Again, all of this because once upon a time, Obama did a thing.

as @profsaunders.bsky.social keeps saying, trump's choices are escalation or humiliation. the first would make him even less popular; the second would also make him even less popular. so he dithers.

Trump is simultaneously unable to make a credible threat of war or peace. And he's still between a rock and a hard place called the Strait of Hormuz.

We haven't had to fire any shots so it's not obvious but a blockade of this magnitude would generally be considered an act of war. We did not do this in the 1962 missile crisis, we allowed ships not carrying weapons to proceed to Cuba

A reminder because I can't stop and its compulsive at this point that the disastrous run of US diplomacy in the lead up to and the duration of the Iran conflict is the fault of Marco Rubio, who was confirmed by a unanimous voice vote by the United States Senate

Have to wonder if the sudden optimism for the diplomatic solution from Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the nation's top diplomat, is related to his desire to move on to Cuba.

Shocked! Shocked!

And going out with the NBA on NBC music, perfection of a certain vintage

Feels very ominous as a Knicks fan. But maybe 7 games in double OT would help!

Well, at least oil tankers are moving through the Strait of Hormuz again. Oh, wait ...

You have got to be kidding. Except, of course this is what he did.

Strong showing from the Moldovan tourist board.

After years of sucking, the UK shows up with what can best be described as an absolute mid 1980s bop and I'm 100% in for this. We have a ton of synth, random German counting for no reason, and some proper bad hair. Fuck yes UK. #Eurovision #EurovisionSongContest

Bring back “Made in Switzerland”

Ukraine’s integration into European deterrence and defense is under appreciated. With Europe’s most capable military, it will play a central role going forward.

Like any reputable publication, @goodauth.bsky.social has a Eurovision correspondent. @alexandraguisinger.bsky.social & Mateo Perez Presmanes get you ready for the sparkle.

Also, Trump has always seemed very scared of nuclear war. He likes to take on what he sees as easy wars, but I doubt he would ever fight a nuclear power.

It has always seemed inconceivable that Trump would send US troops to fight in Taiwan (yes, even after Iran). He said as much out loud. His admiration of Xi is longstanding. Never understood the China hawks' embrace of him.

“.. the programme has not provided a single dollar of cover.” @financialtimes.com #Hormuz www.ft.com/content/eaba...

It's almost as if Rubio doesn't believe in anything, isn't it? www.nytimes.com/2026/05/16/u...

You know, a President accusing a NYT reporter of committing treason just for asking a question is actually quite a big deal, and this bunch just standing there listening to it and doing nothing is not encouraging the public to think of journalism as a serious business or of words meaning anything.

The Strait of Hormuz is literally between a rock and a hard place.

Some of the identified individuals the US killed in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific showed "no indication of involvement with drug trafficking." And even if they were traffickers, they'd be low level. Killing them would make virtually no impact on the cartels or drug trafficking into the US.

this truly is the thing that makes the united states exceptional, and right wingers hate it so much they want to destroy it

Trump's Iran fiasco worsening: *Officials leaking Trump hasn't destroyed Iran military *Allies running from admission he's not concerned with people's finances *GOP Senators breaking *Polls cratering On the pod @nicholasgrossman.bsky.social nails all these dynamics: newrepublic.com/article/2104...

This is absolutely correct. Most politicians cared a lot about their reputations for honesty; they would of course spin and sometimes go over the line where it couldn't be backed up at all but very few politicians and no previous presidents would just outright lie all the time.

Apropos of nuthin, anyone know what the Trump administration's China policy is? I'll wait.

Strait Status: still all but closed.

Sure are!

Pleased to contribute to this NYT piece along with @leahstokes.bsky.social @michaelgerrard.bsky.social @janrosenow.bsky.social and other smart energy experts

It's hard to believe, but this really is the official position of our country's Very Serious Financial Analysts: "it would simply be too horrible if the strait stays closed, so ... [closes eyes tight, taps heels together] ... it won't!"

Political scientist: did you not read @proftalmadge.bsky.social TWENTY YEARS AGO???

Assume this Strait of Hormuz thing works out, because it’ll be bad if it doesn’t? Awful analysis, even worse as a financial plan. Political constraints are real, you fools. War is very real. Iran gets a big say in how this goes, and their priorities are power and security, not US investors’ books.

This is what happens if you didn't take a polisci class on international relations (and are also really bad at logic)

Can U.S. civil-military norms survive a polarized America? 🎧 In this episode: the legality of boat strikes against suspected drug traffickers, the firing of top Pentagon officials, and the U.S. war against Iran. Listen now! goodauthority.org/news/can-us-... 🏷️ @profsaunders.bsky.social

NEW episode of @chalkboardpolitics.bsky.social on civil-military norms -- what they are, why they matter, and how today's polarized politics threaten them. Peter Feaver guides us through this thicket of difficult questions. Listen in the @goodauth.bsky.social feed: goodauthority.podbean.com/e/cp5/

Not busy with anything else then, Mr. Secretary?

Apropos of nuthin, anyone know what the Trump administration's China policy is? I'll wait.

In our newest episode of Chalkboard Politics with guest Peter Feaver, the team examines the growing pressures facing civil-military relations in the US amid rising polarization, institutional distrust, and debates over executive authority in war and security policy. Some of the main themes include:

What the President of the United States says matters, and his sharing of this communication is sickening.

And here's a short @goodauth.bsky.social post on the episode. goodauthority.org/news/can-us-...

📣🎧It's been a tough year for civil-military relations, and the Iran War might make it even tougher. The @chalkboardpolitics.bsky.social team interviewed Peter Feaver to discuss. Find all episodes in the @goodauth.bsky.social podcast feed.

📣🎧It's been a tough year for civil-military relations, and the Iran War might make it even tougher. The @chalkboardpolitics.bsky.social team interviewed Peter Feaver to discuss. Find all episodes in the @goodauth.bsky.social podcast feed.

Humiliation or (increasingly futile) escalation. Those have always been the choices, they are still the choices. The only question now is what the political psychology of Trump himself will mean for the path he chooses. Declaring a piece of paper a "win" is getting harder, he's cornered and angry.

When @ldfreedman.bsky.social & Robert Kagan say Trump has no cards...

Four days ago the US claimed it was on the verge of signing a fully agreed peace deal. And the markets seem to buy it every time ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

This is the second time in four games the Knicks have put up 80 points in the first half. Their point totals have skyrocketed since the closing of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran isn’t budging an inch, if anything, they’re doubling down. The ball is in Trump’s court: he either strikes or caves. The Iranians aren’t giving him any other options.

Just one more invasion, then I’ll retire. For sure. One last score. It will turn everything right. I just need one more hit.

What the President of the United States says matters, and this communication is sickening.