Very good, informative post as always. And I agree about Ossoff, definitely got the look of someone who could try for President one day.

The midterm elections in US have become even more important than before. Dems should win House but until recently assumed couldn’t win Senate. Has this changed. Sam looks at 9 key states. £/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/the-lifeli...

“His basic problem, whatever his bones tell him, is that even if Trump wanted to declare the war over today and order a ceasefire then there is no guarantee that Iran would follow.” A brilliant essay from @ldfreedman.bsky.social on the war in Iran. samf.substack.com/p/the-split-...

The quality of this external analysis is in sharp contrast to the absurd carelessnesss of the principal actors

Short read: the Trump Administration has messed up spectacularly and has totally lost control of events - but that doesn’t mean Iran is winning. Cold, hard, deeply knowledgable analysis. Immensely worrying, thoroughly depressing, reading.

Such a brutally clear piece. Sell!

Latest post assesses current state of the war. Looks at the state of American decision-making, how it was caught out by Iranian response, the difficulty reopening Strait of Hormuz, and why hardliners in Iran may make it difficult to get a ceasefire. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/the-split-...

Latest post assesses current state of the war. Looks at the state of American decision-making, how it was caught out by Iranian response, the difficulty reopening Strait of Hormuz, and why hardliners in Iran may make it difficult to get a ceasefire. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/the-split-...

Let's be clear: you would not be pulling THAADs from South Korea and moving a Marine Expeditionary Unit from Japan to the Gulf two weeks after launching a war on Iran if you had properly anticipated the fallout it would be likely to cause.

"We can presume that when Donald Trump decides to end his Iran war, he will declare it a victory — whatever the reality on the ground." @ldfreedman.bsky.social for @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

DC friends, @ldfreedman.bsky.social, Mara Karlin, Michael O'Hanlon, and I will be talking strategy at The Brookings Institution on March 24. Lots to discuss... www.brookings.edu/events/us-st...

Labour is being squeezed from the left and right. @samfr.bsky.social looks at how it can fight back - and it requires more than a focus on the cost of living. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/fighting-b...?

Latest assessment on US/Israeli attack on Iran. The administration continues to give the impression that it is making it up as it goes along. The choices for the Iranian regime remain dire but it continues to show defiance and cause international economic turmoil. open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/m...?

“It is becoming increasingly hard to avoid the conclusion that the Trump administration has embarked on this operation without a plan, and is making it up as it goes along, as if they killed enough of the right people and destroyed enough Iranian assets everything would fall into place.”

Latest assessment on US/Israeli attack on Iran. The administration continues to give the impression that it is making it up as it goes along. The choices for the Iranian regime remain dire but it continues to show defiance and cause international economic turmoil. open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/m...?

New post just out: "Sovereignty for sale" The UK is uniquely exposed to the power of US tech monopolies - from Palantir to AI and cloud services. Why is it so dangerous? What are other countries doing? And what should we do? (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/s...

Trump is an ignorant dumbfuck who is putting our naval vessels and the personnel on them in direct and serious danger. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian...

New post just out "Is 'deliverism' dead?" A guest post from the brilliant @dmk1793.bsky.social on one of the main points of strategic confusion within the Labour party. Is winning just about delivery or more about narrative? (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/i...

I always benefit from reading @ldfreedman.bsky.social

Post from yesterday. Conclusion still stands. Israel/US want regime change but depend on Iranian people to finish the job. Regime, partially decapitated, fighting for its survival. As it lashes out regionally can it stay in control at home? (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/the-us-and...

First assessment of the US-Israeli strikes on Iran. They want regime change but leaving it to the Iranian people to change the regime. Regime fighting back by causing disruption in region, which may backfire. (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/the-us-and...

Some news on my next book.... www.thebookseller.com/rights/sam-f...

This is the piece I published on substack on 25 February 2022. Not everyone thought it would be over in a matter of days. samf.substack.com/p/a-reckless...

Latest from @samfr.bsky.social explains what the government is trying to do with its SEND White Paper and the pitfalls ahead. It provides a case study into how difficult it is to change any area of policy that affects many lives. (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/send-help

My new book - a collection of essays on strategists and strategy - is being published by OUP next week. Here is the intro to whet your appetite with a link at the end for subscribers to get a signed copy. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/o...?

"We must look past the drones, algorithms and other technological artefacts for the essential lesson from this war...Ukraine has shown us what humans, as flawed as we are, can achieve in their finest hour. This is the essential lesson from 1461 days of war." www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

You can catch @britishacademy.bsky.social Fellow @ldfreedman.bsky.social on Start the Week (catch up link below) in conversation with @adamrutherford.bsky.social previewing his upcoming book on strategy which is out on 2nd March www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m...

