Waller, a Fed governor who dissented against January's rate cut pause, said he is open to holding rates steady in March if the labor market continues to stabilize. He also doesn't expect the Supreme Court ruling to impact his rate outlook www.nytimes.com/2026/02/23/b... @nytimes.com

NEW w/ @bencasselman.bsky.social: Can an A.I.-driven productivity boom give the Fed space to cut rates? That's the argument that Kevin Warsh, Trump's pick to lead the central bank is making But getting his soon-to-be colleagues on board will not be easy www.nytimes.com/2026/02/20/b... @nytimes.com

Minutes from January's Fed meeting confirmed that officials are in no hurry to restart rate cuts. But according to the discussion, several officials raised the possibility of rate hikes if inflation stayed stubbornly high www.nytimes.com/2026/02/18/b... @nytimes.com

Inflation eased to 2.4% in January from the same time last year, down from the previous 2.7% annual pace and down from 3.0% when Trump took office. @colbylsmith.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2026/02/13/b...

January inflation usually comes in hot, averaging 0.03 percentage points higher than other months in a given year since 1985 according to research from the Boston Fed But this time, it defied expectations, coming in cooler than forecasted www.nytimes.com/2026/02/13/b... @nytimes.com

"The window to see a material weakening in the labor market is probably closing," says Stephen Juneau at Bank of America. "It seems like we have more momentum building in the economy rather than the reverse of that." www.nytimes.com/2026/02/11/b... @nytimes.com

January's jobs report, which showed stronger than expected monthly growth plus the unemployment rate ticking down gives the Fed cover to hold rates steady at its March meeting. Officials will get one more jobs report before then, however. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/11/b... @nytimes.com

NEW: Stephen Miran, who joined the Fed in September, has resigned from his role as CEA chair per a letter seen by @nytimes.com Miran initially took only a temporary leave of absence from his position as one of Trump's top economic advisers nytimes.com/2026/02/03/b... @tonyromm.bsky.social

For Kevin Hassett, his loyalty to Trump was seen as his most valuable asset once auditions began to become the next Fed chair. But that proximity ultimately morphed into his biggest liability, leaving him to lose out on the top job. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/31/b... @nytimes.com @tonyromm.bsky.social

After winning a contentious election for chair of Stanford's student senate, Warsh told the college paper that he "will not be manipulated by political parties." 35 years later, the onus is again on Warsh to prove that independence www.nytimes.com/2026/01/31/b... @nytimes.com w/ Sydney Ember

Warsh's supporters expect him to handle any political pressure well. Druckenmiller, who described him as a "Swiss Army knife," said he had "been through the gauntlet" and had the markets experience crucial for the job. He also had some thoughts about QT www.nytimes.com/2026/01/30/b... @nytimes.com

"Quite the tap dance," is how one fmr Fed president who worked alongside Warsh when he was a governor described what the next chair will be up against amid Trump's calls for lower rates. "It's going to be Fred Astaire as central bank chair." www.nytimes.com/2026/01/30/b... @nytimes.com

Trump makes it official this morning. Warsh for Fed chair. "On top of everything else, he is 'central casting,' and he will never let you down," the president writes on social media www.nytimes.com/2026/01/30/u...

Trump is expected to announce Kevin Warsh as Fed chair tomorrow, ending an extensive, highly publicized audition process for one of the president's most consequential appointments. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/29/b... @tylerpager.bsky.social @nytimes.com

NEW: For a judicial body often fraught with division over Trump’s claims to executive power, the Supreme Court on Wednesday found moments of unity in questioning the economic costs of the president’s efforts to meddle with the Fed www.nytimes.com/2026/01/21/u... @nytimes.com @tonyromm.bsky.social

After two hours of lively arguments, the Supreme Court seemed likely to rule narrowly and provisionally in favor of Lisa Cook, the Fed governor whom Trump has sought to fire based on an accusation of mortgage fraud Takeaways w/ @adamliptak.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2026/01/21/u... @nytimes.com

The big question now confronting Powell is whether he should stay on as a governor after his term as chair ends in May. "If he thinks that his resignation as governor will endanger the institution and its independence, he’d be tempted to stay on," says fmr Fed vice chair Don Kohn

NEW: Powell had a list of lawmakers who he thought would have his back after finally taking on Trump His belief that he would find a groundswell of support was not an idle thought, but the product of years of relationship-building on Capitol Hill. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/16/u... @nytimes.com

At a healthcare event on Friday, Trump points out Hassett (a frontrunner to replace Powell as chair) and praises his work on TV, saying: "I actually want to keep you where you are, if you want to know the truth...I would lose you. It's a serious concern to me"

Kashkari is a voting member on this year's FOMC. He does not see "any impetus to cut in January," reinforcing expectations that the central bank will hold rates steady when they meet at the end of the month

“The escalation over the course of the past year is really about monetary policy,” Minneapolis Fed president Kashkari tells @nytimes.com of the Trump administration’s threats against the central bank www.nytimes.com/2026/01/14/u...

"The drama is all Powell," Jeanine Pirro tells @nytimes.com "If Mr. Powell had responded to our emails this could have been handled very easily" www.nytimes.com/2026/01/13/u...

Pirro did not discuss the Powell case with Trump or share any info with her bosses. Before the subpoenas landed, the Fed had received two emails from Carlton Davis, special counsel, on Dec 19 and Dec 29. Neither mentioned the threat of a criminal investigation nor a deadline for a response

NEW: The federal investigation into Fed chair Powell has sparked intense blowback, threatening to undermine Trump's effort to assert more dominance over the central bank www.nytimes.com/2026/01/13/u... @nytimes.com

Williams tells reporters after his event that he did not think there was "strong pressure one way or another to do anything" in terms of monetary policy actions and that he would be approaching rate decisions "business as usual" www.nytimes.com/2026/01/12/b...

