If they aren't already, Canada and Iceland should be deeply alarmed by this comment from Trump.

Strong agree, except I’d add some bla bla abt US access to Greenland resources also ok. Presumably it’s going to be mostly bla bla bc if it made commercial sense it wld be happening anyway.

Yup, it’s reached the point where EUR security is arguably enhanced by a US pullback of forces, at least for as long as Trump is in office. But IMO a pullback wld probably be better than a complete withdrawal of US forces or US withdrawal from NATO unless he invades Greenland (which seems unlikely).

Newsom, at any rate, has been telling it like it is (although “deviancy of consciousness” is smthg of a euphemism).

Agree, too early to call if deterrence worked (although the effort was definitely the right thing to do) & for sure the Greenland drama isn’t over. With Trump it’s usually five steps forward, two back, five forward (and the more outrageous, the more relentless bc he’s less likely to lose interest).

💯%. It certainly had these faults, but it’s the worst int’l order except for all the others, and by far.

The time when this kind of opportunism was tolerable is past. Churchill sure had his faults but he certainly wasn’t an opportunist. The moral compass moment is now for Wstrn leaders — and for Wstrn publics.

One point at this historic moment: there’s an understandable focus on “the rules based int’l order” and what Trump is doing to what’s left of it, but the illiberal-intolerance/-autocracy vs liberal-democracy fight is also underway, and is being fought, WITHIN most every democracy, including France.

Also this. Crying need for some leadership in the US right now, leadership that is necessarily going entail TAKING POLITICAL RISKS, standing on principle.

Yeah, feels like that to me as well, at least w regard to Trump’s US, with Carney’s speech being the milepost. But I still think what happens in the US after Trump is v unclear. OTOH, IMO it wld be very unwise for the countries that we used to refer to as US allies to count on a Trump backlash.

Such a great speech, and one that every Wstrn leader who cares abt lib democracy shld be echoing. Time for Starmer in particular to show some spine. Loved this in particular: 1/3

❗️The 🇺🇸United States Southern Command has announced the detention by U.S. forces of the oil tanker Sagitta in the Caribbean Sea area. The tanker is likely also connected to the so-called 🇷🇺Russian “shadow fleet”.

Thread. What a tragedy that it has come to this.

Yup. Even worse than I expected, and I thought it was going to be terrible.

Mark Carney has been great, IMO. Canadians have to be particularly alarmed by Trump’s Greenland insanity. Still three more years to go (w some uncertainty abt whether he leaves office even then).

That’s probably around a 50% increase from 2025. Obv a key factor is whether RU stops pressing as hard on the frontline/scales back its meat grinder tactics, presumably bc it decides to count more on its LRS strike and influence vs EUR/US campaigns to force UKR to capitulate. We’ll see.

NB: “Ukraine’s military, overnight on Monday-Tuesday, shot down or disabled hundreds of incoming Russian missiles and drones in a distinct air defense victory, with recent European-financed deliveries of high-tech interceptor missiles playing a key role in that success…”

The Prime Minister of Belgium speaks:

Pretty sure that’s right. IMO important to watch in particular what the Trump effect is for EUR nationalist-populists/extreme right.

I loved this article. Funny. And for those who think culture doesn’t matter re law (or politics, or crime, or war, etc).

Trump posts an image of him planting the American flag on Greenland alongside a sign that says “Greenland US Territory est 2026”

Trump: "Shockingly, our 'brilliant' NATO Ally, the UK, is planning to give away Island of Diego Garcia ... China & Russia have noticed this act of total weakness ... UK giving away important land is an act of GREAT STUPIDITY, & is another in a long line of reasons why Greenland has to be acquired"

Footage shows Danish troops arriving in Greenland as part of a new military deployment. Among the personnel who landed on the island is Major General Peter H. Boysen, Chief of the Danish Army Command. #Greenland

I’ve thought for some time now that a Trump-led withdrawal from NATO, or even a significant pullback from NATO, was sooner or later going to lead Poland to go nuclear. Given what’s happening to int’l law and treaty compliance w Trump, that’s even more likely. Can’t happen quickly tho.

Europe’s future?

NB: “The majority of RUs do not trust Trump…; the notion of “RU as a besieged fortress” is gaining much greater traction; RUs genuinely believe that EURs are preparing to launch a full-scale war… and the majority believes RU has no allies or friends (with the possible exception of Belarus)…”

Good.

