1/7 It's book publication day! "Atomic Backfires: When Nuclear Policies Fail" is out now from @mitpress.bsky.social in @belfercenter.bsky.social's Studies in International Security book series. Contents and discount codes below. @managingtheatom.bsky.social mitpress.mit.edu/978026205185...

Making a must-read list for 2026? Don't forget to include this new book. 📚 The contributors evaluate circumstances under which well-intentioned nuclear policies make problems worse, not better. Published by @mitpress.bsky.social and includes a contribution by our fellow @laurensukin.bsky.social.

Coming to the Library soon! This book includes the chapter "How Credible Nuclear Security Guarantees Backfire: Evidence from the United Kingdom" by @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social Fellow @laurensukin.bsky.social

Edited by Stephen @herzogsm.bsky.social, Giles David Arceneaux, and Ariel F. W. Petrovics, "Atomic Backfires" is a sobering volume on how efforts to reduce nuclear weapons dangers may sometimes wind up exacerbating them. Available #OpenAccess: mitpress.mit.edu/978026205185...

1/4 "Atomic Backfires: When Nuclear Policies Fail" is now available through @mitpress.bsky.social in the @belfercenter.bsky.social Studies in International Security series! See below for contents, contributors, and discount codes. @managingtheatom.bsky.social

I have recently interviewed a great expert @herzogsm.bsky.social for @theirthinker.bsky.social where we briefly mentioned this book, so I am happy to see it officially introduced. Just its cover photo can prompt a decent debate, actually.

🚨New book: Atomic Backfires: When Nuclear Policies Fail is a sobering edited volume on how efforts to reduce nuclear weapons dangers may sometimes wind up exacerbating them. In a field fixated on finding solutions, Atomic Backfires provocatively takes the opposite tack.

1/7 It's book publication day! "Atomic Backfires: When Nuclear Policies Fail" is out now from @mitpress.bsky.social in @belfercenter.bsky.social's Studies in International Security book series. Contents and discount codes below. @managingtheatom.bsky.social mitpress.mit.edu/978026205185...

MTA Visiting Scholar @herzogsm.bsky.social & alum Dave Alison won a Best Paper 2025 Award from @socriskanalysis.bsky.social for work on the AI-nuclear proliferation nexus. The prize honors papers w/ "the most significant impacts on the theory or practice of risk analysis.” doi.org/10.1111/risa...

My work w/David Allison on how AI may reshape nuclear proliferation & verification won a Best Paper 2025 Award from @socriskanalysis.bsky.social. This honors articles from the year "that have made the most significant impacts on the theory or practice of risk analysis.” doi.org/10.1111/risa...

My work w/David Allison on how AI may reshape nuclear proliferation & verification won a Best Paper 2025 Award from @socriskanalysis.bsky.social. This honors articles from the year "that have made the most significant impacts on the theory or practice of risk analysis.” doi.org/10.1111/risa...

Why do states sign nuclear arms control treaties? A new chapter from 'Nuclear Negotiations' reviews key explanations—from security and norms to domestic politics—and why no single factor fully explains states’ choices. bit.ly/4pWb290 @herzogsm.bsky.social #ResearchPublishing #AcademicSky

The Nonproliferation Review published the first of 2 special issues from the Harvard–MacArthur Beyond Nuclear Deterrence Working Group. #OpenAccess intro by the 3 working group co-chairs & special issue editors, Hassan Elbahtimy, @professorrdg.bsky.social, & me: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Special thanks to our excellent co-chairs @herzogsm.bsky.social, @professorrdg.bsky.social, and Hassan Elbahtimy! Check out the whole special issue here: www.tandfonline.com/toc/rnpr20/3...

📢 Publication Alert I'm pleased to share that our latest (open-access) article, together with @carmenwunderlich.bsky.social is now available on NPR! In this piece, we examine why and how states establish nuclear-weapon-free or nuclear-deterrence-based security orders. doi.org/10.1080/1073...

