NEW I Senior officials in Tehran have signaled that they seek to use the Strait of Hormuz and energy flows around it as points of leverage that Iran can use after the war to extract concessions and secure strategic aims. 1/12 Read more here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW I There is a clear sentiment across senior officials in Tehran that the Strait of Hormuz and energy flows around it are key points of leverage that Iran can use after the war to extract concessions and secure strategic aims. (1/7)

MORE | Iran launched only three missile barrages at Israel since ISW-CTP’s last data cutoff at 2:00 PM ET on March 30, marking its lowest barrage rate of the war to date.

NEW | The combined force campaign targeting Iranian commanders is likely impeding their ability to conduct sizable and coordinated attacks. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW | Russian advances have slowed as Ukrainian forces continue to contest the initiative in different frontline sectors for a protracted period of time. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

NEW: Iran has continued attacks on shipping in the Persian Gulf, but it is facing some challenges coordinating large-scale missile attacks on Israel. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

MORE | Anti-regime media and a Kurdistan Democratic Party-affiliated journalist reported that Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) fighters have deployed to western Iran. The reported PMF deployment is notable given recent Iranian regime efforts to recruit new security force members.

NEW | US President Donald Trump told the Financial Times on March 30 that the combined force has struck 13,000 targets since the start of the war on February 28. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) stated on March 30 that it struck 170 targets over the past day. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW | Ukraine’s operational and strategic ability to inflict mounting costs on Russia is generating increasing anxiety in the Russian ultranationalist information space. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

NEW: The IDF has launched at least two waves of airstrikes against Iranian defense industrial sites since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff at 2:00 PM ET on March 29. The IDF has reportedly struck around 40 defense industrial sites in the past two days. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW I The Washington Post reported on March 29 that the combined force has struck four key Iranian missile production facilities and 29 missile launch bases since the start of the war. CTP-ISW has similarly recorded strikes on over 20 missile bases during the war. 1/7

NEW: Iran has conducted five waves of ballistic missile attacks targeting Israel since CTP-ISW’s last data cutoff. Iran launched one missile in three of the waves, two missiles in one wave, and a “small” number of missiles in another wave. (1/12)

The Houthis conducted a ballistic missile attack and a drone and cruise missile attack targeting southern Israel on March 27 and 28. Read more here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

Russian forces struck a maternity hospital in Odesa City overnight on March 27 to 28. Read more from @criticalthreats.bsky.social and @thestudyofwar.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

NEW | The Houthis conducted a ballistic missile attack targeting southern Israel on March 27, marking the group’s first involvement in the war. Israeli air defense systems intercepted a Houthi ballistic missile, and the Houthi attack did not cause any injuries.

NEW | Iran may be attempting to maximize the effects of its limited capacity to launch large missile salvos at Israel. Read today's update from CTP and @thestudyofwar.bsky.social: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira... (1/13)

MORE | Iranian state media reported that Iran officially sent its response rejecting the 15-point US proposal and is awaiting the US response. The United States presented the proposal to Iran via Pakistan on March 24.

NEW | The US-Israeli combined force conducted strikes around Mashhad, marking the northeastern-most strikes so far. The combined force has slowly swept across Iran west to east and is now getting to some of the furthest targets of the campaign.

NEW: The IDF announced on March 26 that it killed IRGC Navy Commander Alireza Tangsiri in Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan Province. Tangsiri oversaw Iranian efforts to disrupt maritime traffic and threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.

MORE | The Wall Street Journal confirmed on March 24 that Israeli strikes on a major Caspian Sea port in northern Iran last week targeted Russian support for Iran in the ongoing war, according to unspecified people familiar with the matter. Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW I The United States presented a 15-point proposal to Iran via Pakistan on March 24. Read the full update here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW: The United States has reportedly sent Iran a 15-point plan to conclude the war, according to unspecified officials speaking to the New York Times. The officials said that the plan addresses shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear programs. (1/8)

MORE | Satellite imagery from March 22 shows that the combined force has inflicted substantial damage to Iranian naval and air infrastructure in the Nazeat Islands near the Strait of Hormuz as part of its effort to degrade Iran’s ability to threaten international shipping.

