$2.4 trillion projected cost (over 6 years; as of April 2022) of Russian aggression is likely a lower bound. Professional forecasters underestimated to cost of RUS illegal annexation of #Crimea and partial occupation of the #Donbas in 2014 by a factor of 3 #UkrainianView

A Russian drone hits a #university building in #Kharkiv Senseless and barbaric daily terror Imagine your university gets a hit like that #Ukraine

Fed Inflation Credibility Threatened #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

The T-shirt says it all... But Salvini also once said he would like to have Putin as Italy’s prime minister “tomorrow”.

A weak response invites more provocations, more aggression, more brinkmanship

Inflation ⬆️ & Employment ⬇️ → Stagflation A difficult situation for the Fed. Cut interest rates now → risk of rising inflation ⬆️ More here: "Inflation, Expectations and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned and to What End?" with Oli Coibion @empctmacrotx.bsky.social, shorturl.at/2fmOD #EconSky

BEL Foreign Minister: don't take RUS money b/c "this would kill the hen [SWIFT] laying golden eggs" Sure, it's more important than Russia killing Ukrainians, the greatest war in Europe since WW2, Russian war crimes, etc. www.ft.com/content/f0cc...

The chilling effects of RUS aggression are very much clear in the €zone. Large spillover effects have implications for: * Macro stabilization in Europe * The cost of war in general & RUS agg specifically * The calculus of costs&benefits of aid to #Ukraine * mil buildup in Europe #UkrainianView

A new PS piece with @ilonasolohub.bsky.social and @matsmarcusson.bsky.social 2 options: 1) RUS defeat (means more sanctions & more weapons for UKR). 2) a defeat for democracy (&subdued Europe). If 1), Europeans should sacrifice some of their welfare. If 2), they'll lose it all. #UkrainianView

Over 125 economists signed the open letter calling on the President, Congress, and the American public to uphold the principles of Federal Reserve independence and not remove Lisa Cook without due process. There's still time to sign! And please share. #EconSky docs.google.com/document/d/1...

Rebuilding Ukraine is more than just bricks—it's about a rebuilding a modern, secure future. New research paper by @torbjornbecker.bsky.social, @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social, and Beatrice Weder di Mauro maps the path to a resilient, democratic Ukraine. 💡Learn more: www.hhs.se/en/about-us/...

📊Working Paper No.3 A new paper by Olga Bondarenko utilizes partial-equilibrium models with nonstationary variables to endogenously estimate grain price trends, offering insight into how Russia’s invasion may have affected prices by reducing Ukraine’s presence in global commodity markets. #EconSky

How Wars in Foreign Countries Influence Inflation and Expectations That is what Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko explore in our most recent blog post "When Foreign Wars Abroad Hit Wallets at Home".

A great honor!

Trump welcomes a war criminal on US soil #UkrainianView

EU leaders: ... vital interests include ... robust&credible sec guarantees that enable UKR to defend its sovereignty&territorial integrity. #Ukraine has the freedom of choice over its own destiny. Meaningful negotiations can only take place in the context of a ceasefire/reduction of hostilities.

❓Did you know that Econ4UA has created a repository of research papers on Ukraine and the Russian invasion? It includes categories such as finance, sanctions, trade, agriculture, energy, labor markets, and governance. See our database: econ4ua.org/research-rep... #EconSky

📼 Journalists from Radio Liberty have released previously unseen surveillance footage showing Russian soldiers killing 70-year-old Volodymyr Rubailo on Yablunska Street in Kyiv Oblast’s town of Bucha on 4 March 2022. www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/202... #Ukraine #Russia #RussianWarCrimes

📊Working Paper No.1 The first comprehensive analysis of the economic value of US aid delivered to #Ukraine from 2022 to 2024. Carefully tracking and valuing aid deliveries, the authors find a total of $51.2 billion—a fraction of official figures, with a low budgetary impact. #EconSky Read more:

Please submit your papers to the series! #EconSky #UkrainianView #Ukraine

Forecasts of the cost of the war in #Ukraine pointed to stagflation for Ukraine and Russia, as well as similar but smaller effects in the rest of Eastern Europe. The total cost of the war is estimated to be $2.4 trillion. @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social, V Vasudevan cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Very important!

Great piece by Martin Wolf #UkrainianView

KQED Forum on #Ukraine's reconstruction The story about rebuilding #Irpin (including the role of the SF Bay Area) is most inspiring #UkrainianView www.kqed.org/forum/201010...

THU at 9AM: BBC reporter Zhanna Bezpiatchuk, Center for Innovation's Margie O'Driscoll, Stantec's Eugene Chumakov & UC Berkeley professor @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social on the challenges Ukraine faces as it seeks to rebuild while still at war. ❓ What Qs do you have about reconstruction in Ukraine?

