For a moment, I thought she had made an unexpected comeback.

All three of NATO's nuclear powers are currently experiencing periods of domestic political turmoil, which is not great to put it mildly.

I mean honestly if I were interviewing her this morning I’d put together a montage of ICE smashing car windows over children, smashing people against walls etc. and say ‘just so I’m clear Kemi, this is what you want?’

Even in the narrow instrumental sense of dealing with the Faragist threat to the Conservative Party, Brexit has been a catastrophic failure.

International fees currently subsidise domestic fees. So the government is taking from the only pot that subsidises educating domestic students in order to subsidise educating domestic students. Cynically, I suspect the logic behind this is to performatively demonstrate toughness towards foreigners.

Half the time, I think the Trump people have a plan to overthrow the US Constition, and the other half I think they get up every morning and just wing it. Today's meeting with the generals encapsulates that ambiguity.

Foreign Relations of the United States, 1989–1992, Volume XXXI, START I, 1989–1991 is out today! Huge congratulations to @jamesgrahamwilson.bsky.social and the rest of the team at the State Department's Office of the Historian. history.state.gov/historicaldo...

Thank you!!!

Foreign Relations of the United States, 1989–1992, Volume XXXI, START I, 1989–1991 is out today! Huge congratulations to @jamesgrahamwilson.bsky.social and the rest of the team at the State Department's Office of the Historian. history.state.gov/historicaldo...

20th century Latin American military dictatorships have called, they want their National Security Doctrine back

It's not a hot war, but a... cold war?

And a 3-day camping expedition.

Someone in the White House currently typing "How do you tariff a movie?" into ChatGPT.

I spoke with NYT about the expanding DF-26 base in eastern China. www.nytimes.com/interactive/... Read more in our recent China Nuclear Notebook: www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10....

I wonder whose side they're on?

The leaders of which US allies are going to have to shuttle across the Pacific, like the Europeans did after the Putin summit, to talk Trump out of this?

If this is the case, then Bridge Colby really is just an empty suit.

If it is the existential fight the PM says, and one he is engaged in - would be good to hear more about why he disagrees with Reform? Usually he either accepts their main grievance is correct, or if they overstep a mark he gives a flat footed response days later? Perhaps I’m missing something

Hopefully it's just briefing the National Defense Strategy or something and not Operation Venezuelan Liberty.

I don’t understand the framing of this Politico story at all. Trump’s post is saying Europe is strong enough to back Ukraine on its own…. US is out, hence he closes with “Good luck to all.” This ain’t good. www.politico.eu/article/dona...

They didn't hear -- or chose to ignore -- the follow-up in which Trump equivocated on whether the US would back allies that did so.

"Sir, are you going to entrap or abandon your allies?" "I'll probably entrap them a little bit, then abandon them."

"Sir, are you going to entrap or abandon your allies?" "I'll probably entrap them a little bit, then abandon them."

"They should shoot down Russian aircraft, but I won't necessarily back them up if they do." Cool, cool. Great stuff.

Over the next few weeks I’ll be giving a handful of talks in the UK (thread). On Friday September 26 I’ll give a talk at Oxford at noon. talks.ox.ac.uk/talks/person...

The follow-up should be: "Would the United States stand behind a NATO member that shot down a Russian aircraft in its airspace?"

Is that a quote directly from the new NPR, or... ?

Yvette Cooper sitting there wondering whether someone put something in the tea or if this is real.

In a fresh press-release, the Norwegian government says that Russian aircraft have violated Norwegian airspace three times this year. Even during the Cold War, Soviet airspace violations were rare, and usually involved aircraft coming from Cuba, running low on fuel.

I would be more concerned about Putin's offer to extend the New START quant limits if I thought it would meaningfully affect the risk of nuclear-weapons use going forward. What we've seen since 2022 is nuclear risk rising and falling independently of Russia's attitude toward those limits.

"Oslo airport shut its airspace from midnight local time due to a drone observation, a spokesperson for Norwegian airport operator Avinor told Reuters, adding that all flights were diverted to the nearest airport. The airport reopened several hours later."

Copenhagen airport halts traffic due to drone sightings, police says reut.rs/48t3moY

I would be more concerned about Putin's offer to extend the New START quant limits if I thought it would meaningfully affect the risk of nuclear-weapons use going forward. What we've seen since 2022 is nuclear risk rising and falling independently of Russia's attitude toward those limits.

Multiple reports of air defences engaging drones in Moscow and Moscow region. Officials say at least 9 intercepted (they only report successful downings). Blasts heard even in central districts of Russian capital. No reports atow of major damage or casualties.

Will be interesting to see how the US responds. On the one hand, it's Trump saying "nuclear warming is a threat and I want to reduce the nuclears" and on the other hand, it's like all of DC ready to do MM upload

Putin takes the initiative in proposing a 1-year mini-extension of New START quantitative limits (not verification measures, which Russia already withdrew from). If US agrees, Russia gets needed breathing space before intensification of the arms race. If not, Russia looks responsible vs. US.

Putin just announced that Russia is ready to comply with the quant. limits of #NewSTART for one year after its expiry www.kommersant.ru/doc/8058884?...

Just the US Secretary of Defense reciting the Lord's Prayer against the backdrop of a Trident II nuclear missile launch (00:06/00:33). Very normal.

Maybe Afghanistan, maybe Venezuela.

Its okay, I just had a German general explain to me that Germany doesn't need to invest in conventional long-range strike weapons because the United States is our ally 🙃

Our security guarantor.

Whether it's Obama wearing a tan suit, or Trump holding an Ultimate Fighting bout on the South Lawn, both sides have pushed the boundaries of presidential decorum.

This is absurd. But to be honest, we all should have left academia.edu ages ago because of their spamming. Their "AI-generated professional podcasts" of papers are another very good reason to delete your account. Good riddance!

Our security guarantor.

Cancelled it last night!

In response to Russia's airspace violation over Estonia, Turkish journalist Ragıp Soylu recalled why Turkey shot down a Russian jet in 2015. After at least five such incidents in October that year, Ankara warned Moscow it had changed its engagement rules — and then took action.

US ambiguity is something Europe will have to deal with indefinitely, either because the administration of the day is indifferent to hostile (Trump), or it is overstretched elsewhere (future Dem admins). Russia is going to keep pushing and we need to draw a line sooner rather than later.

Europe also needs to establish its credibility vs Russia independently of the United States. Traditionally Moscow has (understandably) seen the US as the main decider in NATO. A European state shooting down the next Russian jet that violates its airspace would help to change that view.

The more the Trump administration prevaricates, the less influence it has over its allies, because the latter become increasingly convinced the US won't do anything in any event, so there is little downside to confronting Russia now while it is relatively weak.

And better now while Russia is tied down in Ukraine and has limited forces to deploy elsewhere.