interest costs through 2027, even if Treasury skews debt issuance to bills, which mature in a year or less (removing Powell would make short-term rates go down & long-term rates go up)

Behind Trump's move to back off firing Powell: Lawyers warned against it.

What happens next to the Fed may hinge on a counterintuitive question: Can temperate voices persuade Trump that the central bank’s insulation from immediate political pressures — from him — is actually good for him? My latest column: www.politico.com/news/magazin...

What happens next to the Fed may hinge on a counterintuitive question: Can temperate voices persuade Trump that the central bank’s insulation from immediate political pressures — from him — is actually good for him? My latest column: www.politico.com/news/magazin...

House Dem leaders won't whip against the landmark crypto bills that will be on the floor later this week, despite opposition from the party’s top member on the Financial Services Committee.

BREAKING via AP: At least 161 people are still missing after catastrophic floods in Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott says.

COLUMN: Republicans have long been in favor of lower rates and a simpler tax code. For Trump, only one of those priorities mattered, writes our economics correspondent and Capital Letter author @vtg2.bsky.social.

My latest column: How the One Big Beautiful Bill departs from decades of GOP rhetoric on taxes www.politico.com/news/magazin...

Q from @vtg2.bsky.social on the monetary policy review currently underway: will a new Chair make it obsolete? A: No, this is the FOMC's document. "I've never heard anyone raise this issue that, you know, a new Chair might want to come in and go in a completely different direction."

Fed’s Powell on tariffs and monetary policy: “Don't know what the right way for us to react will be, I think it's hard to know with any confidence, how we should react until we see really the size of the effects, and then we think we'll start to make a better judgment.”

For my latest column, I spoke with Trump chief economist Stephen Miran about the economic effects of tariffs www.politico.com/news/2025/06...

I don’t agree with this take. It was well-covered that IEEPA had never been used for tariffs before, and because of that fact, it would’ve been hard for a straight news reporter to draw definitive conclusions about how a court would define the scope of economic emergency.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and President Donald Trump met at the White House on Thursday for the first time in the president’s second term, following recent comments from Trump voicing frustration that Powell hasn’t cut interest rates. www.politico.com/news/2025/05...

I can’t believe anyone in institutional finance would say something like this with a straight face. By that logic baseball cards are a safe investment: www.wsj.com/finance/inve...