An oil embargo that takes Iran's 2 mb/d off global markets spikes Brent by $10 per barrel if you make reasonable assumptions for the price elasticity of demand. As Brent has risen recently, some of this got priced, so I don't think we go much above $120... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-much-d...

Recommended read by @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social on Trumps deteriorating negotiations open.substack.com/pub/robinjbr...

Military escalation like taking Kharg Island means Iran will shut off oil exports. So it's an embargo. Better to try an actual embargo first, without military escalation. Brent at $115 prices significant disruption, so an embargo won't spike prices much... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/pros-and-c...

The danger for Turkey is always the same. The current government pushes growth way above the speed limit, which leads to a large current account deficit. Then a shock like high oil prices hits and things run out of control. We're at that point again... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/turkeys-hu...

Turkey's reserve losses rival March 2025 after the arrest of Ekrem İmamoğlu. They're up in the most recent data point only because the central bank used its gold to get access to more foreign exchange. In March 2025 this ended with devaluation. Same now... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/turkey-fal...

I'm starting a new weekly video every Saturday morning on markets and macro. The first episode was yesterday. I discussed why upside to oil is limited even if we embargo Iranian oil. Brent at $115 already prices significant disruption. You can watch here: robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/update-on-...

I support an embargo of Iranian oil. The reason is Russia. We never embargoed Russia. If we had, there's a good chance it wouldn't still be wreaking havoc in Ukraine. You just can't allow the life blood of these regimes to keep flowing. It doesn't work... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/embargo-iran

The Dollar downtrend has now been meaningfully disrupted. But that doesn't mean it's over. As soon as this war ends - and it must because of the midterms - Dollar weakness will reassert itself. EM commodity exporters like Brazil will then do really well... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-this-...

There's lots of misinformation at the moment, including the idea that big Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia are having to sell gold. Saudi Arabia's revenues from oil exports are actually up, because the rise in oil prices more than offsets lower volumes... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/do-the-sau...

A recurrent theme since war began is that central banks are selling gold. That's mostly not true, but there is one central bank that did. Turkey's gold holdings have fallen 50 tons in recent weeks. But Turkey is an outlier due to its unsustainable FX peg... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/are-centra...

The last time we had a supply shock and oil prices rose - in 2022 - Italy and Spain got the ECB to cap their yields to survive and the UK bond market blew up in the LDI crisis. If this war goes on, the same countries are vulnerable, plus Japan and France... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-this-...

Not all oil prices are created equal. There's only one that matters: what Americans pay at the pump. That price is up 30% from before the war (bottom right). That's up, but - at $4 a gallon - we're nowhere near $5 after Russia's Ukraine invasion in 2022... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/q-and-a-on...

On this morning's livestream, I discuss: (i) how much an embargo may raise oil prices further; (ii) why gold has fallen so much; (iii) what's up with long-term public debt yields spiking recently. I'll be doing these every Saturday morning going forward... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/update-on-...

The US' Achilles heel in this conflict - much as in the tariff confrontation with China a year ago - is financial markets. Those are flashing red as uncertainty mounts. We have lots of skeletons in the closet in private credit. That's our main vulnerability. robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/financial-...

I'm doing a livestream this morning at 9 am (ET) on how much an oil embargo might spike prices, what's behind the fall in precious metals and how long-term bond yields are rising all over the place, the result of high debt levels amid huge uncertainty... open.substack.com/live-stream/...

Many are attributing the fall in precious metals to rising real interest rates. That's wrong. Real rates (red) have fallen. The rise in nominal interest rates (black) is all about break-even inflation (blue) rising. That's fundamentally good for gold... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-have-p...

An oil embargo of Iran strikes many as crazy, but it's far better than any military escalation and will cause Iran's economy to implode. As Brent has risen back to $115, an embargo is increasingly priced, so upside to oil prices from an embargo is limited... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/pros-and-c...

Many things are happening simultaneously. War in the Middle East is spiking oil prices, gold has fallen and all the uncertainty is pushing up long-term bond yields, like in Japan where they're back to the highs. I'll talk about all this at 9 am (ET) today... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/markets-af...

Quoi ???

Indeed. The Wurst is full of passionate intensity.* * I am aware this is one of my go -to multiple use ones, but in this particular instance, I would like to thank Robin for serving up the opportunity for a banger.

Consistently the world's top 5 most romantic cuisines: 1. Germany (see photo) 2. Sweden 3. Poland 4. Italy 5. UK

I'm going to start doing a weekly livestream on Saturday mornings at 9 am (ET). Tomorrow will kick things off with a discussion of: (i) impact of an Iran embargo on oil prices; (ii) what's going on with gold and precious metals; (iii) long-term public debt yields... open.substack.com/live-stream/...

Supply shocks are bad news for high debt countries. They force central banks to hike interest rates, which pushes up long-term bond yields. In 2022, during the post-COVID inflation shock, Italy and Spain needed ECB bailouts and the UK had the LDI blow-up... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-this-...

This week's rise in Brent back to $110 prices rising odds of an Iran oil embargo. That's good, because it means that any actual announcement of such an embargo will spike prices less. My best guess is that we stay below $120 on an embargo of Iranian oil... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/embargo-iran

We need to embargo Iranian oil to end this war. Biggest risk from that isn't catastrophically higher oil prices, but vulnerabilities in US financial markets due to the basis trade in the Treasury market and private credit. Those are our big weak spots... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/financial-...

