The last few years have seen many examples of wartime adaptation. This has occurred in #Ukraine as well as the Middle East. We have also seen nations in Europe, North America and Asia seek to learn and conduct peacetime adaptation. But there is a 3rd form of #adaptation that is crucial. 1/4 🧵

My regular update on #Ukraine and global conflict is now available. This week: U.S. deep strike target data for Ukraine, more drones over Europe, the Pacific and my Big Five recommended war reads. mickryan.substack.com/p/deep-strik...

I have just posted my regular update on #Ukraine and global conflict. This week: U.S. deep strike target data for Ukraine, more drones over Europe, the Pacific and my Big Five recommended war reads. 1/5 🇺🇦🧵

“The analysis challenges long-held assumptions about US Army superiority and sets a foundation for future research.” More Than a Numbers Game: Comparing US and Chinese Landpower in the Pacific ssi.armywarcollege.edu/SSI-Media/Re...

While creativity and innovation are always to be encouraged in military institutions, this appears to show Russia is now engaged in a reverse Revolution in Military Affairs! ⁦‪@KyivPost‬⁩ www.kyivpost.com/post/61219

This predisposition of many politicians and other members of ‘the elite’ to not challenge existing dogma about security affairs is hardly a new idea. It has occurred throughout history. But it can have catastrophic outcomes when it happens. 1/3 🧵

My conversation on Times Radio about the latest developments in the war in #Ukraine, why Putin cannot win this war, is now available. youtube.com/watch?v=tCUo...

Got a bit more reading done. Crashed by @adamtooze.bsky.social excellent, published in 2018 still feels relevant and shows how long the shadow of the 2008 crash looms. The War for Ukraine by @warinthefuture.bsky.social another excellent read to understand strategies and adaptations on both sides.

My regular update on global conflict is now available. It has been another huge week in international affairs, the war in #Ukraine and strategic competition in the Pacific. 1/5 🧵🇺🇦 (Image: @DefenceAust)

It was a privilege to speak on the transformation drivers of AI, autonomy and adaptation for military institutions at today’s @scsp_ai #AI exchange in Austin, Texas.

Trump’s recent post about #Ukraine was a major shift in his strategic narrative about the war. There are some good words, but words without action are pointless. My assessment, exploring potential impacts on the trajectory of the war, is available now. mickryan.substack.com/p/one-hell-o...

I was delighted to be able to join ⁦‪Aaron Maclean‬⁩ again on the awesome ⁦‪School of War podcast‬⁩ to discuss #Ukraine, and a framework for translating Ukraine lessons for application in the Pacific theatre. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/s...

A good piece on the drone & missile defence #adaptation battle in the skies over #Ukraine. united24media.com/war-in-ukrai...

“Ukraine’s relentless drone bombardment of Russia’s oil and gas industry has cut deeply into production of retail fuels, triggering supply chain shortages and even empty fuel stations, and angering motorists across the country.” The impact of Ukraine’s strategic strikes. www.kyivpost.com/post/60481

To overcome the challenge of the current Adaptation War will take deeper learning collaboration within the Department of Defense, and between the military, intelligence and other national security agencies of other allies and partner nations. 1/3 🧵

For some time now, a debate has been underway in Australia about the appropriate level of defence spending. In this article for the @LowyInstitute, I examine what a 3.5% of GDP defence budget might look like, & what the priorities might be. www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

“Putin’s escalation in the skies over Poland is an unmistakable signal that NATO’s credibility is under threat…a new approach to engagement with the Kremlin that projects strength and resolve is required.” www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrain...

Ghost Fleet, Ten Years Later: An Interview with P.W. Singer and August Cole warontherocks.com/2025/09/ghos...

“It is often said that the most powerful form of deception is self-deception. We should not deceive ourselves into thinking that what happened to Russia and Iran couldn’t happen to us.” Despite our tech, we are still susceptible to deception & surprise. wapo.st/41Si84S

For some time now, a debate has been underway in Australia about the appropriate level of defence spending. In this article for the Lowy Institute, I examine what a 3.5% of GDP defence budget might look like, & what the priorities might be for a bigger budget. www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

My weekly update on war and competition has just been published. This week: Russia's drone attack on Poland, a busy week of developments in the Pacific and my Big Five reads. Here We Go! 1/5 🧵🇺🇦

“Junior officers are often dismissed as inexperienced or overly idealistic – especially in strategic headquarters…In an organisation already struggling with retention, this misalignment of values has consequences.” Great, honest piece. cove.army.gov.au/article/dust...

“While the parade is a coded warning that the West must rearm, we should perhaps be relieved the scoundrel nations still think that big parades designed to terrify will do the job for them.” The politics of a military parade, by Peter Caddick-Adams‬⁩ engelsbergideas.com/notebook/the...

My latest interview with Nataly at War and Politics. youtu.be/cLtoxgHePBg

Recently I addressed a conference about how we can learn from Australia’s experience of the Pacific War. I focused on two key topics: national mobilisation & political leadership, and how this can inform current political decision-making about national security. mickryan.substack.com/p/the-pacifi...

NEW: Russian Security Council Chairperson Medvedev directly threatened Finland and used language that mirrors the Kremlin’s false justifications for its invasions of Ukraine as part of an ongoing Kremlin effort to threaten NATO states and justify future Russian aggression. Other Key Takeaways ⬇️

I have just published my weekly update on conflict and competition in #Ukraine and the Pacific. This week, the Coalition of the Willing, Putin's 'no' to peace talks and lots of developments from the Pacific theatre. 1/5 🧵🇺🇦 (Image: @defenceu)

⚡️Update: 2 killed, 17 injured in Russia's overnight attack on Kyiv. The number of injured victims has again risen to 17 amid Russia's large-scale attack on residential buildings in Kyiv, Mayor Vitali Klitschko said. Seven people have been hospitalized as a result of the attack.

"The future will...be won by the side whose people and institutions can best execute the timeless human cycle of adaptation. Winning the war within our own minds is the prerequisite for winning the wars of the future." @warontherocks.bsky.social warontherocks.com/2025/09/the-...

"Restoring the ‘Department of War’ will sharpen the focus of this Department." I have worked alongside U.S. military personnel for many years - they have always had a sharp focus on the security of America & its people. The name change won't change this. www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

It was a pleasure to join @LyndaKinkade on @CNN this afternoon to discuss the Victory Day parade held in Beijing today.

As we await the unveiling of new & evolved PLA systems at the Big Beijing Parade (BBP) today, ⁦‪@CSIS‬⁩ have published an excellent set of graphs about Chinese military growth. A caveat: this doesn’t cover integrated warfighting capability. www.csis.org/analysis/chi...

“What we’re witnessing,” Tai Ming Cheung said, “is the deepening militarization of China’s economy.” www.kharon.com/brief/unitre...

Tomorrow's big parade in Beijing will preview new Chinese weapon systems. But the military 'bling' may also provide insights into new and evolved PLA operating concepts for drones and missiles. 1/7

I have just published my regular update on global conflict. This week: Gerasimov's Ukraine war update, the aerial campaigns of Ukraine & Russia, Japan's missile moves, China's big parade and my Big Five reads. 1/5 🇺🇦🧵 (Image: @DefenceU)

“Almost nobody in Ukraine believes that handing over additional unconquered territory in the Donbas would satisfy Putin’s imperial ambitions or remove the threat of future Russian invasions.“ Another good piece from @mykolabielieskov.bsky.social www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrain...

The latest update on Ukraine from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social

Good. Keep smashing them, #Ukraine.

"Every member of NATO is now hitting the alliance's previous minimum defense spending threshold. But only Poland, Lithuania and Latvia are currently meeting the military alliance's new target." DW www.dw.com/en/nato-memb...

Ukraine's strategic strikes are increasingly hurting Russia and its economy. This is the result of a three-year long, adaptive approach by Ukrainian military, intelligence and industry organisations to develop a modern long-range strike capacity. 1/3 🧵🇺🇦

“Vladimir Putin is in trouble. Isolated, outmanoeuvred, and stalled on the battlefield, Russia is tottering financially and militarily, while Zelensky's Ukraine continues to hold the upper hand.” ⁦‪A good piece from ⁦‪@EngelsbergIdeas‬⁩ Engelsberg ideas.com/essays/russias-reckoning-is-coming/

I have just published my regular update on global conflict. This week: Ukraine and Pacific updates as well as my Big Five war and #NATSEC reads. To all my readers from Ukraine & the Ukrainian diaspora around the world, Happy Independence Day 2025. 1/5 🇺🇦🧵

NEW: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov used an English-language interview with a US outlet to reiterate the Kremlin's explicit rejection of US-proposed initiatives for peace in Ukraine. 🧵 (1/5) Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 24, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar082425

Happy Independence Day 2025, Ukraine. 🇺🇦 Slava Ukraini!

Proud and excited that two of my books, “War Transformed” and “White Sun War” are on the 2025 Commandant of the U.S. Marine Corps Reading List. @casematepublishers.bsky.social @usni.org www.mca-marines.org/2025-command...

Ukraine has developed a world-class long-range strike capability. My latest assessment explores this topic. Their strikes in the past few months, especially against the Russian oil industry, reinforce that Russia cannot win this war. 1/6 🇺🇦🧵

"If Trump were as good a dealmaker as he claims to be, he would be focusing far more on exploiting Russia’s weaknesses, than on basking in the chumminess of his KGB-trained counterpart, which is nothing more than deception." A fine piece from @EliotACohen www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...

Nearly 1000 drones and missiles launched against #Ukraine in the past 72 hours, including over 600 in the last 24 hours.

Very proud to have just published my latest research, the translation of Ukraine lessons for application in the Pacific theatre, with the Australian Army Research Centre. 1/2 researchcentre.army.gov.au/library/occa...

Just finished this conversation with ⁦‪@AaronBMacLean‬⁩ at the School of War podcast‬⁩ where we discuss the war in #Ukraine, the Alaska Summit and today’s Trump-Zelenskyy meeting at the White House. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/s...