I always benefit from reading @ldfreedman.bsky.social

Post from yesterday. Conclusion still stands. Israel/US want regime change but depend on Iranian people to finish the job. Regime, partially decapitated, fighting for its survival. As it lashes out regionally can it stay in control at home? (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/the-us-and...

First assessment of the US-Israeli strikes on Iran. They want regime change but leaving it to the Iranian people to change the regime. Regime fighting back by causing disruption in region, which may backfire. (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/the-us-and...

Some news on my next book.... www.thebookseller.com/rights/sam-f...

This is the piece I published on substack on 25 February 2022. Not everyone thought it would be over in a matter of days. samf.substack.com/p/a-reckless...

Latest from @samfr.bsky.social explains what the government is trying to do with its SEND White Paper and the pitfalls ahead. It provides a case study into how difficult it is to change any area of policy that affects many lives. (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/send-help

My new book - a collection of essays on strategists and strategy - is being published by OUP next week. Here is the intro to whet your appetite with a link at the end for subscribers to get a signed copy. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/o...?

"We must look past the drones, algorithms and other technological artefacts for the essential lesson from this war...Ukraine has shown us what humans, as flawed as we are, can achieve in their finest hour. This is the essential lesson from 1461 days of war." www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

You can catch @britishacademy.bsky.social Fellow @ldfreedman.bsky.social on Start the Week (catch up link below) in conversation with @adamrutherford.bsky.social previewing his upcoming book on strategy which is out on 2nd March www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m...

My new book - a collection of essays on strategists and strategy - is being published by OUP next week. Here is the intro to whet your appetite with a link at the end for subscribers to get a signed copy. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/o...?

Two issues linked by @samfr.bsky.social in his latest post - the tendency of politicians to assume that the problem is ‘comms’ rather than content, and the general challenge of getting ‘comms’ right when the media environment has become so fragmented. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/the-signal...

The usual very clear exposition from @ldfreedman.bsky.social Good news for Ukraine, but food for thought for any armed forces depending on a single commercial supplier for a critical capability, if that supplier is itself subject to the whim of one man. open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/l...

My latest post looks at how Russian forces came to lose access to Starlink and Telegram, why they lacked reliable satellite communications of their own, and the operational impact, including on the current counter-offensive. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/l...?

Fascinated by this. Follows the excellent article in the @samfr.bsky.social / @ldfreedman.bsky.social substack. Have thoughtful abundance-minded folk like @jamesomalley.co.uk written/said anything on this yet? Feels right up their street.

My latest post looks at how Russian forces came to lose access to Starlink and Telegram, why they lacked reliable satellite communications of their own, and the operational impact, including on the current counter-offensive. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/l...?

As Ukraine marks the 4th anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, CSIS experts look to the war’s past and future, examining its impacts on Ukraine, Russia, & the world as the conflict continues into a 5th year. See our analysis: https://www.csis.org/programs/four-years-later-russias-war-ukraine

A cut above everything else you read on planning.

Guest post today from @dsquareddigest.bsky.social on how to reframe the debate on planning , arguing for sorting out the contentious issues early on in the process to avoid lengthy and costly delays. This one is free. samf.substack.com/p/build-the-...

Answers from @ldfreedman.bsky.social from earlier in the week. bsky.app/profile/samf...

New post out: Why are Reform's poll ratings falling? How worried should be about Palantir? How long does Starmer have left? And lots more of your questions... Topics covered listed below. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/why-have-r...

Thanks to readers for so many questions - more than can be answered in one post. Topics covered include implications of Ukraine being able to counterattack now, why Putin keeps on going, threats to UK, China, arms control, and House of Dynamite (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/i...

No, I still can’t get this out of my head, and I keep trying to grasp the full abyss of this idiocy, unsuccessfully. Russia spent years, decades "fighting all of NATO," turning America into "radioactive ash" every night on state TV.

Assuming Starmer days as PM are numbered, Sam considers how he might be replaced and by whom, and what if any difference this will make to the way we are governed. (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/after-star...

There reasons why the U.S. administration might seek to rush along peace talks. But there are major risks with a rushed peace process, and these significantly outweigh any benefits of such a deal. As the saying goes, "if you want it bad, you get it bad." mickryan.substack.com/p/rushing-to...

Once had privilege of listening to Ian McKellen perform at Oxford. Seemed timely then - even more so now.

