New: The Trump admin is wielding the possibility that parts of the economy are in a recession in an attempt to raise pressure on the Fed to cut rates. The hope is that the central bank will bear the blame for any downturn www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/u... @nytimes.com

Lisa Cook briefly addresses her ongoing legal battle with the president, who is trying to oust her from the Fed. In her first comments since Trump announced her firing, Cook said she was "grateful" for the support and that she would continue to carry out her sworn duties

Highly recommend @colbylsmith.bsky.social's interview with Steven Miran. She really pushes him to explain his thinking on interest rates, immigration, and other topics. (Whether you find his explanations credible is up to you.) #EconSky www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/u...

Speaking w/ @nytimes.com, Miran defends his dissent for a 50bp cut at this week's Fed meeting, warning that the central bank risks inducing a recession if it does not swiftly lower rates. He expects the Fed to cut again in December and will likely dissent again www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/b...

The shutdown may not leave lasting economic damage, but it's making the Fed's job harder Powell warned the data blackout might be a reason for officials to move cautiously with cuts, upending expectations about December www.nytimes.com/2025/10/30/b... @bencasselman.bsky.social @nytimes.com

Fed cuts rates by 25bps. Two officials dissent: Miran in favor of a 50bp cut and Schmid in favor of standing pat. The Fed will end QT on December 1

The labor market is in focus as the Fed prepares to cut rates for a second-meeting in a row today despite inflation picking back up. But the shutdown has made it hard to know how significantly it is weakening www.nytimes.com/2025/10/28/b... @nytimes.com

The Fed's strategy to cut rates in support of the labor market even as inflation rose was always considered risky. The shutdown has made it all the more treacherous, obscuring officials’ view of the economy as divisions have sharpened www.nytimes.com/2025/10/28/b... @nytimes.com

When the Fed meets this week, its officials will be discussing more than just the outlook for rates. Strains in funding markets have raised the urgency around their debate about QT "Alerts are going off on a very regular basis right now" www.nytimes.com/2025/10/27/b... @nytimes.com

The Fed is making its stress tests more transparent following a lawsuit from the country's biggest banks. The proposal has broad support, but Barr (fmr VC for supervision) says it will make the financial system less safe www.nytimes.com/2025/10/24/b... @stacycowley.bsky.social @nytimes.com

The BLS may not be able to release the next CPI report, which is due in November, because of the shutdown, according to a White House official. That would leave the Fed without a good read on how inflation is evolving ahead of its final meeting of the year in December @tonyromm.bsky.social

The relatively benign CPI report keeps the Fed on track to lower interest rates next week "Core" prices rose less than expected, with the annual rate edging lower to 3%

New w/ @bencasselman.bsky.social: Wealthy Americans, buoyed by a booming stock market, are spending freely. Lower-income households, stung by inflation and a slowing labor market, are pulling back www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b... @nytimes.com

Wealthy Americans Are Spending. People With Less Are Struggling. Via @bencasselman.bsky.social and @colbylsmith.bsky.social and NYT Business: www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b...

"'You generally don’t want your first use of the E.S.F. to be a failure,' [Brad] Setser said, referring to the Exchange Stabilization Fund. 'I do think it would impact the broader credibility of Secretary Bessent’s financial management.'"

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s multibillion-dollar bailout of Argentina, a serial defaulter, raises the specter of losses for U.S. taxpayers "There is always a new crop of investors and traders who think they know better" www.nytimes.com/2025/10/17/u... W/ Alan Rappeport @nytimes.com

Powell says the Fed faces no risk-free path, but he seems willing to take a gamble on inflation. As such, the Fed is poised to keep cutting. But some economists warn there is a real risk inflation gets stuck above 2% if officials do not tread carefully www.nytimes.com/2025/10/15/b... @nytimes.com

"We'll start to miss that data," says Powell about the lapse in government statistics because of the shutdown. It will become "more challenging" the longer the shutdown lasts, especially if it means new data is not being collected

Powell's speech centers mostly on the balance sheet, which has become a key point of criticism from Bessent. But he also makes several points on the outlook, signaling the Fed is on track to keep cutting given downside risks to the labor market www.nytimes.com/2025/10/14/b... @nytimes.com

In an interview with @nytimes.com, John Williams of @newyorkfed.bsky.social backs further cuts given his concerns about the labor market. We also discussed inflation, the shutdown, why Fed independence is important and more thread below/gift link to the transcript: www.nytimes.com/2025/10/09/u...

Minutes from the Fed's September meeting underscore the divisions between policymakers about the path forward for policy. A few officials appeared reluctant to cut last month and a majority see upside risk to inflation. Still, most see scope to cut further this year

Miran on Tuesday explained his shift from opposing rate cuts last year to supporting them this year, saying his view of neutral "has basically just gone from one end of the range to the other." He cites immigration restrictions and expectations of changes to the deficit

Cook may have notched another win in her legal battle with Trump over his attempt to oust her as a Fed governor, but the threat to independence won't fade anytime soon "It’s a time to exhale but not breathe easy," says @petercontibrown.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2025/10/02/b... @nytimes.com

Another victory for Lisa Cook in her lawsuit against Trump, who is trying to remover her as a Fed governor over allegations of mortgage fraud. The Supreme Court rules she can stay on in her role as the case is being litigated

The Fed was already facing a tough decision about how quickly to lower rates this year. But that judgment call is set to get much harder if the shutdown deprives the central bank of essential data that help it gauge the state of the economy www.nytimes.com/2025/10/01/b... @nytimes.com

"You’re throwing money at a country that essentially has exhausted its ability to borrow from the IMF," says CFR's Brad Setser of the US lifeline to Argentina, a serial defaulter www.nytimes.com/2025/09/25/u... @nytimes.com

NYT: “Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said this week that if New York City needed a federal bailout” under .. Mamdani, .. “Drop dead”. “.. But Argentina is a different story.” @colbylsmith.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2025/09/25/u...

