The Swedish Krona has always been highly volatile, cyclical and anything but a safe haven currency. But the debasement trade is changing that. The Krona has the highest correlation with gold (blue) and silver (red) moves across all of the G10 currencies... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-curre...

Japan is facing a debt implosion. Its 10-year government bond yield is 2.1% (blue), but markets price that same yield to be 4.3% in 20 years' time (red). That kind of yield level is completely unsustainable for Japan and is why the Yen is falling so much... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/japans-deb...

Germany is in shock at this year's massive rise in its long-term government bond yields. The hard truth is that even Germany's fiscal space is finite. Last week's decision to issue more joint EU debt instead of using Russian money will only make this worse. robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/germany-lo...

The spike in Japan's long-term yields and devaluation of the Yen aren't happening in isolation, but amid an insane rally in precious metals. Silver is now up 80% since Jackson Hole on Aug. 22! A profound loss of confidence in fiat currencies is underway... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/japans-yen...

Gold (pictured) and silver are today making new all-time highs. There can now be no doubt that the "debasement trade" is real and huge. Fiscal policy is unsustainable in so many countries and markets - understandably - fear that debt will be inflated away... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-debase...

Once again Robin is right 👍 France is doing weak as well!

Silver prices (XAG/$) are now up 76% since the Fed's Jackson Hole meeting on August 22. There's been lots of doubt whether the debasement trade is real or not, but - at this point - there can be no doubt that this thing is real and it's absolutely massive. A flight out of fiat currencies....

There's absolutely no reason that Japan should be teetering on the brink of a debt crisis. The government has over 100% of GDP in financial assets that can be sold to bring public debt down from 240 to 130% percent. That's still high but more manageable... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-japan-...

Germany needs to stop giving away its fiscal space for free. It's doing that with aid for Ukraine, where it allows other EU countries to freeride and they then have nothing better to do than block the use of Russian reserves. This nonsense has to stop... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/europe-nee...

Meloni, Sánchez and Macron felt empowered to undercut Merz on Russia's frozen reserves because they don't fear debt default thanks to German fiscal space. Germany must stop giving away its fiscal space for free. Time to lay down the law with Pax Germanica... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/europe-nee...

There is a way for Japan to escape its debt trap. Japan's gross government debt is 240% of GDP, but net debt is only 130%. The difference is lots of financial assets the government owns. Those need to be sold and used to buy back debt. It's the only way... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-japan-...

Only reason joint EU debt issuance works: Germany makes its fiscal space available without demanding anything in return. No wonder Italy and France think it's better than Russia's money. It's free and you don't have Putin leering at you. That must change! robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-german...

German long-term gov't bond yields just rose to their highest level in 15 years. This is completely unnecessary. The EU should have used Russian money for Ukraine, but Italy and France rammed through more joint EU debt issuance. With friends like these... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/germanys-l...

The Japanese Yen (black) is now almost as weak as Turkish Lira (blue), the world's poster boy for chronic currency mismanagement. The Yen will keep falling as long as Japan stays in denial on its debt. Things will have to get worse before they get better... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/japans-yen...

Italy and France are high-fiving each other because they pushed through more joint EU debt issuance for Ukraine instead of using Russian money. This further damages Merz and gives another boost to the AfD. The political apocalypse in Germany is coming... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-politi...

The Yen this week fell sharply after the Bank of Japan hiked its policy rate. That's an alarming signal. Japan is in a debt crisis. The way out is to cut spending, hike taxes and sell government assets. If that doesn't happen, Yen debasement will continue... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/japans-deb...

When you're highly indebted, strategic decision making goes out the window. The EU should have used Russian money for Ukraine this week. It didn't because Italy and France want more joint EU debt issuance to soften up their own debt constraint. Putin wins... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-a-glo...

Today marks a new all-time high for Japan's 30-year government bond yield. The fact that the Yen is tumbling at the same time tells you that yields are nowhere near "market" levels. Japan is still artificially capping yields and in denial on its debt... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/japanese-d...

