NEW | Russia is using unannounced strategic nuclear exercises to posture strength against Ukraine's allies and distract from mounting battlefield weaknesses. 1/7 Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

NEW | The United States continues to pressure Iran economically through its naval blockade and sanctions, which impose costs on Iran’s economy. Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

MORE | The newly established Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) stated on X on May 18 that it serves as the “legal institution and representative authority” of the Iranian regime for managing transit through the strait. Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

Russian forces conducted a large-scale strike against Ukraine with 546 drones and missiles, including 14 ballistic missiles, on the night of May 17 to 18.

Iran’s latest counterproposal does not appear to meet US demands. A senior US official and source briefed on the matter told Axios on May 18 that Iran’s proposal does not contain a commitment “about suspending uranium enrichment or handing over its existing stockpile of highly enriched uranium."

MORE | The war would only end if negotiations were successful, and there would be no guarantees that the United States or Israel would not attack Iran in the future. 1/5 Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW | The United States and Iran continue to pursue fundamentally incompatible negotiating positions. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

The Iranian regime is introducing a formalized toll system under the guise of maritime insurance policies and continuing to deploy incentives and threats to vessels in the Persian Gulf. Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira... (1/7)

NEW | Russian President Vladimir Putin is positively portraying data about Russia's economic performance that actually shows a strained economy. understandingwar.org/analysis/rus...

NEW | The People’s Republic of China (PRC) does not appear to have made a clear commitment to support US efforts to secure freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW: Trump left the US-PRC summit without a clear commitment from CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping on the PRC’s approach to the Strait of Hormuz. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

MORE | The US officials did not specify what military equipment PRC companies were discussing with Iranian officials, but earlier reports prior to the current war suggested that Iran sought PRC shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles and anti-ship missiles.

NEW | Russian forces have conducted two days of nearly continuous strikes against Ukraine with over 1,600 total long-range drones and missiles that heavily targeted Kyiv City and resulted in high civilian casualties. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

NEW | Iran may be prioritizing upholding the “legitimacy” of its claims to the Strait of Hormuz over toll collection at this time, including by providing toll exemptions for so-called "friendly" countries. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

The Kremlin is doubling down on its demand that Ukraine withdraw from all of Donbas as a precondition for the resumption of negotiations.

Iran’s efforts to reconstitute its military capabilities during the ceasefire period are consistent with the behavior of any military organization when given time and space to reconstitute itself after combat. Read more here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW: There is an emergent consensus in Tehran that the Strait of Hormuz is an increasingly potent lever of power and must be central to Iranian strategy moving forward. Iranian actions and rhetoric demonstrate the disruptive ways that Iran hopes to use this lever in the future.

MORE | Iran is simultaneously attempting to normalize and formalize its control of the strait through rhetoric and operational measures. Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW I Iran’s pursuit of international recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz reinforces CTP-ISW's assessment that Iran views control of the strait as its most important tool of deterrence against future US or allied military action. (1/8)

MORE | Iran will not enter negotiations with the United States until the United States accepts Iran’s terms, according to a statement made on May 11 by Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Baghiyatollah Sociocultural Headquarters Commander Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari

NEW | NEW | Russian and Ukrainian forces continued limited offensive operations throughout the theater on the final day of the May 9 to 11 ceasefire. Read More: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

NEW | Iranian leaders are trying to dictate the terms for ending the war, which illustrates that the Iranian regime perceives that it has the upper hand in the conflict at this time. Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

Russian and Ukrainian forces continued limited offensive operations across the theater throughout the second day of the May 9–11 ceasefire.

US President Donald Trump stated on May 10 that Iran's latest counterproposal is “totally unacceptable.” Read more here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW: Iran has responded to the latest US proposal through Pakistani mediators, but it is unclear what the Iranian counterproposal includes at this time.

