Norwegian PM Støre: "France is now opening up a dialogue with its close allies on how its nuclear weapons can contribute to European security and provide a deterrent against military threats. We will hold further talks with France on how the nuclear initiative can help to achieve this."

Norway will participate in France's "forward deterrence" nuclear initiative. Norway will also sign a mutual defense treaty with France, known as the Narvik Agreement. www.tv2.no/nyheter/plan...

Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre: "We are living in the most serious security situation since the Second World War. Therefore the goverment has a hedging strategy to give Norwegian security more legs to stand on."

Norway will participate in France's "forward deterrence" nuclear initiative. Norway will also sign a mutual defense treaty with France, known as the Narvik Agreement. www.tv2.no/nyheter/plan...

Europe doesn't have any strategic bombers and its number of conventionally-armed nuclear attack submarines similar to the US type is very limited — a total of 11 (6 UK and 5 France). Real availability will be lower.

2023 is calling 🤳 ecfr.eu/article/stri...

"The U.S. aims to provide only half the previous number of strategic bombers..." "...the number of U.S. fighter jets is set to fall by a third... "The U.S. Navy is also set to make fewer destroyers available to NATO, and the U.S. no longer intends to provide any submarines to the alliance."

The press release I saw claimed "gradual", and I think this is driven by arsenal shock, not policy or strategy.

Waiting for more details, but hard to square the drawdown of US strategic bombers with the notion that this part of a coordinated process in which allies will fill the gaps. No European NATO ally has strategic bombers.

Waiting for more details, but hard to square the drawdown of US strategic bombers with the notion that this part of a coordinated process in which allies will fill the gaps. No European NATO ally has strategic bombers.

According to a report by the German “Tagesschau” television news service, Russia is working on covertly emplacing intercontinental ballistic missiles on the seabed. How to make sense of this? A few insights from SNIE 11-12-68, published in August 1968 by the Central Intelligence Agency. 🧵

The problem is with the concept of "leading" & following. No European country can supplant the US. We need a less hierarchical conception of European security. A more equal division of responsibility will require more politically, financially, and intellectually than outsourcing to one "leader."

I would quite like to know what counts as "casual" in these stats. Do one-year teaching fellowships count as casual, for example?

Received my author's copy of Stephen Herzog, Giles Arceneaux, and Ariel Petrovics (eds.) "Atomic Backfires: Why Nuclear Policies Fail." Thanks to @herzogsm.bsky.social for ensuring its safe arrival in Norway! Check out the Open Access edition here: direct.mit.edu/books/oa-edi...

Iran has obligations under NPT to allow inspections/monitoring so this would be a straightforward thing to demand in negotiations but I guess international law is dumb and woke so 🤷 (also wouldn't be surprised if they didn't even know about it)

It's funny how we're pretending there might be a real nuclear deal when the IAEA hasn't had access to enrichment facilities in over a year.

Strong "You don't know my Iran deal because she goes to a school in Canada" vibes.

Received my author's copy of Stephen Herzog, Giles Arceneaux, and Ariel Petrovics (eds.) "Atomic Backfires: Why Nuclear Policies Fail." Thanks to @herzogsm.bsky.social for ensuring its safe arrival in Norway! Check out the Open Access edition here: direct.mit.edu/books/oa-edi...

"The exercise was designed to demonstrate NATO's capability to strike as far as St. Petersburg in order to destroy Russian targets — such as armored units and air defenses — which are attacking NATO troops."

This new podcast is rapidly turning into a weekly ritual for me. Looking forward to listening to this episode.

"We have so many munitions for Epic Fury that we are not going to sell any more to Taiwan to make sure we have enough." About the level of logical consistency we've come to expect.

On a thus-far amazing European excursion in Europe after a very long year. But work must continue, but perks of the job include getting to read excellent pieces like @jjjcameron.bsky.social’s recent chapter on MIRV in “Atomic Backfires” over lunch with some amazing wine in Rome.🍷

Useful analysis of the recent Belarusian non-strategic nuclear weapons exercise by @russianforces.org, including details on transporting Russian nonstrategic warheads from their storage sites, arming Iskander ballistic missiles, and transferring them to Belarusian control for launch.

