It has been hectic tracking events in the skies & on the ground in #Iran as well as Iranian retaliatory strikes against Israel and other nations in the Middle East. In this article, I look at the implications of the new war for #Ukraine, and the Pacific theatre. mickryan.substack.com/p/the-new-ir...

“Wars are full of uncertainty. There is never certainty in war about victory or the direction that a conflict will take. The new war against Iran is no different.” mickryan.substack.com/p/iran-and-u....

This week, J.D. Vance stated "the idea that we’re going to be in a Middle Eastern war for years with no end in sight — there is no chance that will happen." But short wars, regardless of the intentions of those who order them, can easily become long wars. mickryan.substack.com/p/iran-and-u...

As peace talks continue and the U.S. pushes for compromise, one proposal keeps returning: Ukraine should withdraw from the remainder of Ukrainian-controlled Donetsk Oblast. The Kyiv Independent’s Francis Farrell explains why the Battle of Donbas remains at the center of the peace process.

There’s a lot of things that need to be said today. But there’s one main one: Thank you Ukraine. We see you. We know what you’ve done for us. We know what we owe you. We know you will win and take your place as a central defender of the free world.

“The key will be directly influencing Xi’s calculus. Military deterrence, exercises & the revelation of new capabilities, will be of little use if China’s military leadership is either too confident to be intimidated, or too intimidated by Xi to deliver bad news.” warontherocks.com/2026/02/the-...

“The reality is that the war in Ukraine has long ceased to be just Ukrainian history. It has become the laboratory of the future. And, like any laboratory, it doesn't ask if we are ready for the experiment.” Zaluzhnyi on 4 years of war. www.pravda.com.ua/eng/columns/...

"We must look past the drones, algorithms and other technological artefacts for the essential lesson from this war...Ukraine has shown us what humans, as flawed as we are, can achieve in their finest hour. This is the essential lesson from 1461 days of war." www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

“We’re not the Ukrainians. We don’t need to be exactly like them, but these kinds of insights are valuable for military organisations that want to fight 21st-century wars, not lose by fighting 20th-century wars.” My discussion in The @australian about learning from #Ukraine. archive.is/VeLHj

"This is a war where a free people determined that they would not permit the forces of dark authoritarianism to overwhelm their history, their culture, their freedoms and their future prosperity." mickryan.substack.com/p/four-years...

make that Pauline Shanks Kaurin, @queenofthinair.bsky.social 🙂

This looks interesting. www.csis.org/events/four-...

"As we approach the fourth anniversary of Russia commencing its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, only one possible conclusion is possible: the Ukraine War will continue through spring 2026 and very likely beyond that." Read my full update here: mickryan.substack.com/p/four-years...

“The main thing we took away from all of this was that we need to work with worst-case scenarios much more than we did before.” A war foretold: how the CIA and MI6 got hold of Putin’s Ukraine plans and why nobody believed them. www.theguardian.com/world/ng-int...

"Eventually shock wears off, responses are developed & counterpunches delivered. This will be the case with the Starlink shutdown. Ukraine will have limited time to exploit the opportunities of the degraded C2 environment now endured by Russian ground forces." mickryan.substack.com/p/starlink-s...

"Discussions focused on practical issues and the mechanics of possible solutions." A limited update on the latest peace talks in Geneva. kyivindependent.com/ukraine-russ...

"At some point, Putin will have to reckon with the failure of his strategic bombing campaign against Ukraine’s cities and the slow-rolling military failure that is Russia’s bloody ground campaign." An update of the big #Ukraine & Pacific issues this week. mickryan.substack.com/p/are-you-re...

“Personnel purges coexist with, and may even facilitate, accelerating PLA capability development. In today’s China, multiple things are true at once. Fixating on “tree” removal risks missing flourishing “forest” growth.” fairbank.fas.harvard.edu/research/blo...

"Russia’s approach to AI-enabled command and control reflects a decisive shift away from abstract, large-scale modernization concepts and toward solving concrete battlefield problems." An excellent new report from Kateryna Bondar at @CSIS on AI and Russian C2. www.csis.org/analysis/how...

“The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have shown that perhaps the most transformative aspect of modern conflict has not been drones or AI, but the power of new, technology-supported learning and adaptation systems.” www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

“AI is going to keep changing, and fast. The models that exist today will be obsolete in a year…The people who come out of this well won't be the ones who mastered one tool. They'll be the ones who got comfortable with the pace of change itself.” shumer.dev/something-bi...

"Leaders who thrive in the Age of AI will be those who can exploit their unique human skills coupled with the agile use of algorithmic augmentation. They will use AI to enhance their thinking, not displace it." Dr Frank Hoffman, on AI and critical thinking. mickryan.substack.com/p/ai-and-cri...

NEW: Ukraine has begun planning presidential elections alongside a referendum on any peace deal with Russia, after the Trump administration pressed Kyiv to hold both votes by May 15 or risk losing proposed US security guarantees w/ @henryjfoy.ft.com @maxseddon.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/50d3...

There reasons why the U.S. administration might seek to rush along peace talks. But there are major risks with a rushed peace process, and these significantly outweigh any benefits of such a deal. As the saying goes, "if you want it bad, you get it bad." mickryan.substack.com/p/rushing-to...

