Important read. Takeaway: “ … ‘diplomacy that promotes dialogue’ was being replaced by ‘diplomacy based on force. War is back in vogue, and a zeal for war is spreading.’” www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0...

Yup. This, BTW, is a very good book.

1/ I just re-read this Robert Lyman note from mid-December on the strange mismatch between the consistent warnings by UK defence and intelligence chiefs of impending conflict, and the dogged refusal by the UK government to do anything about it. robertlyman.substack.com/p/the-danger...

Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter floats the idea of "joint Nordic nuclear weapons – perhaps together with Germany." How the launch authority for that would work is a mystery.

AFAIK there’s v little the Kremlin can do in response to this. Worth noting that unlike re the Cuban Missile Crisis, the US has massive escalation dominance, including conventionally in EUR, and Putin certainly is not going to want to risk strategic nuclear war w the US over Venezuela.

Cold and getting colder in Belgorod now, not just Kyiv. A reminder that this war of RU aggression is massively negative sum — bad for most everyone, notably RUs.

More than half a million residents of Russia's Belgorod region remain without electricity, heat or water after a Ukrainian attack, local authorities say.

This is so far beyond normal and the political and media response must also be far beyond whatever those elites think is normal.

NB: “Vance is correct in saying that Denmark is not ‘a good ally.’ It’s a great one… Denmark is the most generous donor to UKR’s mil defense... In the AFG war… Denmark suffered more fatalities per capita than any other NATO ally apart from the US.” www.nytimes.com/2026/01/09/o...

Yup.

Another point of comparison: the US was at war with Germany in WWII for 1245 days, with some 250 KIA in N Africa and EUR out of a population in 1941 of 133m. RU has had (probably) around the same number of KIA in Ukraine since 2022 out of population of c 145m in 1418 days (not counting 2014-22).

On the question of bending the knee vs regime change (see also Venezuela). NB: “For both Trump and Israel, the issue is not that they want to help Iranians enjoy democratic rights; the main issue is how they can weaken and break the Islamic Republic. 1/2

Power is gradually returning to Kyiv after last night’s massive Russian attack. DTEK reports that 588,000 households now have electricity again. However, around 60,000 families on the city’s Left Bank are still without power. Emergency shutdowns continue in parts of Holosiivskyi and Pecherskyi.

Going to seen in Moscow as another loss for Team RU but IMO there are really only three “allies” that really matter, maybe 3 1/2: China, Belarus, and N. Korea. Half is India. RU involvement in rest, including Iran, costs RU more than it gains (eg Cuba, Venezuela, Africa, etc). Imperial overreach.

Drunk Medvedev couldn’t resist his sick fantasies and also lashed out, threatening Europe with the so‑called Oreshnik.

Donald Trump and his top aides emerged from a lengthy White House meeting yesterday without any major commitments from companies to invest billions of dollars into #Venezuela. “It’s uninvestible,” ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods told officials www.cnn.com/2026/01/09/p...

Greenland’s five main political parties have rejected Trump’s desire to take control of the country. They say only Greenlanders can decide the island’s future and stressed they want to be Greenlanders, not Americans or Danes, AFP reports.

Trump on Taiwan. If any other president of any party had said this, congressional Republicans would be flipping out.

The site that was struck is about 40 miles from the border with Poland… Britain and France… said this week that they were prepared to deploy troops to UKR… If they were to follow through, their forces most likely would be stationed in the area that RU hit on Friday.” www.nytimes.com/2026/01/09/w...

Hmmm. Rather doubt that Trump will care if true.

IMO v unclear what Putin can do about it. Notably unclear whether he wants to risk a full break with Trump.

Interesting from Dan Ziblatt on the “wag the dog” factor (and one big way standard IR “realism” often misses the boat).

The US Coast Guard boarded a fifth oil tanker, the sanctioned vessel Olina, near Venezuela as it enforces the blockade on tankers trading Venezuelan oil, a move likely to raise tensions with Moscow, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Kyiv is currently entirely without power and heating after today’s attack. Authorities urged people to leave the city if they can. This is a humanitarian disaster, in case anyone didn’t know

More on this. NB: “K apustin Yar is a known launch site for Russia's Oreshnik…IRBM… The Western Command of Ukraine's Air Force later confirmed the Russian strike on Lviv was conducted using an unidentified ballistic missile…”

Footage suggests that Russia indeed launched an Oreshnik (RS-26 Rubezh) IRBM against Lviv, Ukraine. The inert entry vehicles come down and can cause damage by kinetic energy. Except in one case, previous attempts to fire that missile ended in failures.