“The last dictator of Europe”, Belarus’s Lukashenko is among those invited to join Trump’s new “Peace Council” on Gaza, joining leaders from Russia and Hungary. www.kyivpost.com/post/68362

Addressing Europe's security dependence on the US really isn't about money. It is about a massive reorganization of European militaries so they can act and fight as Europe. Right now they all just dock into the US motherboard. Spending more is needed now but doubt 3.5% is necessary w/ major reform

Coalition of the autocrats. Thing is RU has MUCH more immediate problems than Gaza, or indeed than MENA.

Hmmm. Not sure how this plays out domestically but IMO not the right moment geopolitically for this: “Positioned himself as bridge between US & EU. He spoke to Trump on Sunday (ie he has access) Would not bite on retaliatory sanctions like EU - his focus is on avoiding “a tariff war.”

One thing to consider is how the Greenland crisis in US-EUR relations impacts Ze’s thinking about the US. Probably smart to keep playing along w the Trump “peace” charade for time being but also likely to move him closer to EUR even more quickly.

Russia’s deadly new jet drone exposed — geran-5 blasts at 600km/h with 90kg warhead, Ukrainian intel reveals. The geran-5 is a major upgrade, faster and more powerful than earlier drones used in mass strikes on cities and energy targets. www.kyivpost.com/post/68327

I would guess that, even if Trump does blow up NATO, the UK would want the divorce to be as amicable as possible -- i.e. for the US not to withdraw from the nuclear 1958 Mutual Defence Agreement & Five Eyes. London could then maintain its nuclear & intel capabilities for Euro defence.

The only U.S. heavy icebreaker turns 50. That's an interesting landmark given recent U.S. criticism of other countries for not taking Arctic security seriously.

Key point: “UKR is by far the most militarized country among those represented with… more expertise in the realities of fighting a war than anyone… If UKR’s military might were to be included… the potential armed power of the coalition of the willing would be vast…” www.politico.eu/article/dona...

NB: “Wstrn sanctions… have cut the country off from foreign-built aircraft and spare parts, leaving airlines to operate aging fleets through shadowy import channels or by “cannibalizing” other planes… more than 100 foreign aircraft could be grounded in the coming years.” www.kyivpost.com/post/68339

Tariff response likely to be foregrounded but watch to see how many measures are “if you go forward, then…” vs immediate. And watch in particular any measures focused on defense re Greenland, EUR-wide, NATO specific, including US presence. It’s kinda a Munich moment.

For some reason the all-caps made me laugh.

Yup.

The Trump effect.

Full bore Caligula-grade madness.

It takes incompetence of very high order to force Canada—long the most desirable neighbor any state could wish for—to reach out for closer ties with our main geopolitical foe. www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcn...

The incredibly lukewarm Democratic response on Greenland is being noticed in Europe, incidentally. Chuck Schumer not finding a stronger word than “quixotic” for Trump’s plan to seize Greenland has been name checked to me more than once.

”It was not clear what legal authority Trump would invoke to hit allies with tariffs, or whether the new levies would apply to goods that have been exempt from US tariffs under recent trade agreements.” But it is clear no deal can be expected to be honored. 🇺🇸🇪🇺 giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

IMO it’s going to turn out that China, not RU, will be the prime beneficiary of the Great Trump Disruption, especially if it plays its cards w restraint (and best for its global influence not to invade Taiwan). Fareed Zakaria was v good on China and the Trump fallout on GPS this morning.

The USS Abraham Lincoln was seen crossing the Malacca Strait, moving from the South China Sea toward the Arabian Sea. Escorted by destroyers USS Michael Murphy and USS Stethem, and reportedly joined by a submarine, the fleet is expected to reach striking range of Iran within 5 to 7 days.

Exc thread. NB: “… a major EUR economic response that roils markets c/d really hurt Trump politically w/ midterms.” As an American, my take is that EUR wld be doing the US a huge favor stepping up to this American Caligula, and for sure a great many Americans feel the same way despite the costs.

Macron made the 2/3 claim this week. Most Western officials I have spoken to are sceptical about this claim. It'd be good to know what exactly it refers to.

Ongoing fighting in Syria between the STG and the SDF is not about west and east of the Euphrates. Damascus wants full control over territory, means of violence and resources. Redefining the front lines is a means to force the SDF to the negotiation table in this direction.