NEW: Will AI lead to mass layoffs? Policymakers are grappling w/ that question as the admin embraces the industry Lisa Cook of the Fed tells @nytimes.com that she sees “pluses and minuses” for the labor market and that it could help inflation www.nytimes.com/2025/12/24/u... @tonyromm.bsky.social

"Anybody that disagrees with me will never be the Fed Chairman!" Trump says in a new post on social media. The president said that the wants the next chair to lower interest rates if markets are doing well, rather than raise them to "kill Rallies"

NEW w/ @bencasselman.bsky.social: After a volatile year, the economy has once again proved more resilient than expected. But that doesn't mean that Americans are feeling good. Unemployment has ticked up and cost-of-living concerns are ever present www.nytimes.com/2025/12/22/b... @nytimes.com

November's CPI report "should not be taken literally or guide monetary policy," says Jonathan Hill, head of U.S. inflation strategy at Barclays www.nytimes.com/live/2025/12... @nytimes.com

Inflation unexpectedly eased in November, but Powell already warned to view this data with a "skeptical eye," because of distortions caused by the gov't shutdown www.nytimes.com/live/2025/12... @nytimes.com

NEW: Trump's decision on the next Fed chair comes down to who he believes will be more successful in delivering substantially lower rates. That prerequisite creates a credibility problem for whoever is selected, one that will be difficult to escape. www.nytimes.com/2025/12/17/u... @nytimes.com

NEW: Trump is in the final stages of selecting his pick to replace Powell. On Wednesday, he will meet with Chris Waller, a Fed governor who was one of the first policymakers this year to advocate for lower rates

Powell warned last week that the incoming data should be viewed with a "skeptical eye" because of technical distortions tied to the gov't shutdown. But the rise in the unemployment rate to 4.6% is going to catch the Fed's attention. www.nytimes.com/2025/12/16/b... @nytimes.com

Trump’s next Fed chair received a “warning shot” on Wednesday following a very divisive rate cut: Much lower borrowing costs could be hard to deliver www.nytimes.com/2025/12/11/b... @nytimes.com

Fed cuts rates. 3 dissents (Miran for 50bps, Goolsbee/Schmid for no cut). 4 other officials registered soft dissents by submitting a forecast for rates to have ended the year higher than the actual level after today's move. Most expect 1 cut next year, although 7 forecast none

As the Fed prepares to cut, signs of division will be everywhere. From official dissents on the vote to "soft" dissents (officials writing down higher rate forecasts for '25 than where we end the year), the message will be that this was a close call www.nytimes.com/2025/12/10/b... @nytimes.com

Today's #JOLTS report gives our first official look at the labor market in October. Short version: Not that different from August, but some signs of further weakening. #NumbersDay Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...

As the Fed meeting kicks off, Powell is grappling with intense internal divisions about the economic outlook and the policy path forward. A cut tomorrow will no doubt generate dissent, but standing pat would have prompted even more pushback www.nytimes.com/2025/12/08/b... @nytimes.com

NEW: As the Fed prepares to cut rates this week, Powell faces pressure from multiple fronts A rift has opened up inside the central bank about the economic outlook. The chair also faces attacks from the president and contenders seeking to replace him www.nytimes.com/2025/12/08/b... @nytimes.com

At the Dealbook conference, Bessent declines to confirm that the Fed chair job is going to Hassett. But he does stress the limits of the role with regards to rate cuts saying the person has "one vote"

NEW: The stakes for the next Fed chair are high, but they are also high for the person running the search process. Trump wants lower rates and has made clear that Bessent’s fortunes are tied to what happens under new leadership www.nytimes.com/2025/12/03/u...

Proponents of a December cut gained a powerful backer on Friday, with John Williams of the NY Fed and a close ally of Powell saying there is scope for interest rates to be lowered in the "near term" www.nytimes.com/2025/11/21/b... @nytimes.com

This jobs report complicates things for the Fed. If you're an official who didn't want to cut in December, you can point to stronger than expected monthly payrolls growth. But if you're an official who wants to cut, the slight tick-up in the unemployment rate helps that case

Minutes from October's Fed meeting underscore just how divided policymakers are about a December cut Many did not think a cut then is appropriate, and some who voted in favor of the October move said they also could have supported standing pat www.nytimes.com/2025/11/19/b... @nytimes.com

The Fed has published the memo in full, along with a statement from Bowman: "Our supervisory approach is not about narrowing our focus — it is about sharpening it," she said. "This is not about what we are leaving behind — it is about building a more effective supervisory framework"

The top concern we heard about the Fed's embrace of lighter-touch bank oversight is that it could lead to more blindspots that may mean a bigger crisis "People don’t know what problems were stopped before they had a chance to hurt them," said Peggy Twohig, who led the CFPB's supervision dept

NEW: Top supervisors at the Fed's 12 reserve banks and senior staff in Washington received a memo on Oct 29 with directives fundamentally changing how the central bank oversees banks It is part of a sweeping overhaul led by Bowman 🎁🔗 www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/b... @nytimes.com

Days before the July 29-30 meeting, Kugler asked Powell for a waiver so that she could trade during the blackout period in order to get rid of impermissible holdings. That request was denied. Ms. Kugler did not attend the meeting and on Aug 1 she resigned

NEW: Adriana Kugler, who abruptly left the Fed, repeatedly violated the central bank’s trading rules. New disclosures show trades in individual stocks, like Apple, Southwest Airlines and Cava, many of which took place during the blackout period ahead of policy votes www.nytimes.com/2025/11/15/b...