"People don't feel the need to move urgently, and part of that is because they're still very scared of tariff inflation, Miran says of his Fed colleagues. He calls for rates to be quickly lowered by 150-200bps even as he expects ~3% growth in 2026

During this Q&A, Powell is emphasizing the risks posed to the labor market. He suggests it is no longer accurate to describe the labor market as "solid" and that we are in a "low fire, low hire" environment

In a speech on Tuesday, Powell underscores the "challenging situation" the Fed finds itself in as its officials debate how quickly to lower interest rates without stoking inflation or worsening a weakening labor market www.nytimes.com/2025/09/23/b... @nytimes.com

"I'm not panicky," said Miran during the Q&A. Rather he said the risks grow the longer interest rates stay too restrictive

In his first speech as a member of the Board of Governors, Stephen Miran said interest rates should be roughly 2 percentage points below current levels, or around 2.5 percent nytimes.com/2025/09/22/b... @nytimes.com

The latest dot plot underscored the tough bind the Fed finds itself in, with inflation moving away from target, the labor market wobbly and politics in play. Officials can’t address both economic risks, and resolving one typically jeopardizes the other www.nytimes.com/2025/09/18/b... @nytimes.com

The Fed's meeting today is a pivotal one, not least for all of the unusual dynamics leading up to it involving Miran and Cook's attendance. The focus will be on the dot plot and whether this cut is the first in a series this year www.nytimes.com/2025/09/17/b... @nytimes.com

Fed officials are gathering today for a meeting unlike any other. It’s the first day on the job for Miran, who will vote despite missing all the briefings. Cook, meanwhile, has spent weeks defending her right to participate after taking Trump to court www.nytimes.com/2025/09/16/b... @nytimes.com

NEW: The appeals court sides with Lisa Cook, the Fed governor at the heart of Trump's attacks on the central bank, confirming that she will attend this week's meeting and vote on interest rates.

Inside the Fed, there is a preoccupation with doing whatever possible to avoid provoking Trump, which at times has meant complying with his wishes. That cautious approach is drawing scrutiny as its independence comes under threat www.nytimes.com/2025/09/15/b... @nytimes.com @bencasselman.bsky.social

Days before the Fed's rate decision, the central bank isn’t even sure who will attend the meeting. Gov Cook's fate is now in doubt pending a court ruling. And Trump's pick for a separate vacancy will face a confirmation vote as early as Monday www.nytimes.com/2025/09/12/b... @nytimes.com

NEW: The Trump administration has asked a federal appeals court to allow it to move ahead with firing Lisa Cook from the Fed's board, in an attempt to stop her from taking part in the central bank’s meeting on interest rates next week

Inflation pushes up to a 2.9% annual rate, the highest of Trump's second term, according to figures released by Trump's Bureau of Labor Statistics, whose previous director he fired after a job report that angered him. @colbylsmith.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2025/09/11/b...

US inflation accelerated in August at a speed that is likely to keep the Fed cautious about lowering borrowing costs too quickly once it restarts cuts as soon as next week. Monthly CPI rose 0.4% and is up 2.9% YoY. Core prices rose 0.3% or 3.1% annually

As expected the Trump administration has appealed last night's ruling that allowed Lisa Cook to stay on as a Fed governor until her legal battle with the president is resolved www.nytimes.com/2025/09/10/u... @tonyromm.bsky.social @nytimes.com

Republicans are racing to get Trump's Fed pick confirmed before next week's policy meeting despite mounting concerns over his plans to take a temporary leave of absence from his job as one of the president's top economic advisers www.nytimes.com/2025/09/10/b... @nytimes.com @tonyromm.bsky.social

Cook's lawyer says that today's ruling thwarting the president's attempt to fire a sitting governor on the central bank "recognizes and reaffirms the importance of safeguarding the independence of the Federal Reserve from illegal political interference."

What is notable about the judge's ruling is that is decisive about what is and is not cause as it relates to the Fed. It involves behavior in office and whether an official is executing their statutory duties. It does not involve conduct occurring before their time in office

NEW: The court rules that Lisa Cook can stay on as a governor as her case against Trump trying to fire her is being litigated. The judge says that "for cause" applies to behavior while in office and that Cook's right to due process was violated

The latest jobs report will resolve some of the divisions that Fed officials have had to wrestle with over the timing of the first rate cut after a long pause. But it is likely to prompt discussions over the pace beyond that point and raises the odds that they move at consecutive meetings

Miran's plan to temporarily leave his position as a top economic adviser at the White House while serving on the Fed's board of governors drew backlash on Thursday while raising questions about his willingness to uphold the institution's independence www.nytimes.com/2025/09/04/b... @nytimes.com

Miran was pressed about whether he would depart his position as CEA once he assumed his role at the Fed. Citing advice of counsel, he said he would just be taking a leave of absence because the term he was nominated to fill to set to end in January. Sen Jack Reed responds: "That's ridiculous."

The first question goes to Miran and relates to his commitment to the Fed's independence. He said he was selected because the president liked his policy views, but that he would make all decisions related to interest rates, if confirmed, based on the economic data and his own personal analysis