Good representation of UKR’s LRS campaign in these maps.

NB: “…the reluctance to [order] a timely withdrawal is linked to the systemic culture of "not one step back," commonly associated… Syrskyi. This, together with the associated problem of false reporting…, threaten to facilitate an optimistic narrative…while the situation continues to deteriorate…”

❗️NATO has overtaken Russia in ammunition production, —NATO Secretary General Rutte "Until recently, Russia produced more ammunition than all NATO allies combined. But that is no longer the case.

Important/IMO convincing take NB: “the real damage caused by Ukraine’s campaign is cumulative and institutional, not physical. Even as it strives to preserve short-term stability, Russia is presiding over the acceleration of long-term decline.” www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/slow-...

The EU is preparing to further tighten visa rules for Russian citizens, effectively ending the issuance of multi-entry Schengen permits in most cases. But visa issuance remains a national competence, meaning that the European Commission cannot impose a total, sweeping ban on Russian visitors.

Moldova's Cabinet of Ministers has approved the closure of the Russian Center for Culture&Science in Chișinău,it said in a statement These centers are used by Russia to promote its propaganda narratives Moldova is doing very well in moving away from Russia's sphere of influence gov.md/en/node/5435

In case anyone was getting euphoric about the Dutch election results, here's a useful corrective from my colleagues @armida.bsky.social & @sandertordoir.bsky.social . In sum - the likely coalition will be better than last time, but the far right vote is still rising, though more fragmented.

I suspect this bla bla is a sign that Putin is worried about domestic support/regime stability down the road. No evidence of anything imminent, but the elex returns in the US are likely to have diminished remaining hopes that Trump is going to throw him a life ring on UKR, econ, etc. So now what?

Yup, but IMO quite unlikely US restarts nuclear testing, despite Trump bla bla. Ofc we can’t be sure how yesterday’s elex and Trump’s low/sinking approval rating will impact his foreign/security policies. Best to assume the worst w him, as usual. May well go full wag the dog etc.

Yup. Fingers crossed.

Türkiye has long been one of the largest buyers of Russian oil, alongside China and India, but new US sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil are forcing the Turkish industry to change suppliers⤵️

❗️The 🇳🇱Netherlands has officially handed over 18 previously delivered F-16 fighter jets to 🇷🇴Romania. The jets were sold for a symbolic price of 1 euro. The F-16s will be used to train Romanian and 🇺🇦Ukrainian pilots

NB: “India, China, and Turkey — which together account for roughly 95% of Russia's crude exports — have paused or reduced imports as they seek clarity on compliance risks. Some buyers have turned to smaller Russian suppliers not yet under sanctions, but many are sourcing oil elsewhere.”

❗️🇳🇴Norway will allocate $7 billion to 🇺🇦Ukraine next year for military assistance, — Ukrainian Defense Minister Shmyhal following the meeting with Norwegian Defense Minister Sandvik

More on this. NB: “The final figure will likely be lower and not higher, as the Ministry of Finance has shown in recent years and just a few weeks ago that it is always ready to cut back on the Ministry of Defence's increase plans.” But yes, very good (initial) news.

South Korea's exports to tiny Kyrgyzstan just reached half a billion Dollars in one month. This stuff is obviously not headed to Kyrgyzstan but is going to Russia. The West is guilty of a collective failure on Ukraine: chasing short term profits instead of shutting down autocrats. We must do better.

North Korea has sent about 5,000 construction troops to Russia since September to help with "infrastructure reconstruction," a South Korean lawmaker said after a briefing by Seoul's spy agency.

Germany plans to boost military aid to Ukraine by €3B in 2026, raising the total to €8.5B, Handelsblatt reports. The funds will go toward artillery shells, IFVs, drones, vehicles, and Patriot missiles. However, Taurus cruise missiles remain excluded. The final 2026 budget is expected by next week.

Reminded of Stalin’s “dizzy with success” speech. Also the purges. Not irrelevant to what’s happening in Trump’s US IMO. Unleashing from above, but ofc Stalin, Putin, Trump don’t just unleash.

Yup.

NEW: Russian forces continue to advance in the Pokrovsk direction and appear to be operating with increasing comfort within Pokrovsk itself. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 3, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar110325 Other Key Takeaways ⬇️ [🧵] (1/8)

❗️Putin signed a law on the involvement of reservists to protect critical facilities in the Russian Federation and conscription for military service throughout the year Now Moscow will be able to mobilize reservists to protect facilities such as refineries, bridges, airfields, etc.

