wow — the preprint host, arxiv, is banning authors for a year if they submit papers with hallucinated citations 🤖

Today's book review (and recommendation) is Lawrence Freedman's "Ukraine and the Art of Strategy" Written in 2019, it makes clear that many of the current patterns vis-a-vis Russia are far from new developments. ukraineinsights.substack.com/p/book-revie...

The cost of winsorizing is highest when treatment effects are concentrated in the tails. Medical claims are the canonical example: interventions often move the right tail, so winsorizing imputes away the very variation that identifies the effect!

Great feature of legalized kidney compensation is that it pays for itself "It would be financially feasible to pay donors quite generously without requiring recipients to pay anything at all. Donors could be paid entirely from the savings to the health care system by taking patients off dialysis."

#EconSky: I got on the "Let's see how well AI can write an academic paper" wagon. Check it out. TL;DR: I'm pretty impressed, although Claude also told me that the current version would probably top out at Economics Letters or Economic Inquiry. deryugina.com/wp-content/u...

Every 'lesson' is simple & important

Question: What term describes a situation where opposing state militaries are engaged in competing blockades, one fires missiles and drones, the other fires air defense interceptors and fires on small attack boats, sinking any in their vicinity? US media: A “ceasefire.”

Absolutely nuts that his is allowed to happen with a sitting president.

My latest two cents is a review of Timothy Snyder's "On Tyranny". TL; DR: it's a must-read (and short). open.substack.com/pub/mytwocen...

🎙️ New episode of Policy Implications. I spoke with @dariia.bsky.social about her new paper on UA migration to PL and what it tells us about migration and voting. The findings challenge the simple idea that more migration automatically boosts the far right. Listen here: tinyurl.com/52ar3c7k

Fantastic report about the Trump Administration's attacks on free speech. This is an essential liberty that all of us have a duty to protect. We can't accept this as a new normal. www.freepress.net/attack-on-fr...

Russia’s war against the West did not start with the invasion of #Ukraine. It started with years of sustained disinformation designed to confuse audiences and weaken decision-making. voxukraine.org/en/europe-mu...

Russia’s war against the West did not start with the invasion of #Ukraine. It started with years of sustained disinformation designed to confuse audiences and weaken decision-making. voxukraine.org/en/europe-mu...

Read my report CHOKEHOLD for @freepress.bsky.social detailing the Trump admin's relentless assault on free speech & dissent. No one has been safe from attack -- media outlets, protesters, public officials, law firms, students, professors, the list goes on. www.freepress.net/attack-on-fr...

Did you ever wish you could get help with your power calculations? Now you can! earlyreview.ai will give you estimates of treatment effects based on your early project documents (e.g., pre-analysis plans, registered reports, grant proposals, etc.).

Easy to dismiss such reality-inverting BS, but it's the president's strategy for the world's two most systemically impactful wars (Ukraine and Iran): Say the side he wants to lose has been totally defeated, hope that manifests it into being, or at least gets the BS into public narratives for a bit.

Going after a network for a joke, regardless of whether or not it's a "bad" one, should be absolutely unacceptable to the American public. Even if nothing happens to ABC as a result, such moves are designed to promote self-censorship. We must resist and speak up! www.npr.org/2026/04/28/n...

Please tell me in whose world is this putting America first? www.cbsnews.com/news/nationa...

Some examples of why I don't think generative AI is going to take all our jobs, at least in the foreseeable future. #EconSky deryugina.com/a-rant-about...

Some examples of why I don't think generative AI is going to take all our jobs, at least in the foreseeable future. #EconSky deryugina.com/a-rant-about...

I expect that we'll soon see a full replication layer for empirical econ: every paper from the past 20 years systematically re-run, audited, and documented on a public website. Even for papers that used proprietary data, the code and methods will be stress-tested in public.

Insurance isn’t the only way to smooth shocks, credit matters too. My new paper with Jaffe and Malani models insurance and borrowing jointly, showing they are substitutes: access to loans sharply reduces insurance value, cutting it in half for typical households. julianreif.com/research/rei...

Has anyone tried Claude as a news curator? Basic idea: create a skill file with detailed preferences over what kinds of news one is interested in, ask Claude for related stories.

AJHE is now online! Our social media editor, Anna Chorniy, will be posting summaries of our accepted papers.

Hey, #EconSky! The administration is trying to cut NSF's Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences Directorate. Click below to contact your representatives and urge them to save it. Tell your friends. Our research matters and is worth funding! www.congressweb.com/COSSA/58?fra...

Hey, #EconSky! The administration is trying to cut NSF's Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences Directorate. Click below to contact your representatives and urge them to save it. Tell your friends. Our research matters and is worth funding! www.congressweb.com/COSSA/58?fra...

