NEW | Kremlin officials recently have been repeating the same messages about Russia's commitment to its original war aims in Ukraine to various media sources that reach international and domestic audiences. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

NEW | Iran may be floating the possibility of talks about Iran’s ballistic missile program in an effort to delay possible US military action and extract concessions from the United States in nuclear negotiations. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

The Iranian regime’s exacerbation of its population’s economic and sociocultural grievances increases the likelihood that protests will break out again. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW | Any US-Iran deal that does not limit Iran's ability to develop its ballistic missile program and support the Axis of Resistance would harm US interests in the Middle East. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov blamed the US on February 10 for the lack of progress in ending Russia’s war against Ukraine and reinvoked the Spring 2022 Istanbul talks to justify Russia’s rejection of Ukraine receiving meaningful security guarantees. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

MORE | The Iranian regime is cracking down on Iranian reformists, which may be part of the regime's efforts to control the narrative about the recent protests. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW | US-Iran Negotiations: Some Iranian regime elements are signaling that Iran may offer relatively insignificant, nuclear-only concessions, but only if the United States offers complete sanctions relief. Read today's update: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira... (1/5)

Ethiopian federal government and Tigrayan forces clashed in disputed territories in Tigray region, the first large-scale hostilities between the two parties since the end of the Tigray war in 2022. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/bok...

NEW | Russian forces are continuing their cognitive warfare campaign that uses small-scale cross-border attacks in previously dormant frontline areas in northern Ukraine to try to convince the West that the frontlines in Ukraine are collapsing. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

NEW | US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet in Washington, DC, on February 11 to discuss Iran. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

Russia launched another massive strike against Ukrainian energy infrastructure overnight on February 6 to 7 and specifically targeted substations that support Ukrainian nuclear power plants (NPPs). Read more here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

The United States and Iran will hold a new round of talks sometime early the week of February 8. Neither the United States nor Iran has changed their negotiating position, which makes a diplomatic breakthrough unlikely. Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW I Iran and the United States held talks in Muscat, Oman, on February 6 to establish a framework for future negotiations. (1/4) Read CTP-ISW's analysis about the US-Iran talks here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW | There are inconsistent reports about whether US-Iran talks in Oman on February 6 will be limited to the nuclear program or also include discussions on Iran’s ballistic missile program and regional proxy and partner network. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

MORE | A UK-based Middle East-focused outlet reported on February 3 that some Iranian regime policymakers believe that the only credible deterrent against US military action is the threat of a prolonged, costly war. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW | US, Ukrainian, and Russian delegations continued trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (UAE) on February 4. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

NEW | Iran and the United States are expected to hold talks in Oman on February 6, despite the brief cancellation of the meeting on February 4. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

MORE | The Iranian regime appears to be altering its demands on the location and structure of its upcoming negotiations with US officials, which may be an attempt to further restrict negotiations to solely focus on its nuclear program. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW | Iran conducted two probing operations against the US Navy in the Persian Gulf likely designed to test US Navy defensive reactions and demonstrate Iran’s ability to threaten US forces and assets. Read more from CTP and @thestudyofwar.bsky.social: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira... (1/7)

The Syrian government coordinated with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to deploy internal security forces to SDF territory in the first successful collaboration between the two parties and a major step toward the SDF’s integration into the Syrian state. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

Russian Security Council Chairperson Medvedev used a three-way interview with Western and Russian newswires and an ultranationalist milblogger to reaffirm that Russia’s demands for Ukraine "remain unchanged" Read more here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

NEW: The Iranian regime is conducting a concerted campaign that involves diplomatic, informational, and military lines of effort to try to prevent US military action against Iran.

