New frontiers in fiscal stimulus

off season is here... we're so back

@skandaamarnath.bsky.social and I have a piece out about Stephen Miran, who is being considered for the Fed Board, and some of his concerning views around debt default, dollar policy, and fed independence. Some was covered at the hearing, but there's more... www.employamerica.org/monetary-pol...

o7 to the real deep state

hey it's me

TYFYATTM

Hard to concentrate on jobs day when two stilt sandpipers were spotted in renton

Hotel wifi is a bit spotty so jobsposting may be slow today for me Soft report (I wouldn't say disastrous) but things going in the wrong direction Starting to see construction employment falling #NumbersDay

Miran arguing that you can't criticize his revolving door movement b.t. White House and Fed b/c his fed proposals are a package proposal, can't view that in isolation Not a view he held when he made similar criticisms of brainard and goolsbee long before his fed reform paper

"Roth said ... the government isn’t arguing that the “for cause” protection is invalid. But he said that deciding what qualifies as cause to be fired is within the president’s discretion and not something a court can question." That's not a protection, then. www.bloomberg.com/news/live-bl...

🚨Border Patrol arrested two firefighters who were actively fighting a wildfire at the time. When the other members of the crew asked for a chance to say goodbye, a Border Patrol agent told the crew member “you need to get the f*ck out of here. I’m going to make you leave.”

The letter is ready, thanks to all those who helped out! Starting to gather signature now, please consider signing (link at top of letter) & spread the word. docs.google.com/document/d/1...

If you think the attack on the Fed's Lisa Cook has nothing to do with you, you're wrong — any one of us may be next paulkrugman.substack.com/p/we-are-all...

My thoughts in the NYT on where we stand now with the Fed. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/26/o...

Framework update from Powell: removed the "shortfalls" language but adds: "employment may at times run above real-time assessments of maximum employment without necessarily creating risks to price stability." noting that estimates of "maximum employment" are "highly uncertain."

I'm going to ignore the strict politics/optics for a second, not because they should be ignored, but because we do have some reported fact here. First: if UMCU waived the provision for residence, this is all a nothingburger. Not clear they did or didn't. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

surely this type of behavior will lower long-term yields www.nbcnews.com/business/eco...

so okay! first piece out from me at Common Wealth "Beyond Bidenomics: On what is living and what is dead in economic policy" the argument is that progressives should take credit for the successful parts of the pandemic policy response and build the next Thing www.common-wealth.org/perspectives...

Services inflation is elevated because someone, not saying who, had a bad tummy this week and didn't improve until right after the expensive followup which turned out to be unnecessary

New from me at @employamerica.bsky.social In Defense of the 2020 Fed Framework's Emphasis on Full Employment www.employamerica.org/monetary-pol...

his lack of publications is not really the problem here

perhaps the funniest possible pick, totally obvious in hindsight

Maybe I'm missing something but I don't see it in the CPS microdata -- this is frac. of people who reported being foreign-born in the previous survey but report being not foreign born in the next survey The rise in native-born population still shows among the subset that are linked between surveys

Native born employment and population may appear higher because… people are now self reporting that they were born in the US rather than abroad.

just realized they gave liane lippert the pretty bike

It has been the honor of my life to serve as Commissioner of BLS alongside the many dedicated civil servants tasked with measuring a vast and dynamic economy. It is vital and important work and I thank them for their service to this nation.

A few of our colleagues in macro enthusiastically joined this Administration, which is now destroying one of our profession's most valuable resources in the BLS data. I wonder how they're feeling about it? Will there be any kind of social stigma afterwards?

i need to lie down

People will focus on the main accountability effects of politicizing BLS. But cooking those numbers also has numerous knock-on policy effects. It’s not just the FOMC that uses BLS data. They guide revenue forecasts, UI payments, allocation formula for dozens of federal programs. (2/x)

Btw the CES collection rate for July was not very great (57.6%)

tdf femmes Stage 7: Camera on the motorbike following Kim Le Court pans to the moto speedometer and it shows 90 km/h, i'm going to throw up

that's kind of weird (h/t/ @brianscheid.bsky.social)

red = bad btw

May revised down from +144k to +19k. June revised down +147k to +14k.

6 stages in (of 9), the general classification of the Tour de France Femmes is wide open. Any of the top 9 could plausibly win and it would be an incredible story. Every stage has delivered (Mavi Garcia!). No idea what the next 3 days will bring but sure to be exciting.

good lord it is terrifying to watch cedrine kerboal descend

Wow, Kasia taking every risk to put the other favorites to the sword on this descent

US jobs market reaches "steady state" but for how long? "Employers are like deer in the headlights, uncertain what's coming and frozen in place," said @aaronsojourner.org "Not hiring and not firing." www.spglobal.com/market-intel... w/ @prestonmui.bsky.social & @econberger.bsky.social

Based on today's trade data and tariffs collected in June the effective tariff rate was 10.1% already--not your 2018 trade war

Accommodation and Food Services quits continue to rise in June

Niewiadoma attacking with PFP? This is peak cyclismo

Striking how shattered the peloton is on the first stage already, only 50ish riders in that front group coming into the finish. So much less parity in the women's peloton than the men's (and imo a good reason to not jump the length of the TdF Femmes to 21 stages any time soon)

J.P. Morgan's Michael Feroli warns reporters against blowing Qs on chairmanship tenure/staffing issues at FOMC press conference: "We expect that all of these will be wasted opportunities by members of the press corps, as Powell will repeat that he is focused on the job Congress has given him."