While we're on the subject of inflation measurement: @usbls.bsky.social just released a background paper outlining the options for dealing with the missing Consumer Expenditure Survey data from the period of the shutdown. www.bls.gov/cpi/addition... #EconSky

Update on the legal services inflation drama! This will be a bit of a wonky thread, but the bottom line is that a lot of people are breathing a sigh of relief about how BEA handled this morning's data. #EconSky #NumbersDay

OK, gobs of data this morning, and no way I'm going to get to all of it, but a few 📈📉 on the highlights...

Thursday a.m. data: Q1 GDP: +2.0% Q1 final private demand: +2.5% March consumer prices: +0.7% m/m, +3.5% y/y March core prices: +0.3% m/m, +3.2% y/y Q1 ECI: +0.9% q/q, +3.4% y/y More analysis to come once I get to digest it all a bit. #NumbersDay

Powell is staying, for now: “Afer my term as chair ends on May 15th, I will continue to serve as a governor for a period of time to be determined. I intend to keep a low profile.”

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady for a third straight meeting, as widely expected. It is likely to be Jerome Powell's final meeting as chair. Statement: www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/p... Full coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04... #EconSky

My latest with @bencasselman.bsky.social The U.S. Started the War. The Rest of the World Is Feeling the Effects. www.nytimes.com/2026/04/27/b...

"Are you going to be the president’s human sock puppet?" That question came early on in Warsh's confirmation hearing Shaking off that perception will be difficult. Nor will it be easy to deliver what Trump wants on rates. www.nytimes.com/2026/04/22/b... @nytimes.com

This both suggests that the NYT‘s model of the VA vote was very well-constructed and also is a great example of model accountability: you can see both the consistency in the modeled outcome and how the actual outcome converges on it.

To me, the most interesting thing in today's Warsh hearing wasn't about Warsh at all. It was about the disagreements within the GOP about A.I.

Just saying, I think you should get credit for “purple first” if you pick the hardest category, even if it’s not technically purple.

Update: www.nytimes.com/2026/04/20/u...

Warsh is set to tell lawmakers on Tuesday that the Fed's independence in setting rates is "essential" but that policy decisions related to bank regulation and "public monies" should not be given the same deference

Tariffs? Inflation? War? For all the turmoil in recent years, nothing has stopped U.S. corporations from earning record profits. There's little reason to think the latest energy shock will be any different. Smart story from @talsmith.bsky.social: www.nytimes.com/2026/04/15/b...

Sounds like things are going well over at the Department of Labor. Incredible reporting from Rebecca Davis O'Brien: www.nytimes.com/2026/04/15/u...

The combination of higher prices and slower wage growth is hitting workers' wallets. Average hourly earnings, adjusted for inflation, are barely up over the past year, especially for rank-and-file workers.

Consumer prices were up 3.3% in March, the fastest inflation rate of Trump's second term. The jump was driven almost entirely by higher energy prices, the direct result of the war with Iran. #NumbersDay

U.S. consumer prices rose 0.9 percent in March, driven by a nearly 11 percent jump in energy costs. Overall prices were up 3.3 percent from a year earlier. "Core" prices, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, were up 0.2 percent month/month, and 2.6 percent year/year. #NumbersDay

Update on the PCE legal services drama from last month: BEA says it went back to using CPI data for the February CPI, after using PPI to adjust the data in January. It also released an FAQ that addresses the decision (though not in much detail): www.bea.gov/help/faq/1486

Inflation was looking like a problem even before the war. On a three-month annualized basis, PCE (both headline and core) topped 4% in February. Year-over-year core PCE is up 3%. And now the war will push prices higher. #NumbersDay More from @colbylsmith.bsky.social: www.nytimes.com/2026/04/09/b...

Thursday morning econ data: Inflation up, income down and consumer spending soft in February (and that's *before* the impact of the war). And GDP was even weaker at the end of last year than previously known. #NumbersDay #EconSky

OK, time for a game! These charts show employment for a selection of detailed industries (4-digit NAICS) vs their prepandemic (2012-2019) trend. Which ones, if any, seem to show the effect of AI? (Chat GPT launch shown for reference.) I'll post a version with industry labels in a bit. #EconSky

Even if the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens (and stays that way), it will take time for the flow of energy to return to normal. Smart story from @rfelliott.bsky.social: www.nytimes.com/2026/04/08/b...

So on the same day that BLS reported the lowest household survey response rate on record, the White House is proposing further budget cuts. Pretty much every economist that I've talked to says that we should be investing more money in the statistical system right now, not less.

