Once again I see it exactly the same!

The EU's 20th sanctions package bans Western oil tankers from transporting Russian oil. In the Baltic, such ships are now only 15% of capacity, so the 20th package - like previous ones - dodges the hard stuff. It's the shadow fleet that must be shut down... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/das-recht-...

If Japan really wans to stop the Yen from falling, what needs to be done is simple. The BoJ is currently buying ¥3 trillion in Japanese gov't bonds every month. That keeps yields artificially low and puts depreciation pressure on the Yen. That has to stop... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/five-chart...

The best leading indicator for Dollar direction is how it trades against EM. The Dollar bounced back a bit since the Warsh nomination, but this was vs the G10 (blue). It remains near its lows vs EM (black). This is a sign more Dollar weakness is coming... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-dollar...

China survived last year's US tariff onslaught, but there's nothing brilliant or heroic about how it did that. It simply flooded the rest of the world with an endless stream of discounted goods. Chinese mercantilism just turned away from the US to others... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-not-to...

The Euro has to end. Poland doesn't want to join, so we're left taking places like Bulgaria, where it's unclear if it's actually aligned with Western Europe. Just look at Bulgaria's imports from China, which are going through the roof. The Euro is broken... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-euro-b...

The UK had a bad fiscal crisis in 2022, but - unlike Japan - it has been able to stabilize the Pound. How did it do that? There's no mystery. It allowed yields to rise freely, while Japan uses the BoJ cap them. As long as that happens, the Yen will fall... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-does-...

The Dollar versus EM (black) has been a much better leading indicator than the Dollar versus the G10 (blue). It began to signal meaningful Dollar weakness after the Fed's last cut on December 10 and continues to suggest that the Dollar will fall further... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/is-the-dol...

円安は明日の選挙に向けて高市氏にとって政治的な負担となる。これが、選挙前に円を安定させようとする冷笑的な試みだった最近の介入論の根拠となっている。選挙が終われば、円は再び下落するだろう

In 2023, Erdogan kept Turkish Lira artificially strong until the May 28 election. On May 29, Turkish Lira collapsed. It's depressing to see Japan to fall into this kind of manipulation. All the recent intervention talk has been cynical electioneering... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/five-chart...

The weak Yen is a political liability for Takaichi into tomorrow's election. This explains recent intervention talk, which was a cynical attempt to stabilize the Yen before the election. Once the election is out of the way, the Yen will resume its fall... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/five-chart...

The Warsh nomination caused the Dollar to rebound a week ago today. The Dollar has held those gains, even though rate differentials are now starting to move in a serious way against the Dollar. Lots of arguments for more Dollar weakness are stacking up... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-kevin...

US tariffs had the potential to cause large disruptions to global supply chains, but that didn't happen. Unlike COVID, delivery times remained totally normal (black) and it's only on the inflation front that we're seeing a modest uptick in the US (blue)... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/supply-cha...

US tariffs had the potential to cause large disruptions to global supply chains, but that didn't happen. Unlike COVID, delivery times remained totally normal (black) and it's only on the inflation front that we're seeing a modest uptick in the US (blue)... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/supply-cha...

Blot til almindelig oplysning. Størstedelen af den russiske olie passerer mellem Samsø og Sjællands Odde. Under Storebæltsbroen. Det undrer mig stadig hvorfor hvert eneste skib ikke bliver opbragt og undersøgt. #Marinetraffic #Shadowfleet #Russia

‘Japan’s policy makers need to stop battling symptoms like Yen depreciation or yield spikes and focus instead on confronting the underlying problem, which is the public debt overhang.’ robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/japans-fx-... by @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social

On Monday, I put out this chart pack to track market fallout from the Warsh nomination. Since then, the Dollar is stable (lhs) and the only sustained move has been for the US yield curve to steepen (rhs). More upward pressure on global longer-term yields... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/five-chart...

Japan is trapped between preventing a fiscal crisis, which requires JGB yield caps, and Yen devaluation, which will only stop if yields are allowed to rise freely. Only way out from this trap is for the government to sell financial assets and pay down debt. robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/japans-fx-...

