Is true Russian GDP above or below 2021 levels? #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Today is one of those days that shines a light on people's true intentions. Global long-term yields (red) are rising very sharply. If you're European and think issuing more debt into this is something to celebrate - instead of using Russian money - you don't have Europe's best interest at heart...

This is how moral hazard looks like: you invest $$$ into Putin/Russia knowing the high risks, and then you scream for a bailout/protection when things go south. Raiffeisen, Unicredit, etc. had plenty of time to exit Russia #UkrainianView #EconSky

"The disabling of holdout members’ vetoes will do much more for the EU’s economic security than anything proposed in the strategy update." 100% #UkrainianView

free economic zone in the #Donbas??? Is there a free economic zone in Korea's DMZ? The experience is clear: no security, no economy. Don't kid anybody with such proposals

Our new @piie.com Working Paper on Russia’s war-induced regional convergence with @eribakova.bsky.social & @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social now out! @bofit.suomenpankki.fi @suomenpankki.fi Many poorer regions saw their incomes rise faster 2022-24 as public spending rose🇷🇺 www.piie.com/publications...

Terrific debate!

Witkoff-Dmitriev plan RE #Ukraine is wrong & it'd be crazy to start negotiations w an extreme RUS position. @tderyugina.bsky.social @ilonasolohub.bsky.social, Anastassia Fedyk, James Hodson & I have a counter-proposal that would give genuine peace. Our 28 points vs RUS 28 points. #UkrainianView

Developing a scalable, data-driven method to assess public procurement quality, and revealing governance risks like corruption through transparent, comparable metrics, from @tderyugina.bsky.social, Žaldokas, Fedyk, @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social, Hodson, and Sologoub www.nber.org/papers/w34479

Some reflections on Ukraine's corruption scandal from @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social , @tderyugina.bsky.social , Anastassiya Fedyk voxukraine.org/en/more-ammu...

Boot camp in Behavioral Macro is back! where: Cambridge, Massachusetts when: May 14–15, 2026 who is eligible: full-time PhD students at a US or Canadian university #EconSky

This food trivia game card on "borscht" is yet another example of an attribution of a not authentically russian heritage as russian. There's a UNESCO nomination of Ukrainian culture on this dish - and it has versions and names in other Eastern European nations, the word itself coming from Yiddish.

Long overdue But why was Sachs invited there in the first place?

While the West has been generous in supporting #Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion, its financial aid can be used only for non-military purposes. This creates distortions that undermine Ukraine’s war effort. Foreign donors should directly fund defense spending. #UkrainianView

Call for papers: sites.lsa.umich.edu/rudib/wp-con... Submit your work #EconSky

Trump is back to square one... The variance of U.S. "policy" is incredible. The damage to U.S. credibility is growing

Uncertainty is now a key feature of the global order+the very instruments designed to ensure stability—politics, trade, and the monetary system—have themselves become sources of risk. But #Ukraine, with its large agri sector & limited integration into global fin markets, is in fact less vulnerable.

📊Working Paper No. 7: “What Drives Refugees’ Return After Conflict?” Survey of 2,500+ Ukrainian refugees across 30 European countries: territorial integrity and security guarantees are key to return. Read: econ4ua.org/wp-content/u... Submit research: lnkd.in/gf2nQ5WC

What would Texans say if the President sent Illinois Guard troops to patrol their town? The Second Amendment affirms that people's right to keep local order by locally accountable forces is necessary to the security of a free state. This right is vital for all of us. www.nytimes.com/live/2025/10...

Another [diplomant] said: this would “pay for Raiffeisen’s own risk [taking]” by deciding to continue operating in Russia. yes, Raiffeisen decided to operate in Russia, decided to continue operations in RU after the invasion of #Ukraine. Raiffeisen has to face the consequences & pay the price.

Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh makes a strong case.

“Stablecoins, like money-market funds, project security but can collapse under pressure,” argues Jean Tirole in a guest essay. The Nobel laureate explains why these digital tokens are riskier than promised

$2.4 trillion projected cost (over 6 years; as of April 2022) of Russian aggression is likely a lower bound. Professional forecasters underestimated to cost of RUS illegal annexation of #Crimea and partial occupation of the #Donbas in 2014 by a factor of 3 #UkrainianView

A Russian drone hits a #university building in #Kharkiv Senseless and barbaric daily terror Imagine your university gets a hit like that #Ukraine

Fed Inflation Credibility Threatened #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

The T-shirt says it all... But Salvini also once said he would like to have Putin as Italy’s prime minister “tomorrow”.

