Early last year, a study came out in Nature that forecasted climate change would cause truly shocking economic damages at the end of the century if left unabated. Today, the journal retracted it. I explain why and what it means: www.nytimes.com/2025/12/03/b...

Did some videosplaining of the jobs situation that we learned about yesterday: www.nytimes.com/video/busine...

Our final pass on today's jobs report, the first since early September and the last until mid-December. In a twist, job growth is healthy but unemployment is rising: www.nytimes.com/live/2025/bu...

Since the pandemic, private equity firms have been aggressively rolling up home remodeling and roofing companies. A couple of weeks ago, one of the largest platforms abruptly collapsed. I found out what happened, and explain what it means: www.nytimes.com/2025/11/13/b...

Today from me: Come for the cat picture, stay for the exploration of how specialty grocery stores serving immigrant diasporas are seeing the most concentrated impact from super-high tariffs on places like Myanmar and Bangladesh. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/11/b...

For an effective tariff rate that's now at about 9%, pass through to consumer prices has been somewhat muted. But if you listen to earnings calls, that's a mirage: Businesses are saying they'll have to keep raising prices to make up for the new costs. www.nytimes.com/2025/10/24/b...

Usually government shutdowns just displace economic activity. This one could be different: It's broader than some we've seen in the past, it could be longer, and it's hitting at the worst time of year for many farms and small businesses. From me today: www.nytimes.com/2025/10/21/b...

Here is our full story that Vance is dismissing, with primary source documents showing Trump cabinet members with multiple primary-residence mortgages www.propublica.org/article/trum... www.documentcloud.org/documents/26...

Today from me: The unemployment rate for Black workers has leapt upward in recent months, while staying level for other demographic groups. There are some pretty strong indications of what's going on. www.nytimes.com/2025/10/12/b...

Today from me: Everybody knew H-1B visas had problems. There were lots of ideas out there for how to fix it, and maximize the program's economic impact. A $100,000 fee wasn't one of them. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/29/b...

The equation of A.I. usage with "progress" seems like a big embedded assumption here

Today with @haleaziz.bsky.social : Most of the Korean workers detained during an ICE raid on a Ga. battery plant last week were on short-term businesses visas. In at least one case, ICE acknowledged a worker hadn't violated his visa, and forced him to deport anyway. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/12/b...

In the annual poverty & income numbers for 2024, the numbers appeared calm on the surface but reveal some interesting divergences and convergences underneath: www.nytimes.com/2025/09/09/b...

Pitched in on our coverage of the giant ICE raid on an EV battery plant in Georgia, where the Trump administration's immigration enforcement agenda is coming into conflict with its U.S. manufacturing ambitions. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/06/u...

Here's our final cut on this morning's sputtering jobs report, which shows employment not even growing fast enough to soak up the shrinking number of people entering the labor force: www.nytimes.com/2025/09/05/b...

Happy jobs day. As a special treat, I also have a story from Miami about the strange equilibrium we're in: As the Trump administration gradually starts reversing the flow of immigration, the unemployment rate has remained steady even as job growth slows. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/05/b...

From me today: Squinting at GDP numbers, it's become clear that A.I. is propping up the economy -- not through productivity growth, but simply the sheer amount of money going into physical infrastructure needed to support all the computing power it gobbles up. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/27/b...

Joining @thebrianlehrershow.bsky.social shortly to talk trade and economy and stuff. Hop on that @wnyc.org channel

Labor market and inflation data have taken a turn for the worse over the past few weeks. But this economy has taken a bunch of hits in recent years and kept on ticking, so economists aren't doomcasting yet. Here's my effort to put it all together: www.nytimes.com/2025/08/19/b...

One more from my stint in South Korea: At last count, some 7 million people studied abroad. As Trump pushes away international students, it appears that fewer of them will come to American schools. But Southeast Asia is aggressively taking up the slack. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/14/b...

With @bencasselman.bsky.social and Alan Rappeport, a bit more on President Trump's pick to lead the BLS, Dr. E.J. Antoni III. The nomination has elicited strong concerns about the integrity of data that policymakers, investors, and journalists all depend on. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/12/b...

I dug into the transshipment provision of the big reciprocal tariffs now in effect. Trade lawyers suspected that something bigger was in the works: A new plan for charging higher rates on all third-country parts & materials. Turns out they were right -- www.nytimes.com/2025/08/08/b...

What's the deal with all these energy purchase commitments in Trump's trade deals? Why the U.S. is overselling and our trade partners are overbuying, with the actual expert @rfelliott.bsky.social : www.nytimes.com/2025/07/31/b...

South Korea tried hard for a tariff rate lower than its chief rivals, Japan and the E.U. It failed, despite hundreds of billions of dollars in commitments for new energy purchases and investments. Details remain hazy on what market access it gave up. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/30/b...