Together with @econharris.bsky.social from @brookings.edu and Harold Koh from @yalelawschool-yls.bsky.social, we have a new proposal released yesterday for how Europe can clamp down on Russia's shadow fleet of oil tankers. This is Putin's Achilles heel... www.brookings.edu/articles/sti...

The Dollar is already resuming its slide. The recent rebound was built on sand and is ending as markets realize that this was just a temporary blip based on a few upside data surprises. Markets will refocus on Dollar weakness ahead. Key charts to watch: robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/five-chart...

Only reason the Dollar has rebounded recently is that we got positive data surprises, first for the Chicago PMI on Friday (lhs) and then for the ISM on Monday (rhs). Data surprises can't and won't sustainably boost USD and it's already resumed its slide... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/is-the-dol...

Japan's 10-year government bond yield is 2.3% (blue), but its 10y10y forward yield (orange) is already at 4.6%. That's what markets price for 10-year yield in 10 years' time and would make Japan's debt unsustainable. Japan is in a de facto debt crisis... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debt-crisi...

Japan's FX interventions never work. That's true once again now as $/JPY heads back to where it was before the NY Fed "rate check." What's even worse about the latest episode is that it's so political, seeing as it comes just before the Feb. 8 election... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/japans-fx-...

Gold rose 6% yesterday. There's no telling if this marks the end of the sell-off, but my gut is that debasement fears are much greater than most people realize. As crazy as the precious metals bubble already is, things are likely to get a lot crazier... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/does-frida...

The world's largest economies all run budget deficits that are way larger than before COVID. This is true for the US (top left), but it's also true for Canada (top right), Euro zone (bottom left) and UK (bottom right). Fiscal policy has become unmoored... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-reckl...

Fiscal policy became unmoored after COVID. Deficits are way wider than they were before the pandemic, on top of already very high public debt all over the place. There are exceptions. Sweden has fiscal policy under control, which has made it a safe haven... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-reckl...

The history of Japan's FX intervention is that it has never worked. Not once. Ever. That's again true now. Today's strong ISM has single-handedly unwound half the drop in $/JPY after the NY Fed's rate check. Only higher JGB yields can stabilize the Yen... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/japans-fx-...

Silver is now down 31% since its peak after last week's Fed meeting. The scale of the precious metals rally of recent weeks has been so nuts that this takes us back only to where silver was on Jan 9. Silver is still up 110% since Jackson Hole on Aug 22... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/does-frida...

The 2-year Treasury yield fell after the Kevin Warsh news early on Friday, but today's strong ISM has blown that fall out of the water and we're right back where we started. Markets are trading strong US data for now, not bigger-than-expected rate cuts... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/five-chart...

Gold is still falling today, but the pace of its drop is slowing. We're down 12% from last week's peak, but the sharp drop only takes gold back to where it was on Jan. 20. Underlying driver for the debasement trade - bad fiscal policy - remains in place... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/does-frida...

I hear all the time the argument that Japanese yields have risen a lot, so the Yen is undervalued. If that were true, why has the Yen kept falling even as yields have risen massively? Truth is that Japanese yields are still much too low given high debt... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-road-t...

The Japanese Yen has resumed its decline. Intervention can't hide the fact that - as long as the BoJ is buying JGBs to cap long-term yields - depreciation pressure on the Yen will remain. JGB yields need to be much higher to stop the fall in the Yen... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-is-the...

Friday's precious metals crash created the mistaken impression that Kevin Warsh will be hawkish. He can't and won't be. In fact, Warsh's worst nightmare is for Trump to turn on him like he turned on Powell. Only way to avoid that is to cut early and hard... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/five-chart...

The saying goes that "there are no atheists in foxholes." Maybe Kevin Warsh is a balance sheet hawk, but - when push comes to shove and markets are collapsing - he'll do QE just like everyone else. We are trapped and the debasement trade will keep going... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/does-frida...