NEW | Russian drones struck a maternity hospital and a bus carrying miners on February 1, causing significant civilian casualties. Read more here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

Iranian regime officials have continued to observe and respond to ongoing discussions in Western media about US concerns about a protracted conflict in the Middle East, likely as part of its effort to try to deter the United States from attacking Iran. More: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW | Iranian Naval Activity: Iran may be attempting to deter a possible US strike by moving forces and conducting a live-fire naval exercise in the Strait of Hormuz. Read today's update from CTP and @thestudyofwar.bsky.social: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira... (1/9)

The Kremlin disagreed with the US position that territorial control of Donetsk Oblast remains the only unresolved issue at the US-Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

NEW | Iran has shown little willingness to concede to US demands on the missile program, regional proxy network, and nuclear capabilities. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

The protests in Iran this month were the most recent in a series of popular uprisings that reveal a fundamental reality inside the country: The Islamic Republic in its current form is unsustainable. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the...

NEW | Russian forces recently advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Read more here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

Iran is likely trying to deter US military action against Iran by deploying forces and conducting naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz. (1/8)

The status of the reported January 27 Syrian government–Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) agreement remains unclear, but a momentary halt in fighting in northeastern Syria on January 28 suggests that diplomatic efforts to end the conflict have progressed. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW: US President Donald Trump condemned on January 27 the Shia Coordination Framework’s nomination of State of Law Coalition head and former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki as prime minister designate.

The People's Republic of China (PRC) continues to provide critical support to Russia's weapons production, including Oreshnik missiles and Shahed long-range drones. Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

MORE | CTP-ISW continues to assess that the SDF’s leadership may fracture over a decision to agree to Shara’s terms for the SDF to integrate into the Syrian state, which would risk instigating serious conflict between government forces and Kurdish fighters. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

The Iranian regime’s ongoing crackdown is exacerbating the economic collapse that spurred the Winter 2026 protests. The crackdown will therefore fail to address the underlying causes of the protests and could create more grievances that drive future protests. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

Members of Iran’s Axis of Resistance have threatened to retaliate if the United States attacks Iran, including Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iranian-backed Iraqi militias. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW I The Iraqi Shia Coordination Framework selected State of Law Coalition head and former Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki as prime minister designate on January 24, even though at least four framework members opposed Maliki’s nomination. (1/7) Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

Kremlin officials continue to reiterate Russia's commitment to its original war aims and reject Western security guarantees for Ukraine, Read more from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

NEW: Some Iranian officials have continued to leak damning information about the regime's brutal crackdown to Western media, which indicates that some regime personnel may oppose the regime's crackdown.

NEW I The Syrian government and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) agreed to extend their ceasefire in northeastern Syria for 15 days on January 24. (1/8)

NEW I The Syrian government and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) may agree to extend the US-mediated ceasefire, according to Kurdish sources and mediators. (1/8)

Ukrainian and US officials continued meetings in Switzerland on January 22. Putin is trying to use Trump's Board of Peace to curry favor with Trump and negotiate the release of frozen Russian assets to fuel the Russian economy. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

The US transfer of ISIS detainees from Syria to Iraq can mitigate some of the grave risks that an uncoordinated handover of detention facilities presents--but a successful transfer will take longer than the 72 hours remaining in the ceasefire. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

CTP-ISW assesses that in a most likely scenario, the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) will agree to a permanent deal to end the fighting in northeastern Syria, but that some hardline SDF fighters will continue to fight and imperil the permanent deal. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW | US officials will meet with Ukrainian officials on January 21 and 22 and with Russian President Vladimir Putin on January 22 to continue peace negotiations. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

NEW | The Iranian regime has expanded its crackdown beyond protesters by targeting merchants and businesses that supported the protests. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW | Syrian President Ahmed al Shara likely decided to temporarily halt the Syrian government offensive on SDF-held territory in northeastern Syria after a phone call with US President Donald Trump on January 19.

CTP-ISW assesses that Syrian President Ahmed al Shara likely chose to stop the Syrian government offensive against the Kurdish SDF after a phone call with US President Donald Trump on January 19. The phone call discussed “protecting the Kurdish people.” www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

The Syrian government and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) reached a new “mutual understanding” to resolve issues related to the integration of the SDF into the Syrian government. 🧵 www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

MORE | The Syrian government’s offensive in northeastern Syria is driving a violent, chaotic situation on the ground that has enabled ISIS fighters to escape prison facilities. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...