NB: “…the maritime areas in the High North, as well as the North Atlantic are of high strategic priority to RU. The wider Nordic region… is therefore exposed to RU power projection interests in terms of its access to the Atlantic Ocean from the High North.”

Putin has remained silent for a week after Ukrainian drone strikes sparked a massive fire at the Tuapse oil terminal, sending toxic smog hundreds of kilometres along Russia’s Black Sea coast. Meanwhile, the blaze is still ongoing. www.kyivpost.com/post/74648

Japan just passed a significant bill today to establish a National Intelligence Council and a National Intelligence Bureau. This reform is one of the most consequential changes to Japan's security apparatus since 1952. Law specifically target activities often attributed to China’s state actors.

#NATO selects Swedish Saab GlobalEye to replace 14 E-3 AWACS planes in historic shift from the U.S. #ReArmEU www.armyrecognition.com/news/aerospa...

The European Union has adopted its 20th sanctions package against Russia today. Here is what it includes: t.co/syyxg28BiT

In 2019 Trump wanted to hold a G7 summit at his Doral resort. But there was and outcry and he dropped the idea. Now he’s holding a G20 summit at Doral and the only controversy is over whether Putin will attend. This is the normalization of corruption. www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

Also, I won’t be surprised if Putin declines the invitation. Tough one for him as well for similar reasons IMO. Potential to present himself as co-equal Great Power vs risk he’s humiliated by contempt/scorn from some G20 leaders.

Going to make for some tough choices for EUR+ members of G20 and very awkward optics. Show up? Shake hands? Shun? Condemn? Ignore? Etc.

You will be missed on the defense front but best wishes in DC (which will also not be a boring job).

3/ An adviser to former hardline President Ahmadinejad told the New York Times that Khamenei is relying “heavily” on the advice and guidance of a group of IRGC officers to make decisions. Mojtaba is reportedly gravely wounded, but is "mentally sharp and engaged,” per 4 senior Iranian officials.

Ukrainian destruction of russian air defense systems over the past several months, showing a clear increase in the pace of russian AD degradation. Context thread in next post ⏬️ www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrain...

Moscow Times and demographer Alexey Raksha say that Russia's birth rate has hit a 200-year low. Here's 1 of his graphs for the last 70 years. Meanwhile, Putin continues his war of recolonization that has killed over 300,000 Russians. ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/04/23/r...

❗️EU Council finally approves €90 billion loan for Ukraine and adopts the 20th package of sanctions against Russia This was announced by the President of the European Council, António Costa.

Good. IMO just what Ze shld be saying and trying to make happen.

Shld add that IMO another v worrisome possibility is Putin ordering some kind of false flag incident w UKR that brings us to brink of RU using a low-yield nuke. Less likely but IMO way more likely than it shld be is RU actually using a TNW(s) vs UKR. Either cld shake things up in unforeseen ways.

Maybe not that provocative (?) but perhaps an island up north (Svalbard?) or a “borderization” move (see eg Georgia and S Ossetia) vs Estonia. Or maybe smthg dramatic on the hybrid front (eg cyber attack/undersea cables). Lots of possibilities w various escalation risks/implications.

Interesting development: USAF tested the AGM-188A Rusty Dagger on an F-16 (successful April 13). With Ukraine's F-16s coming, expect enhanced long-range strike options by late 2026. Parallels to past proxy wars and tech transfers are notable.

Thread on the question of whether we are at an inflection point for Putin and RU’s Putin era. A few thoughts. 1/x

What it shld read: “The Minister Who Wants To Deter War With Russia.”

Pretty sure Ze realizes Putin will never meet him and this is intended to impact public opinion abroad (making it easier for govs to provide assistance) by signaling he’s open to a ceasefire. But v likely ceasefire wld be unstable and divisive within UKR. Putin won’t agree bc of humiliation factor.

IMO an increasingly big deal (RU econ stress in general). One thing RUs haven’t had to worry much abt for years (basically since Putin first became president, w Covid partial exception) is unemployment. This plus battlefield stalemate/RU casualties/costs looking more and more like inflection points.

Gonna be a decision point for Trump on NATO. Least worst outcome IMO is another complaint festival, but if Hormuz is still closed/no de-mining under way, going to be hard for Trump not to do smthg dramatic.

In May, Russia will cut off Kazakh crude flows to Germany via the northern branch of the Druzhba pipeline (a separate leg from the route supplying Hungary and Slovakia), removing 17% of feedstock for the Berlin area's main refinery. Kazakh crude exports to Germany rose 44% last year.

Reuters: The U.S. military has introduced Ukrainian counter-drone technology at the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia after repeated Iranian drone attacks damaged aircraft and infrastructure.

