Superb essay by Frank Hoffman on the rise and fall of the end of major war thesis.

As Sam says this was a fascinating interview to conduct. By going back to the origins of the 1979 revolution and what has happened since they provide essential context to current events.

New post: "Stolen Revolution" Coverage on Iran has focused on Trump, not what's going inside the country. So we talked to the authors of a brilliant new book on Iran's recent history about the war, the regime and the chances for change. (Free to read) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/s...

“American military thinking has enshrined the notion that hitting hard and fast will invariably lead to an enemy’s defeat and capitulation,” writes Lawrence Freedman. “That conviction has only been reinforced by AI. But the evidence of recent wars urges caution.”

New post: "What would Andy Burnham's government look like?" He still has to win the by-election but Westminster is already planning for a new PM. What would his cabinet + No. 10 look like? His policy agenda? The first six months incl the budget? (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...

My answers to subscribers’ questions. Many deal with Ukraine - including possibility of victory and Putin’s ignorance about the front. A recurring theme is loss of US capacity and competence and European ability to step forward to fill the gaps. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/h...?

New post: Is Andy Burnham overrated? Why are the Tories so relaxed about their dire election results? Do the BBC give Farage an easy ride? Answering lots of your questions. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/is-andy-bu...

Latest post looks at why Putin persist with a failed strategy against Ukraine, and why he needs Russia’s current, struggling offensive to succeed this year (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/p...?

Our tracker suggests it has suffered its first sustained net loss since October 2023

Can't say this enough, but Comment is Freed is the best subscription you can buy if you're interested in politics (and there are a lot of good ones about). Great analysis, which I don't always agree with, but which I know has a lot of depth.

Latest post looks at why Putin persist with a failed strategy against Ukraine, and why he needs Russia’s current, struggling offensive to succeed this year (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/p...?

It's from a post called "The Pivot" about how Labour would end up, in a slow and messy way, being more radical in govt. One of the ones I'm most proud of given it's mostly come true.

Are we doomed to see one PM after another struggle in quick succession or are the ways to do the job more effectively? Sam offers some advice. (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/why-do-pri...

New post: "Why do PMs keep failing?" We'll be on our seventh in a decade soon. It's not an impossible job + recent PMs have all been v flawed. But the job is unnecessarily hard because of how it's evolved. Here's how it could be made easier. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...

Higher education merger, anyone? 'Cranfield University in Bedfordshire will become part of King's College London from August 2027, although a new name has not yet been decided.'

This is the rough equivalent of Nazi Germany demanding that the Allies leave France in 1944 so that talks can start. But, even Putin knows the war only gets worse for him from here. www.kyivpost.com/post/76048

Ask me and @ldfreedman.bsky.social anything. Plus a summary of our recent posts. samf.substack.com/p/ask-us-any...

I've added a long update to my previous post on the exchange of proposals between US and Iran. The latest Iranian proposals shows how they have become more confident that Trump has boxed himself in and has no good options. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...?

New post: "Seven things we learnt from the elections" We found out a lot about how multi-party politics is working in Britain over the last few days. I look at the implications for all the main parties + the broader challenges for our system. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/seven-thin...

Trump’s chaotic messaging about a prospective peace deal and whether Epic Fury is really over continues. In this post I consider why a deal may be closer, because both sides need one, yet it remains elusive (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...?

As is so often the case with @ldfreedman.bsky.social (and @samfr.bsky.social), this is a wonderful combination of insight and elegant prose. There are plenty of sites with one or the other - or even a "pretty good" standard of both. But Sam and Lawrence absolutely nail both with alarming frequency.

Great analysis as usual. We’re thinking along similar lines. ⬇️

Trump’s chaotic messaging about a prospective peace deal and whether Epic Fury is really over continues. In this post I consider why a deal may be closer, because both sides need one, yet it remains elusive (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...?

Sam’s latest on the dangers of unregulated prediction markets, including the incentives to manipulate events to make bets come true (and another example of dubious Trump family dealings. (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/back-to-th...

I always enjoy @samfr.bsky.social's pieces and this is one of his very finest.

Russia’s economy is in a bad way, its army is struggling to advance, and Ukraine’s drone are regularly attacking targets inside Russia. Is Putin running out of options? My latest post looks at his predicament (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/i...?