Friends don't let friends dump unfiltered gen AI output on others.

Before generative AI, I spent a lot of time learning the nuances of LaTeX and Beamer: how to get slides to look right, how to fix obscure compilation issues. It was frustrating at times, but also genuinely educational. I do think something might be lost for the next generation.

About 5 hours remaining until President Trump says “a whole civilization will die tonight” if the Strait of Hormuz isn’t reopened. This is a war crime. Full stop. Watch the full video and subscribe to my Substack page here: www.adamkinzinger.com/p/a-whole-ci...

The President cannot order the military to violate American law, commit war crimes, and kill civilians on purpose.

1/ 🎙️A new episode of Policy Implications is out, and I’m grateful to @tderyugina.bsky.social for stepping in to host this conversation on charitable giving during wartime with Margaryta Klymak, @dariia.bsky.social, @andrewkosenko.bsky.social, and Kathryn Vasilaky. 🎧 Listen: tinyurl.com/4p9zk4r8

"A whole civilization will die tonight" and "God Bless the Great People of Iran" in one breath. Unbelievable.

Check out another episode of our podcast! Host Olha Zadorozhna and James Hodson, CEO of the AI for Good Foundation, discuss the real economic value of U.S. aid to Ukraine: how much has been delivered, how it compares to EU aid, and who benefits. Listen: youtu.be/0oDZjhbQOuQ?...

New work from Brookings and the American Journal of Health Economics suggests the health care cost curve may finally be bending conversableeconomist.com/2026/03/27/b...

New paper alert, #EconSky! We propose a simple, data-driven way to measure corruption using household surveys. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Useful resource for health economists

The linked blog post is an excellent refutation of the nonsense promoted by AI companies. Current AI models are limited by what they're fed. Human creativity allows what we know to be abandoned to discover new theories, such as Special & General Relativity.

Some argue that generative AI marks the end of human-generated knowledge. I’m skeptical. A simple thought experiment: train the best AI on everything humanity knew in 1875. Would it have discovered relativity, quantum mechanics, DNA? Unlikely. Full blog post here: deryugina.com/human-knowle...

Some argue that generative AI marks the end of human-generated knowledge. I’m skeptical. A simple thought experiment: train the best AI on everything humanity knew in 1875. Would it have discovered relativity, quantum mechanics, DNA? Unlikely. Full blog post here: deryugina.com/human-knowle...

🎙️ New episode of Policy Implications! It was a real honor to host @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social and Maurice Obstfeld. We talk about what it will take for UA to rebuild and grow stronger after the war. Not just aid, but investment, institutions, and smart policy choices. 🎧 Listen: tinyurl.com/6r3t4yrr

🇺🇦 is our friend 🇷🇺 is our enemy. 🇺🇦 fights for freedom 🇷🇺 survives by inventing enemies and beating the war drum. The Kremlin turns 🇺🇸 into a monster so it can pose as a savior – practicing politics of grievance to justify repression at home & atrocities abroad www.realclearworld.com/articles/202...

Want an ultimate challenge in terms of macroeconomic stabilization? #Ukraine can give you one We have some ideas on macro strategy Joint with @tderyugina.bsky.social & @ilonasolohub.bsky.social #UkrainianView epravda.com.ua/finances/eko...

This page is pretty awesome! Here's my favorite so far.

Regardless of any benefits Russia derived from cooperating with Iran in the past, America's war with Iran is clearly good news for the Kremlin. open.substack.com/pub/ukrainei...

Generative AI can now draft essays, write code, summarize research, and solve many textbook-style problems. So what skills should students and our children be learning today? I think three are key: identifying direction, good judgment, and problem-solving. #EconSky deryugina.com/what-to-teac...

Trump has demonstrated time and again that he's beholding to Putin--he never says a bad word about Putin and never acts against Putin's crimes.

That's probably why Trump can't come up with a reason he attacked Iran. Everything Trump does benefits Putin. He's incapable of the smallest criticism of Putin, even when it involves Putin killing Americans. Trump's response is, "Well, we kill people, too."🤷‍♀️

Regardless of any benefits Russia derived from cooperating with Iran in the past, America's war with Iran is clearly good news for the Kremlin. open.substack.com/pub/ukrainei...

#EconSky: Check out my new paper (with M. Alston and O. Shurchkov)! We asked a simple question: what if survey respondents can choose their incentive? • $5 e-gift card guaranteed • 1-in-20 chance of $100 e-gift card (same expected value) • or no payment at all Paper: doi.org/10.1016/j.jo...

Let me take you through the last 48 hours. 1) The Trump administration panics because Iran threatens to block all trade through the Straits of Hormuz. 2) Trump threatens to commit mass war crimes and biblical levels of destruction if Iran does this. www.axios.com/2026/03/11/t...