Useful analysis of the recent Belarusian non-strategic nuclear weapons exercise by @russianforces.org, including details on transporting Russian nonstrategic warheads from their storage sites, arming Iskander ballistic missiles, and transferring them to Belarusian control for launch.

It’s 1898 plus 1899 (insurgency, blue water war, Jim Crow, and a China US war involving troops occupying a capital)

What about the Cuban counterinsurgency it might have to fight in between?

Did anything bad happen the last time a US president "did something" about Cuba?

My public research university literally has a cattle ranch

"The urgency of the threat has led several countries to start thinking about how, and under whose command, Europe would fight if NATO were to 'malfunction', as one official put it. 'What chain of command can you use if America is blocking NATO?' asks another defence official."

"NATO shouldn't worry until the US starts reducing its troop presence." "It's only Germany, not a front-line state like Poland." "Er..."

"NATO shouldn't worry until the US starts reducing its troop presence." "It's only Germany, not a front-line state like Poland." "Er..."

Late in 2025 I saw a presentation on philanthropic contributions to various issues, which gave the following numbers for these issues: $10B — climate change $900M — AI safety $200M — biological threats $45M — nuclear security To just give a sense of orders of magnitudes...

"We won't finalize the Defence Investment Plan, but will loosen sanctions on Russia, our main security threat." I think that tells you all you need to know about how serious Starmer and Reeves are about making difficult decisions on defence.

Book authors need to ensure their contracts are specific on how AI may or may not be used in editing. Within the last week, I’ve heard multiple stories on 300+ page manuscripts being returned within <3 days with edits completed—obviously only possible with AI use.

Very pleasing to get an email yesterday from @kingscollegelondon.bsky.social to say that, for three years starting in September, I'll be a Visiting Senior Research Fellow in the Department of War Studies. This institutional affiliation will help a lot and I can maybe do some fun stuff at KCL too!

"During his summit with Xi, Trump also suggested that the US, China and Russia should join forces to combat the [International Criminal Court], saying their interests were aligned, according to the people familiar with the talks."

📢 New article 🌟 👥 Hannah Jacob Barret @hannahjakobbarrett.bsky.social & Eric Gabo Ekberg Nilsen @egen97.bsky.social (ISV) 👉 How Threats of American Withdrawal from NATO Affect European Public Attitudes Toward Defense 📗 Open Access in International Organization 🔗 doi.org/10.1017/S002...

"Our man is a brilliant potential prime minister, but also if he's forced to discuss the central economic and foreign policy question facing the nation, his campaign will fall apart."

People say recent British prime ministers have not been capable of big grand-strategic moves, but they have -- just not ones that improve the country's prosperity or security.

Looking forward to long discussions about throw-weight, linkage between strategic and intermediate-range forces, and contending interpretations of the ABM Treaty.

I wonder what happened in 1964

It has always seemed inconceivable that Trump would send US troops to fight in Taiwan (yes, even after Iran). He said as much out loud. His admiration of Xi is longstanding. Never understood the China hawks' embrace of him.

Has anyone checked in with Bridge Colby recently?

It's almost as if Rubio doesn't believe in anything, isn't it? www.nytimes.com/2026/05/16/u...

Publication day! Taking Territory: The Persistence of Conquest Since 1945 is now out from @CornellPress! It offers a comprehensive account of the causes and consequences of attempts to conquer territory across the world since World War II.

Xi articulates srategic stability with Chinese characteristics. Sounds very much like a definition that facilitates China's rise while managing the risk of war, rather than standard military-balance and status-quo-oriented version. www.ft.com/content/6693...

Foreign leaders can just repeat existing policy at him, but because Trump is so ignorant he chalks it up as a huge win.

It was never going to be anything, because this administration has no deep policymaking capacity and no ability to credibly commit to any agreement.