A weak response invites more provocations, more aggression, more brinkmanship

Inflation ⬆️ & Employment ⬇️ → Stagflation A difficult situation for the Fed. Cut interest rates now → risk of rising inflation ⬆️ More here: "Inflation, Expectations and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned and to What End?" with Oli Coibion @empctmacrotx.bsky.social, shorturl.at/2fmOD #EconSky

BEL Foreign Minister: don't take RUS money b/c "this would kill the hen [SWIFT] laying golden eggs" Sure, it's more important than Russia killing Ukrainians, the greatest war in Europe since WW2, Russian war crimes, etc. www.ft.com/content/f0cc...

The chilling effects of RUS aggression are very much clear in the €zone. Large spillover effects have implications for: * Macro stabilization in Europe * The cost of war in general & RUS agg specifically * The calculus of costs&benefits of aid to #Ukraine * mil buildup in Europe #UkrainianView

A new PS piece with @ilonasolohub.bsky.social and @matsmarcusson.bsky.social 2 options: 1) RUS defeat (means more sanctions & more weapons for UKR). 2) a defeat for democracy (&subdued Europe). If 1), Europeans should sacrifice some of their welfare. If 2), they'll lose it all. #UkrainianView

Over 125 economists signed the open letter calling on the President, Congress, and the American public to uphold the principles of Federal Reserve independence and not remove Lisa Cook without due process. There's still time to sign! And please share. #EconSky docs.google.com/document/d/1...

Rebuilding Ukraine is more than just bricks—it's about a rebuilding a modern, secure future. New research paper by @torbjornbecker.bsky.social, @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social, and Beatrice Weder di Mauro maps the path to a resilient, democratic Ukraine. 💡Learn more: www.hhs.se/en/about-us/...

📊Working Paper No.3 A new paper by Olga Bondarenko utilizes partial-equilibrium models with nonstationary variables to endogenously estimate grain price trends, offering insight into how Russia’s invasion may have affected prices by reducing Ukraine’s presence in global commodity markets. #EconSky

How Wars in Foreign Countries Influence Inflation and Expectations That is what Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko explore in our most recent blog post "When Foreign Wars Abroad Hit Wallets at Home".

A great honor!

Trump welcomes a war criminal on US soil #UkrainianView

EU leaders: ... vital interests include ... robust&credible sec guarantees that enable UKR to defend its sovereignty&territorial integrity. #Ukraine has the freedom of choice over its own destiny. Meaningful negotiations can only take place in the context of a ceasefire/reduction of hostilities.

❓Did you know that Econ4UA has created a repository of research papers on Ukraine and the Russian invasion? It includes categories such as finance, sanctions, trade, agriculture, energy, labor markets, and governance. See our database: econ4ua.org/research-rep... #EconSky

📼 Journalists from Radio Liberty have released previously unseen surveillance footage showing Russian soldiers killing 70-year-old Volodymyr Rubailo on Yablunska Street in Kyiv Oblast’s town of Bucha on 4 March 2022. www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/202... #Ukraine #Russia #RussianWarCrimes

📊Working Paper No.1 The first comprehensive analysis of the economic value of US aid delivered to #Ukraine from 2022 to 2024. Carefully tracking and valuing aid deliveries, the authors find a total of $51.2 billion—a fraction of official figures, with a low budgetary impact. #EconSky Read more:

Please submit your papers to the series! #EconSky #UkrainianView #Ukraine

Forecasts of the cost of the war in #Ukraine pointed to stagflation for Ukraine and Russia, as well as similar but smaller effects in the rest of Eastern Europe. The total cost of the war is estimated to be $2.4 trillion. @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social, V Vasudevan cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Very important!

Great piece by Martin Wolf #UkrainianView

KQED Forum on #Ukraine's reconstruction The story about rebuilding #Irpin (including the role of the SF Bay Area) is most inspiring #UkrainianView www.kqed.org/forum/201010...

THU at 9AM: BBC reporter Zhanna Bezpiatchuk, Center for Innovation's Margie O'Driscoll, Stantec's Eugene Chumakov & UC Berkeley professor @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social on the challenges Ukraine faces as it seeks to rebuild while still at war. ❓ What Qs do you have about reconstruction in Ukraine?

Although the source and duration of the destruction differ, wars and natural disasters disrupt economies in similar ways. Shifrah Aron-Dine uses evidence from the impacts of Hurricane Maria to develop rebuilding policies applicable for #Ukraine. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

The single biggest source of oil tankers for Putin's shadow fleet is Greece (blue). That's an opportunity for the EU to grow, not sweep this under the rug. A proper investigation is needed to uncover how this happened. That'll strengthen the EU, not weaken it. @econharris.bsky.social @brookings.edu

Local optimum: do not touch Russian money Global optimum: seize Russian money & transfer it to #Ukraine #UkrainianView