“As the first strategy of its kind, it will ensure that future arms sales prioritize American interests by using foreign purchases and capital to build American production and capacity.” The new U.S. arms transfer strategy has just been released. www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...

A short-term peace agreement in the coming months only gets in the way of Putin’s strategy. Putin is only using them as a tool to buy time to implement his strategy & convince the Trump administration the only direction for the war is negative for Ukraine. mickryan.substack.com/p/ukraine-pe...

My discussion with Nataliia Lutsenko about the currect direction of the war in Ukraine, on War & Politics 24. www.youtube.com/watch?v=wh6W...

“The familiar old world order is disappearing. But no cohesive new global operating system has emerged to replace it. Nations now exist in an interregnum as they attempt to navigate the roiling and dangerous seas of a post–Pax Americana world.” My latest. www.cfr.org/councilofcou...

Another terrific article from @mollymckew.bsky.social

"For PLA planners, the overarching lesson is an uncomfortable one. It is the realization that space support can no longer be treated as a specialized rear-area function, but must be viewed as a frontline contest." Chinese learning about space ops from the #Ukraine War. jamestown.org/pla-assessme...

⚡️Update: 'Unprovoked terrorist strike' — Russia attacks bus carrying Ukrainian civilian miners, killing at least 12, injuring 16. The attack marks "the largest single loss for DTEK since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion," CEO Maksym Timchenko said.

"There is one message that we should take away from the current round of talks to end the war in Ukraine: Putin does not want the war to end right now." My latest update on war and strategic competition. mickryan.substack.com/p/putin-cann...

“What distinguished this iteration was not just the scale or geometry of the activity, but the depth and coherence of the narrative campaign that unfolded alongside it.” ⁦‪@TaiwanMonitor‬⁩ tsm.schar.gmu.edu/justice-miss...

“The 2026 National Defense Strategy appears to have been drafted not by serious people but by Pentagon officials eager to curry favor with an imperious president and terrified of getting their talking points wrong.” www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...

“If we continue to show disdain for our allies, if we fail to appreciate their contribution to our national security and greater global stability, we may find ourselves fighting alone someday. And trust me, war is never a contest you want to fight alone.” www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...

If America & Taiwan can build the drone-based Hellscape concept for Taiwan's defence, there is no reason to believe the Chinese have not learned and begun to develop their own oceanic barrier concepts. Oceanic drone barriers may be coming to the Pacific soon. mickryan.substack.com/p/oceanic-ba...

Russian drones hit a passenger train in the Kharkiv region and struck Odesa again as Kyiv braces for harsh blackouts in extreme cold. Ukraine answered with air defense interceptions and fresh strikes on Russian systems, while negotiations remain tangled in territorial pressure.

My conversation with @miahhe.bsky.social ‬⁩on how emerging technologies are reshaping war, alliances, and societies at a moment of profound global uncertainty. ts.transistor.fm/episodes/cha...

“The divide between Zhang and Xi no longer centered on debate or planning and instead shifted to execution and direct noncompliance. This problem was clearly visible across the PLA, and it posed a serious threat to Xi’s authority.” jamestown.org/zhang-youxia...

A useful look at different aspects of NATO defence spending from ⁦‪Atlantic Council. www.atlanticcouncil.org/commentary/t...

"The current chaos, emblematic of the interregnum between the post World War Two order and a new global order yet to emerge, will probably continue for some time to come." mickryan.substack.com/p/davos-don-...

Happy Australia Day everyone. I am grateful for the many opportunities this amazing country has given me and my family. We are not a perfect country, and have our challenges, but we are always aspiring to get there. It was my privilege to serve it in the Army for so long.

The past week has seen an array of events that are indicative of the tumultuous, post-Pax Americana era we are living through. The current chaos, emblematic of the interregnum between the post World War Two order and a new global order yet to form, will probably continue for some time to come. 1/5

Another terrific episode of the ⁦‪@schoolofwarpod‬⁩ featuring a discussion on America’s defence industrial base. podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/s...

“The Chinese view on Taiwan changed significantly in 2025…The fundamental driver of this new assessment is…the perception that President has little interest in defending Taiwan militarily. China sees an opportunity that may not arise again down the road.” www.foreignaffairs.com/china/perfec...

"It has become clear in the past year that our pleasant post-WW2 existence, and network of relationships, has been winding down. The 1st step in addressing this situation is having the intellectual honesty & moral courage to correctly diagnose the situation." mickryan.substack.com/p/the-transi...

“We are taking the sign out of the window. The old order is not coming back. We should not mourn it. Nostalgia is not a strategy. But from the fracture, we can build something better, stronger, and more just. This is the task of the middle powers.” globalnews.ca/news/1162087...

“Trump’s domestic political gift is the feral instinct for weakness that characterizes most authoritarians. That instinct is shakier in international affairs, but it shapes the way in which he views the world.” www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...

There is a lot to dig into with this latest post by President Trump. To visualize just how badly this could go wrong, I recently published a short story called The Greenland Expedition, which you can read at the link: mickryan.substack.com/p/the-greenl...

A terrific episode of the Last Line of Defense podcast with Seth Jones and David Shedd about the large scale theft of intellectual property by China. @CSIS www.csis.org/podcasts/las...