Although the source and duration of the destruction differ, wars and natural disasters disrupt economies in similar ways. Shifrah Aron-Dine uses evidence from the impacts of Hurricane Maria to develop rebuilding policies applicable for #Ukraine. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

The single biggest source of oil tankers for Putin's shadow fleet is Greece (blue). That's an opportunity for the EU to grow, not sweep this under the rug. A proper investigation is needed to uncover how this happened. That'll strengthen the EU, not weaken it. @econharris.bsky.social @brookings.edu

Local optimum: do not touch Russian money Global optimum: seize Russian money & transfer it to #Ukraine #UkrainianView

RE Trump's talk to impose sanctions on countries importing Russian oil/gas: The Hall of Shame is public knowledge: China, India, Turkey, Singapore, Egypt, Brazil. #UkrainianView

Life goes on in #Ukraine

Trump has yet to name his pick to replace Powell, but whomever he chooses will have to overcome doubts that they are setting interest rates free of influence from the White House or risk eroding the institution’s credibility www.nytimes.com/2025/07/10/b... @nytimes.com @darioperkins.bsky.social

Vincenzo De Luca, the head of the Campania region, defended the decision to engage Gergiev: the invitation showed that “dialogue between people can grow & the values of human solidarity can develop.” Mr. De Luca should travel to #Ukraine to see what Putin's friends do #UkrainianView

Many interesting chapters + there is one on #Ukraine #UkrainianView

On July 4th, no less. Putin is humiliating Trump. In the last couple of weeks, every combined attack (air- & sea-launched cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, large drones, and decoys), has been bigger than the previous ones. Today - 539 missiles/drones overnight. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/04/w...

Trump's call to Putin certainly worked. Sarcasm

How much money does Ukraine need? By @martinsandbu.ft.com The least expensive policy by far is to give the country enough now to win the war www.ft.com/content/4835...

Chapter 28 brings together Tom Enders, Jeannette zu Fürstenberg, René Obermann, & @schularick.bsky.social and their perspectives from industry, technology and economics to outline priorities for a German and European #defence policy strategy for the coming decades. cepr.org/publications... #EconSky

This ages well... Trump: “[Putin] is not going into Ukraine, OK, just so you understand. He’s not going to go into #Ukraine, all right? You can mark it down. You can put it down. You can take it anywhere you want.” #UkrainianView

Macron&Merz: "We have condemned&sanctioned Russia. There is more to come. We'll increase our support to the Ukrainian army. We'll invest collectively in UKR def industry. [With UK], we'll ensure that UKR’s future military is large enough and equipped to deter any new invasion." #UkrainianView

Andrew Bailey (governor of the Bank of England) came to #Kyiv to give a lecture at #NBU research conference: "I am quite simply in awe of what Ukraine confronts as a nation, what you face as a central bank, & how you have conducted yourselves during these most difficult of times." #UkrainianView

1,000,000 The combat losses of the enemy from February 24, 2022 to June 12, 2025.

Truly an awful attack on my native Kharkiv. Civilian homes and apartment buildings. Beyond disgraceful. Russia is a terror state.

@econ4ua.bsky.social is sharing a new article from co-founder @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social, with @torbjornbecker.bsky.social and Barry Eichengreen. If Western aid declines, how can Ukraine sustain its economy and war effort? This “Plan B” outlines macroeconomic strategies—and why Europe must act.

UKR MP: "Western companies were operating in RUS at their own risk. Why are these companies asking their societies to compensate for this risk? We need this money to rebuild & defend #Ukraine." "If private investors are compensated before the victims of war, it won't be justice" Bad decision

What makes this a happy news is the multitude of innocent lives saved by destroying these plans - which were apparently loaded and ready to kill again, like before. Many of us who check air raid maps on our phones and call close ones every day just to know if they are alive, feel very grateful.

Czech President Petr Pavel opened the 2 annual Discussion Forum (Global&European Challenges for Security&Economic Policy) organized by #CERGE-EI A lively discussion on today’s most pressing security/econ issues, with a focus on #Europe & the sense of urgency in a shifting geopolitical landscape.

📢 𝑪𝒂𝒍𝒍 𝒇𝒐𝒓 𝑷𝒂𝒑𝒆𝒓𝒔: Workshop on 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗕𝗲𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗶𝗼𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗠𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗰𝘀 at the SF Fed 🌁 San Francisco, October 27, 2025 🚨 Keynote speaker: @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social 📆 Submission deadline: July 31, 2025 ➡️ Full CfP: treinelt.github.io/files/CfP_Ex... @sanjaysingh.bsky.social

Economists for Ukraine leadership member and co-founder James Hodson’s new novel, The Last Lullaby, tells the harrowing story of Katya, a Ukrainian girl stolen from Mariupol, stripped of her name, her language, and her identity. Read James’s eye-opening interview about the book and its mission:

Very excited about this special issue of the Journal of International Economics on Geoeconomics. Submission deadline September 15, Conference at Stanford February 2026. Hoping to include papers across a number of fields!

Trump says if RUS tanks did not get stuck in the mud, they would have been in Kyiv. The photo shows how the "mud" looked like in reality. Make no mistake: it was the heroism of Ukrainians that stopped Rus tanks #UkrainianView