NEW: Adriana Kugler, who abruptly left the Fed, repeatedly violated the central bank’s trading rules. New disclosures show trades in individual stocks, like Apple, Southwest Airlines and Cava, many of which took place during the blackout period ahead of policy votes www.nytimes.com/2025/11/15/b...

Update: September jobs report is coming out on Thursday! www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lap... #NumbersDay

The shutdown is over. The data drought is not. What we know (and mostly don't) about when the data flow will resume, what we'll never get, and what the lasting damage could be: www.nytimes.com/2025/11/14/b... #EconSky

This is tonight! Hope to see some of you there.

Forgot until just now that this is one of those years when the CPS reference week for November comes early. Is this week. www.bls.gov/cps/definiti...

I'm honored to be delivering the annual Ellen C. Gstalder Memorial Lecture at Georgetown next week. I'm talking about what A.I. will mean for the job market. And since the real answer is "I have no idea," I'll be looking at it through a historical lens. Details: events.georgetown.edu/event/35638-...

We did get *some* data today: Jobless claims increased slightly in the final week of October. But the four-week average actually fell. Still no sign of a surge in layoffs in these numbers. #NumbersDay

It's #jobsday! Except it isn't, because of the government shutdown. Which means that we're left sifting through alternative data sources to try to figure out what's going on in the labor market. So, what are those sources telling us? A 🧵:

AP calls it for Mamdani.

We should be cautious in interpreting claims filings right now, several hundred thousand people have been fired from the federal govt but most will be ineligible for UI because layoffs were either structured as voluntary deferred resignations (Fork in the Road) or for cause (provisional workers)

We now have unemployment claims data for all 50 states for the week ending 10/25. Still no sign of a big uptick in initial claims. (Note that these charts do NOT include federal workers -- see down thread for those.) #NumbersDay #EconSky

Highly recommend @colbylsmith.bsky.social's interview with Steven Miran. She really pushes him to explain his thinking on interest rates, immigration, and other topics. (Whether you find his explanations credible is up to you.) #EconSky www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/u...

Shohei and Vladdy both up in the 11th.

Let’s play another nine, shall we?

Well, can’t say this isn’t dramatic.

Long line to vote in Crown Heights, Brooklyn at noon on Saturday, for whatever prognostication value that carries (probably not much).

Since we are having another round of high profile layoff discourse this week (with ‘blame AI’ to spice things up): 1/ High profile mass layoffs have been the “kid who cried wolf” for the last few years. Maybe this is changing but we don’t see it, yet, in the data.

Powell says there were “strongly differing views about how to proceed in December" and that another cut is "not a foregone conclusion."

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point for a second straight meeting, as widely expected. Statement: www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/p... Full coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2025/10...

The Treasury has collected $31 billion in tariff revenue so far in October, and looks on track to set another monthly record. Most analyses show that most of that money is being paid by American companies and consumers. #NumbersDay #EconSky

CPI data collection issues continued in September. A record 40% of missing data was subject to "different cell" imputation, meaning the data comes from a different region. Please see follow up tweets for some clarification of what this does and doesn't mean. #NumbersDay

Enjoy this inflation report. It could be the last one we get for a while. www.nytimes.com/2025/10/24/b... #NumbersDay #EconSky

U.S. consumer prices rose 0.3 percent in October and were up 3.0 percent from a year earlier. "Core" prices, excluding food and energy, were up 0.2 percent month-over-month and 3.0 percent year-over-year. Data: www.bls.gov/news.release... Full coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2025/10... #NumbersDay

Thanks to @bencasselman.bsky.social and @colbylsmith.bsky.social for featuring my comments. Here's a chart showing that spending on everyday household items tends to be more equal across income quintiles but has been growing more unequal over the past few years. www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b...

New w/ @bencasselman.bsky.social: Wealthy Americans, buoyed by a booming stock market, are spending freely. Lower-income households, stung by inflation and a slowing labor market, are pulling back www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b... @nytimes.com

NEW from me: California keeps losing tech jobs Amidst the AI boom, the US is in the largest sustained drawdown in tech employment since the dot-com bust And what tech jobs remain continue to leave California for the rest of the US 🧵 www.apricitas.io/p/california...

Aggregate measures say the economy is doing pretty well right now. But that obscures a growing divide: Wealthy Americans, buoyed by stock market gains, are spending. Low-and middle-income Americans are struggling amid inflation and a weakening labor market. #EconSky www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b...

