Its possible that the Tories will completely collapse. What happens then? @samfr.bsky.social explores the implications for the other parties. Does Reform take them over? Should Lib Dems move more to centre right to occupy abandoned ground? (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/last-rites

Trump’s recent post about #Ukraine was a major shift in his strategic narrative about the war. There are some good words, but words without action are pointless. My assessment, exploring potential impacts on the trajectory of the war, is available now. mickryan.substack.com/p/one-hell-o...

Latest post returns to the battle for Pokrovsk in which both sides have invested heavily. The stakes are high - Russia needs to show something for this year’s constant and costly offensives. (£/free trial). samf.substack.com/p/one-last-p...

Latest post returns to the battle for Pokrovsk in which both sides have invested heavily. The stakes are high - Russia needs to show something for this year’s constant and costly offensives. (£/free trial). samf.substack.com/p/one-last-p...

My grandchildren feature (in a good way) in this latest post by @samfr.bsky.social on TikTok’s combination of distraction and political influence. I was totally ignorant of all of this and now have something else to be worried about. (£/free trial). samf.substack.com/p/three-seco...

As Trump begins his state visit in UK I explore the difficulties countries face in trying to work with an unserious president, looking at S Korea, India, and Brazil, as well as UK. (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/unserious-...

As Trump begins his state visit in UK I explore the difficulties countries face in trying to work with an unserious president, looking at S Korea, India, and Brazil, as well as UK. (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/unserious-...

New post just out: "Burn it down vs build it up" With the right radicalising by the day - how can the argument be won on the key dividing line in politics? (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/b...

Read this from @samfr.bsky.social on a Reform UK govt’s use and abuse of power. And the potential consequences. 👇

New post from Sam explores the legal and political implications of a Reform government trying to implement its deportation plans (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/the-route-...

Awful news about the death of the great Conor Gearty. Perhaps the kindest and most encouraging law professor imaginable. A dreadful loss to the study of civil liberties and constitutional law.

📢 Out Now 'Uncomfortable but essential reading.' — @ldfreedman.bsky.social 'How the United States Would Fight China' by @hoanssolo.bsky.social draws on superb research to reveal the significant risk to the US in a potential conflict with China. Get 25% off w/code GADY25 ➡️ tinyurl.com/yuvttv3e

“Poland’s military said there had been “an unprecedented violation of Polish airspace by drone-type objects” and said an operation was under way to identify and neutralise them.” on.ft.com/4pcpE4B Poland shoots down Russian drones

Analysis of the Israeli strike on Hamas leaders in Qatar. As it failed to kill its targets and annoyed Donald Trump what are the implications for attempts to end the war? (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/n...?

On 8 October, we will be hosting our fourth distinguished "Hennessy Lecture" at @qmul.bsky.social. We're delighted to announce that @ldfreedman.bsky.social will be lecturing on Europe's commitment to Ukraine and asking what can be done to make it more credible. www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/as-long-as...

@ldfreedman.bsky.social wrote an excellent piece on this last week, going into more depth. Arguably this has become only more prescient as Russia seeks to form a stronger economic alliance with India after the US’ spectacular act of self-harm in pushing Modi further away over oil purchases.

Also a post from @ldfreedman.bsky.social on the energy war and how Ukraine are ramping up efforts to undermine Russia's oil industry with potentially significant impact. samf.substack.com/p/the-energy...

Sam explains the strategy behind yesterday’s cabinet reshuffle and the risks it involves for Starmer. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/rayner-and...

New post just out: "Rayner and the Reshuffle" What's Starmer (and McSweeney) trying to achieve with the reshuffle? How might the deputy leadership election play out? (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/r...

Post on the reshuffle and everything else coming to your inbox in the morning if you're signed up. samf.substack.com

Lots of reasons to read this @ldfreedman.bsky.social blog (answering questions from readers with plenty about 🇺🇦 including mapping out the areas of uncertainty) but also about other areas of international interest - eg Trump’s designs on Greenland/ threats to 🇨🇦 samf.substack.com/p/what-dont-...

New post just out: Part 2 of answering your questions - this time from @ldfreedman.bsky.social on Ukraine, what will change Putin's mind, the threat to NATO. He covers all of this: (£/free trial - but with a long free bit) samf.substack.com/p/what-dont-...

New post just out What don’t we know about the war in Ukraine? What might change Putin’s mind? How big is threat to NATO? Answering your questions Part 2. samf.substack.com/p/what-dont-... And lots more inc: Greenland, drones, Israel,China, and humanitarian Intervention. (£/free trial)

Well worth reading this whole thought provoking @samfr.bsky.social blog delving into questions that are troubling most people on the left/ centre left.

