NEW: Russia has reportedly been forming a strategic reserve from new recruits since July 2025. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 21, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar092125 Other Key Takeaways ⬇️ (1/6)

NEW: Russia has reportedly been forming a strategic reserve from new recruits since July 2025. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 21, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar092125 Other Key Takeaways ⬇️ (1/6)

Putin may have allowed these Kremlin sources to share his logic with Bloomberg and likely seeks to leverage the article to exploit friction between European and US officials, to feed into the wider Russian narrative that a Russian victory is inevitable, and to create fear in Ukrainian society.⬇

NEW: Kremlin insider statements continue to indicate that 1) Putin remains committed to his strategy that Russian forces will be able to win a war of attrition against Ukraine & the West, and 2) that the West has thus far failed to convince Putin to reevaluate his strategy.🧵1/7 isw.pub/UkrWar092025

Putin may have allowed these Kremlin sources to share his logic with Bloomberg and likely seeks to leverage the article to exploit friction between European and US officials, to feed into the wider Russian narrative that a Russian victory is inevitable, and to create fear in Ukrainian society.⬇

NEW: Kremlin insider statements continue to indicate that 1) Putin remains committed to his strategy that Russian forces will be able to win a war of attrition against Ukraine & the West, and 2) that the West has thus far failed to convince Putin to reevaluate his strategy.🧵1/7 isw.pub/UkrWar092025

NEW: Russian MiG-31 interceptor jets violated Estonian airspace on September 19. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 19, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar091925 Other Key Takeaways: ⬇️ 🧵(1/7)

NEW: Iran is trying to prevent snapback sanctions by offering an interim deal that secures concessions upfront from the United States and the E3 but avoids any meaningful commitments on its nuclear program. 🧵(1/3) Iran Update, September 19, 2025: isw.pub/IranUpdate09... Other Key Takeaways ⬇️

NEW: Russian military-patriotic and civic engagement programs continue to facilitate the deportation of Ukrainian children and teenagers to Russia. 🧵(1/7) Read the full update: isw.pub/OccupationUp...

NEW: French President Emmanuel Macron stated on September 18 that UN snapback sanctions on Iran are a “done deal” and will be reimposed at the end of September. Macron told Israeli media that Iran has failed to make serious commitments. (1/8) Read the full report: isw.pub/IranUpdate09...

NEW: The Kremlin is attempting to manipulate the Trump administration into normalizing US-Russian bilateral relations without concluding the war in Ukraine – contrary to Trump’s desired timeline of working on bilateral relations after concluding a peace in Ukraine. 🧵(1/3) isw.pub/UkrWar091825

NEW: The Kremlin is attempting to manipulate the Trump administration into normalizing US-Russian bilateral relations without concluding the war in Ukraine – contrary to Trump’s desired timeline of working on bilateral relations after concluding a peace in Ukraine. 🧵(1/3) isw.pub/UkrWar091825

NEW: French President Emmanuel Macron stated on September 18 that UN snapback sanctions on Iran are a “done deal” and will be reimposed at the end of September. Macron told Israeli media that Iran has failed to make serious commitments. (1/8) Read the full report: isw.pub/IranUpdate09...

NEW: Iran views the Adversary Entente as critical to efforts to rebuild its military & prepare for conflict. Iranian Armed Forces General Staff-controlled outlet Defa Press published an article on how Iran will benefit from an upcoming BRICS naval exercise. (1/3) Read more: isw.pub/AdversaryEnt...

NEW: The E3 (United Kingdom, France, and Germany) stated on September 17 that Iran has not taken any concrete steps required to delay the snapback mechanism. (1/4) Read the full update: isw.pub/IranUpdate09...

NEW: Senior Russian officials continue to publicly signal the Kremlin’s unwillingness to engage in negotiations that result in anything less than full Ukrainian capitulation. isw.pub/UkrWar091725 Other Key Takeaways ⬇🧵(1/6)

NEW: Senior Russian officials continue to publicly signal the Kremlin’s unwillingness to engage in negotiations that result in anything less than full Ukrainian capitulation. isw.pub/UkrWar091725 Other Key Takeaways ⬇🧵(1/6)

NEW: The E3 (United Kingdom, France, and Germany) stated on September 17 that Iran has not taken any concrete steps required to delay the snapback mechanism. (1/4) Read the full update: isw.pub/IranUpdate09...

NEW | Larger oil stock levels at independent Chinese refineries and US sanctions on Chinese refineries using Iranian oil are forcing Iran to offer wider discounts on its oil exports to China. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin oversaw the final day of the Russian-Belarusian Zapad-2025 joint military exercises on September 16. 🧵(1/5) Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 16, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar091625 Other Key Takeaways ⬇️

NEW | Comments from sources involved in ongoing Syria-Israel security negotiations indicate that a security agreement between the two countries is currently very unlikely, despite US pressure. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW: The Israel Defense Forces Air Force struck Houthi shipping infrastructure at Hudaydah Port on September 16, which the Houthis had repaired since the IDF’s last strikes on the port in July 2025. A Yemen analyst reported that Israel struck three recently repaired piers at the port. 🧵(1/7)

NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin oversaw the final day of the Russian-Belarusian Zapad-2025 joint military exercises on September 16. 🧵(1/5) Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 16, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar091625 Other Key Takeaways ⬇️

NEW: Explore recent changes in Ukraine's control of terrain using our August 2025 time-lapse 🗺️ understandingwar.org...

