Prospects for ending war in Ukraine, future of Russia, role of China, use of small-yield nuclear weapons, future of defence industry - answering questions put by subscribers (£/free trial). open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...?

New post just out: Will the Greens' surge continue? Should Starmer sack Morgan McSweeney? Will Trump run for a third term? Answering lots of your questions. Here's what I cover open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...

Great summary from Sam of just how dire a state the criminal justice system is in — and the massive political and human risks that creates. We go through all the facts and figures in our Public Services Performance Tracker:

Sam illuminates the dire state of the criminal justice system and why it has to be a priority for reform. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/flashing-red?

New post just out: Why the criminal justice system should be top of No. 10's "shit list". No part of the public sector is more broken or brings with it greater political risk. As we saw these past two weeks. It desperately needs a new approach. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/f...

As the situation in Pokrovsk becomes critical, and AFU reinforces the pocket to stabilize the flanks, there's considerable attention now to how this battle is unfolding. A few thoughts on the situation. 1/ (DeepStateMap)

Viral video of crying Ukrainian soldier sent to front lines is fake Videos of a crying Ukrainian "conscript" have flooded European social media networks, particularly in Germany and Hungary, this week. The clip, however, appears to be created with help from Sora, OpenAI's new tool.

Just sent out our regular "ask us anything" post so subscribers can submit questions. Also some of the highlights from the substack over the last few months. (Free to read) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/a...

New post just out: "How to make government work" We have a guest post from one of the people who built the AI Security Institute on a rare UK success story. With important lessons for the rest of government. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/h...

New post just out: "Who might replace Starmer?" With pressure growing on the PM, there are a lot of conversations going on in Westminster about who could take over. Who are the contenders? Who's best placed to win? Would it make any difference? (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...

In which I explain how Trump’s announcement on nuclear testing was based on a misunderstanding of what Russia is up to, and why the US would be unable to start testing immediately even if it made any sense to do so. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...?

This was very cathartic to write, and I'm grateful to @samfr.bsky.social for giving me the space to try and set out just why the two-child limit must go, and go in its entirety [mini 🧵]

Cutting child poverty is obviously important as per this polling yesterday from @steveakehurst.bsky.social Child poverty increasing leads to the biggest loss of govt approval by an election in hyopthetical polling.

Happy Publication Day and congratulations to Dr. @kschake.bsky.social ! A brilliant scholar of civ-mil relations, her prose is joyful and well crafted, and her narrative, compelling. This is a foundational, urgently needed text. I cannot recommend more strongly. www.amazon.com/State-Soldie...

Is the Russian economy sufficiently in trouble to lead Putin to reappraise his war strategy? I look at the evidence in my latest post (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/u...?

At lunchtime today, we'll be exploring the policy implications of supporting Ukraine until the end, inspired by @ldfreedman.bsky.social's "Hennessy Lecture". You can book your place to hear @evieaspinall.bsky.social, @patporter76.bsky.social, @elkeschwarz.bsky.social and @drjamesstrong.bsky.social🔽

Is the Russian economy sufficiently in trouble to lead Putin to reappraise his war strategy? I look at the evidence in my latest post (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/u...?

The role played by strong historical memories in shaping a nation’s sense of identity and values, and how these are now challenged by the right, is explored by @samfr.bsky.social. WW2 and its aftermath no longer seem so relevant to younger generations. samf.substack.com/p/never-again

New post just out: "Never again?" On how the radical right are trying to change our collective memory about World War Two as part of their assault on the postwar order. And why that memory remains a critical defence against nationalism. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/n...

As the party system fragments in the UK is it time for proportional representation? Sam looks at the options and the implications. (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/is-pr-comi...

For the reasons why this is not at all surprising see my post ( £/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/deja-vu-al...

“to give readers new ways of thinking about war in this enthralling and entertaining book”. Lovely review in Foreign Affairs (and yes, being reviewed in Foreign Affairs feels very grown up indeed) from @ldfreedman.bsky.social www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/bloo...

There is no evidence to support claims of a big shift in the US position after the Trump-Putin call. In this post I explain why I don’t think much has changed and my scepticism about the proposed Budapest summit (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/d...?

There is no evidence to support claims of a big shift in the US position after the Trump-Putin call. In this post I explain why I don’t think much has changed and my scepticism about the proposed Budapest summit (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/d...?

I’d rather Sam did not do so much participant observation in hospitals but when he does he gets more insights into the problems of the NHS (this post is free). samf.substack.com/p/on-the-edg...?