Answers from @ldfreedman.bsky.social covering Ukraine, Israel and lots of other topics coming on Thursday. Sign up for a free trial now to get both posts.

New post just out: "Will Reform win? Can Starmer turn things round? Will Reeves survive the budget?" Answering your questions.... I cover the following topics: open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...

V interesting. We don’t design refineries with bombs in mind. Storage tanks on fire look spectacular, but hit distillation columns, crackers, incoming pipes, then not much is being refined (even crude oil is refined) Add losing ctrl building and you likely have some very stressed operations managers

Latest post examines the continuing Ukrainian campaign against Russian oil refineries, which has caused shortages and price rises, looking at its history and assessing its impact (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/the-energy...

Latest post examines the continuing Ukrainian campaign against Russian oil refineries, which has caused shortages and price rises, looking at its history and assessing its impact (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/the-energy...

Just sent out an "ask us anything" post - our regular Q+A for paid subscribers. Also a summary on what we've been writing about this summer and what's coming up over the next few months. open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/a...

Fascinating and illuminating piece by @samfr.bsky.social whose Comment is Freed substack with @ldfreedman.bsky.social is required reading for me open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...

The many bad political and economic developments we face have many causes but looming large is the great financial crisis of 2008-9. Sam notes that its importance is often missed and demonstrates its continuing impact. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/the-financ...

My new post looks at the battle for Pokrovsk, the challenges created for Ukraine by manpower shortages, and also how both sides adapt to fighting when large formations can easily be spotted and attacked. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...?

This is a very detailed and interesting post which shows that parallels with the FWW run deeper than trenches and mud. The small-group infiltration tactics @ldfreedman.bsky.social describes here were a feature of 1918 on the western front. The Australians called it ‘peaceful penetration’ 1/2

My new post looks at the battle for Pokrovsk, the challenges created for Ukraine by manpower shortages, and also how both sides adapt to fighting when large formations can easily be spotted and attacked. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...?

New post from @samfr.bsky.social examines how Trump is emulating China’s approach to the regulation and control of large companies, and the consequential dangers (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/capitalism...

I used to subscribe to Stratfor for geopolitical updates. Good, but quite pricey & from event to analysis often took a bit of time Currently enjoying Lawrence’s insights; informative, frequent, sober, & a rolling narrative Trump should be approached first & foremost through these opening few lines:

Excellent analysis from @ldfreedman.bsky.social: "so long as the Europeans stay solid behind Zelenskyy, which they did at in Washington, Trump can’t impose Putin’s will."

This is excellent. NB: “Never assume you know what Trump is going to do or say next because it is unlikely he does. Take seriously what he says at any time because that probably accurately reflects what he is thinking, but some of his thoughts can be very transitory and are soon replaced by others.”

The usual very clear exposition from @ldfreedman.bsky.social The first three paragraphs really say it all.

New post looks at yesterday’s events at White House. At Anchorage the dial moved in Putin’s direction. At the White House it moved back to Zelenskyy and Europe. Has much changed? (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/e...?

GOOD TWEET. GOOD MOOD. FIGHT.

“Trump has adopted Russia’s position,” writes one Russian paper today. “He will present his peace ultimatum to Zelensky. And there’s no doubt it’s an ultimatum.” My review of today’s Russian papers. #ReadingRussia

Thoughts ahead of Trump’s meeting with Zelenskyy & European leaders. First, Trump wants both sides to stop fighting, but is only prepared to put pressure on Ukraine. If Putin had any worries on that score, the Alaska summit will have reassured him. Sanctions are postponed, again. 1/16

One of the things Zelenskyy and his European posse should insist on before they get into substantive discussions at White House is proof of any claimed Russian concessions, including those now reported by Witkoff on security guarantees. Supposed past concessions have been wishful thinking.

One of the best things about our substack is that we have probably the best comment section on the Internet. Only available to subscribers so not much rage and a lot of insightful comment. (E.g. Roderic is the former UK ambassador to Russia).

Damn! @ldfreedman.bsky.social got there with 'Half-baked Alaska' before I could. Anyway, excellent piece, & excellent comment by Roderic Lyne below it. Putin can now be confident that Trump will not put him under additional pressure; Zelenskyy has good reason to fear another ambush in DC on Monday.

Initial assessment of the Alaska summit and Trump’s sudden conversion to peace settlement before ceasefire. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/half-baked...

Guest post today from @dmk1793.bsky.social on the social, economic, and political impact of low turnout in the UK and what can be done about it. (Free). samf.substack.com/p/is-low-tur...?

My latest post on the prospects for the Alaska summit. The whole debate about breakthroughs and sellouts is based on Trump being persuaded that there was a new Russian position which turns out to be a fantasy. (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/baked-alaska