@martinsandbu.ft.com on the state of RUS economy "The picture is clear. The RU economy is under enormous strain, & is running out of resources. ... The message for the west — what remains of it — is that the medicine (sanctions) is working, but the dose should be increased." 100% #UkrainianView

Meanwhile, their primary effect IMO is to make RU even less likely to agree to a ceasefire or settlement. It’s possible at some point some EUR leaders decide to deploy forces despite RU objections (v unlikely anytime soon, if ever) but risk there, ofc, is getting drawn in ever deeper Vietnam-style.

Pretty well sums up why the peacekeeping force/security guarantees chatter is mostly pointless. Only mostly, tho, bc it’s arguably useful for Wstrn leaders to show their publics they’re not the spoilers, and there’s a chance way down the road that a PKF might happen, so worth keeping on the agenda.

Ukraine’s state defense industry increased arms and military equipment production by 50% in 2025. In total, the sector produced equipment worth $4.75 billion, up from $3.22 billion in 2024. The number of state defense contracts also rose by over 50%, boosting industrial capacity and output.

Trump wants to increase military spending by 50% - half a trillion dollars - through magic economics.

Lies.

I think it’s worth saying, without any kind of starry-eyed sentiment, that now is a critical time for everyone to remind themselves of narrative’s seismic power, and to consistently and unambiguously articulate what happened in Mpls today. No obfuscating passive voice. No pussyfooting ambiguity.

ICE goons shoots a concerned neighbor point blank in the face with a 40mm pepper grenade after a woman was shot in the face during an ICE abduction (Minneapolis, MN. 1/7/26)

abolish ice is the moderate position to be honest. whichever candidate promises to nuremberg the ice agents has my vote at this point

Also an important video. youtube.com/watch?v=X7KD...

Beyond appalling. youtube.com/watch?v=mNnV...

Oops, “could say,” that is.

Lots of talk again about China, the US, and Russia dividing the world into spheres of influence. One problem with this idea is that after 30 years of trying, Russia's sphere is limited to Belarus, Georgia, and 20% of Ukraine. Another is that if China has a sphere, it includes Russia.

Pretty sure he believes this crazy stuff as he writes it (eg re US staying in/supporting NATO), but a week from now he couldn’t say, and think, exactly the opposite.

Yup. Plus surrounded by lots of very hostile neighbors.

Going to be interesting to see how the White House handles any detained RU citizens. Regardless, not going to be well received by RU military bloggers, nationalists, etc. Nor by the Kremlin ofc.

More on this. NB: “Russian naval forces had been on their way to escort the tanker when it was captured by U.S. forces Wednesday.”

Yup. IMO past time for EUR to raise risk tolerance re RU (and differently re Trump). But this has the advantage of being useful re RU while being on same page w Trump.

What I find particularly remarkable is how so much American debate seems oblivious to how much the foundations of US global power is dependent on access to infrastructure, bases and depots in Europe and Canada

Meanwhile, the US has seized a second tanker, this time in the Caribbean sea, according to the US Southern Command. "M/T Sophia was operating in international waters and conducting illicit activities in the Caribbean Sea. The US Coast Guard is escorting M/T Sophia to the US for final disposition."

The other key point: “To some critics, it’s about plunder. To others, it’s about hemispheric hegemony. Actually, it’s about both.” Yup.

Very good piece by Greg Sargent. Key point: “That says something grim about Trump’s view of his own supporters. He thinks they are just as corrupt, amoral, indifferent to the fate of those killed by our military, and eager to pillage weaker countries for the spoils of conquest as he is.”

Thread, with more on the Putin buyer’s remorse question (and the world he has had a very large hand in bringing about). NB: “Is that better for Putin than alternatives? Someday someone more hostile to Russia might succeed Trump.” Yup.