New post out: "The most dangerous man in America" Understanding "Trump's Prime Minister" Stephen Miller - the nexus of all the streams of right-wing thought and behaviour that embody the current regime. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...

If you have not yet subscribed, @ldfreedman.bsky.social Substack is a must. Insightful interview with Richard Moore, until September 2025 head of MI6. He is spot on regarding China. I noticed it over the years from Chinese students in Europe that Europe is seen as a museum populated by weaklings.

Our two part interview with Richard Moore, former head of MI6, produced a lot of fascinating and candid observations. The first part looked at how MI6 works and fits in with rest of government (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/how-mi6-wo...

New post out: "Putin is not getting an accurate picture" Part two of our fascinating interview with former MI6 Chief, Richard Moore. This time looking at working with the US under Trump, and what he makes of Putin, Xi and the situation in Iran. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/p...

Good interview with Richard Moore, in which he discusses the less well known work of "reports officers", as opposed to case officers. "Their job is to handle the material coming in from the field. They do all of that due diligence" samf.substack.com/p/how-mi6-wo...

New post out: "How MI6 works" We interviewed Richard Moore the man who was "C" - Chief of MI6 - until September. In part one we talked about MI6 operates - how does C work with the Prime Minister? Does he think there's a "deep state" etc... (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/h...

What is going on in the trilateral negotiations with US, Russia, and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi? Why do the Russians talk about a mythical deal supposedly agreed at the Alaska summit? Can Ukraine rely on US security guarantees? All in my latest post (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/g...?

With the aid of chocolate I have brought myself to read the just-released National Defense Strategy. A few quick reactions: 1/7 media.defense.gov/2026/Jan/23/...

This is excellent. 100% required reading for anyone interested in public sector, Whitehall and/or civil service reform.

Why is it that UK government has more executive power with fewer constraints than other democratic countries yet continually complain that they can’t get anything done. @samfr.bsky.social explores the paradox and suggests remedies. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/who-runs-b...

Great to have @verityharding.bsky.social on substack - one of the most insightful writers about AI.

the most extraordinary piece of reporting: a year inside the FBI (and yes there are implications here for British security- the Five Eyes bit is bonkers) www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

Death toll in Afghanistan when NATO answered the US’s call: - 453 Britons - 158 Canadians - 89 French - 59 Germans - 53 Italians - 44 Danes - 17 Spaniards “Stayed a little back, off the front lines “! No one in the media will call him out over this lie or any of the others he spouts.

With the regrettable near-extinction of quality analysis in conventional media, @samfr.bsky.social's site is a very strong substitute. @ldfreedman.bsky.social's piece on Greenland crisis is far away best I have read.

It's nice to have these very calm assessments, which in no way diminish the negative impacts of recent events.

“Hedging is starting to become the norm, even if the alternatives to working with the US are often unattractive.” The great @ldfreedman.bsky.social

The antidote to "nothing will ever be the same-ism" patiently explaining Trump in the wider framework of change but that NATO is worth saving. Much needed.

Really good, as usual, on the real changes that lie behind the Greenland furore. bsky.app/profile/ldfr...

Latest post tries to catch up with the back and forth on Greenland. I argue that rather this being a rupture (as Mark Carney suggested) the European response shows a transition to a rebalanced transatlantic relationship with diminished US power. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...?

Fantastic piece - I hadn't realised that two of the disruptive forces in our party system literally start *in the same family*. What could be more British than that?

Why is Donald Trump changing his mind every five minutes and saying completely mad stuff an embarrassment for Keir Starmer? It feels like it should chiefly be seen as an embarrassment for the United States.

2025 was a good year for the Greens. With a new leader they established themselves as a challenger to Labour from the left. How far can they go? In his new post @samfr.bsky.social considers their potential and the relevance of their policy choices. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/whats-the-...

New post just out: What's the Greens' Ceiling? Can they do to Labour what the Conservatives have done to Reform? I look at a lot of data to assess whether the Greens can get into first place in the "left bloc" - and what's holding them back. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...

We trace the concept from our early work inspired by @ldfreedman.bsky.social to its expansion. Strategic narratives are not just top-down tools: they are multi-level, contested, often ambiguous, and shaped by formation, projection, and reception across states, institutions, and publics.

🗣️ Just before the holidays, @ldfreedman.bsky.social and @samfr.bsky.social interviewed Prof John Bew about his experience in government and the development of British foreign policy Their captivating conversation is now available via Substack (free to read) samf.substack.com/p/interview-...