I detoured from my 🇰🇷 detail to check out a 👀 situation in 🇳🇵: E.V.s are taking over the auto market. It shows what can happen when a country pulls out all the stops to leverage its energy assets and fight pollution. With a little help from 🇨🇳. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/28/b...

From me today: Countries threatened by Trump's tariff letters are still trying to talk him down. But over the medium to longer term, they're looking for ways to deal less with the U.S. altogether. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/13/b...

Many of the 14 nations that received tariff letters from President Trump yesterday had tried for months to find something that would satisfy the White House. Ultimately, none of it worked. And now it begins again. Our story from across Asia: www.nytimes.com/2025/07/08/b...

Meanwhile! I'm in Seoul for the next month, sitting in for the eminent @daiwaka.bsky.social. Here's a story about the South Korean stock market, which is blowing everybody's socks off right now: www.nytimes.com/2025/07/03/b...

For the few years I've been covering jobs reports, and one sector typically rises above the rest, quietly hiring by the thousands: Health care. How taking care of humans became the biggest employer in America, and what it means for the rest of us: www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

Also today, I take a look at the melding of labor unions and immigrant organizing that made Los Angeles the place where protests against Trump's deportation agenda were almost certain to take off first. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/11/b...

Tickled to team up today with @christinezhang.bsky.social for this exploration of how tariff revenue is shaping up and whether it could really fill the fiscal hole the Big GOP Spending/Tax/Etc. Bill would create: www.nytimes.com/2025/06/11/b... (Spoiler: Probably not. Among other problems.)

One of DOGE's casualties was most of the small team that cares for the nation's sprawling art collection. Now, a Trump friend wants to loan out the works to museums and governments around the world. Me today with the great Robin Pogrebin and Graham Bowley: www.nytimes.com/2025/06/08/a...

Reupping for the morning crowd:

Today from me and @londonoe.bsky.social: The White House is stepping up workplace immigration enforcement, and there's some stuff you should understand. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/07/u...

A pleasure to work with Eileen Sullivan on this story about the widening impact of federal job cuts, which have cascaded into the private sector as contracts are yanked. Entire fields are contracting dramatically, leaving many with nowhere to go. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/06/u...

Today with Madeleine Ngo: The GOP tax bill, and other Trump administration actions, make a show of targeting illegal immigrants. But mostly what they do is cut *legally admitted* immigrants off federal benefits, as well as their *U.S. citizen* family members. www.nytimes.com/2025/05/27/u...

Incredible work from Upshot worthies

Today from me: Under Kelly Loeffler, the Small Business Administration is cutting staff, tightening lending standards, terminating programs for women and veterans, and barring loan applications from companies that have even one drop of non-American investment. www.nytimes.com/2025/05/23/b...

Today from me: President Trump is doing everything he can to raise carbon emissions. But his economic policy may end up curtailing them, at least temporarily, for reasons that no climate economist would celebrate. www.nytimes.com/2025/04/29/b...

Great job alert: Being my editor! Awesome super-nerds only please. job-boards.greenhouse.io/thenewyorkti...

friends don't let friends cite the Atlanta Fed GDP forecasting model when confronting the president with how his acts of economic self-sabotage are likely to affect growth:

Quite a day (and late night). It started with an accidental memo that tore up the Trump admin’s case against congestion pricing. By morning, the DOT was accusing its own lawyers of sabotage, and by afternoon, those lawyers were out. The case is just warming up www.nytimes.com/2025/04/24/n...

Astonished as always by reporting from Keith Bradsher and others on the extent of automation in Chinese factories. They're just light years ahead. www.nytimes.com/2025/04/23/b...

Wow -- clean energy investment is already falling in the face of policy uncertainty, lingering high interest rates, and now tariffs. www.cleaninvestmentmonitor.org/reports/us-c...

It's nearly three weeks after Liberation Day, and although there's no guarantee any tariff will stick around longer than a few hours, business leaders are still figuring out ways to deal with the new reality. Today from me: www.nytimes.com/2025/04/20/b...

NEW: Entire scientific fields have been wiped out by the nearly 800 grants cancelled at NIH, finds a @nature.com analysis of the unprecedented cuts. About half of all 2024 NIH projects related to LGBT+ health or vaccine hesitancy — gone. See the other topics and US states hardest hit here:

Trump administration officials are recommending the elimination of the scientific research division at the NOAA, according to internal documents and people with knowledge of the situation.

There are a handful of apparel brands that proudly cut and sew their clothing in America. Even they're not cheering the wild, on-again-off-again tariffs coming out of the White House. I took a field trip to the garment district to learn why: www.nytimes.com/2025/04/10/b...

This sums up the internal inconsistency of the whole tariff gambit. Parts of the White House want it to be either a negotiating ploy, a revenue generator, or an industrial policy, and it simply cannot do all those things at once

Today from me: It was an epically rotten week for public markets. But small businesses are showing signs of weakness too -- battered by cuts to federal agencies, weakened contracting set-asides, and now tariffs. www.nytimes.com/2025/04/06/b...