Thing is I can’t see him telling the US military to stand down unless the Iranians agree implicitly or explicitly to open up the Hormuz strait.

Maybe it just came from nowhere, but for sure no one told him Iran had Tomahawks.

Remember, he’s v v ignorant and v v stupid. My guess is he was told by some military advisor that Iran has land-attack cruise missiles.

To me that’s the big takeaway from the presser: very hard to see how he doesn’t go after Cuba before November (and probably much sooner). Watch to see if sticks to a “bend the knee” only protect or (w Marco) does the Full Monte on regime change. Guessing in this case it will be the latter.

Totally fake news, but as always with Trump it’s unclear if he believes the stuff he makes up. My take is that part of his mental illness is he almost always does — “if it came out of my mouth, it’s true.”

Ofc reality and Trump claims wld be entirely different, but a true part wld be major degrading of Iran’s nuclear program and esp its conventional capabilities. Won’t mean either wld be entirely destroyed ofc, esp conventional. If ceasefire I’d expect Iran to focus on drones, less ballistic missiles.

More on this. Pretty sure it’s going turn out to be clear based on verifiable photographic evidence re serial number and/or technical details that it was a US missile. If so, I’m v v doubtful that the school was targeted deliberately. Aside from US military culture, what wld be the reason?

Great how Europe is redeploying some of its best equipment away from Russia to deal with a crisis created by our "security guarantor."

IMO it’s tricky assessing how much RU is helped by price surge. Aside from the how high and how long ?s, there is how much US relief, EUR+ sanctions including price caps and shadow fleet pressure, RU refined exports limited by UKR strikes/RU demand, RU refined imports. Just those that come to mind.

Agree but, at least in November, IMO there’s a threshold beyond which cheating won’t matter. Normally, Dems have to win overall by 1-3 nationally % points to win the House bc of gerrymandering etc. May be somewhat higher now, but my guess is the GOP is going to lose by more than the threshold. 🤞🤞🤞

Evidence Trump administration is looking for an exit ramp.

Poland’s electricity operator detected a suspicious disruption in late December when several solar power stations suddenly disconnected from the grid despite continuing to generate power.

Sounds right. My guess — stress on guess bc, well, it’s Trump — isTrump takes the “mission accomplished, we’ve destroyed their xxx, we can stop” exit ramp within a month given the stocks & oil problems. But like last time, won’t mean he won’t order strikes again, eg w more abundant gravity bombs.

Iran launched another ballistic missile at Turkey, and it was shot down by NATO air defense. www.msb.gov.tr/SlaytHaber/0...

Smart thing to do. See trade and comparative advantage.

Thread. NB: “He did not specify whether French ships might try lift the “blockade” of the straits of Hormuz – but this is thought to be unlikely.”

Suffice it to say no sign Teheran is preparing to bend the knee.

Trump’s massive miscalculation on Iran is going to hit hard. The NYT spoke to US officials who say Iran is fighting back more effectively than the Trump administration expected, with stronger military capability and continuing attacks on US targets. More American casualties are likely, they say.

NEW: The State Dept. has ordered diplomats in Saudi Arabia to leave. It's the first mandatory ordered departure issued by the agency during the US-Israel war on Iran, and indicates US officials fear more violence. Iranian drones hit the embassy in Riyadh. Gift link: www.nytimes.com/2026/03/08/w...

Thread. NB: “The US is the only participant in the war that is known to have Tomahawk missiles. Israel is not known to have Tomahawk missiles.”

New video footage shows a US Tomahawk missile hitting an IRGC facility in Minab, Iran, on Feb 28, showing for the first time that the US struck the area. The footage also shows smoke already rising from the vicinity of the girls’ school, where 175 people were reportedly killed, including children.

Iran fires Shaheds at the Gulf. UAE orders 5,000 Ukrainian interceptors, Qatar 2,000. TAF founder: "It's not enough to have something like a Patriot." Kyiv produces 1,500+ interceptors daily — double its own needs. Only obstacle: pilot training takes months. 🔗 euromaidanpress.com/2026/03/08/t...