Williams defends Powell in a Q&A after his speech on Monday. Said the Fed chair is "completely dedicated" to the institution and is a man of "impeccable integrity." He also warned about the costs of the Fed's independence being jeopardized, leading to "unfortunate outcomes"

In a speech on Monday, John Williams of @newyorkfed.bsky.social conveys little urgency for immediate rate cuts, reinforcing expectations that the central bank will hold rates steady at the end of month despite the likely pushback from Trump

Our explainer on what's behind the Justice Dept's investigation into Fed chair Powell and how far the administration could push it www.nytimes.com/2026/01/12/u... @nytimes.com

Janet Yellen tells @nytimes.com that the investigation against Powell is the most significant attack ever on Fed independence. "If you can bring charges for no reason whatsoever against your enemies, we're no longer living in a society governed by the rule of law." www.nytimes.com/2026/01/12/b...

".. He didn’t mince words,” said Kenneth Rogoff .. “He’s tended to turn the other cheek, and he’s reached a moment where he can’t.” @nytimes.com @colbylsmith.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2026/01/12/b...

NEW: Powell's decision to respond by video to the criminal investigation reflected the explosive nature of the DOJ's move. He worked through the weekend with advisers, culminating in him accusing the admin of trying to coerce the Fed into cutting rates www.nytimes.com/2026/01/12/b... @nytimes.com

Former Fed chairs and Treasury secretaries put out a statement on Monday defending Powell after the Justice Department opened up a criminal investigation of the chair, likening the move to what happens in emerging markets jointstatement.substack.com/p/statement-...

Another Trump political adversary, another criminal investigation. Jay Powell, who angered Trump by defying pressure over interest rates, now faces prosecution by Trump's handpicked prosecutor. @glennthrush.bsky.social @colbylsmith.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2026/01/11/u...

"I don’t know anything about it," Trump tells @NBCNews about the Justice Department's investigation into Fed chair Powell. Added that it had nothing to do with interest rates. "I wouldn’t even think of doing it that way." www.nbcnews.com/politics/don...

In a video on Sunday, Powell defends himself and questions the investigation's motives: "The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President."

NEW: Federal prosecutors have opened up a criminal investigation into Fed chair Powell over the central bank’s renovation of its Washington headquarters and whether Powell lied to Congress about the scope of the project www.nytimes.com/2026/01/11/u... @nytimes.com

The drop in the unemployment rate will help to alleviate fears at the Fed that the labor market is on the cusp of cracking, although there are clear signs in December's report that hiring has slowed. This bolsters the central bank's stance that it can proceed carefully with rate cuts this year

NEW: Trump tells @nytimes.com that he has made up his mind on his selection for Fed chair, but stopped short of disclosing his pick. When asked about Hassett, he said: "I don’t want to say," but described him as "certainly one of the people that I like" www.nytimes.com/2026/01/08/u...

Fed independence faces two major tests early on in 2026. The first stems from Trump's pick to replace Powell as chair. The second relates to Cook's case against the president over her attempted ouster. On Jan 21, SCOTUS will hear oral arguments www.nytimes.com/2026/01/07/b... @nytimes.com

Minutes from the Fed's December meeting indicate that most officials support further rate cuts. But deep divisions inside the central bank have raised questions about the timing and magnitude of those moves www.nytimes.com/2025/12/30/b... @nytimes.com

NEW: Will AI lead to mass layoffs? Policymakers are grappling w/ that question as the admin embraces the industry Lisa Cook of the Fed tells @nytimes.com that she sees “pluses and minuses” for the labor market and that it could help inflation www.nytimes.com/2025/12/24/u... @tonyromm.bsky.social

"Anybody that disagrees with me will never be the Fed Chairman!" Trump says in a new post on social media. The president said that the wants the next chair to lower interest rates if markets are doing well, rather than raise them to "kill Rallies"

NEW w/ @bencasselman.bsky.social: After a volatile year, the economy has once again proved more resilient than expected. But that doesn't mean that Americans are feeling good. Unemployment has ticked up and cost-of-living concerns are ever present www.nytimes.com/2025/12/22/b... @nytimes.com

November's CPI report "should not be taken literally or guide monetary policy," says Jonathan Hill, head of U.S. inflation strategy at Barclays www.nytimes.com/live/2025/12... @nytimes.com

Inflation unexpectedly eased in November, but Powell already warned to view this data with a "skeptical eye," because of distortions caused by the gov't shutdown www.nytimes.com/live/2025/12... @nytimes.com

NEW: Trump's decision on the next Fed chair comes down to who he believes will be more successful in delivering substantially lower rates. That prerequisite creates a credibility problem for whoever is selected, one that will be difficult to escape. www.nytimes.com/2025/12/17/u... @nytimes.com

NEW: Trump is in the final stages of selecting his pick to replace Powell. On Wednesday, he will meet with Chris Waller, a Fed governor who was one of the first policymakers this year to advocate for lower rates

Powell warned last week that the incoming data should be viewed with a "skeptical eye" because of technical distortions tied to the gov't shutdown. But the rise in the unemployment rate to 4.6% is going to catch the Fed's attention. www.nytimes.com/2025/12/16/b... @nytimes.com

Trump’s next Fed chair received a “warning shot” on Wednesday following a very divisive rate cut: Much lower borrowing costs could be hard to deliver www.nytimes.com/2025/12/11/b... @nytimes.com

Fed cuts rates. 3 dissents (Miran for 50bps, Goolsbee/Schmid for no cut). 4 other officials registered soft dissents by submitting a forecast for rates to have ended the year higher than the actual level after today's move. Most expect 1 cut next year, although 7 forecast none