Today is one of those days that shines a light on people's true intentions. Global long-term yields (red) are rising very sharply. If you're European and think issuing more debt into this is something to celebrate - instead of using Russian money - you don't have Europe's best interest at heart...

This is a dark day for Europe. The precedent the EU needed to set was to use Russian money for Ukraine. That didn't happen. To make matters worse, joint EU debt issuance perpetuates broken governance and bad fiscal policy in the high-debt South. Really bad. robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/a-dark-day...

#Europe #EU The Principal-Agent Problem at the ECB The incentive structure at the ECB has become distorted and favors high-debt countries robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-princi...

Gemeinsam Kredite aufzunehmen, um RUS Reserven zu schützen, ist eine Katastrophe. Es ist eine 😣 Allianz zwischen #Putin ´s Handlangern und hochverschuldeten #EU Ländern, die jede Gelegenheit nutzen, um Schulden zu föderalisieren. Dieser Unsinn endet erst, wenn #Deutschland aus dem Euro austritt...

The decision to jointly borrow to protect Russia's reserves is a disaster. This reflects an unholy alliance between Putin's henchmen and high-debt countries who seek every opportunity to federalize debt. This nonsense only ends when Germany exits the Euro... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-german...

One of the greatest things about the US is its incredible data, which are available at high frequency and in great detail. But here we are. There's essentially no CPI data for October and the November data point looks highly suspect. Banana Republic USA... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/banana-rep...

Great article in the @washtimes.bsky.social, picking up on the keynote by 2024 Nobel Prize winner @simonhrjohnson.bsky.social at this week's @brookings.edu event on Russia sanctions I hosted with @econharris.bsky.social. Enforcement of sanctions was too weak. www.washingtontimes.com/news/2025/de...

A volte una semplice domanda illumina più di tanti sproloqui: se gli Usa possono sequestrare una petroliera del Venezuela, perché non possono fare altrettanto con una petroliera russa? (risposta: perché Putin sennò si offende, quel permaloso)

Many of us feel like we're flying blind because the government shutdown messed up so much data. Today's CPI print is a case in point. Chart is the combined weight of items in the CPI with y/y inflation > 2%. That crashed to the lowest level since Aug. 2020. Is that possible? Yes. Is it likely? No!

Great quote by @whitehouse.senate.gov from this week's @brookings.edu event on Russia sanctions: "If they can seize a Venezuelan oil tanker, why can't they also seize a Russian one?" Huge thanks to Senator Whitehouse for opening our event. With @econharris.bsky.social www.kyivpost.com/post/66384

The Dollar looks stable on the surface, but that picture is deceptive. The only reason the Dollar looks stable is because the Yen has been falling so much, which has been offsetting Dollar weakness against most other currencies. Take the Yen out and the Dollar is falling (blue)...

Germany keeps playing chess against itself in Europe. Only reason Meloni can torpedo a deal on Russia's reserves is because Germany allows the ECB to cap Italy's yields. Europe's dysfunction starts and ends with the ECB. Time for Germany to say what's what. robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-euro-b...

One puzzling thing about the debasement trade is that the Dollar looks stable even as precious metals are going through the roof. But the only reason the Dollar looks stable is because the Yen (blue) is tanking. Adjust for that and the Dollar is falling... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-crazy-...

A key feature of the crazy precious metals bubble is that the Dollar has been stable (blue). But that picture is deceptive. The Dollar only looks stable because Japan's Yen is tanking. Take the Yen out and the Dollar is falling. King Dollar is in trouble... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-dollar...

For all policy makers who think more debt is the answer to every problem, this chart is the ultimate wake-up call. You may think more debt is the answer, but investors have stopped believing that. Markets are exiting fiat currencies into precious metals... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-crazy-...