More blowback for RU. Already in big trouble w UKR, then add Poland, Finland and other Nordics, and Balts (all v capable and, critically importantly, willing to defend themselves/fight if need be), plus much of rest of EUR+.

🚨 BREAKING: EU approves €90B loan to Ukraine after 'Druzhba' pipeline deadlock is resolved. EU ambassadors today placed two major items on the Coreper agenda: 🔸€90B loan to Ukraine 🔸20th sanctions package against Russia Both approved at the Coreper level. 1/🧵

🇪🇺🇭🇺🇺🇦‼️ EU Ambassadors have just agreed to launch two written procedures to adopt the sanctions package and approve the Ukraine support loan. Kyiv is about to get its €90bn

Suffice it to say Putin won’t be engaging in another Minsk process w Germany France, or the OSCE.

Ukraine resumes oil flow through the Druzhba pipeline — supplies to Slovakia are expected to restart on Thursday. Slovak Economy Minister Denisa Saková said pressure is being restored and the pipeline is being refilled on the Ukrainian side, citing Ukraine’s operator Ukrtransnafta.

The Kremlin's been ratcheting up Internet censorship for decades, but the pace is truly wild these days. www.vedomosti.ru/technology/a...

Another red flag for the RU economy, particularly given the demand for steel from RU’s military industries.

Trump: "STATEMENT OF PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP: Based on the fact the Govt of Iran is seriously fractured, not unexpectedly so and, upon the request of Pakistan we have been asked to hold our Attack on the Country of Iran until such time as their representatives can come up with a unified proposal"

Iran's IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency is reporting that the Iranian negotiating team has informed the US through Pakistani mediators that it will not be present on Wednesday for talks and that for now there is no outlook for Iranian participation in the negotiations.

NB: “Used up: * 45% of Precision Strike Missiles * 50% of THAAD interceptors * 50% of Patriot air defence missiles * Tomahawks and long-range missiles down by 20–30%”

Doesn’t look like Putin intends to order the RU military to go into “hold the line” mode soon.

Thread. NB: “Manufacturing and trade are suffering the worst. A third of the entire debt, 2.9 trillion rubles ($38 billion) is concentrated in manufacturing.”

Here's your regular reminder that nobody (including Trump) actually knows what will happen next. He constantly lies, of course, but they're also all making it up as they go along. There's no plan, it's all just vibes

❗️🇩🇰Denmark has selected the European SAMP/T NG system to protect its airspace.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

❗️Reuters: Russia has cut oil output by an estimated 300000 to 400000 barrels per day in April following Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries and ports. The disruption, combined with reduced pipeline flows to Europe, marks the sharpest monthly decline in production since the COVID period. #Russia

Thread. NB: “…the Lenaerts Court blows the door open to a much broader application of EU law in cases concerning democracy, human rights, and the rule of law.” Excellent!!

Inflation in Russia — which had begun to slow at the beginning of this year — is picking up again. Data from the country’s statistical agency Rosstat shows price growth accelerated to 5.95% in the first week of April, after a dip to 5.86% in March.

Pro-Russian party associated with former president Rumen Radev has won Bulgaria’s snap parliamentary election with over 38 percent, according to exit polls. Radev has taken eurosceptic positions, called Crimea Russian, and opposed military support for Ukraine. #Bulgaria

With Radev's win in Bulgaria, imo, we'll see something new at the EU level-- advocacy for pro-Ru positions not from a euroskeptic position a la Orban/AfD/RN but from an ostensibly pro-EU position: Europe should abandon Ukr and go back to cheap Ru energy to be stronger and strategically autonomous.

Radev's party, called Progressive Bulgaria, should NOT be described as progressive or leftist. It's not that by a long-shot! The platform takes far-right positions on social issues, opposes renewable energy/Green Deal, and proposes tax breaks even though Bg has a 10% flat income/corporate tax.

NB: “… Russia would need prices for Urals crude, its main blend of oil, to remain above $100 a barrel for a year to close its budget deficit, and for significantly longer than that to smooth over its other economic problems.”

❗️A large-scale fire broke out at the oil refinery in 🇷🇺Tuapse as a result of a repeated nighttime attack by 🇺🇦Ukrainian strike drones.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

“Prymary” unit strikes two Russian landing ships, Yamal and Nikolai Filchenkov, as well as “Podlyot-K1” radar system in Crimea.

Ukraine has used an unmanned surface platform to launch an interceptor drone that destroyed a Shahed UAV, marking the first known case of this tactic by the 412th Nemesis Brigade. #Ukraine

Who could possibly have foreseen? Oh wait