Biggest pushback to an embargo is that oil prices may rise further. An embargo shuts in Iran's 2 mmb/d, which means Brent rises a further 13% for reasonable elasticities. With Brent at $110, some of that's already priced. $150 or $200 oil aren't happening... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/pros-and-c...

My favourite in this week’s issue: England has shown the world how to replace farm subsidies Important for the EU bubble to study. economist.com/leaders/2026...

Zipf’s law drives anyone who thinks too much about it into gibbering madness

While everyone is focused on an Iran oil embargo, Ukraine is embargoing Russian oil in the Baltic. If Iran can close the Strait with drones, then Ukraine can certainly shut down Russia's ports in the Baltic. Ukraine is now doing what the EU should have done in 2022... www.reuters.com/world/blaze-...

If you're interested in what an Iran oil embargo means, how it would work, how it would be enforced, how high oil prices might rise as a result, what would happen to Iran's economy, I discussed all this with @pkrugman.bsky.social in his podcast last week, which is here: substack.com/home/post/p-...

Key mistake the West made after Putin's invasion of Ukraine was not to embargo Russian oil. The result is that - more than 4 years later - Russia is still waging war with appalling loss of life. A short, sharp shock is better than an interminable one... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/is-there-a...

Key mistake the West made after Putin's invasion of Ukraine was not to embargo Russian oil. The result is that - more than 4 years later - Russia is still waging war with appalling loss of life. A short, sharp shock is better than an interminable one... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/is-there-a...

Key pushback to a blockade is that it might spike oil prices. Iran's 2 million barrels per day could spike oil prices by 20% if they go offline, but - with Brent already up 60% from before the war - some of that's already priced. That favors a blockade... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-high-w...

Best off-ramp for this war is to embargo Iran's oil. At $110, oil prices already price a meaningful probability that Iran's 2.5 million barrels per day get interrupted. So risk of a big spike in oil prices is manageable, while Iran's economy would implode... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/embargo-iran

The Saudis are lobbying the US for war to continue. On the surface, they want Iran to be properly defeated, but there's another reason. They're making lots more money now than before the war, even with somewhat lower export volumes thanks to high prices... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/do-the-sau...

Financial markets started to look worrying towards the end of last week, which may explain Trump's climb-down on Iran. They're still looking stressed now, which may mean the US will keep trying to declare "mission accomplished" when it obviously isn't... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/financial-...

After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, oil prices rose, which scared Western politicians and kept them from embargoing Russia. It's the same now for Iran. This is the perfect scenario for the Brazilian Real, which should now take off. Prime time for Brazil. robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/prime-time...

Iran is a gas station masquerading as an Islamic Republic. We should shut it down with an embargo. It’s absurd Iranian oil is flowing but other oil out of the Gulf is blockaded. I was on @cnbc.com with Chery Kang and Martin Soong last night on how an embargo would work. www.cnbc.com/video/2026/0...

Does Iran have any incentive to make a deal without major concessions from the US? I don't think so. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz gives Iran huge leverage. Trump may have unleashed the perfect nightmare for himself and the Republicans in November... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/is-this-wh...

Why has gold tumbled? Two reasons: (i) the big rally pre-war sucked in lots of retail investors who're more skittish than the previous buyer base; (ii) volatility has meant hedge funds had margin calls, so sold profitable positions like gold to free up cash. robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-have-p...

We go to war and end up getting embargoed by Iran, which is now charging protection fees for oil tankers to go through the Strait of Hormuz. That's nuts. If Iran can embargo us with a couple of drones, we can obviously do the same to them. Embargo Iran... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/embargo-iran

Our book is finally here!! Oli Coibion @empctmacrotx.bsky.social & me with our advance copies Grateful to everyone who helped along the way—colleagues, students, coauthors, & early readers who shaped the project at every stage Official release tomorrow! tinyurl.com/385ak89u #EconSky

I talked with @kairyssdal.bsky.social on @marketplace.org yesterday about what's going on with oil prices after the latest switcheroo in the conflict with Iran. I don't think this war is over by a long shot, so I doubt we're headed back to $60 oil any time soon... www.marketplace.org/episode/2026...

Apocalyptic oil forecasts of $150 or $200 assume either very low price elasticities of demand - not backed up in the academic literature - or catastrophic escalation of the war back to near total closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Yesterday was a reminder... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-high-w...

The oil price is a combination of two things: (i) a physical shortage of oil in the here and now; and (ii) expectations for how long this conflict lasts. The latter channel is by far the more important one in driving prices, as yesterday's price action shows robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-can-m...

President Trump has a habit of initiating conflict, escalating it wildly, then - when things spin out of control - backing down with nothing gained. That's what happened with Iran over the past weekend and with China in April 2025. The art of the non-deal... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/is-this-wh...

Brent is down below $100. @hettena.bsky.social and I just finished a podcast on oil and where to from here. I've been pushing back on the idea that Brent is heading for $150 or $200 for various reason, including the risk of a Trump TACO. And here we are... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/reschedule...

At the height of the tariff stand-off with China in April 2025, Trump was essentially negotiating with himself - threatening escalation and then pulling back - while China stayed silent. We're at that stage now on Iran. China won the 2025 stand-off... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-high-w...

Brent is down to $100. The latest de-escalation signal is worth about as much as the escalation signal Saturday night, but - underneath all that - it's clear that high oil prices scare this administration as much as they scared the Biden administration... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/financial-...

In this podcast conversation with @pkrugman.bsky.social from last week, we debate my view that oil prices are near their peak because large risk premia have been priced into oil that embed substantially reduced tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Watch here: substack.com/home/post/p-...