NEW | Iran continues to use threats and force to compel commercial vessels to transit through its illegal traffic separation scheme in the Strait of Hormuz. Read today's update from CTP and @thestudyofwar.bsky.social: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira... (1/8)

NEW | Iran continues to insist on imposing an illegal toll scheme in the Strait of Hormuz despite Omani opposition to mandatory fees. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW | The United States imposed additional sanctions on networks linked to the RSF and SAF for their roles in Sudan’s civil war, although the sanctions are unlikely to change the RSF’s and SAF’s maximalist stances. 🧵⬇️ www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/drc...

NEW I Iranian forces may have launched an effort against Kurdish militancy around the Iran-Iraq border. The exact military objectives are unclear at this time. (1/6) Read the full update here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW | Russia’s spring-summer 2026 offensive has failed to achieve operationally significant gains thus far, and Russian forces’ rate of advance in June 2026 is a fraction of the rate of advance that Russian forces achieved in June 2025. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

NEW | Iran is pushing the United States to unfreeze a significant amount of Iranian financial assets and acknowledge Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz as part of the United States-Iran MoU. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

MORE | Iran's recent strikes against Bahrain and Kuwait may have sought, at least in part, to signal to the Gulf states that Iran may respond with force to Gulf opposition to Iranian control over the strait.

NEW | The Kremlin continues to set unrealistic deadlines for the Russian military to complete the seizure of Donetsk Oblast that do not align with battlefield realities. Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

NEW | Iranian officials are simultaneously employing diplomatic outreach and military coercion to pressure regional states to support a new "regional security mechanism," likely to advance Iran's long-standing objective of expelling the United States from the Middle East.

MORE | 60 Assembly members issued a 10-point statement on June 28 warning negotiators not to violate Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s red lines. The Assembly of Experts statement also reiterated that Mojtaba barred negotiators from discussing Iran’s nuclear program with the United States.

NEW | Russian President Vladimir Putin is carefully constructing a reality that seeks to portray a Russian victory in Ukraine as inevitable while downplaying the growing domestic economic costs of the war. Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

NEW | Iran and the United States will reportedly hold talks in Doha, Qatar, on June 30 to discuss the implementation of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) despite the recent exchange of fire between the United States and Iran.

NEW | IS Sahel Province & al Qaeda’s Sahelian affiliate JNIM may be partially trying to “outbid” each other with recent major attacks in the Sahel. Heightened competition could help fuel more high-visibility attacks and escalate the scale and scope of fighting between the two.🧵

Russian President Vladimir Putin used his speech to the ruling United Russia Party Congress on June 28 to project Russia's strength, reinforce his resolve to achieve Russia’s objectives militarily, and reject diplomatic solutions to end his war in Ukraine.

An Iranian drone struck the Panama-flagged M/T Kiku on June 27. US military aircraft targeted Iranian military surveillance infrastructure, communications systems, air defense sites, drone storage facilities, and mine-laying capabilities in response.

NEW I Iran has continued to use force to try to deter the United States from undermining Iranian efforts to control the Strait of Hormuz. (1/8) Read the full update here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW | Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on June 25 that he had authorized a 40-day intermediate- and long-range strike campaign to influence Russia to end the war in Ukraine. Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

NEW | Iran is using force in an attempt to maintain its control over the Strait of Hormuz in the immediate future. Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW | IS Sahel & al Qaeda’s Sahelian affiliate JNIM separately launched two of their most significant attacks ever in Niger last week. The security situation in western Niger & around the capital has deteriorated rapidly in recent years since Western partner forces withdrew. 🧵

MORE | The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy attacked a vessel approximately eight nautical miles southeast of Dahit, Oman, on June 25. Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW | Iran is attacking and threatening vessels in the Strait of Hormuz to advance its objective of establishing control over the waterway. Read more from CTP and @thestudyofwar.bsky.social www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

MORE | Iran is likely attempting to use talks with Omani and Saudi officials to segue discussions over the immediate management of the Strait of Hormuz and resumption of traffic into broader discussions about a new regional architecture in the Gulf region.

CORRECTION: Iran is likely using discussions called for by the US-Iran memorandum of understanding to reach arrangements with the Gulf states that would allow for sustained Iranian influence around the strait during the post-war period. Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira... (1/7)

MORE | Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf met with Omani officials in Muscat on June 23 to discuss joint Iranian-Omani management of the strait.