⚡️UK supplies Ukraine with additional Storm Shadow missiles for deep strikes into Russia, Bloomberg reports

Interesting:

Yesterday, I publicly stated that the deliveries were nearing completion, and today, just one day later, official confirmation has come from the Ukrainian President. The two MIM-104 Patriot fire units from Bundeswehr stocks pledged in August have been delivered to #Ukraine!

Lithuania and Russia are in talks to extend the gas transit deal to Kaliningrad, according to LRT. Amber Grid and Gazprom may agree on a shorter contract term and a higher service fee. The current 10-year deal expires in December. Lithuania says any decision will be made in coordination with the EU.

Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi stated Ukrainian forces are conducting a comprehensive operation to destroy and expel Russian forces attempting to infiltrate Pokrovsk, with no encirclement or blockade present.

Yup, so, you know…. We’ll see.

To me a pleasant surprise.

Yup, interesting. NB: “Putting Venezuela, which had a 40-year-old democracy with civilian presidents and a secular government, in the same category of “Third-World-unsolvable-mess”… is as colonialist as Trump speaking of shithole countries.” We’ll see re “regime change from outside” (if happens).

More on this. NB: “UKR commanders' reports as well as open-source data show that Putin's claim of a complete encirclement is still far from reality, but the situation is undoubtedly highly dynamic and deteriorating...” Not good if UKR loses Pokrovsk but much worse if big encirclement, esp 4 Ze& team

Not going to happen, regardless of what Trump actually wants or expects.

⚡️Russia renews military flights to Syria as it rebuilds relations with Damascus. Russia has resumed military flights to Syria as it tries to maintain its presence in the country. Recent flight data showed Russian planes arriving at the Khmeimim air base, Bloomberg reported.

This is v good on RU tactics re Trump but IMO RU’s fundamental problem is its UKR problem doesn’t go away even if it succeeds re Trump bc UKR will keeps fighting w EUR+ asst regardless. Doesn’t mean US support or lack of it doesn’t matter—impacts battlefield but IMO not enough to fulfill RU war aims

The markets are speaking. They saw Trump fold on China yesterday, and have concluded that his “sanctions” on Russia will have “limited” value (to put it kindly). Oil analysts aren’t going to be fooled like MAGA propagandists. www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/comm...

Last year, I wrote an article for @foreignaffairs.com on why the US stands to lose the most from a resumption of nuclear testing. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

NB “capable of carrying a nuclear warhead” — relevant to RU complaints abt Tomahawks being dual capable (shld they ever be provided).

Haven’t commented on the WoR article bc it’s outside my wheelhouse but this IMO is v good. (CMR=civil-military relations and SaS=Huntington’s The Soldier and the State.) Wondering why WoR wld publish the essay, expecting/hoping it will get a lot of pushback, esp from military professionals.

NB: “…the INF Treaty banned all ground-launched missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers...”

That Moscow wasn’t willing to compromise/modify war aims shld surprise no one.

❗️Ukraine has DESTROYED one of Russia’s “Oreshnik” on Russian territory, with only three believed to exist, Vasyl Maliuk, head of Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU), said.

New satellite imagery shows that construction of the new Russia-North Korea Tumangang-Khasan road bridge has made significant progress in the past six months. See the full analysis from @korea.csis.org: beyondparallel.csis.org/significant-...

Zelensky says Putin is welcome to visit Pokrovsk, but “everyone knows how that would end.” He confirmed no Ukrainian encirclement there, though the battle is fierce. Russia aims to capture the city. He also said Ukraine has already destroyed one “Oreshnik” missile system inside Russia.

"The Trump administration has identified targets in Venezuela that include military facilities used to smuggle drugs,” the WSJ reports. They’re not even trying to be plausible.

Thread.

5/n - If by testing he means nuclear explosive testing, that would be reckless, probably not possible for 18 months, would cost money that Congress would have to approve, and it would certainly trigger Russian and Chinese and likely also India/Pakistan nuclear tests.

Key question is whether EUR leaders are able to convince their publics that the stakes are high enough to warrant this kind of commitment. But key point is that the threat to EUR security from RU isn’t going away.

The Economist says Europe will have to give Ukraine nearly double what it's already supplied to keep Kyiv afloat long enough for Putin to realize "that he cannot win a long war." That's $389 billion between 2026 and 2029. The magazine takes a reparations loan as a given. Then? Eurobonds, baby!

Glad to be quoted in the @apnews.com article on 700 US troops being rotated out of Romania: “we do know the direction of travel: fewer US troops and assets"... “Russia could be tempted to test NATO even further, checking how the alliance responds” apnews.com/article/nato...

‼️ Ukraine responds to Putin’s offer of "media corridor" and recalls Ilovaisk tragedy