My latest covers the efforts by Alawite insurgents to foment sectarian conflict to undermine and destabilize the interim Syrian government covers the recent uptick in both real and unconfirmed sectarian violence in western Syria. Read here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ala...

The Houthis announced yesterday that they will resume attacks on maritime shipping. The US air campaign against the Houthis will not deter the group, as I've previously argued. These attacks drive up the cost of goods due to increases in shipping costs. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the...

I created a new map layer for @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social that shows insurgent presence across Syria. The new Syrian interim government faces a nascent insurgency across the country. Read more here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/und...

One thing that’s clear is that while Syria has a Ministry of Defense it does not have a military. Faction integration is current more hypothetical than anything else

The emerging insurgency in western Syria underscores the need to engage with and support Damascus--though not without conditions. This insurgency stands only to help US adversaries and damage US interests in the Middle East. Read here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the...

Important, after repatriating 15K since 2021 (3K in 2025) Iraq has now paused repatriations from Syria after US funding cuts to its transit camp Jedda 1. Iraqis are the majority of Al-Hol residents: "Baghdad pushes for global action on Al-Hol repatriation" shafaq.com/en/Iraq/Bagh...

New | A burgeoning insurgency led by pro-Assad elements is emerging in western Syria. (1/3) www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

Trump can't have a pro-Israel foreign policy when he has a pro-Russia one. Now the Israelis are considering dialing back intelligence cooperation over fears of Trump's pro-Russia posture. www.ynetnews.com/article/b1d8...

This is a sure fire way to give Iran the opening it wants to rebuild its networks in Syria. A probable IRGC-backed group already popped up on Feb 27. My question for those championing Israeli operations in southern Syria: how does this end?

MORE: Russia continues to showcase its deepening relations with American adversaries despite Putin's effort to posture Russia's receptiveness to negotiations with the United States. (1/3) isw.pub/UkrWar022825

ISIS is not destroyed and may present an increased terror threat if the withdrawal of US forces from Syria reverses hard-earned gains. ISIS could reconstitute to dangerous levels rapidly, @brian_cartr observes: 🧵 www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/a-u...

An important new piece on the potential for ISIS to reconstitute should US forces withdraw from Syria from @briancarter.bsky.social:

A US withdrawal from #Syria risks reversing hard-earned gains that the US has made against #ISIS. The current presence in Syria now faces few threats and it keeps ISIS contained. A withdrawal now would risk ISIS’s reconstitution. Read here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/a-u...

CTP-ISW’s Middle East Team is shifting to a 5-day coverage schedule with a focus on Iran and the Axis of Resistance in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen in response to the Israeli defeats of Hamas and Hezbollah. CTP-ISW will escalate to 7-day coverage of the region should future conditions warrant it. 🧵

The Israeli campaign in Gaza was a military success, but it has fallen short thus far of setting conditions to replace Hamas. The reality that Hamas remains a potent governance actor in Gaza despite the Israeli operation does not mean that the campaign in the strip is a failure. Link ⬇️ for my latest

The Islamic State continues to evolve and expand globally. @liamkarr.bsky.social and @briancarter.bsky.social review how recent shifts in the international counterterrorism posture in Syria and Africa risk creating security vacuums that IS can exploit to strengthen further.🧵

Israel has diminished the strategic threat of Hezbollah and secured a ceasefire that ensures the Israeli right to self-defense against any future threat that Hezbollah may pose as well. @briancarter.bsky.social 's latest article assesses Israel's victory in Lebanon🧵

The Houthis are now a strategic threat with global implications for the US. The US decision to "avoid" escalation has failed and the Houthis are undeterred. The policy of "managing escalation" in fact encourages escalation and protracts conflicts. My latest www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the...

UNIFIL says 122-mm rockets struck its Sector West Headquarters in Shama, injuring four Italian peacekeepers. unifil.unmissions.org/unifil-state...

My team @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social's latest on the Israeli op in Lebanon. The Israelis began by disrupting Hezbollah's ops and org before exploiting Hezbollah's disruption to destroy the group's capabilities along the Israel-Lebanon border. isw.pub/LebanonCampaign

Beginning my Bluesky journey sharing my latest in the Hudson Institute's Current Trends in Islamist Ideology. The death of Ebrahim Raisi in May upended the political status quo in Tehran and triggered an impromptu reshaping of the Iranian political landscape. www.hudson.org/politics-gov...

Fantastic thread going over Hezbollah, Hamas, etc. claims targeting Merkavas since 10/7.

Seems like a good time to re-up my recent piece for @thestudyofwar.bsky.social, specifically forecasting the impacts of the Russia-North Korea relationship as they apply to the Korean Peninsula and wider Asia Pacific region ⬇️ www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder...

Al Akhbar reported what I suspected—IDF is moving toward an elevated point on the Lebanese coast that overlooks a UNIFIL position and more importantly, a reported Hezbollah Naval Unit site. Source for the site in replies.

Iran has very likely restarted its nuclear weapons program but not yet decided to build a weapon. This assessment with @thestudyofwar.bsky.social is based on publicly reported US and Israeli intelligence about Iranian activity at the Parchin Military Complex, which Israel struck on October 25.

NEW: Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reportedly called on Lebanese Hezbollah to accept a ceasefire agreement that would require Hezbollah to remain north of the Litani River per UN Security Council Resolution 1701. Iran Update w @criticalthreats.bsky.social: isw.pub/IranUpdate11... More ⏬(1/5)

"Why Sinwar launched his attack before Hezbollah felt ready is unclear: He may simply have grown impatient." 10/7 was tragic--but it could have been much worse had Sinwar waited for Hezbollah. He was extremely overconfident in Hamas' abilities, but he did think that 10/7 would destroy Israel.

This is a fantastic piece on Trump II's options for Iran policy, and I agree that identifying goals will be key. I'd add only that Trump can't ignore Russia as it crafts Iran sanctions, because Iran will turn to Russia as it tries to circumvent sanctions. www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analy...

NEW I US and Israeli officials are in the "final stages” of drafting language for a ceasefire proposal to end the fighting in Lebanon, according to unspecified US and Israeli officials. Latest: isw.pub/IranUpdate11... Hezbollah could pursue several courses of action in response.🧵 1/6

Read the @criticalthreats.bsky.social and @thestudyofwar.bsky.social latest on Israel’s October 25 Strike targeting Iran. The strike knocked out key Iranian SAMs and damaged production facilities, leaving Iran vulnerable going forward. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the...

Great to talk to Times Radio about the fighting in the Gaza Strip with my Critical Threats Project colleague Nicholas Carl! You can see our appearance here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=SmJj... Menasky

An Al-Masdar Online investigation unveils that the Houthis employed archived video footage of previous attacks, specifically targeting UAE and Saudi Arabia in 2022, in their recent announcement of an attack against Israel a few days ago. almasdaronline.com/articles/284194