Lots of focus on Kevin Warsh being a balance sheet hawk. That's a red herring. What matters is fiscal policy. We're running 6-7% of GDP deficits in a non-crisis time. That's pushing up long-term yields and makes political pressure on the Fed unavoidable... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-kevin...

Does Friday's silver crash end the debasement trade? No. Friday's crash was inevitable after the crazy run-up in recent weeks. Signal to watch is rate markets. 2-year Treasury yield fell after the Kevin Warsh news. That's bullish for the debasement trade... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/does-frida...

Silver fell 26% yesterday. That sounds apocalyptic, but that only takes silver back to January 12, i.e. it only erases 2 weeks worth of gains. That's testament to how nuts the precious metals rally got lately, but also to how massive the debasement trade is. robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-we-kn...

Sweden has consistently argued for tough sanctions on Russia, which is more than can be said for many other EU countries. So I'm beyond proud to be organizing this event on Russia sanctions at Sweden's embassy in Berlin on Tuesday. Join the live stream... www.kielinstitut.de/events/sanct...

A falling Dollar isn't bad for Treasuries. It's good. Foreign central banks in EM always buy more Treasuries when the Dollar is weak and it'll be the same now. Treasury market wobbles in April 2025 stemmed from a sharp rise in the Dollar versus EM (black)... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-fallin...

The biggest risk for Warsh is that Trump turns on him the way he did on Powell. The best way to mitigate that risk is to use the high productivity, low inflation narrative to cut rates early and aggressively. That helps keep Trump quiet into the midterms... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/q-and-a-on...

Yesterday's rise in the Dollar and the big crash in precious metals is fooling many into thinking that markets see Warsh as a hawk. They don't. Here's the 2-year yield, which fell steadily after the 6:48 am Truth Social post. Warsh will cut early and hard... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-kevin...

Yesterday's rise in the Dollar came after a big upside surprise to the Chicago PMI at 9:45 am. The Dollar did nothing after the official Truth Social post at 6:48 am. So the rise in USD wasn't about Warsh. We're still heading for Dollar weakness in 2026... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-kevin...

Huge correction in precious metals today. Silver is down -27% and gold is down -10%, making the correction in Oct. '25 during the IMF/WB meetings look like kindergarten. The debasement trade is going to be around for a long time, so my best guess is this correction - like October - won't last long.

The Dollar is up about 1% today. News about Warsh broke at 6:48 am, but the Dollar didn't start rallying until around 9:50 am, right after a big upside surprise on the Chicago PMI (at 9:45 am). So a lot of the Dollar rally today isn't really about Warsh. It's really about optimism on the economy...

Markets price 50 basis points in Fed cuts through end-2027. A hawk like Kevin Warsh makes it easier to build consensus on the FOMC around a high productivity, low inflation narrative, so we're almost sure to get more cuts. That's why the Dollar is heavy... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/five-chart...

The Trump risk premium in Treasuries is at the very long end of the curve. The 10y10y forward yield has been on a continuous rise since Trump took office (red). This isn't something Kevin Warsh - a good candidate for Fed Chair - will be able to eliminate... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/do-markets...

Kevin Warsh is a really good pick for Fed Chair and known as a hawk. But markets are asking themselves what was promised to get the nod, which is why the Dollar - after its huge decline in recent days - isn't managing to rally on what should be good news... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/q-and-a-on...

We're getting a slew of good news for the Dollar in recent days, including the news that Kevin Warsh is Trump's pick for Fed chair. But the Dollar is only managing to tread water, when it should rise after its recent sharp fall. Real damage has been done... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-dollar...

There's a lot of talk that the falling Dollar could hurt the US Treasury market. That's wrong. Historically, a weak Dollar means foreign central banks intervene more and buy more Treasuries. That pushes down yields. This was Greenspan's "conundrum" in 2005. robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-fallin...

My predictions for 2026 were for the Dollar to fall and the debasement trade to roar. That's happening. The Fed is an inadvertent catalyst. Jackson Hole on Aug. 22 started the precious metals rally and every Fed meeting since is adding fuel to the fire... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/prediction...