NEW | Iran is taking steps to establish a joint mechanism with Oman to try to exercise long-term authority over the Strait of Hormuz. Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira... (1/10)

NEW | Iran and Oman pledged this morning to continue talks on their joint administration of the Strait of Hormuz, including potential vessel services and related costs. This suggests that the two parties are discussing charging fees for passage. (1/7)

NEW | Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi (Irro) conducted the first official state visit to Israel by a Somaliland president from June 14 to 17, meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to discuss furthering cooperation across all domains and inaugurating Somaliland’s embassy.

NEW | Ukrainian forces conducted another strike near Moscow City on the night of June 21 to 22 —the third strike against Russia’s capital area in the past week. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

NEW | Both Iran and Hezbollah could materially benefit from a constrained Israeli ability to confront Hezbollah. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

Security services and militias linked to the regime of Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) President Félix Tshisekedi forcibly cracked down on opposition protests against the government’s push to change the Congolese constitution in mid-June. ⬇️🧵

Ukrainian forces are conducting a strike campaign to deny Russia's ability to sustain logistics and transport fuel across the Kerch Strait.

Iran is attempting to use the sequencing of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding’s (MoU) clauses to make the United States meet Iranian demands regarding Lebanon and economic relief before Iran agrees to discuss nuclear issues.

NEW | The Iranian regime has insisted that it will not discuss Iran’s nuclear program during the US-Iran negotiations in Switzerland today, which is consistent with Iranian efforts to delay nuclear discussions until the United States meets Iranian demands.

NEW | An Iranian negotiating delegation arrived in Switzerland on June 20 to discuss the implementation of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) with US negotiators. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW | Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov rejected the peace conditions proposed by Ukraine and its European partners on June 7, demonstrating the Kremlin’s continued disinterest in peace proposals that do not accept Russian demands for Ukraine's capitulation.

NEW | Iran is attempting to condition US-Iran nuclear negotiations on the United States compelling Israel to halt operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW | US officials announced that Israel and Hezbollah will implement a ceasefire at 16:00 local time on June 19. Iran has made the start of US-Iran nuclear negotiations contingent upon Israel ceasing operations against Hezbollah and withdrawing from Lebanese territory.

The RSF is setting conditions for an offensive on the SAF–controlled city of el Obeid in North Kordofan, which is a major operational objective for both sides, as it is key to control of central Sudan and breaking the current stalemate.

NEW I IRGC-affiliated media has made Iranian implementation of the US-Iran agreement, particularly provisions concerning the Strait of Hormuz, contingent on an end to Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. (1/7) Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

MORE | Iran is claiming that the final MoU text satisfies some of its key war aims related to Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz. The final MoU is basically unchanged from the version provided to Bloomberg on June 16, except for text changes in clauses one and five that Iran reportedly requested.

NEW | The United States and Iran signed the memorandum of understanding (MoU) on June 17. Iran is claiming that the final MoU text satisfies some of its key war aims related to Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW | The Group of Seven (G7) reaffirmed its unified support for Ukraine and its interest in re-engaging in peace talks to end the war in Ukraine. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

MORE | The MoU states that Iran could receive further economic relief by fulfilling its commitments in the MoU and reaching a final agreement that addresses key nuclear issues. Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

CTP-ISW has updated the IDF and Hezbollah Attacks in Lebanon map that it published in its Iran Update last night. (1/2)

NEW | Multiple sources published what appears to be the text of the US-Iran agreement. Neither the United States nor Iran has officially published the text of the agreement at this time. Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW | Russian authorities and energy companies are increasingly restricting the sale of gasoline and diesel in Russia as Ukraine's long-range strikes against Russian oil infrastructure cause shortages. Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

MORE | CTP-ISW previously assessed that Iran likely views control over the strait as essential to restoring deterrence against the United States and Israel following the degradation of its other deterrent capabilities. Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW | Iran’s interpretation of the agreement’s provisions about the Strait of Hormuz in the recent US-Iran agreement would constitute a significant strategic victory for Iran if its interpretation became the recognized reality. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW | Russian forces conducted another devastating large-scale drone and missile strike series against Ukraine on the night of June 14 to 15, heavily targeting Kyiv, Dnipro, and Kharkiv cities. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

NEW | US and Iranian sources appear to have diverging interpretations of some aspects of the US-Iran agreement, which will likely complicate the implementation of the agreement and the next phase of negotiations. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...