"Magisterial" is over-used as a term, but as a survey of how we got here this deserves it. Trump had to choose between Israel and Qatar. He chose Qatar - on.ft.com/47iVjco via @FT

Brilliant piece by @cjayanetti.bsky.social on Comment Is Freed here

Also you can subscribe today for 25% off using the link in this post. bsky.app/profile/samf...

New post just out: Delighted to have a guest post today from the excellent @cjayanetti.bsky.social. "The 'something for nothing myth" Why screaming headlines about the net contribution of immigrants and the low-paid are profoundly wrong. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/the-someth...

Despite the lack of military breakthroughs Putin still talks of Ukraine’s imminent defeat. On what basis does he do so? Latest post considers his theory of victory. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/p...?

📣Conference | 11 Nov at @chathamhouse.org Among speakers: @ldfreedman.bsky.social, @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social, @aivazovska.bsky.social, @andriypzag.bsky.social, @drjademcglynn.bsky.social & others. 🔗More details & to register interest: www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/r...

Despite the lack of military breakthroughs Putin still talks of Ukraine’s imminent defeat. On what basis does he do so? Latest post considers his theory of victory. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/p...?

With Farage’s former colleague Nathan Gill guilty of taking money from Russia to promote its propaganda Sam looks at the wider connections between the radical right and Russia. (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/russia-and...

It was an honour to give the Hennessy Lecture at the @mileendinstitute.bsky.social on Wednesday. I assessed the commitments Western countries have made to Ukraine’s security and what might happen after a ceasefire. This is the text (and this post is free). samf.substack.com/p/as-long-as...

This is my explainer from last weekend on the origins of the Trump peace plan for Gaza. It explains how it got as far as it did and the challenges to come. (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/will-there...

Standing room only for @ldfreedman.bsky.social's superb "Hennessy Lecture" at the @mileendinstitute.bsky.social this evening, on "As long as it takes: What does it mean to commit to Ukraine's security?" Really good questions from the audience, too. Thanks to everyone who came.

Tonight, the @mileendinstitute.bsky.social will be hosting our next “Hennessy Lecture” when @ldfreedman.bsky.social will be discussing the UK’s commitment to Ukraine. A handful of tickets are still available, particularly for @qmul.bsky.social staff and students, so do join us if you can!

Will Reeves try to regain control of the nation’s finances in her next budget or just do enough to stay within her self-imposed rules. Sam looks at her options. Not for the faint-hearted. samf.substack.com/p/staying-al...

All you need to know about the Gaza peace plan, by @ldfreedman.bsky.social samf.substack.com/p/will-there...

New post from @ldfreedman.bsky.social "Will there finally be peace in Gaza?" A must read if you want to understand how we ended up with the proposed peace deal and what might happen next. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/will-there...

Latest post looks at the origins of Trump’s peace plan for Gaza, why Israel’s failed strike against Hamas in Doha made the difference, how it is going and the problems ahead. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...?

Bravo.

I wrote a short piece for the Observer on the attacks in Manchester. observer.co.uk/news/opinion...

This is up there with the best of Sam’s blog. Powerfully explanatory in terms of how Labour relates to white working class voters. And then, a practical guide on how to solve the apparent contradictions of the party, by focussing on areas of policy where non-zero sum gains can be made.

@kschake.bsky.social reflects on yesterday's address by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and President Trump at a gathering of the country's top military officials. www.lawfaremedia.org/article/hegs...

New post just out: "The story behind the polls" Today we have guest post from the brilliant @dylandifford.bsky.social breaking down which voters have moved where since the election and why. With loads of new data analysis and lovely charts. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...

I wrote about the weird all generals meeting, why it seems super-dumb, and why it’s causing me to recall the dumbest movie plots ever. danieldrezner.substack.com/p/the-most-b...

Looks like Putin's attempt to bully Moldova has failed. With 90% of votes counted, the pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) has a 20 point lead over the Russian-funded Patriotic Bloc open.substack.com/pub/arthursn...

Lots on the substack this week: Me on the increasing plausibility of a total Tory collapse, how it would happen and what it would mean for the political landscape: samf.substack.com/p/last-rites...

New post looks at what Russia is trying to achieve with its airspace provocations; the NATO and EU response; Trump’s apparent change of heart; and the latest ideas on helping Ukraine manage the financial burden of the war. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/russian-pr...