Monthly losses of Russian vehicles and fuel tankers (Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of #Ukraine) A dramatic increase in recent months. Recent days were ~500/day Daily number for June 1, 2026: 517 At this rate, June will be well above 10,000

Kyiv this morning After a massive Russian attack

Studying how information treatments affect corruption perceptions and prosocial behavior in Ukraine, from @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social, Ilona Sologoub, and Yuriy Fedyk www.nber.org/papers/w35251

Olivier Blanchard on my #Ukriane chapter for #CEPR Europe 2050 project: "You may well start skeptical: Yes, first we need peace or something close. And UKR is not perfect. But read it with an open mind and change your mind, or at least move your prior. The opportunity is there." #UkrainianView

Great pleasure to contribute my chapter on #Ukraine to CEPR's Europe 2050 Years ago, #California was the frontier of the “Wild West.” Today, it is the beating heart of innovation and the new economy. In much the same way, Ukraine is poised to become the “Wild East” of the European Union (EU).

Heartbreaking

The National Bank of Ukraine and Narodowy Bank Polski invite submissions for their 10th joint Annual Research Conference titled “Central Banks Response to Future Challenges: Resilience, Credibility, and Innovation”. See the call for papers #EconSky

A Glovo delivery in Kyiv after a massive Russian attack on our city. That's Ukraine.

A proposal to manage blackouts in #Ukraine and other countries

Impled expected inflation, real rates both up #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Unless NY Times misquoted Pierre Yared, he predicts deflation: Pierre Yared, the acting chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, predicted last week that consumer prices would “go back down” once the war ended. Prof. forecasters predict 3.6% CPI #inflation tinyurl.com/56twry6s

It was a heavy attack. I'm still shaking, even though we spent the entire time in the shelter. russians erased a block of a residential building in Kyiv, w people still trapped under the rubble. I can't comprehend how anyone living safely in the free world could support this.

PPI inflation: 6%in April 2026 The Producer Price Index (PPI) is generally considered a leading indicator for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) This means we are likely to see further acceleration in CPI inflation. 3.8% CPI inflation in April 2026 is not the end of it

Gas prices are up! Research (tinyurl.com/34bbeums) shows that when gas prices fall and American households save $1, that dollar is spent elsewhere—reflecting MPC=1 from gas savings. I think the reverse likely holds too: an extra $1 spent on gas reduces spending on other things by ≈$1. #EconSky

Big spending, little future: Germany is rearming differently from Poland and the UK - our new report is out: www.kielinstitut.de/publications...

“Ukraine is no longer just an aid recipient; it is emerging as a security provider for Europe,” writes Andrew Chakhoyan, an academic director at the University of Amsterdam, in this op-ed.

In 1947, George Kennan quoted a dispatch to US State Dept in 1850s: "A strange superstition prevails among the Russians, that they are destined to conquer the world... they believe that the time is not far distant when the world will be one great Russian Empire." Little has changed #UkrainianView

How households perceive the transmission of monetary policy and how these perceptions affect their decisions, from Francesco Grigoli, Damiano Sandri, @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social, and Olivier Coibion www.nber.org/papers/w35127

Love the colors of the cover! #UkrainianView #EconSky

This is important when you think about rebuilding post-war #Ukraine and the defense effort now

1/ Migration between UA and PL is often framed as a story of crisis, pressure, and displacement. But it is also a story about skills, talent, and long-term economic strategy. In the new episode of Policy Implications, I spoke with Ivanna Kyliushyk about exactly that. Link: tinyurl.com/2zz84p5r

Will higher inflation expectations force the Fed’s hand? @investopedia.com speaks with Olivier Coibion, co-author with @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social of Expectations Matter: The New Causal Macroeconomics of Surveys and Experiments:

New release from the Michigan Survey of Consumers for March 2026 #Inflation #expectations of household surge. The median 1-year-ahead increased to almost 5%. One-year expected business conditions plunged about 20% More there: www.sca.isr.umich.edu

The slides for "Expectations Matter: The New Causal Macroeconomics of Surveys & Experiments" (w/ Oli Coibion) are here: tinyurl.com/943xxc66 The book is available from the publisher (with a 30% discount; the code is P329) press.princeton.edu/books/hardco... Amazon: www.amazon.com/Expectations...

New EMPCT opinion piece with Olivier Coibion on the #inflation outlook. As shown in the figure below, the current inflation trajectory is strikingly reminiscent of the late 1970s — and the implications are concerning. #EconSky #oil #oilprice #gasoline More here: tinyurl.com/ycym769x

What people believe about the economy—and why it matters. Expectations Matter by Olivier Coibion and @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social is out now (19 May UK pub)! Learn more: press.princeton.edu/books/hardco... #Economics #Finance #ReadUP

Our book is finally here!! Oli Coibion @empctmacrotx.bsky.social & me with our advance copies Grateful to everyone who helped along the way—colleagues, students, coauthors, & early readers who shaped the project at every stage Official release tomorrow! tinyurl.com/385ak89u #EconSky

Many thanks to @olhazadorozhna.bsky.social for the podcast! The paper (commissioned by @cepr.org) is available here: tinyurl.com/yxe6ftnx #UkrainianView #Ukraine #EconSky

Scott Bessent says that U.S. may unsanction the Iranian oil. "In essence, we'd be using the Iranian barrels against the Iranians to keep the price down for the next 10 or 14 days, as we continue this campaign." 1st unsanction Russian oil, now Iranian oil what is next???

