Good that the US isn't trying to maintain extended deterrence against two revisionist challengers at different ends of Eurasia.

The fact that the President of Russia is probably suffering from leader-assassination envy due to the actions of the President of the United States does not say much for the current robustness of international norms.

Looks like Iran has decided on three types of targets: US military bases in the region (Bahrain & others), oil infrastructure (eastern Saudi Arabia) and, perhaps most escalatory of all, densely populated urban areas to maximise economic and political impact (Dubai).

Vibe check from Doha: folks are rattled but not freaking out. It seems anecdotally like UAE is getting hit worse. Always worried about shrapnel. Selfishly and irrelevantly glad to be teaching a course on nuclear politics this term—relevance, baby! Feeling more confident in the need for scholarship.

Presumably for the US, since Trump has already declared regime change an objective. If not, then there is a serious mismatch between this alleged military plan and the broader strategy.

Can't think of another example where the serving Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff essentially made it known that he considered a military operation a mistake *beforehand*, but the admin went ahead anyway.

Note to Europeans: The US is (once again) firing all these precious missiles that are also earmarked for use in a contingency in Europe.🙃 If you need further proof that US extended deterrence in Europe is becoming more and more porous by the day.

Quick reactions after learning that no, nobody could stop him. 1/ goodauthority.org/news/trump-m... 1/

Given constraints on munitions & logistics, I expected US to launch limited Iran campaign. Trump has instead announced most expansive goals imaginable: regime change, destruction of conventional military + end of nuclear ambitions. Unclear how US will square this circle.

Iran's use of its threshold status (just short of a nuclear weapon) as a virtual deterrent has comprehensively failed. States without a reliable nuclear ally will be more apt to see the development of a nuclear capability as a binary delusion: go for nukes or don't.

I can't believe Tony Blair would get mixed up wi-- oh, actually that makes sense.

"Epic Fury" = "Large-scale disordered, destructive rage." Fits.

The "debate" in the run-up to this makes Iraq 2003 look like the Athenian polis.

Iran's use of its threshold status (just short of a nuclear weapon) as a virtual deterrent has comprehensively failed. States without a reliable nuclear ally will be more apt to see the development of a nuclear capability as a binary delusion: go for nukes or don't.

This is looking extremely bad, let's be frank.

They seem unable to comprehend that states except the three they think of as great powers have any agency - in their terminology, apart from the US, China, and Russia, it's all NPCs. Since they've sacked most of the people with knowledge and experience, there's no-one around to tell them different.

War, that famously predictable thing that always turns out exactly the way leaders planned it.

No. NO. NO NO NO.

Hello Bluesky! My new book, THE FIREARM REVOLUTION, is out on 14 April. It’s about how a new technology changed society, and how hard it was to control. Here’s a little thread of what’s inside:

Macron's nuclear speech coming this Monday.

1956 called and wants its pretext for war back.

Good to see that everyone is on top of things.

University dropout inadvertently illustrating the downsides of dropping out

Summers is retiring and he is 71. If he were working at a lot of European universities, he would be retiring anyway!

My latest Substack post, with some thoughts on Chinese testing, and some half-baked thoughts on its effects on the arms control framework. horsdoeuvresofbattle.substack.com/p/causes-and...

NC3 in US already relies in LLMs for early warning and signal processing. So humans are already subject to AI “affected” data. The core question for me at the moment is how informed are national leaders going to be about the extent of AI in the information they get when making nuclear decisions.

Handing over the nuclear codes to AI is (hopefully) beyond the pale for nuclear-weapons states. The trickier part is the gray zone, where humans are reliant on AI to process the intelligence feeding into a launch decision. At what point does a human "decision-maker" become a puppet of the AI?

Here it is! "Beyond Manoeuvre Theory for European Defence" by Sam Vincent (@samvin.bsky.social) and me. Give it a read. I promise you there's something in there for everyone to hate! And it is open access! Summary in thread: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Good point. It's underappreciated today how much 1990-91 Gulf War opponents, even Dem HASC/SASC members, emphasized risks of high US casualities, protraction, even losing. "Another Vietnam". Then lost credibility when the war went vastly better than they warned. 1/

Brezhnev-style.

A big problem with Trump's unclear rationale for striking Iran: if he's really set on regime change, then Tehran has zero incentive to make concessions on its nuclear program. That's on top of his proven unreliability re commitment to all manner of agreements, even ones he has negotiated.

If Instructure can't guarantee Canvas's integrity, then why should universities continue to pay thousands annually to use it?

You know studying at degree level is not compulsory right? If you don’t want to study you can just not do higher education. You don’t need a little robot called Einstein to destroy the planet for you not to learn anything.

Professor John Nightingale, iconic medievalist and Fellow of Magdalen, who taught me Einhard's Life of Charlemagne, retires this summer. So Oxford and Magdalen are recruiting. There is no better place to teach and research medieval history than this: in the footsteps of Karl Leyser.

The next slide: "This, but nuclear signaling."

The mark of a well-conceived operation is when your top military advisor is letting every journalist who will listen know that he is against it.

There is a possibility that Netanyahu, seeing Trump's hesitation, just flicks a match onto the vat of gasoline.

This Thursday I will be giving a talk about my NEW BOOK on Truman and the bomb at the London School of Economics (LSE): www.lse.ac.uk/internationa...

"Iran has refused to concede to President Trump’s demands on its nuclear program and weapons — a stance that has bewildered U.S. officials." I guess many international issues are bewildering if you know next to nothing about them.

Some thoughts on the impending U.S. operation against Iran: 1) Within hours, the United States, together with Israel, will establish complete air dominance over Iran. What follows will be a highly visible display of power that only the United States can generate at scale. 1/6

We had Carlton. People living on the other side of the hill got Meridian.

I would guess that US adversaries will be watching any campaign against Iran to see how effective American attacks on Iranian missile forces -- and hence US conventional counterforce capabilities -- actually are. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/22/w...

Iran will submit a proposal — it would be irrational not to. Then what? The Iranians can keep talking, while the US can only maintain its current buildup for so long. I'm not enough of an expert on military logistics to say how long. I would guess only a couple of weeks at peak readiness?

I would guess that US adversaries will be watching any campaign against Iran to see how effective American attacks on Iranian missile forces -- and hence US conventional counterforce capabilities -- actually are. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/22/w...

The reports of "hospital boats for Greenland" are greatly exaggerated. Both US hospital SHIPS, USNS Mercy and Comfort, are in an Alabama Shipyard. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

Remember that time the Pentagon's National Defense Strategy declared that the US had "obliterated Iran's nuclear program"? That was **checks notes** January 23, less than 30 days ago.

Fascist Adam Curtis.

Feels weird to be nostalgic for the days of dodgy dossiers and freedom fries, but I guess that's where we are now.

No, any such plan to limit Iran's nuclear program would be a completely unique manifestation of President Trump's outstanding genius and bear only a superficial resemblance to any previous, lesser, agreements. That should be our story and we should stick to it if that's what it takes.

A very detailed story on US-UK efforts in 2021-2022 to warn Ukraine and the rest of Europe about a Russian invasion. If Trump had been in charge: A) Would the US have made such an intelligence-led push to inform allies of Russian plans? B) What are the implications of that for future crises?