NEW I Russia is supporting Iranian efforts to rebuild Iran’s military capabilities during the ceasefire period. Russia is reportedly sending drone components to Iran via the Caspian Sea to help Iran rebuild its offensive capabilities following the war, according to US officials. (1/5)

NEW | Ukrainian forces are reconnoitering and interdicting Russian GLOCs in and near occupied Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast (~105 kilometers from the frontline), demonstrating increased capabilities as part of Ukraine’s intensifying mid-range strike campaign. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

NEW | Iran likely views control over the strait as essential to restoring deterrence against the United States and Israel following the degradation of its other forms of deterrence. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW: The US Navy is continuing its efforts to maintain an effective blockade of Iranian ports. US Navy aircraft fired on and stopped two empty Iranian-flagged tankers attempting to breach the blockade and sail to an Iranian port on May 8.

NEW | The TPLF reinstated the pre-Tigray war regional government, effectively voiding the Pretoria peace agreement that ended the Tigray war and risking a potential military confrontation with the federal government. 1/6

NEW | The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced the terms for Russia's unilaterally-declared May 9 Victory Day ceasefire. Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

NEW | US Central Command announced on 5/7 that US forces “eliminated inbound threats” and struck Iranian military facilities responsible for attacks on US forces after Iran targeted US naval assets in and around the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM stated that the United States “does not seek escalation.”

MORE| The Iranian regime is preparing for economic instability that could cause domestic unrest. This effort supports the “negative” strategic objective of preventing regime collapse caused by protests that result from serious economic instability. Read More: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW | Iran seeks to achieve positive strategic objectives beyond the negative objective of surviving the war. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

MORE | Iran likely seeks to send a message to other Gulf countries that they could become targets if they increase cooperation with the US and Israel as the UAE did. IRGC-affiliated media claimed on 5/4 that the UAE has become an Israeli “pawn.” 1/4

NEW | Iran has conducted a series of attacks against the United Arab Emirates (UAE) over the past 48 hours that are likely intended, in part, to isolate the UAE from other Gulf states. Read today's update from CTP and @thestudyofwar.bsky.social: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira... (1/12)

NEW| Iran is continuing its escalation by sustaining drone, cruise missile, and ballistic missile strikes against the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Read CTP-ISW's latest analysis about the war here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira... (1/8)

MORE | The US-Iran conflict is one of attrition, in which each side is trying to impose economic costs on the other in a bid to extract concessions, according to a report from the Iranian Armed Forces General Staff-run Defa Press from May 2. Read More: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW | Iran is attempting to demonstrate its “control” over the Strait of Hormuz in response to US attempts to secure freedom of commercial navigation in the strait. Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW | A leaked European intelligence report highlights Russian President Vladimir Putin's increasing concern over his personal safety and the safety of his senior officials. Read the full report: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

BREAKING | An Iranian drone attack caused a fire at the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), marking the first Iranian attack on a Gulf state since the US-Iran ceasefire went into effect on April 8. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

MORE | Phase 1 of Iran’s proposal includes a “complete end to the war” within 30 days, a mutual “guarantee of non-aggression” between the United States, Israel, Iran, and the Axis of Resistance. Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW | Somali pirates have conducted the most hijackings in Somali waters in a 10-day period since the end of the peak of the Somali piracy crisis in 2012. 🧵⬇️

Ukrainian forces continue their long-range strike campaign against Russian military assets and oil infrastructure, exploiting vulnerabilities in Russian air defenses.

Iran’s counterproposal to the United States reportedly includes a three-phase plan that seeks to quickly end the war, guarantee no future combined force strikes on Iran, and address the Strait of Hormuz in the first phase, while delaying talks on Iran’s nuclear program to a second phase.

Iran does not appear to have altered its negotiating position over the management of the Strait of Hormuz and its nuclear program in its latest proposal. Read today's update from CTP and @thestudyofwar.bsky.social: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira... (1/6)

NEW I US President Donald Trump stated that he is “not satisfied” with Iran’s latest proposal. Trump’s dissatisfaction reflects continued Iranian inflexibility on key issues, such as the nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz. 1/6 Read more here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

NEW | Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev emphasized Russia's commitment to its war aims in Ukraine and claimed that Russia is in an existential conflict with the West after Trump's call with Putin on April 29. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

NEW | Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei declared on April 30 that Iran will retain control over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and maintain its nuclear and missile capabilities. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

MORE | Iran is shoring up internal unity in response to growing pressure on the economy caused by the war, sanctions, and the blockade. This is presumably an initial step in a more comprehensive internal security plan. Read More: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...