As Consumer Bureau’s Cash Dwindles, Trump Administration Declares Its Funding Illegal www.nytimes.com/2025/11/12/b... @stacycowley.bsky.social @nytimes.com

Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic will step down from his position in February, creating yet another vacancy at the top ranks of the central bank. Regional presidents are selected by their local boards, but the Fed's board in DC has veto power

The Fed's recent rate decisions have been divisive. It's likely to get worse. In one camp are officials like Hammack (Cleveland), who told @nytimes.com she preferred not to cut last month and suggested a December one was not needed. Others are more worried about the labor market

New: The Trump admin is wielding the possibility that parts of the economy are in a recession in an attempt to raise pressure on the Fed to cut rates. The hope is that the central bank will bear the blame for any downturn www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/u... @nytimes.com

Lisa Cook briefly addresses her ongoing legal battle with the president, who is trying to oust her from the Fed. In her first comments since Trump announced her firing, Cook said she was "grateful" for the support and that she would continue to carry out her sworn duties

Highly recommend @colbylsmith.bsky.social's interview with Steven Miran. She really pushes him to explain his thinking on interest rates, immigration, and other topics. (Whether you find his explanations credible is up to you.) #EconSky www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/u...

Speaking w/ @nytimes.com, Miran defends his dissent for a 50bp cut at this week's Fed meeting, warning that the central bank risks inducing a recession if it does not swiftly lower rates. He expects the Fed to cut again in December and will likely dissent again www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/b...

The shutdown may not leave lasting economic damage, but it's making the Fed's job harder Powell warned the data blackout might be a reason for officials to move cautiously with cuts, upending expectations about December www.nytimes.com/2025/10/30/b... @bencasselman.bsky.social @nytimes.com

Fed cuts rates by 25bps. Two officials dissent: Miran in favor of a 50bp cut and Schmid in favor of standing pat. The Fed will end QT on December 1

The labor market is in focus as the Fed prepares to cut rates for a second-meeting in a row today despite inflation picking back up. But the shutdown has made it hard to know how significantly it is weakening www.nytimes.com/2025/10/28/b... @nytimes.com

The Fed's strategy to cut rates in support of the labor market even as inflation rose was always considered risky. The shutdown has made it all the more treacherous, obscuring officials’ view of the economy as divisions have sharpened www.nytimes.com/2025/10/28/b... @nytimes.com

When the Fed meets this week, its officials will be discussing more than just the outlook for rates. Strains in funding markets have raised the urgency around their debate about QT "Alerts are going off on a very regular basis right now" www.nytimes.com/2025/10/27/b... @nytimes.com

The Fed is making its stress tests more transparent following a lawsuit from the country's biggest banks. The proposal has broad support, but Barr (fmr VC for supervision) says it will make the financial system less safe www.nytimes.com/2025/10/24/b... @stacycowley.bsky.social @nytimes.com

The BLS may not be able to release the next CPI report, which is due in November, because of the shutdown, according to a White House official. That would leave the Fed without a good read on how inflation is evolving ahead of its final meeting of the year in December @tonyromm.bsky.social

The relatively benign CPI report keeps the Fed on track to lower interest rates next week "Core" prices rose less than expected, with the annual rate edging lower to 3%

New w/ @bencasselman.bsky.social: Wealthy Americans, buoyed by a booming stock market, are spending freely. Lower-income households, stung by inflation and a slowing labor market, are pulling back www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b... @nytimes.com

Wealthy Americans Are Spending. People With Less Are Struggling. Via @bencasselman.bsky.social and @colbylsmith.bsky.social and NYT Business: www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b...

"'You generally don’t want your first use of the E.S.F. to be a failure,' [Brad] Setser said, referring to the Exchange Stabilization Fund. 'I do think it would impact the broader credibility of Secretary Bessent’s financial management.'"

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s multibillion-dollar bailout of Argentina, a serial defaulter, raises the specter of losses for U.S. taxpayers "There is always a new crop of investors and traders who think they know better" www.nytimes.com/2025/10/17/u... W/ Alan Rappeport @nytimes.com

Powell says the Fed faces no risk-free path, but he seems willing to take a gamble on inflation. As such, the Fed is poised to keep cutting. But some economists warn there is a real risk inflation gets stuck above 2% if officials do not tread carefully www.nytimes.com/2025/10/15/b... @nytimes.com

"We'll start to miss that data," says Powell about the lapse in government statistics because of the shutdown. It will become "more challenging" the longer the shutdown lasts, especially if it means new data is not being collected

Powell's speech centers mostly on the balance sheet, which has become a key point of criticism from Bessent. But he also makes several points on the outlook, signaling the Fed is on track to keep cutting given downside risks to the labor market www.nytimes.com/2025/10/14/b... @nytimes.com

In an interview with @nytimes.com, John Williams of @newyorkfed.bsky.social backs further cuts given his concerns about the labor market. We also discussed inflation, the shutdown, why Fed independence is important and more thread below/gift link to the transcript: www.nytimes.com/2025/10/09/u...

Minutes from the Fed's September meeting underscore the divisions between policymakers about the path forward for policy. A few officials appeared reluctant to cut last month and a majority see upside risk to inflation. Still, most see scope to cut further this year

Miran on Tuesday explained his shift from opposing rate cuts last year to supporting them this year, saying his view of neutral "has basically just gone from one end of the range to the other." He cites immigration restrictions and expectations of changes to the deficit

Cook may have notched another win in her legal battle with Trump over his attempt to oust her as a Fed governor, but the threat to independence won't fade anytime soon "It’s a time to exhale but not breathe easy," says @petercontibrown.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2025/10/02/b... @nytimes.com