NEW: Ukrainian experts confirmed that Russia has forcibly removed and deported upwards of 11,000 Ukrainian children to re-education camps so far in 2025, although Russian officials’ own statements suggest the numbers could be even higher. 🧵(1/5) Read more: isw.pub/OccupationUp...

NEW: Taiwanese authorities have launched investigations into Taiwanese celebrities suspected of cooperating with the PRC to disseminate propaganda and disinformation. (🧵1/2) Read more in the September 15, 2025, China Taiwan Update: isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanU...

NEW: A recent op-ed from IRGC-affiliated media offers insight into how some elements of the Iranian regime may be viewing the relationship between the US, Israel, and the Gulf in the wake of Israel’s September 9 strikes in Doha. (1/5) 🧵 Iran Update, September 15, 2025: isw.pub/IranUpdate09...

NEW: The Kremlin is escalating its rhetoric, threatening NATO states in parallel with the kinetic escalation of Russia’s recent drone incursion into Poland. (1/) Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 15, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar091525 Other Key Takeaways ⬇️ 🧵 (1/x)

NEW: The Kremlin is escalating its rhetoric, threatening NATO states in parallel with the kinetic escalation of Russia’s recent drone incursion into Poland. (1/) Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 15, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar091525 Other Key Takeaways ⬇️ 🧵 (1/x)

NEW: A recent op-ed from IRGC-affiliated media offers insight into how some elements of the Iranian regime may be viewing the relationship between the US, Israel, and the Gulf in the wake of Israel’s September 9 strikes in Doha. (1/5) 🧵 Iran Update, September 15, 2025: isw.pub/IranUpdate09...

NEW: Taiwanese authorities have launched investigations into Taiwanese celebrities suspected of cooperating with the PRC to disseminate propaganda and disinformation. (🧵1/2) Read more in the September 15, 2025, China Taiwan Update: isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanU...

[email protected]: Russia has significantly escalated strikes on Ukraine since President Trump took office, data shows, defying his call for peace by increasing the range of buildings hit, including civilian ones www.wsj.com/world/these-...

NEW: A Russian drone entered Romanian airspace on the night of September 13, days after a Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace on the night of September 9 to 10. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 14, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar091425 Other Key Takeaways ⬇️ [🧵] (1/7)

NEW: A Russian drone entered Romanian airspace on the night of September 13, days after a Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace on the night of September 9 to 10. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 14, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar091425 Other Key Takeaways ⬇️ [🧵] (1/7)

NEW: Russian forces recently attempted to advance behind Ukrainian positions in Kupyansk via an underground gas pipeline — the third time Russian forces have used this tactic so far in the war. 🧵(1/4) Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar091325 Other Key Takeaways ⬇️

NEW: Russian and Belarusian forces began the joint Zapad-2025 military exercises on September 12 for the first time since Russia's 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar091225 Other Key Takeaways:

NEW: Russian and Belarusian forces began the joint Zapad-2025 military exercises on September 12 for the first time since Russia's 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar091225 Other Key Takeaways:

NEW: Iranian Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Secretary Ali Larijani and former First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber are the regime stalwarts most in contact with Khamenei and are positioning themselves for more influence in the regime. 🧵(1/5) Read more: isw.pub/IranUpdate09...

NEW: Iranian media outlet Nour News highlighted the Defense Council as an important body in shaping Iran’s strategy after the Israel-Iran War. (1/4) Read the full report: isw.pub/IranUpdate09...

New: Polish officials provided additional clarification on the impacts of the September 9-10 Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace. (1/6) Read the full update: isw.pub/UkrWar091125

New: Polish officials provided additional clarification on the impacts of the September 9-10 Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace. (1/6) Read the full update: isw.pub/UkrWar091125

NEW: Iranian media outlet Nour News highlighted the Defense Council as an important body in shaping Iran’s strategy after the Israel-Iran War. (1/4) Read the full report: isw.pub/IranUpdate09...

NEW | Iranian media outlet Nour News highlighted the Defense Council as an important body in shaping Iran’s strategy after the Israel-Iran War. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW: The Russian “Country for Children” charitable organization continues to facilitate the transfer of Ukrainian children to Russia through its “Day After Tomorrow” youth program. Read more: isw.pub/OccupationUp... (1/5)

NEW: Russian drones violated Polish airspace on the night of September 9 to 10 in what NATO and European officials have suggested was an intentional Russian incursion. Read the full update: isw.pub/UkrWar091025

NEW: Russian drones violated Polish airspace on the night of September 9 to 10 in what NATO and European officials have suggested was an intentional Russian incursion. Read the full update: isw.pub/UkrWar091025

NEW: The WSJ reported on Sept 10 that the Iran-IAEA agreement is unlikely to persuade the E3 to stop pursuing the reimposition of UNSC sanctions on Iran b/c the agreement does not include a timeline for inspections or a deadline for Iran to clarify the status of its enriched uranium stockpile. (1/3)

NEW | The Wall Street Journal reported on September 10 that the Iran-IAEA agreement is unlikely to persuade the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) to stop pursuing the reimposition of UNSC sanctions on Iran. Read more at www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW: Russia is relying on its allies, particularly the PRC, for energy revenues and economic support ahead of possible Western sanctions impacting Russian energy exports. 🧵 (1/3) Read more in the September 10, 2025 update from ISW’s Adversary Entente Task Force:

NEW: The Israeli Air Force conducted several airstrikes targeting senior Hamas leaders in Doha, Qatar, today. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that Israel’s strikes in Qatar do “not advance Israel’s or America’s goals,” but added that eliminating Hamas is “a worthy goal.” (1/3)