The IMF/WB annual meetings mid-October ended the massive rally in gold that had been going ever since the Fed's dovish Jackson Hole meeting on August 22. Now gold prices are almost back to their October highs. The "debasement trade" will be strong in 2026... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/is-this-th...

Here's the replay of yesterday's @brookings.edu event on Russia sanctions. The event kicked off with opening remarks by @whitehouse.senate.gov and featured a keynote by 2024 Nobel @simonhrjohnson.bsky.social on lessons to learn from four years of Russia sanctions... www.brookings.edu/events/asses...

I was deeply moved and inspired by yesterday's @brookings.edu panel discussion on Russia sanctions with 4 European ambassadors. In the photo (from left to right) are @econharris.bsky.social who moderated with ambassadors from Sweden, UK, EU and Lithuania. robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/europes-fi...

Beyond excited for @mitsloan.bsky.social's @simonhrjohnson.bsky.social and winner of the 2024 Nobel for economics to give the keynote on lessons we must learn from 4 years of Russia sanctions at today's @brookings.edu event I organized with @econharris.bsky.social: www.brookings.edu/events/asses...

There's no doubt China's Yuan is at least 20% undervalued. After all, it's fallen 20% in real effective terms in the past 2 years, while the trade surplus has soared. But China won't allow the Yuan to rise in any meaningful way. China is hooked on exports... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/chinas-mas...

Argentina has backed itself into the same corner it always ends up in: an economy that struggles under the weight of an overvalued Peso (red), even as the government says there is no overvaluation. What a waste of time and energy for an amazing country... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-argent...

All eyes are on Russia's frozen FX reserves and peace negotiations, but while that's happening, Putin is getting crushed by global oil markets. Brent (black) just fell below $60 per barrel, a first since 2021, and Rosneft and Lukoil sanctions by the US are crushing the Urals oil price (blue)...

There's something about the Fed and precious metals prices. Jackson Hole on August 22 was the beginning of the crazy rally in gold. Last week's latest rate cut by the Fed has sent silver and other precious metals prices soaring. The debasement trade lives. robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-crazy-...

I don’t always agree w Robin, but he’s 100% right on this one.

During Argentina's 2019 crisis, capital flight out of the country was $15 bn. Ahead of the election on October 26, capital flight was $30 bn. When will Argentina stop doing this to itself? None of this would happen if the Peso were just allowed to float... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/capital-fl...

US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil have sharply widened the discount on Urals crude from $11 per barrel to $22. That's a big hit to Putin and his war machine. Europe needs to stop obsessing over the NSS. Actions speak louder than words and the US is acting. @econharris.bsky.social @brookings.edu

We're hosting a @brookings.edu event on Russia sanctions and lessons to be learned tomorrow, December 16, from 10:15 am to noon. Speakers include @whitehouse.senate.gov, @simonhrjohnson.bsky.social, 4 ambassadors from Europe and @econharris.bsky.social. Join here: www.brookings.edu/events/asses...

Milei had a golden opportunity to float the Peso after the election. He didn't take it, fearing a big devaluation. Argentina is trapped watching the same movie over and over. The movie always ends with explosive devaluation. A country in collective delusion. robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-argent...

Back in September and October, the crazy bubble in precious metals was reaching a frenzy. At the time, I signaled two things: (i) the IMF/WB annual meetings mid-October would be a catalyst for pullback; (ii) the debasement trade would come back big-time... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-precio...

New all-time high for silver today. The debasement trade is a shape shifter. Right after Jackson Hole, it piled into gold and now it's doing the same with silver. This is all deeply irrational and driven by the fear that governments will inflate away debt... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-we-kn...

There's a growing number of people who say that the erosion of institutional quality across the G10 - things like loss of central bank independence - makes EM look more attractive. Non-resident flows into EM stocks and bonds have certainly been strong... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/is-trump-g...

Now do this with Russian uranium. (Don't hold your breath. We won't.)