NEW | The RSF captured el Fasher after an 18-month siege, solidifying a de facto partition in Sudan. The Emirati-backed RSF is committing war crimes that are likely crimes against humanity & possibly acts of ethnic cleansing. Details in the Africa File: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/sud...

"Analysis by the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) outlined how Russia is filling a vacuum left by former colonizers, France, and capitalizing on recent conflicts and autocratic regimes that mirror Moscow's." @newsweek.com newsweek.com/russia-afric...

With the United States looking to restart its peace efforts in Sudan, @liamkarr.bsky.social writes that the US has an opportunity to secure a key security objective and humanitarian victory. 🧵 Read more here: realclearworld.com/articles/202...

NEW | Al Qaeda's Sahelian affiliate JNIM overran Djibo on May 11 in one of its largest ever attacks in Burkina Faso. JNIM is strengthening while civilians are bearing the brunt of Russian-backed junta leader Ibrahim Traoré's brutal & ineffective regime. 🧵

NEW | Al Qaeda’s Sahelian affiliate, JNIM, carried out its deadliest-ever attack in Benin as it continues to increase the lethality of its operations in Benin in 2025. More on the JNIM campaign and its implications from this week's Africa File: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr... 🧵

NEW | Al Shabaab captured two key areas in central Somalia as it continues to gain momentum. Al Shabaab's gains have set conditions to undo the US-backed Somali counterterrorism offensive in 2022. More from this week's Africa File: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr... 1/8 🧵

NEW | The Rapid Support Forces has committed war crimes as it has intensified efforts to consolidate control over western Sudan. RSF atrocities include attacks on the Zamzam refugee camp and are possibly constituent acts of ethnic cleansing or genocide. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr...

NEW | External meddling in Sudan shows no signs of stopping amid the country’s now two-year civil war. US partners such as the UAE, as well as US adversaries such as Iran and Russia, threaten US interests in the Red Sea by fueling the war. (1/6)

Check out my op-ed for @thehill.com on the "security-for-minerals" discussions between the Democratic Republic of the Congo & the United States. The potential risks & costs are high, and the extent of the benefits is unclear. Here's what US officials should consider: thehill.com/opinion/inte... 🧵

The Alliance of Sahel States (AES) juntas lashed out against China in their latest crackdown on allegedly exploitative international investment. This move marks an expansion of the juntas' pro-sovereignty economic campaign beyond Western mining companies. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr... 🧵

The Congolese army & allied militias recaptured the district capital Walikale town after M23 withdrew. The retreat reduces M23’s leverage entering Qatari-mediated negotiations with the DRC and could indicate the group is facing capacity and supply challenges.🧵 www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr...

Some notable takeaways from Gen. Langley's posture statement to the US Senate today that shed light on the Trump admin's priorities in Africa: - Russia is not mentioned. China got a whole section. - A paragraph is devoted to AFRICOM's efforts to support US investment in critical minerals. 🧵

NEW | The Kremlin is strengthening its strategic relationship with the Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. The AES helps the Kremlin supplant Western influence, pose as a great power, and possibly threaten NATO's southern flank. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr... 🧵

NEW | The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) fully retook central Khartoum from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), marking a major military and political victory for the SAF. What it means for Sudan's civil war: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr...

Lots of talk about the deteriorating situation in Somalia lately. I think the immediate threat to Mogadishu may be overstated, but the backsliding in central Somalia is setting conditions for AS to encircle Mog & generate an existential threat in the medium term. More below⬇️

NEW | The Democratic Republic of the Congo & Rwanda agreed to a Qatari-mediated ceasefire, but fundamental disagreements and obstacles remain. Rwandan-backed M23 advanced westward & captured a key district capital on March 19 despite ceasefire efforts. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr... 🧵

Renewed conflict in Tigray or between Ethiopia and Eritrea would generate an economic, humanitarian, and security crisis that would have reverberations across Africa and even into Europe.🧵 Read the full update here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr...

NEW | Rwandan-backed M23 rebels continued their advance along the RN2 road southwest of Bukavu in central South Kivu and entered Mwenga district. M23 has advanced over 30 miles along the RN2 since March 1. Today's Congo War Security Review and maps: criticalthreats.org/briefs/congo... 🧵⬇️

NEW | Pro-Congolese government militia fighters launched counterattacks against M23-aligned rebels that likely involved ethnically-motivated retaliatory violence against Banyamulenge civilians in South Kivu. Today's Congo War Security Review and maps: www.criticalthreats.org/briefs/congo...

NEW | IS Sahel Province (ISSP) is conducting a campaign to establish attack capabilities in Morocco and potentially use Morocco as a bridge for attacks in Europe. More details below from the latest Africa File: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/afr... ⬇️🧵1/6

Utterly shameful behavior from Trump + Vance. Belittling and humiliating an ALLY who has done everything to fight for the literal survival of his people (and the free world). Russia's daily atrocities against the Ukrainian people clearly mean nothing to this admin- and that's a bad precedent to set.

Don't cover Ukraine, but this is awful & embarrassing. This is the patronizing approach that people have criticized the US for using with African allies for years. We are bad partners to treat our allies, who are fighting for their existence, in this way.