FEDWATCH: Oil-shock inflation “prevents the Fed from responding to worsening employment conditions .. an adversely tightening policy which could strain credit and put at risk 1 to 2 million jobs created by private credit, according to the Fed’s own estimates.” 👀

More evidence passenger trains have moved up RU’s target list. Expect more of this as spring arrives and RU changes tactics for wearing down the UKR public.

Add the Kurds and takeaway is huge amount of uncertainty abt not just long term political objectives but also a hort term military ones.

Suggests that Iranian unity of command is, well, not united in light of Pezeshkian’s “apology” and instructions to cease targeting neighbors.

❗️The UAE struck an Iranian desalination plant in response to ongoing Iranian attacks, Ynet reported. Israel assesses the strike as a warning signal, with fuller UAE involvement possible if Iranian attacks escalate. #Iran

Trump, as feared, appears to have shifted from a long-standing hesitancy to use military force to a full-on and reckless embrace of it. Ominous IMO for what happens downfield on the US domestic front.

See the linked letter from 14 Baltic and North Sea region states. NB: “… we require that all vessels exercising freedom of navigation strictly comply with applicable international law, whether customary international law or as contracting parties to international conventions…”

Well that’s pretty amazing. Believe there were at least 18 deaths from the extreme and prolonged cold spells in NYC this winter.

Thread. NB: “Taiwan should in any case be producing lots of drones.” Yup, and sooner rather than later.

I’d say big winner on the financial front. IMO too soon to say overall—if the war goes badly for the US, and especially if it turns into another forever war, then (probably) big winner overall. It is seeing another important partner getting pounded (after Syria and Venezuela, w Cuba in crosshairs).

We already know the winner in the war with Iran and that's Russia. The closure of the Straits of Hormuz has swung Russian crude from pariah to prized commodity. Urals oil price is the highest since right after the Ukraine invasion. Putin is loving this... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/markets-in...

❗A UAE senior official denied to the Jerusalem Post that the country struck an Iranian desalination facility. The IDF also denied involvement. #UAE

❗️The first Ukrainian military personnel and experts will head to the Middle East tomorrow to train Persian Gulf countries on how to shoot down drones, – Zelenskyy.

The IDF has restarted bombing operations in Beirut. Fresh images from the Lebanese capital shows smoke after airstrikes. The IDF earlier ordered a full evacuation of the southern part of Beirut due to future airstrikes. #Israel

“Antisocial personality disorder, [aka] sociopathy, is a mental health condition in which a person consistently shows no regard for right and wrong and ignores the rights and feelings of others.. purposely make others angry or upset and manipulate or treat others harshly or with cruel indifference.”

❗️The UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait have submitted requests to purchase interceptor drones from the Ukrainian company TAF Industries. The UAE has requested 5,000 drones, Qatar — 2,000, while Kuwait has also expressed interest in acquiring such systems.

Multiple news outlets are reporting a US attack on an Iranian #desalination plant. If verified, this violates international law protecting #water systems during wars, and it sets a dangerous precedent, given intense dependence of Gulf countries on desalination. timesofoman.com/article/1691...

More on this.

This is better than sending in naval escorts for tanker traffic close to Iran's shores. Escorts are not necessary and would needlessly expose US surface and air forces to risk of Iranian attack. www.ft.com/content/d1d6...

20/ Even before this ruling landed, Russian advertisers have been fleeing Telegram. This has already caused a collapse in advertising revenue for Russian warbloggers' channels and fundraising efforts for the army. /end bsky.app/profile/chri...

Thread. NB: “Production capacity already exceeds the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine…” But it also makes sense if UKR is able to leverage these sales for weapons it needs from its partners, notably the US.

Thread. My dad was a US diplomat. Breaks my heart. “Whatever happens, even miraculous Venezuela-like stability in Iran and/or Cuba, the end of US diplomacy as we knew it weakens the US. Diplomacy is a tool of power, we had the best, and we blew it up deliberately.“

Worth considering

Ukraine used 700 Patriot missiles in four winter months. The Middle East burned through 800 in three days. "Americans won't be able to provide enough for everyone," EU defense chief Kubilius says, urging Europe to fast-track its own missile production. www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...