One other important note: The president's budget, out today, proposes a $40 million (about 6%) cut in BLS funding, and to make permanent recent staff reductions. It also re-ups a proposal to move the BLS from the Department of Labor to the Department of Commerce. #EconSky www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov...

Couple quick charts re: data reliability. First, revisions: Recent revisions have been consistently downward (although note that January was revised UP). The scale of the revisions isn't unprecedented, but they have been quite large. #EconSky #NumbersDay

Seemingly all of Silicon Valley is convinced that A.I. will bring on the end of work, or at the very least massive job losses. Economists have been skeptical, bordering on dismissive. But lately that has begun to change. Economists are starting to take A.I. seriously. www.nytimes.com/2026/04/03/b...

U.S. employers added 178,000 jobs in March and the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3 percent. #NumbersDay Data: www.bls.gov/news.release... Full coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04...

Job growth has slowed nearly to zero. But unemployment remains low because the labor force isn't growing either. So the labor market is "balanced," but workers feel stuck. Great @lydiadepillis.bsky.social story unpacking the implications of a no-growth labor market. www.nytimes.com/2026/04/03/b...

Snapped on my way out of the building this evening.

Job openings were down in February, but January's total was revised up. On balance, openings have basically stabilized in recent months (or maybe are trending down ever so slightly). #NumbersDay

Deleting my initial JOLTS post because while the numbers were accurate, I don't think it quite got the interpretation right. (Openings basically stable once you look through the monthly noise.)

Powell on Monday reiterates that the Fed typically look through energy shocks, but he warned that "a critical, essential aspect of that is you have to carefully monitor inflation expectations" This recent piece w/ @bencasselman.bsky.social explains why www.nytimes.com/2026/03/27/b... @nytimes.com

Naturally leavened brioche. Pretty proud of this one tbh #breadsky

NEW w/ @bencasselman.bsky.social: The war in Iran is once again testing Americans' faith that the the Fed will eventually get inflation under control, putting fresh pressure on the central bank as it debates whether to cut rates this year www.nytimes.com/2026/03/27/b... @nytimes.com

That’s part of what the story was trying to explore. How can it be that forecasts for most aggregate indicators — GDP, for sure, but also unemployment, consumer spending, etc — suggest such a modest impact, given how painful gas prices will be for so many families?

As widely expected, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, as the spike in oil prices threatens to both push up inflation and slow down growth. Projections still show one cut this year. Statement: www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/p... Coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2026/03...

Paul Krugman weighs in: paulkrugman.substack.com/p/are-the-ec...

This story is generating lots of reaction. Which is good! I think it's an important story. But also a nuanced one. And so a few points I think it's worth making, in a Saturday evening 🧵: #EconSky

Do you work at BEA, BLS or any of the other stats agencies? I'd love to talk to you. You can reach me on Signal at bencasselman.96.

An obscure methodological tweak -- a change in the source of data on the price of legal services -- resulted in meaningfully lower monthly PCE inflation in January. That's prompting questions about why the change was made and why it wasn't disclosed publicly. www.nytimes.com/2026/03/13/b... #EconSky

Worth noting that the big increase in disposable income in January was mostly about a sharp decline in the BEA's estimate of "current personal taxes." Total income rose a healthy but much less spectacular 0.4 percent. #EconSky

Weird mix of econ data this morning. Q4 GDP revised down sharply on a mix of weaker consumption, investment and exports. But income and spending in January looked decent, and inflation wasn't as bad as feared. #EconSky

This report, more than most, feels like a real look back in time, so I'm not going to do a long thread. But a couple quick charts, starting with the headline: Overall inflation was steady in February, although it has picked back up a bit on a three-month basis.

U.S. consumer prices rose 0.3% in February and were up 2.4% from a year earlier. "Core" prices, excluding food and energy, were up 0.2% month/month and 2.5% year/year. But remember that all these numbers are from before the war in Iran sent gas prices soaring. #NumbersDay

This is tomorrow! Join us for what is shaping up to be a great discussion of AI and the labor market. #EconSky

Between the decline in employment in February and the downward revision to December, job growth has now effectively slowed to zero. #numbersday

U.S. payroll employment FELL by 92,000 jobs in February and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4 percent. Data: www.bls.gov/news.release... Live coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2026/03... #NumberDay

I get a lot of questions these days about data from BLS and other agencies. Some of this is about fears of political interference. Some of it is about the reliability of the data, especially in light of recent big revisions. In a story today, I tried to tackle both. www.nytimes.com/2026/03/06/b...

What do we know about AI’s impact on the labor market? On March 10, Peter Orszag, @jedkolko.bsky.social, @marthagimbel.bsky.social, Bharat Chandar, and @bencasselman.bsky.social will dive into the data and what we know: