This says a lot about where the world is at present… www.politico.eu/article/fran...

A good update from @covertshores.bsky.social on the chronology of the war in the Black Sea. www.hisutton.com/Timeline-202...

"The use of an Oreshnik missile in Lviv makes strategic sense to Putin. Their use is the sign of a fearful, worried leader with challenges at home and abroad, and not one that is confident and anticipating victory. It is unlikely to be the last time he does so." mickryan.substack.com/p/the-russia...

Putin has a line to walk here. He wants to be seen as strong at home (noting he can manipulate the media to do that) while not upsetting his ‘relationship’ with Trump in the #Ukraine talks. It is a joy to see Putin’s true weakness laid bare here. www.kyivpost.com/post/67690

“Observers should nonetheless not assume that because the costs of a failed PRC military operation against Taiwan would be massive, they would be sufficient to deter Beijing. Deterrence rests on perceptions, rather than reality.” www.gmfus.org/news/if-chin...

“Maybe we should show them Canberra…nah.” This year’s annual Aussie lamb ad is out. 🇦🇺 www.youtube.com/watch?app=de...

“Trump enjoyed his “Mission Accomplished” moment on Saturday. But if there is one thing we have learned over the past quarter-century, it is much easier to topple tyrants than to build stable and secure societies afterward.” www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

“As a veteran of Iraq & Afghanistan, I have seen this slovenly strategic thinking about regime change and reconstruction before. It did not end well, and may result in a distracted America while China further builds its military, economic and diplomatic power.” www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

“The principles of Trump’s foreign policy remain even harder to discern after the Venezuelan intervention than they did before it. But all actions have consequences—even arbitrary and inscrutable ones.” www.theatlantic.com/internationa...

On the situation in #Venezuela - lots of booms, lots of videos, not much verified info. Remember, in any military operation, first reports are always wrong. Will see in an hour or so where we are, and whether there are any statements/releases from the Pentagon (or anyone else).

“Cognitive Warfare seeks to exploit facets of cognition to disrupt, undermine, influence, or modify human decision-making by altering human behaviour and cognition through any means & technological advances”. A Cognitive Warfare report from NATO’s chief scientist. www.sto.nato.int/wp-content/u...

Zelenskyy shakes up Ukraine’s national security leadership. Military Intelligence Head Budanov to be new presidential chief of staff. Mykhailo Fedorov, deputy prime minister and digital transformation minister, to be new defence minister. kyivindependent.com/breaking-ukr...

U.S. Finds Ukraine Didn’t Target Putin in Drone Strike ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Falling for Russian propaganda demands a spectacular degree of stupidity. "Putin is a coloniser in the real world and in the minds of people. He has successfully and thoroughly colonised Trump’s mind." @warinthefuture.bsky.social

“The collective west, including our Asian and Pacific democratic allies, has failed to imagine a free world that includes and encourages more nations.” Another fabulous article from @mollymckew.bsky.social www.greatpower.us/p/2025-the-a...

On 29 December, just as the summit between Zelenskyy and Trump was finishing at Mar-a-lago, the PLA Eastern Theatre Command announced that it had commenced exercise "Justice Mission 2025" in the Taiwan Strait. Read my assessment of the exercise here. mickryan.substack.com/p/justice-mi...

“The headline Trump shared said it plainly: “Putin ‘attack’ bluster shows Russia is the one standing in the way of peace.” I would not be holding my breath for more action. This is just part of the merry-go-round. www.kyivpost.com/post/67239

On 29 December, just as the summit between Zelenskyy and Trump was finishing at Mar-a-lago, the PLA Eastern Theatre Command announced that it had commenced exercise "Justice Mission 2025" in the Taiwan Strait. I have just published an assessment of the exercise. mickryan.substack.com/p/justice-mi...

“Don’t mistake progress in stopping a U.S. sellout of Ukraine with progress in ending the war. The conflict will end only when Putin is convinced that he can’t achieve his military objectives. Until that point…peace negotiations aren’t going anywhere.” wapo.st/4aw8ppT @maxboot.bsky.social

According the Trump, "we made a lot of progress on ending that war." My quick assessment of the just completed Mar-a-Lago summit between President's Zelenskyy and Trump. I also examine Putin’s strategic calculus in the wake of the latest peace summit. mickryan.substack.com/p/the-mar-a-...

⚡️Update: Zelensky, Trump conclude meeting in Florida aimed at discussing an end to Russia's war. "They're going to be helping. Russia is going to be helping," U.S. President Donald Trump said when asked if Moscow would have any responsibility for Ukraine's reconstruction.

The much-anticipated summit between the leaders of #Ukraine and America, held at President Trump’s Mar-a-Largo resort, has just concluded. A quick update on outcomes. 1/15 🧵🇺🇦

An initial analysis of the Trump-class battleships from ⁦‪@MarkCancian‬⁩ at ⁦‪@CSIS‬⁩. www.csis.org/analysis/gol...

“Russia remains fully committed to achieving peace in Ukraine.” U.S. Special Envoy Witkoff, 22 December 2025. Ukraine tonight sees Putin’s commitment to achieving peace.

I have written a lot about military innovation and adaptation in #Ukraine. Both Ukraine and Russia have demonstrated #adaptation and the ability to 'learn how to learn' better. This is NOT one of those situations. It is military incompetence and bad #leadership. www.kyivpost.com/post/66754

A good argument for careful implementation of AI in military institutions. However, I fear we may have already passed the point where this is possible.

I have just released my regular update on war and great power competition. This week: Jewish Australians massacred, Putin wants to keep fighting despite his failures on the ground, Japan's resilience, the NDAA and the Pacific, and my Big Five recommended reads. mickryan.substack.com/p/leadership...

My new article explores failure in war, and how military fiction can help build a better understanding of war, military failure and strategic tragedy. It also includes a preview of the sequel to my 2023 novel, White Sun War. mickryan.substack.com/p/failing-to...

"The key responsibility of governments in Australia now, beyond ensuring the safety of all citizens, is challenging the existing ideas or conceptzia about our domestic & national notions of resilience, cohesion, prosperity & security." My latest at Lowy. www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

The latest edition of Parameters has just been released. This is one of the best military journals out there, and a must read for military and NatSec professionals. press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters/

"Ukraine’s allies on Wednesday agreed to transfer more than $45 billion’ worth of critical weapons and military material during 2026, setting a new record for a single commitment of support by the international community for defense against the Russian invasion." www.kyivpost.com/post/66517

My new article is now available. It explores failure in war, and how military fiction can help build a better understanding of military failure and strategic tragedy. It also includes a preview of the sequel to my 2023 novel, White Sun War. mickryan.substack.com/p/failing-to...

“The Winner is Not the One Who Invented the Technology, But the One Who Scales and Applies It in the Long Run”. A good piece from ⁦‪@militarnyi‬⁩ about developments in UGVs and land operations. militarnyi.com/en/articles/...

In the midst of the darkest of times, a hero stands up for what is right. The brutal, deliberate attack against Jewish Australians celebrating Hanukkah at #Bondi Beach today is an abomination. For those murdered while celebrating the 1st day of the Festival of Lights, may their memory be a blessing.

I have just published my regular update on war and strategic competition. This week: Putin's Kupiansk lie, Ukrainian forces advance, the Chinese carrier strike group off Japan, as well as my Big Five recommended readings. mickryan.substack.com/p/my-zelensk...

"I believe that the Ukrainian people will answer this question. Whether in the form of elections or a referendum, the Ukrainian people must have a say." kyivindependent.com/elections-or...

My annual reading list, containing a range of resources (not just books) from the classics of antiquity through to speculation about future conflict, is now available at Futura Doctrina. Happy reading! mickryan.substack.com/p/the-futura...

“Under our laws, under international law — and under moral law — we have no right to give anything away…That is what we are fighting for.” @ZelenskyyUa wapo.st/4iFSKpY

“In dealing with Putin, in other words, Trump keeps thinking he’s entering a Manhattan boardroom, when in fact he’s walking into a Leningrad courtyard—and blinking first.” www.theatlantic.com/internationa...

The Trump administration's new National Security Strategy (NSS) is out. There is disappointment & despondency in Europe. But, in the Pacific, there is reason for cautious optimism and hope. Unless you are China of course. My latest assessment: mickryan.substack.com/p/shell-be-r...

⚡️At least 3 injured in Russian missile, drone strikes on Kyiv Oblast. Three people have been injured in a Russian missile and drone attack on Kyiv Oblast overnight on Dec. 6, local officials reported.

An investigation of Ukraine's seven key 2025 strategic endeavours and how successful #Ukraine has been in their execution. mickryan.substack.com/p/ukraines-2...

NEW: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged that Putin’s theory of victory and negotiating tactics assume that Russia can outlast the West and Ukraine in a war of attrition. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Dec. 3, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar120325 More🧵⬇(1/7)

Back in January, I explored the key strategic endeavours that Ukraine would be investing in throughout the course of 2025. In this piece, I examine these endeavours and assess how successful #Ukraine has been in their execution: mickryan.substack.com/p/ukraines-2...

“Russian President Vladimir Putin has underlined his true intentions by issuing a presidential decree calling for an escalation in efforts to eradicate all traces of Ukrainian identity from the approximately 20% of Ukraine currently under Kremlin control.” www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrain...

My latest interview with @Nataly_Lutsenko on the War & Politics 24 channel. We discuss the #Ukraine peace process, Russia’s continued ground and aerial attacks, and foreign support for Ukraine. youtu.be/GkVbEaZ0WGA?...

“The initial peace plan, with its heavy emphasis on Russian demands, is evidence of Mr. Putin’s skill in manipulation. He’ll need it—for on the current trajectory, Russian troops will continue to proceed at a glacial place.” My piece in @wsj.com www.wsj.com/opinion/vlad...

I have just published my weekly update on modern war and strategic competition. This week, a focus on Putin's presser, peace talks, the fall of Yermak in #Ukraine, China's military / diplomatic aggression in the Pacific, as well as my Big 5 recommended reads. mickryan.substack.com/p/peace-nego...

"President Putin of Russia on Thursday defended President Trump’s special envoy against accusations of pro-Kremlin bias, calling him “an intelligent man” who is properly representing the position of his country and leader." For sure, Vlad. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/27/w...

“While the Thanksgiving holiday in America offers a chance for all parties in the Ukraine peace process to consider the path ahead, there are many salutary lessons from the behaviour of the Trump administration & its representatives in the past couple of weeks.” www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

One of the clearest, logical thinkers and strategic communicators on why Russia must not win - and why Ukraine needs more support, not more pressure to sign a deal that favours Russia.