The Nonproliferation Review published the first of 2 special issues from the Harvard–MacArthur Beyond Nuclear Deterrence Working Group. #OpenAccess intro by the 3 working group co-chairs & special issue editors, Hassan Elbahtimy, @professorrdg.bsky.social, & me: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

1/5 My article w/Dave Allison on how AI might enable nuclear weapons (non)proliferation has been added to the latest issue of Risk Analysis @socriskanalysis.bsky.social (after appearing online first). Check it out #OpenAccess: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

1/5 My article w/Dave Allison on how AI might enable nuclear weapons (non)proliferation has been added to the latest issue of Risk Analysis @socriskanalysis.bsky.social (after appearing online first). Check it out #OpenAccess: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Arms control; missile defense in the US, Russia & China; Iran’s nuclear program; Germany & nukes; Euro deterrence & more in this week’s STAND newsletter, a project by @swp-intsecurity.bsky.social on recent news & analyses to better #underSTAND #nuclear #space #deterrence & #threats 1/10

1/2 I was delighted to contribute a chapter to the new book Nuclear Negotiations: Conditions for Effective Nuclear Diplomacy. It was produced by the Alva Myrdal Centre for Nuclear Disarmament @uupeace.bsky.social. Check out the book! link.springer.com/book/10.1007...

1/2 I was delighted to contribute a chapter to the new book Nuclear Negotiations: Conditions for Effective Nuclear Diplomacy. It was produced by the Alva Myrdal Centre for Nuclear Disarmament @uupeace.bsky.social. Check out the book! link.springer.com/book/10.1007...

@mvranka.bsky.social for @ejisbisa.bsky.social. Their latest paper uses survey experiments on US & UK policy decision-makers to show that public backing for or opposition to nuclear use shapes perceptions of third party deterrent threats and affects elites’ support for nuclear use. ssp.news/ls111125

“For international relations and security studies scholars, the continued reluctance by nuclear-armed states to employ their arsenals – even when fighting and losing major wars – remains a significant puzzle,” write @laurensukin.bsky.social, @herzogsm.bsky.social, @smetanamichal.bsky.social, & (1/2)

doing experiments with British MPs is one of my favorite parts of working at @prcp.cuni.cz ,)

Does public opinion shape elite preferences for nuclear weapon use? 🚀 Our new article in @ejisbisa.bsky.social provides the first experimental evidence that political elites are at least partially influenced by public sentiment when considering high-level decisions on nuclear weapon use.

1/4 Policymakers often do listen to publics when formulating preferences on nuclear weapon use. Our #OpenAccess article provides first-of-kind evidence about when publics enable, constrain, or are less influential. @ejisbisa.bsky.social @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org Link: doi.org/10.1017/eis....

1/4 Policymakers often do listen to publics when formulating preferences on nuclear weapon use. Our #OpenAccess article provides first-of-kind evidence about when publics enable, constrain, or are less influential. @ejisbisa.bsky.social @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org Link: doi.org/10.1017/eis....

Does public opinion affect policymaker preferences about nuclear weapon use? New article from: @herzogsm.bsky.social, @smetanamichal.bsky.social, @laurensukin.bsky.social & @mvranka.bsky.social. Read in @ejisbisa.bsky.social, @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Does public opinion matter for nuclear policy? We say yes, in @ejisbisa.bsky.social. Whether the public backs nuclear use can sway leaders’ preferences and affects external perceptions of the credibility of deterrence. doi.org/10.1017/eis....

Congratulations to @smetanamichal.bsky.social, @laurensukin.bsky.social. @herzogsm.bsky.social, and @mvranka.bsky.social on their new article! They address address the central question: can public opinion influence decision-makers’ views on nuclear weapon use? www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

#OpenAccess from @ejisbisa.bsky.social - Atomic responsiveness: How public opinion shapes elite beliefs and preferences on nuclear weapon use - https://cup.org/4nNXCtY - Michal Smetana, @laurensukin.bsky.social, @herzogsm.bsky.social & @mvranka.bsky.social#OpenAccess #FirstView

1/2 Our new paper has just been published in @ejisbisa.bsky.social 🥰 We designed & fielded an original elite experiment to investigate when & how public opinion on nuclear weapon use shaped elite decision-making.

