Great how Europe is redeploying some of its best equipment away from Russia to deal with a crisis created by our "security guarantor."

Great how Europe is redeploying some of its best equipment away from Russia to deal with a crisis created by our "security guarantor."

Yes, just as Trump likes starting all his wars at the weekend.

The problem is that, because this is a war with multiple parties, Trump can't easily implement steps 3 and 4 of his familiar cycle.

It would be grimly ironic if Trump's Iran war were the thing that finally triggered the US AI market collapse.

The problem is that, because this is a war with multiple parties, Trump can't easily implement steps 3 and 4 of his familiar cycle.

The complete irrelevance of Russia in this war compared to the USSR IN 1973 is notable. No emergency airlifted munitions as far as we know, and the possibility of paratroopers being readied for action, well… most of those soldiers died in Ukraine four years ago.

Rabobank on the unfolding worst case scenario:

This was in every single undergrad-level crisis simulation of this exact situation for the past 15+ years.

Thinking of the Trump-supporting restrainers at this difficult time.

I'm sure it will be a great comfort to Iranians to know that Israel is blowing up their energy infrastructure in cooperation with the US, rather than the US blowing up their energy infrastructure in cooperation with Israel.

There is basically zero chance the @iaeaorg goes commando, as it were. (10x the IAEA-UNCSOM tension in post-1991 Iraq. Disaster.) More likely is an Iraq Survey Group-like arrangement, which maybe includes some friendly former IAEA inspectors and consultants. @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social

Isfahan is in central Iran. That would be an enormous operation.

I see that someone else has attached my post, but I'll do it again. An operation like this is demanding in peacetime. Now add a war.

I would say that 2 and 3 both hold. 3. The nuclear facilities were damaged in last June's bombings. 2. I would guess that a satellite is tasked to monitor Isfahan continuously. I have long argued that the danger of "terrorists" is far less than people make it out to be.

The unfailing ability of UK political pundits to make every international crisis into an inside-Westminster story.

On the one hand, it would be professional malpractice if the US and Israel had not discussed how to secure Iran's HEU. On the other hand, it's professional malpractice to give the Iranian regime a big heads-up that the US and Israel are planning to secure Iran's HEU.

"American intelligence agencies have determined that Iran or potentially another group could retrieve Iran’s primary store of highly enriched uranium even though it was entombed under the country’s nuclear site at Isfahan by U.S. strikes last year."

New war reason just dropped.

This crew must be absolutely wrecked.

If nothing else, you would think that the risk of an oil-price shock months before the midterms would be enough for congressional Republicans to get a handle on this.

“We are trapped between the regime that is killing us with machine guns, and a foreign power has likely decided that we are collateral damage.”

So much winning.

Today in wars are predictable and easy to win.

So there is a story about the "top 10 cities at risk during nuclear war" circulating in various tabloids/etc. with my name attached to it, and I will say that a) I never have (nor would) make such a list at all, and b) I never said any of the quotes attributed to me in the article.

So the man who thought that Khomeini and Khamenei were the same person is now in charge of Homeland Security.

gRanD sTratEgY

Why just having "a human in the loop" is not good enough.

This means nothing. They say this when they don't have an answer because they think it makes them look determined and strategic. They have no idea what they are doing.

US teams under cover of large scale bombardment could get there and out again. And it might be enough to blow the canisters up in place.

It's somewhere not near the sea, which is the only likely US approach. We can recall the unsuccessful attempt at bringing the hostages out under Jimmy Carter, plus a war going on. And, as you say, we don't know where it is. Securing it in place would be an unending firefight.

That would be an enormous job. It is probably in the form of UF6, in cylinders. Since they've been hauling it around, the cylinders are probably mid-sized, maybe a ton each? Or smaller, a couple hundred pounds? Smaller, of course, means more of them.

If they knew where Iran's HEU was, they would surely have tried to secure it by now?

When the UK sank the Belgrano during the Falklands War, there was a lot of controversy over whether the ship was sailing away from the battle area. As the Trump admin readily admits, this Iranian ship wasn't anywhere near the battle area. www.ft.com/content/d9d5...

Official translation of French President Macron’s Monday, 2 March speech on nuclear deterrence www.elysee.fr/en/emmanuel-...

When the UK sank the Belgrano during the Falklands War, there was a lot of controversy over whether the ship was sailing away from the battle area. As the Trump admin readily admits, this Iranian ship wasn't anywhere near the battle area. www.ft.com/content/d9d5...

A special military operation, if you will.

Yup. This time a “window of vulnerability” looks real.

Useful report from @csis.org back in December on interceptor munitions. In the 2025 Israel-Iran exchanges over 12 days: Iran - 500x ballistic missiles US - 150x THAAD, 80x SM-3 US also used 200x SM-2 or SM-6 missiles against Houthis over a year. Procurement rates of interceptors is chaotic

I'm similarly worried that China and Russia will conclude that the US can't sustain a regional-scale air campaign for more than a few weeks and won't be in a position to do even that for two or so years. Particularly China might consider that a window to call BS on the US global deterrence posture.

This US-Israeli raiding approach to warfare, if it continues at the current operational tempo for weeks, could draw down INDOPACOM & EUCOM stocks that will take many years to replenish, further weakening US military readiness.

Unfortunately, I think we might start to see the acceleration of the established cycle in which Trump faces the consequences of his actions vs Iran, then takes even more dangerous/escalatory steps to try to deal with those, but instead precipitates even worse consequences.

US Navy: No availability to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, sorry. Trump: "If necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible."

So does that mean that the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review is now the authoritative statement of US nuclear policy? Perhaps an eight-year-old document might be a bit out of date?

Polish sources have the final sentence as "As our own autonomous capabilities grow, we will also strive to prepare Poland in the future for the most autonomous actions *possible* in this matter." In any case, this is proper nuclear hedging talk. www.polskieradio.pl/399/7975/Art...

Tusk: "We ​are investing heavily in future nuclear power plants, and ​Poland will not want to be passive when it comes to nuclear security in a military context." "We will cooperate with our allies...as our capabilities increase, ‌we ⁠will try to prepare Poland for autonomous action in this matter."

Informative French Ministry of Defense press kit on France's nuclear policy before Macron's speech today. Including this on the "nuclear warning"/final warning. www.defense.gouv.fr/sites/defaul...

The real US national security strategy lies in the revealed preferences.

Thread on the dispersal benefits of forward nuclear deterrence for France. More space to redeploy French nuclear-armed aircraft = more survivability.

The Trump administration will draw down on US weapons stocks in EUCOM and PACOM to fight its war of choice in the Middle East.