NEW | Iran is reportedly requiring some vessels to pay a fee to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Read the full report: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW | Russian forces launched nearly 1,000 drones and missiles against Ukraine in a prolonged strike series from the evening of March 23 to the evening of March 24 – the largest Russian strike series against Ukraine of the war thus far. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

NEW: The IDF has struck over 3,000 targets, including military headquarters and weapons warehouses, across Iran since the start of the war. Israel struck over 50 targets, including sites used to launch and store ballistic missiles, in northern and central Iran overnight on March 23 and 24. (1/6)

MORE | Hezbollah Political Council member Wafiq Safa said on March 23 that Hezbollah is preparing itself for a long war with Israel and noted that Israel should expect “surprises in the near future,” especially regarding one-way attack drones. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW | US President Trump extended his deadline for Iran to reach a deal with the United States to March 27. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that Russian forces intensified ground attacks across the theater in the last week, which is consistent with ISW's assessment that Russian forces have launched their Spring-Summer 2026 offensive. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

NEW: The US-Israeli combined force continued to strike naval, military, defense industrial, and internal security sites across Iran on March 22 and 23. CTP-ISW has observed strikes in 14 provinces since 3:00 PM ET on March 22. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW | President Trump threatened to “obliterate” Iranian power plants if Iran refuses to “fully open” the Strait of Hormuz by March 23. Iran has threatened to expand its attacks targeting critical regional infrastructure if the United States does so. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW | A senior Ukrainian military official forecasted that Russia will begin using mobilized personnel on the battlefield in Ukraine on April 1. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

NEW: Two Iranian ballistic missiles struck Dimona and Arad in the Negev on March 21 and 22, respectively. Almost 200 people were injured in the two attacks. Read CTP-ISW's latest analysis: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW | Iran fired missiles at the US-UK base at Diego Garcia, marking the furthest ever attempted Iranian missile strike. The attack demonstrated that Iranian missiles can reach beyond the 2,000-kilometer limit that the regime has long claimed to have self-imposed.

NEW: Circumstantial evidence suggests that Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is still badly injured or otherwise incapacitated. Mojtaba has yet to appear in public or in any new images or videos since becoming supreme leader on March 8. 1/5 Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW: The US-Israeli combined force continues to strike military and internal security sites across Iran. The IDF has struck over 130 infrastructure sites, including ballistic missile launchers, drones, and air defenses, in western and central Iran over the past 24 hours.

NEW: Israeli strikes on Iranian internal security forces, including decapitation strikes, have likely caused shock and confusion within the Iranian internal security apparatus and disrupted internal security operations to some degree. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW | Ukraine has been imposing increasing challenges on Russia at the tactical, operational, and strategic levels since the beginning of 2026. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

NEW: The US-Israeli combined force continued to strike naval, military, and internal security sites across Iran on March 18 and 19. The IDF reported that it struck targets in northern Iran for the first time in the war.

MORE | The Iranian regime is continuing mass arrests and information control measures as part of its securitization efforts. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW | The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) struck Iran’s most important energy infrastructure, including facilities linked to the South Pars natural gas field and the Asaluyeh processing hub in Bushehr Province on March 18. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

Ukraine has sent 201 military experts to assist Middle Eastern countries in defending against Iranian Shahed drone strikes and that the Ukrainian defense industrial base (DIB) is ready to support Middle Eastern air defense efforts. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

NEW | US aircraft struck an Iranian anti-ship cruise missile facility north of the Strait of Hormuz as part of efforts to prevent Iran from threatening maritime shipping. Read CTP-ISW's most recent analysis: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

MORE | Ali Larijani's death likely weakens a key faction in the intra-regime competition with the Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei-IRGC nexus but will not end the ongoing competition within the regime over its future trajectory. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW | The United States and Israel are currently attempting to use force to prevent Iran from disrupting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW | Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov continues to aggrandize tactical details and exaggerate Russian battlefield gains to create the false impression that the front lines across Ukraine are on the verge of collapse. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

NEW: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced on March 17 that it killed Supreme National Security Council Secretary and key regime insider Ali Larijani in a safehouse in Tehran. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

Continued Ukrainian advances in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast are likely constraining Russian offensive operations in the Oleksandrivka direction and may soon threaten Russian offensive operations in the Hulyaipole direction. Read more here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

NEW | Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s reported inner circle is dominated by long-standing hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commanders. Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW: The combined force continued to strike military and internal security sites across Iran on March 15 and 16. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...