NEW | Rwandan-backed M23 rebels declared a unilateral “humanitarian” ceasefire in the eastern DRC ahead of peace talks scheduled for February 7 and 8. M23 already broke the ceasefire, however, and a long-term political solution remains unlikely. 1/6

NEW | Algeria & the United States have tightened their relationship as Algeria seeks to diversify its partnerships beyond its traditional partner, Russia. Stronger Algerian-US ties will benefit US efforts to counter Russia, Iran, and Salafi-jihadi insurgents. 1/7 🧵

NEW | The war in the eastern DRC will likely escalate further after Rwandan-backed M23 captured Goma, the provincial capital of North Kivu, continued to advance into South Kivu, and stated that it aims to take Kinshasa. The latest on the battlefield and what could be next⬇️🧵1/7

The Islamic State continues to evolve and expand globally. @liamkarr.bsky.social and @briancarter.bsky.social review how recent shifts in the international counterterrorism posture in Syria and Africa risk creating security vacuums that IS can exploit to strengthen further.🧵

As quoted in @nytimes.com, CTP assesses that Russia is setting conditions in Libya to replace its footprint in Syria. These efforts include likely upgrading Russian positions in Libya & working towards securing permission for a Russian naval base. More below🧵⬇️

My latest on Russia in Libya and Syria. I assessed before Assad's fall that Libya was the natural pivot option for the Kremlin and gave details on the pros & cons last week. There were lots of Russian cargo flights to Libya this week, both from Russia & reportedly from Syria.⬇️

Lots of reporting on Russia withdrawing from Syria and reinforcing Libya. Also worth noting increased Russian activity from Libya to Mali in the last 24-48 hours. Some quick details and resources below.🧵⬇️

Sudan is another potential option for the Kremlin if it looks to shift from post-Assad Syria. However, Russia has a much smaller & less well-established position in Sudan than it does in Libya and faces similar political challenges in Sudan as it does in Libya. 🧵⬇️

An alternative hypothesis I explore in this week's Africa File is that the Sahelian regimes & other Russian partners could view the Assad regime’s collapse as an indictment of the Assad regime, not of the Kremlin as a partner, and not seek to change their approach to Russia. 🧵⬇️

Russia is taking a middling approach as it tries to negotiate a deal to remain in post-Assad Syria with the new Syrian transitional authorities. Russia has prepared to move some military assets out of Syria but has not signaled that a complete withdrawal is imminent. 🧵⬇️ (1/6)

I wrote a week ago about how Assad's fall in Syria would threaten Russia's strategy to project power in the Mediterranean & Africa (at NATO) and damage Russia's perception as an effective partner. I'll discuss the Kremlin's pivot options in Libya & Sudan in a piece tomorrow.🧵⬇️

Russia's failure to reinforce the Assad regime in Syria will damage the global view of Russia as an effective partner, negatively affecting the Kremlin's ability to garner support for its broader aims to create a Russian-led multipolar world & posture as a superpower. 🧵(1/9)

The loss of Russian bases in Syria will have major implications for Russia’s global military footprint and ability to operate in Africa. 🧵(1/5)

“Russia withdraws ships, weapons from Syria, Ukrainian intelligence reports” kyivindependent.com/russia-withd...

CTP's @liamkarr.bsky.social: Assad’s collapse would damage the global perception of Russia as an effective partner and protector, potentially threatening Russia’s partnerships w/ African autocrats and its resulting economic, military, & political influence in Africa. isw.pub/AfricaFile12...

NEW | Chad and Senegal stated their intentions to end defense accords with France that authorized French deployments to both countries, which threatens to unravel France’s remaining logistics and military footprint in Africa and create opportunities for Russia. 1/8

The two main figures behind Africa Corps, Deputy Defense Minister Gen. Yevkurov & GRU Gen. Averyanov, were in Africa last week. They went everywhere that has an Africa Corps contingent...and Togo. Keep an eye on Togo. There were rumors of advisors/mutual interest in February & March.

NEW | Russia may redeploy Africa Corps units to Syria to reinforce the Assad regime in Syria. A scenario in which Syrian rebels toppled the Assad regime would harm the Kremlin’s strategic objectives in Africa and surrounding waterways such as the Mediterranean and Red Seas. 1/7

Ukrainian GUR reported that Russia is sending Africa Corps units to reinforce Syria. The Kremlin also moved some Africa Corps to Ukraine during the Kursk offensive. Syria shift still to be seen, but it seems that Africa is unsurprisingly a low priority when capacity is stretched.

NEW | The juntas in Mali and Niger are pressuring Western mining companies out of the region and partnering with Russia to fill the void.

Updated map assessments for JNIM and ISSP (finally)! Not all activity is equal, and these assessments try to dig and give a more detailed picture of how JNIM and ISSP operate across the Sahel. The full update also has in-depth campaign analyses for my fellow Sahel watchers.⬇️ 1/2

Russia continues to blatantly protect its own interests and prolong violence at the cost of innocent civilians. Same old playbook of giving brutal military regimes international cover while giving those regimes all the weapons they need to keep up the slaughter.

Burkina Faso's community leaders and humanitarian organisation negotiators face huge pressures from the military government. Its radical martial approach to the jihadist insurgency is rapidly transforming Burkinabe society - notably norms around dialogue. www.thenewhumanitarian.org/news-feature...

The Somali Federal Government (SFG) is increasingly at odds with the Jubbaland state government in southwestern Somalia over election reforms, increasing the risk of political violence. Learn more below 🧵