Shane Lowry holing an eagle putt and shouting "fuck you" at the American crowd is the highlight of the Ryder Cup so far. Even better than McIlroy telling to "shut the fuck up" earlier.

While everyone is focusing on the Fabians the Co-Operative movement have free rein to plot their own conspiracies. Obvious black ops.

Ellie Kildunne is ridiculous.

Strategy Grand Old Man, Lawrence freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social weighs in on the latest Russian provocations. Do read: samf.substack.com/p/russian-pr...

Patrick is absolutely right that Labour lacks a sufficient intellectual culture - but instead of reading race-war Whatsapp essays from anonymous crackheads, Labour MPs should subscribe to @renewaljournal.bsky.social for serious and informed strategic analysis and argument

Been having a very stressful morning watching my son in a ju-jitsu tournament. Silver medal. No idea how I had a child who's good at martial arts.

Very interesting on a bunch of things including reparations

New post from @ldfreedman.bsky.social On Russia's provocations in Poland, Romania, Denmark and elsewhere. And what NATO and the EU can do to respond. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/r...

This week's post looking at why the Tories are getting close to total collapse, how it would happen, and how the political landscape changes if it does. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/l...

Opened the door to find a fox had shat on my copy of the weekend FT. Feels like some kind of very specific omen.

I know we live in a world filled with terrible people doing awful things but I still the worst are Americans shouting "get in the hole" at the Ryder Cup.

We don't live in a world anymore where you can do one piece for the Telegraph and an interview with the Guardian + appeal to two different audiences with different messages. Anyone interested can see what you're doing.

Reminder that Skinner is political strategy genius Dom Cummings suggested candidate for London mayor.

Another excellent piece. This is striking (and I speak from the right hand section of the chart).

Brits don't hate them! They have always had substantial majority support in polls. (Most recent YG showed 57% support vs 25% oppose). What's odd is that bits of the right-wing press oppose them (e.g. today's Mail front page).

Had a conversation with someone the other day in which they, at different points, said the minimum wage was too high, damaging the economy + that immigration was bad because low pay for Brits. Where do you start?

Anyone fancy a Korean edition of Failed State? Cool cover but not of much use to me...

This morning's MRP from YouGov goes to my post yesterday on why the Tories are so close to collapse. The longer Reform is this far ahead the stronger the incentive to defect. samf.substack.com/p/last-rites...

"Least I saw off Boris"

Yields were up everywhere today. A little more here than elsewhere but the budget and global worries about debt are a bigger issue than Burnham. Pound is down against the dollar because US GDP was revised up.

New post just out: "Last Rites" What happens if the Tories completely disintegrate? I look at why a rapid collapse is increasingly plausible, how it would play out, and how it would change the political landscape. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/last-rites

This @samfr.bsky.social post on the growing likelihood and possible implications of a Conservative implosion is fascinating - on the latter, as much for its discussion of the impact on the Lib Dems as on Reform and Labour open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/l...

This is big - three of them were appointed by Republican Presidents. Though I have to admit I thought Greenspan was dead, but he's still going at 99.

Burnham clearly wants to be PM but he's also a long way away from being PM so perhaps we can calm down about bond markets.

Yeah, they get a lot of headlines because their results are so out of whack with everyone else. (I think this is the first poll with the Tories 4th), but their methodology is v suspect.

Putin has increased Russia's VAT rate to 22% from 20%, breaking a pledge not to raise taxes before 2030. Another indication of a creaking Russian economy.

"The future of one of the oldest and most successful political parties in the world could be in the hands of Robert Jenrick. Which is about as demeaning a predicament as one can imagine."

Very interesting piece from @samfr.bsky.social One reason for the decline of the centre (right) parties are declining is *very* few can afford a decent life by working hard There are too few well-paying jobs *and* you need help from Mum and Dad for a house It's a living standards problem

New post just out: "Last Rites" What happens if the Tories completely disintegrate? I look at why a rapid collapse is increasingly plausible, how it would play out, and how it would change the political landscape. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/last-rites

Another piece of (excellent) research showing that support for the far-right is never going to be driven purely by either 'culture' or 'economics'. Inevitably, both are involved - and they're often inseparable.

This resonates for me - both my kids have been following the Charlie Kirk and Jimmy Kimmel stories blow by blow, while knowing next to nothing about what is happening in British politics. TikTok is the reason.

As I set out in this post focusing on the local is key to beating Reform. But another regeneration fund, while welcome, isn't going to be enough. samf.substack.com/p/burn-it-do...

Child Poverty Task Force will recommend scrapping the two child limit according to The Times. But publication is being delayed and no clarity over whether Government will accept the recommendation even though it's coming from two cabinet ministers. www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...

Also Farage has ruled out accepting a Boris defection so he doesn't really have much option.

Also Luke was literally a SPAD for a Conservative cabinet minister. Sure he leans left compared to Matt but so would Margaret Thatcher.

As ever don't over-read from one poll. Also worth noting that this kind of movement isn't necessarily by people changing parties but by those who voted Labour in 2024 shifting back from "don't know".

This is really dangerous territory for Farage. He's being pushed towards crankery by the radicalisation of online support.

New post from @ldfreedman.bsky.social "One last push?" The Russians are gearing up for a major offensive in the Donbas. What are its chances of success? The result could be critical to the outcome of the war. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/o...

My son found a swastika drawn on our road the other day. In one of the most left/liberal constituencies in the country.

Why does anyone agree to be interviewed by Isaac Chotiner? Do they not know his work? Do they think they'll be able to best him?

Latest post returns to the battle for Pokrovsk in which both sides have invested heavily. The stakes are high - Russia needs to show something for this year’s constant and costly offensives. (£/free trial). samf.substack.com/p/one-last-p...

Two excellent pieces from this last weekend about how damaging the new attention economy can be. One from @samfr.bsky.social

Even the bit free to read is interesting. Per Zelenskyy, Putin told US that ‘he would take Donbas in two to three months, maximum four months.’ They must take Pokrovsk to have a hope of taking Donbas. But can he even do that in 4 months?

New post from @ldfreedman.bsky.social "One last push?" The Russians are gearing up for a major offensive in the Donbas. What are its chances of success? The result could be critical to the outcome of the war. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/o...

Reform's plans to end indefinite leave to remain go to the post I wrote last week on their slide towards chaotic authoritarianism. The British constitution would allow them to do it if they had a majority but at vast cost to our society and way of life. samf.substack.com/p/the-route-...

Shana Tova everyone. Off to Rosh Hashanah dinner.

Son is starting a band with a kid whose surname is Gorbachev so I suggested "Perestroika" as a name. Hoping they go with it.

This is incredibly sharp on TikTok, distraction and politics. Current UK government is communicating on terms that no longer exist

I'll have more to say on Reform's proposals to scrap ILR at some point but for now I'll just note this - anyone telling you this is a popular idea doesn't know the polling. Overwhelming majority of public back giving people who work and pay taxes most or all rights after 5 years or less

Three statements of local ambition stand in Halifax, West Yorkshire: the Town Hall, the Borough Market and the Piece Hall. Such monuments of civic pride still bear the names of farsighted local leaders from past generations. 🧵 1/13