If I’m the one who has to keep pointing out that this foreign policy emperor has no clothes, so be it. open.substack.com/pub/danieldr...

This is utterly fascinating because so many of the findings are counter intuitive.

New post just out: "Where's the centre?" I have an exclusive new poll which challenges conventional wisdom on one of the biggest questions in British politics. It turns out median voters aren't actually in the centre. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...

This week on the substack... The final installment of my local elections preview, with analysis and predictions for all the London boroughs. Includes links to previous posts covering all councils in England plus Welsh and Scottish elections. samf.substack.com/p/elections-...

I'm in @theobserveruk.bsky.social today looking at why so many unis are in financial trouble and what the government needs to do to save HE. observer.co.uk/news/columni...

Is the full extent of the current crisis appreciated? Not just the coming economic hit but also the impact of Trump’s erratic behaviour. All allies are adjust to US incompetence. Latest post argues this makes increased defence spending more urgent. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...?

New post just out: I talked to Alan Milburn on why the government is struggling, how politics has changed since he was in Blair's cabinet, and how he's proposing to tackle youth unemplyoment. (Free to read) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/m...

New post: "Elections 2026: London" In my final preview I've split London into ten different battlegrounds to show how the capital's politics is evolving. With predictions for each borough. In collaboration with the brilliant @londoncentric.media (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/elections-...

This is a long but fascinating read from @ldfreedman.bsky.social on how Ukraine has rapidly turned into a world leader in drone technology, and how that has got Russia worried.

Have the Ukrainians regained the lead in the drone race? The Russians seem to think so. In this post I look at the evidence that there has been a step change in Ukrainian capabilities. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/i...?

New post: "Elections 2026: The Five Battlegrounds" With national politics fragmenting I've sorted all councils up for election outside London into five groups to help explain how things are evolving. Incl predictions for all 104 councils. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/elections-...

Nice obituary of Pete Duncan, the legendary scholar and teacher of Russian politics. Generations of students and colleagues benefitted from his kindness, his knowledge, and his academic rigour. A unique, and uniquely valuable, scholar. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/a...

“War exacts a toll so severe that only the clearest and most necessary purposes can justify it. If…Iran is still in the fight and still able to exact major military and economic costs, then it is fair to ask what purpose this war truly serves.” warontherocks.com/tactical-suc...

With Orban comprehensively defeated in the Hungarian elections @samfr.bsky.social considers what lessons might be drawn in the wider struggle against the radical right (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/the-fall-o...

The great military historian Lawrence Freedman with an excellent summary of the causes of US defeat in Iran. Please read consider following. @ldfreedman.bsky.social samf.substack.com/p/the-causes...

This is my assessment of why Trump’s war went so badly wrong. Underestimating an enemy and a belief in a quick victory are familiar sources of failure, compounded in this sense by incredible ultimatums and delusional claims. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...?

This is my assessment of why Trump’s war went so badly wrong. Underestimating an enemy and a belief in a quick victory are familiar sources of failure, compounded in this sense by incredible ultimatums and delusional claims. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...?

“Rather than discrete events with a beginning, a middle, and an end, wars might be better understood as the result of poor and dysfunctional political relations that are difficult to manage by nonviolent means,” wrote Lawrence Freedman in a 2025 essay.

New post out: "Understanding MAGA" I look at the four different strands that make up MAGA philosophy (such as it is), the contradictions between them, and whether it can survive as a movement post Trump. (Free to read) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/u...

I enjoyed doing this podcast with the ‘Not Just Money’ podcast, discussing the Iran War and much else.Top Military Strategist: How The Iran War Is Breaking Global Stability |... youtu.be/K2UznnEedm4?... via @YouTube

As proposals start to emerge for a ceasefire in the Iran War what chances to they have for success and what might be needed to get Iran to open the Strait (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/a...?

Weekend reading: finished @ldfreedman.bsky.social’s On Strategists & Strategy, a delightfully eclectic collection of essays ranging from first person reminiscences to reflections on the implementation of strategy, Iraq, Ukraine and, with deadpan effect, the Barbie Movie.

I’ve just got back from a week in Washington DC, where Iran War main topic of discussion. I was struck by how the weakness of the administration means that it is ill equipped to deal south a crisis of this magnitude. samf.substack.com/p/trump-runs...