My new book - a collection of essays on strategists and strategy - is being published by OUP next week. Here is the intro to whet your appetite with a link at the end for subscribers to get a signed copy. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/o...?

Two issues linked by @samfr.bsky.social in his latest post - the tendency of politicians to assume that the problem is ‘comms’ rather than content, and the general challenge of getting ‘comms’ right when the media environment has become so fragmented. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/the-signal...

The usual very clear exposition from @ldfreedman.bsky.social Good news for Ukraine, but food for thought for any armed forces depending on a single commercial supplier for a critical capability, if that supplier is itself subject to the whim of one man. open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/l...

My latest post looks at how Russian forces came to lose access to Starlink and Telegram, why they lacked reliable satellite communications of their own, and the operational impact, including on the current counter-offensive. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/l...?

Fascinated by this. Follows the excellent article in the @samfr.bsky.social / @ldfreedman.bsky.social substack. Have thoughtful abundance-minded folk like @jamesomalley.co.uk written/said anything on this yet? Feels right up their street.

My latest post looks at how Russian forces came to lose access to Starlink and Telegram, why they lacked reliable satellite communications of their own, and the operational impact, including on the current counter-offensive. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/l...?

As Ukraine marks the 4th anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, CSIS experts look to the war’s past and future, examining its impacts on Ukraine, Russia, & the world as the conflict continues into a 5th year. See our analysis: https://www.csis.org/programs/four-years-later-russias-war-ukraine

A cut above everything else you read on planning.

Guest post today from @dsquareddigest.bsky.social on how to reframe the debate on planning , arguing for sorting out the contentious issues early on in the process to avoid lengthy and costly delays. This one is free. samf.substack.com/p/build-the-...

Answers from @ldfreedman.bsky.social from earlier in the week. bsky.app/profile/samf...

New post out: Why are Reform's poll ratings falling? How worried should be about Palantir? How long does Starmer have left? And lots more of your questions... Topics covered listed below. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/why-have-r...

Thanks to readers for so many questions - more than can be answered in one post. Topics covered include implications of Ukraine being able to counterattack now, why Putin keeps on going, threats to UK, China, arms control, and House of Dynamite (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/i...

No, I still can’t get this out of my head, and I keep trying to grasp the full abyss of this idiocy, unsuccessfully. Russia spent years, decades "fighting all of NATO," turning America into "radioactive ash" every night on state TV.

Assuming Starmer days as PM are numbered, Sam considers how he might be replaced and by whom, and what if any difference this will make to the way we are governed. (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/after-star...

There reasons why the U.S. administration might seek to rush along peace talks. But there are major risks with a rushed peace process, and these significantly outweigh any benefits of such a deal. As the saying goes, "if you want it bad, you get it bad." mickryan.substack.com/p/rushing-to...

Once had privilege of listening to Ian McKellen perform at Oxford. Seemed timely then - even more so now.

New post out: "The most dangerous man in America" Understanding "Trump's Prime Minister" Stephen Miller - the nexus of all the streams of right-wing thought and behaviour that embody the current regime. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...

If you have not yet subscribed, @ldfreedman.bsky.social Substack is a must. Insightful interview with Richard Moore, until September 2025 head of MI6. He is spot on regarding China. I noticed it over the years from Chinese students in Europe that Europe is seen as a museum populated by weaklings.

Our two part interview with Richard Moore, former head of MI6, produced a lot of fascinating and candid observations. The first part looked at how MI6 works and fits in with rest of government (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/how-mi6-wo...

New post out: "Putin is not getting an accurate picture" Part two of our fascinating interview with former MI6 Chief, Richard Moore. This time looking at working with the US under Trump, and what he makes of Putin, Xi and the situation in Iran. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/p...

Good interview with Richard Moore, in which he discusses the less well known work of "reports officers", as opposed to case officers. "Their job is to handle the material coming in from the field. They do all of that due diligence" samf.substack.com/p/how-mi6-wo...

New post out: "How MI6 works" We interviewed Richard Moore the man who was "C" - Chief of MI6 - until September. In part one we talked about MI6 operates - how does C work with the Prime Minister? Does he think there's a "deep state" etc... (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/h...

What is going on in the trilateral negotiations with US, Russia, and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi? Why do the Russians talk about a mythical deal supposedly agreed at the Alaska summit? Can Ukraine rely on US security guarantees? All in my latest post (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/g...?