Nominal wage growth for the bottom quartile is below late 2010’s levels while core inflation and interest rates are higher — it’s probably the worst time for that cohort since at least the early 2010’s:

Officially now old enough that Spotify now just lumps my music in with everything else deemed generically “I dunno, a long-ass time ago.”

I modified the #SahmRule, by @claudia-sahm.bsky.social, creating 3.2k spacial Sahm Rules, which show that #recession exposure can differ by place/time. The bellwether of recessions are rich/white counties but they're slow; the fastest indicators are poor/black counties, but they're noisy.

Unemployment is surging for Black workers — and federal government layoffs will only make it worse. Important story from @lydiadepillis.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2025/10/12/b... #EconSky

UPDATE: The September CPI report will be released Oct. 24. BLS says the data is needed to calculate the annual cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security benefits. "No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services." www.bls.gov/bls/092025-c...

“.. It isn’t clear when the Consumer Price Index report, originally scheduled for Oct. 15, will ultimately be released. But it will almost certainly be in time for the Federal Reserve’s next meeting ..” @bencasselman.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2025/10/09/b...

Full story now online: www.nytimes.com/2025/10/09/b... #EconSky #NumbersDay

SCOOP: The Bureau of Labor Statistics is preparing to release the September C.P.I. report despite the shutdown. (Exact date still unclear -- almost certainly not the original Oct. 15 date.) #EconSky #NumbersDay

“It’s another obstacle being thrown in their path,” said @ericagroshen.bsky.social, #CornellILR senior labor market advisor and former Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner, about the potential impact of a federal government shutdown on the bureau’s efforts to hire new staff.

A few quick #JOLTS 📈: Starting with: Job openings are way down from their peak, but they've fallen slowly if at all in recent months. No obvious sign that labor demand is falling off a cliff. #NumbersDay

Still no evidence of major cracks in the job market in August JOLTS data. Openings, hires, layoffs all close to flat. Revisions were modest. #NumbersDay www.bls.gov/news.release...

Three responses I'm hearing a lot of here: 1. "Aha! Any excuse to hide the bad numbers!" 2. "The numbers were cooked anyway so who cares?" 3. "Fine, we'll just rely on private data." Let's address all three in a 🧵:

Friday's jobs report will provide key evidence on whether slower hiring is turning into deeper weakness in the labor market. If there is a jobs report on Friday at all. My story on how a shutdown could leave us flying blind at a vital moment for the economy. #EconSky www.nytimes.com/2025/09/30/b...

Update: Commerce has now also posted its shutdown plan. BEA would completely shut down, and Census would shut down apart from some operations related to the 2030 decennial census. So no retail sales, international trade, PCE, GDP... www.commerce.gov/sites/defaul... #EconSky #NumbersDay

The Department of Labor has released its plan in the event of a government shutdown. Key takeaway for econ data: There will NOT be a jobs report on Friday (or any subsequent data releases) if funding isn't restored in time. #NumbersDay #EconSky www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov...

Inside the Fed, there is a preoccupation with doing whatever possible to avoid provoking Trump, which at times has meant complying with his wishes. That cautious approach is drawing scrutiny as its independence comes under threat www.nytimes.com/2025/09/15/b... @nytimes.com @bencasselman.bsky.social

If the federal show of force in Washington has had a deterrent effect on crime, it appears to have deterred entirely normal aspects of city life, too. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/11/u...

A few quick charts. First, the big picture: Overall consumer prices were up 2.9 percent from a year earlier. Over the past three months, prices have risen at a 3.5 percent annual rate. #NumbersDay

U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4 percent in August and were up 2.9 percent from a year earlier. "Core" prices, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3 percent from a month earlier and 3.1 percent year-over-year. #NumbersDay Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...

US job growth for the year ending March 2025 was significantly weaker than expected. Why? We asked @bencasselman.bsky.social from @nytimes.com www.wnyc.org/story/the-la...

The U.S. economy probably added half as many jobs in the 12 months ending in March as previously reported, according to the preliminary benchmark revision data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday. #NumbersDay www.nytimes.com/2025/09/09/b...

Reupping this @bencasselman.bsky.social @colbylsmith.bsky.social @nytimes.com piece from July that lays much of this out. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/02/b...

It's not a college grads unemployment crisis, it's a young people unemployment crisis. 1/ The headlines have been dominated by how hard it is for recent college grads to find a job. But it's even harder for recent high school grads, and getting rapidly worse. Blame weak hiring.