Atomic responsiveness: How public opinion shapes elite beliefs and preferences on nuclear weapon use doi.org/10.1017/eis.... Paper in @ejisbisa.bsky.social by @smetanamichal.bsky.social, @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social Fellow @laurensukin.bsky.social , @herzogsm.bsky.social and @mvranka.bsky.social

If #Trump starts testing #nuclear weapons, who will be the biggest winner? My 🎙 #podcast, #TheGlobalAgora, with @herzogsm.bsky.social. ▶️ #Apple podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/i... ▶️ #Spotify open.spotify.com/episode/0m4h... ▶️ #Goodpods go.goodpods.com/sd8Z0u #AHouseOfDynamite

If #Trump starts testing #nuclear weapons, who will be the biggest winner? Listen to another episode of my 🎙 #podcast, #TheGlobalAgora. I talked to @herzogsm.bsky.social. ▶️ podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/and...

A new & broad public opinion survey shows US reputation strengthened by actions related to Russia's war against Ukraine, as caution without abandonment & firmness without escalation reassured allies, argue @laurensukin.bsky.social, @herzogsm.bsky.social & Alexander Lanoszka @foreignpolicy.com 5/10

US, Russia’s tests & subs, Euro deterrent, conventional forces, US space force & House of Dynamite in this week’s STAND newsletter, a project by @swp-intsecurity.bsky.social on recent news & analyses to better #underSTAND #nuclear #space #deterrence & #threats 1/10

Very pleased to have published a short piece with Lauren and Stephen in Foreign Policy that describes our latest research.

1/5 In @foreignpolicy.com, @laurensukin.bsky.social, @lanoszka.bsky.social, and I provide analysis on how publics around the world viewed the Biden administration's extensive but restricted military aid to Ukraine in 2022-2023. foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/20/u...

As the United States faces simultaneous challenges from Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and others, it cannot afford to equate credibility with maximalist shows of force.

1/5 In @foreignpolicy.com, @laurensukin.bsky.social, @lanoszka.bsky.social, and I provide analysis on how publics around the world viewed the Biden administration's extensive but restricted military aid to Ukraine in 2022-2023. foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/20/u...

I was a guest on the IISS podcast "The Arms Control Primer" w/ @bollfrass.bsky.social & former @iaeaorg.bsky.social DG Hans Blix. We covered some lessons of the Iraq case for nuclear nonproliferation & verification. Check out the new episode: www.iiss.org/podcasts/arm...

I was a guest on the IISS podcast "The Arms Control Primer" w/ @bollfrass.bsky.social & former @iaeaorg.bsky.social DG Hans Blix. We covered some lessons of the Iraq case for nuclear nonproliferation & verification. Check out the new episode: www.iiss.org/podcasts/arm...

AI could fuel a tech arms race between proliferation-enabling & detection-enhancing tools - favoring the former & straining conventional monitoring & verification methods, which poses risks to nonproliferation, analyze @herzogsm.bsky.social & David Allison @socriskanalysis.bsky.social 8/10

SATCOM & Bundeswehr, Russia’s upgraded missiles, Iran's nuclear program, DPRK & South Korea, AI & tech race & more in this week’s STAND newsletter, a project by @swp-intsecurity.bsky.social, on recent news & analyses to better #underSTAND #nuclear #space #deterrence & #threats 1/10

1/7 How might AI enable the (non)proliferation of nuclear weapons? In a new #OpenAccess article in Risk Analysis (@socriskanalysis.bsky.social), Dave Allison & I explore this question. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

MTA alum David Allison & visiting scholar @herzogsm.bsky.social have published one of the first systematic studies looking at the connection between AI & nuclear (non)proliferation. See the thread below!

1/7 How might AI enable the (non)proliferation of nuclear weapons? In a new #OpenAccess article in Risk Analysis (@socriskanalysis.bsky.social), Dave Allison & I explore this question. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Atomic Backfires: When Nuclear Policies Fail is now available for pre-order from @mitpress.bsky.social! The thread below describes the premise of the volume and its contributors. mitpressbookstore.mit.edu/book/9780262...

Explore @herzogsm.bsky.social's most recent contributions to the field here: www.belfercenter.org/person/steph...