‪ By lifting sanction on Russia, Trump is pouring fuel into the Russian war machine and makes the war longer and more deadly. Terrible policy #Ukraine #UkrainianView www.ft.com/content/0fab...

Want an ultimate challenge in terms of macroeconomic stabilization? #Ukraine can give you one We have some ideas on macro strategy Joint with @tderyugina.bsky.social & @ilonasolohub.bsky.social #UkrainianView epravda.com.ua/finances/eko...

#UCBerkeley is sanctioned by #Russia... We must be doing the right things #UkrainianView #Ukraine www.dailycal.org/news/campus/...

1/🎙️ New episode of Policy Implications! I talk with @ekatovich.bsky.social about sanctions on RU oil and why their real impact may take years to appear. 🎧 Listen: tinyurl.com/cdjm8wkb #EconSky #PoliSky #EconTwitter

US solution to oil shortages now? Unsanction Russian oil! Terrible decision #Ukraine #UkrainianView

This is how sheer lunacy looks like... The main point of the resolution is that attacks on Ukraine electrical substations and other energy infrastructure pose a direct threat to nuclear safety. How can one not want to support it? #Ukraine www.wsj.com/world/for-th...

Zelensky recently said that Russia attacked #Ukraine more than 57,000 Shahed drone

Iranian drone hits a high rise in Bahrain Russia uses the same drones to attack #Ukraine every day and does the same hits of residential buildings in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odessa, Drinpro and many other cities

Zelensky: "RUS used 57K+ Shahed strike drones against #Ukraine. UKR never threatened Iran, but the Iranian regime chose to be an accomplice for Putin& supplied him with Shaheds(drones&technology).It is fair to give the Iranian people a chance to get rid of the terrorist regime" tinyurl.com/3c9p2ha7

On Feb 24, 2026, marks 4 years since Russia’s full-scale invasion. Ukraine’s courage and resilience endure. Supporting Ukraine isn’t only solidarity - it’s an investment in Europe’s security and stability. At SITE, we’ll keep providing rigorous, policy-relevant analysis. More of SITE: tr.ee/SHAKnh

A new piece by @martinsandbu.ft.com "Put all this together, and it’s not much of an exaggeration to say that Europe and #Ukraine are, economically, the much stronger side in this war. It is time to realise this, and press the victory home." 100% a great subtitle too: "it’s the economy, stupid"

@cepr.org podcast with Maurice Obstfeld ( @piie.com and @ucberkeleyofficial.bsky.social ) and me about the reconstruction of #Ukraine #UkrainianView #EconSky cepr.org/multimedia/w...

UN GA vote on “Support for lasting peace in #Ukraine” USA abstained. What a shame!

On Feb 24, 2022, my nephew (he was 7 years old at the time) wrote in his diary: "This night Russia attacked Ukraine and Kyiv too." #Ukraine #StandWithUkraine

How did #Ukraine economy survive the RUS onslaught? maybe a miracle but there are also fundamental factors : 1) defend skies, shipping lanes 2) fiscal stimulus ↑ 3) vital int'l aid 4) play econ cards well 5) adaptability of private sector #UkrainianView #EconSky (w/ @tderyugina.bsky.social )

1/🎙️New episode of Policy Implications! I talk with Julien Daubanes about sanctions on RU oil, the rise of the shadow fleet, and why sanctions are not a one-time policy decision. Listen to find out what actually hurts RU oil profits most. 🎧 Link: tinyurl.com/mraaueyw #EconSky #PoliSky #EconTwitter

Campanile @ucberkeleyofficial.bsky.social will participate in "Call For Freedom" to commemorate 4 years of Ukrainian Bravery. Come & listen! Thanks to Max Zubkov (www.maksymzubkov.info/my-ukraine) and UCB Borsch club #UkrainianView #Berkeley #Ukraine

Register! #UkrainianView #EconSky

Four years after the terrible invasion of Ukraine, transshipments to Russia via Kyrgyzstan run rampant from Germany (top left) and Italy (top right). If Poland (bottom left) and Lithuania (bottom right) can get this under control, why not Germany and Italy? robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/eu-transsh...

Reminder: After the 2014 annexation of Crimea, PACE stripped RUS of its voting rights. Jagland (then Sec Gen of CoE) was a leading proponent of restoring these rights. Many saw this as a "betrayal" that normalized the illegal annexation & signaled that Russia can break law w/o lasting consequences.

As we approach the 4 year mark of the war, #UCBerkeley #OLLI olli.berkeley.edu hosts a talk today @ 10:30am pacific Context: George and I had a talk 4 years ago (just after Russia invaded #Ukraine): www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5lo... #UkrainianView