Už jsme ji zmiňovali — a stojí za to se k ní vrátit. Studie @prcp.cuni.cz, na níž se podílel i Marek Vranka z IKSŽ, potvrzuje, že veřejná podpora zvyšuje ochotu politiků schválit jaderný úder. 🚀💥 Přečtěte si více v článku 👇 @fsv.charlesuni.cuni.cz

What if Russia wins? Prof. Carlo Masala addressed this question in his recent lecture as he presented his book "If Russia Wins", showing how a 2028 Russian attack on Estonia could expose Europe’s political paralysis and weak defence. A stark reminder of what’s at stake. @ims.fsv.cuni.cz

Does public opinion shape elite preferences for nuclear weapon use? 🚀 Our new article in @ejisbisa.bsky.social provides the first experimental evidence that political elites are at least partially influenced by public sentiment when considering high-level decisions on nuclear weapon use.

📉 Do kdy ještě může Putin financovat válku na Ukrajině? Schodky státního rozpočtu se propadají, americké sankce snižují příjmy z ropy a plynu a propouštění zaměstnanců snižuje zisk z daně z příjmu. Situaci popsal náš výzkumník Karel Svoboda pro server info.cz. 👇 www.info.cz/zpravodajstv...

We are excited to welcome new researchers to the PRCP! 🥳 Read more about their background and research focus below. 👇

As the United States faces simultaneous challenges from Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and others, it cannot afford to equate credibility with maximalist shows of force.

🇺🇸🇺🇦 Experts believed Biden's careful strategy towards UA (sanctions instead of attempts of military resolve) would hurt U.S. credibility. A new 24-country public opinion survey from @laurensukin.bsky.social et al. however finds the opposite: the calculated strategy raised U.S. credibility.

Our second panel turned to foreign interference in the emerging Cold War. @kristinmbakke.bsky.social presented research on public attitudes in Russia’s “near abroad,” showing how the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine disrupted geopolitical orientations and deepened polarization.

"Cold wars, unlike hot wars, do not have a clear start; they have a clear ending, however.” Professor Barry Buzan used this point to highlight how today’s geopolitical tensions lack a defined beginning yet show familiar patterns of rivalry and competition reminiscent of the Cold War era. #CSF2025

Mariya Grinberg was more cautious about calling the current tensions a Second Cold War. She noted: “I do think we’re not quite in a Cold War, but I’m not entirely sure that makes things any better.” #CSF2025

Heidi Hardt spoke about the uncertainty of U.S. foreign policy, particularly its shifting stance on the war in Ukraine, which she described as “extremely unpredictable.” #CSF2025

Erik Lin-Greenberg argued that the current Cold War is “hotter” than the first, mainly due to new technologies such as cyber weapons, drones, and AI, which have increased the risk of escalation. He noted that these tools make conflicts far more visible to the public.

The first panel of the day is now underway, featuring Barry Buzan (LSE), Erik Lin-Greenberg and Mariya Grinberg (MIT), and Heidi Hardt (University of California, Irvine), moderated by Michal Smetana (Peace Research Center Prague).

One of the world’s most distinguished International Relations theorists, Professor Barry Buzan opened his keynote by declaring that we are already living in a Second Cold War, shaped by the end of the Western-led order and the rise of global crises.

Our first panel built on Prof. Buzan’s keynote. Mariya Grinberg (MIT) argued that while the global outlook is grim, it’s unclear if we’re in a new Cold War. True bipolarity and recurring crises between 2 superpowers are absent, with only one true proxy war taking place. #CSF2025

The Czech Security Forum 2025 has officially started! We opened with a keynote by Prof. Barry Buzan (LSE), who emphasized that the West has lost its global influence over state behavior and argued that we have been living in a Second Cold War for the past decade. #CSF2025

🎙️ „Jsem mírně optimistický, že ani jedna strana nemá zájem o to, aby znovu vypukla válka v takové míře, jako byla doposud. Vidím nějakou naději, že minimálně to nejhorší násilí je teď zastavené,“ komentoval náš @jakubzahora.bsky.social příměří v Gaze pro hnonline.sk. hnonline.sk/tv/podcasty/...

🇨🇿🇺🇦 Jak bude nová česká vláda přistupovat k Ukrajině? Podle našeho výzkumníka @jeberle.bsky.social bude méně vstřícná oproti té předchozí, ale je nepravděpodobné, že by blokovala vojenskou podporu Kyjevu. @ims.fsv.cuni.cz @fsv.unikarlova.cuni.cz www.ceskenoviny.cz/ukrinform/ce...

Huge congratulations to our Ph.D. candidate Zakir Rzazade for publishing his first peer-reviewed article! 🎉 He explores the expert-media gap in perceptions on drone usage implications on modern warfare. @ims.fsv.cuni.cz @fsv.charlesuni.cuni.cz @europeansecurity.bsky.social

📣 Zástupci Izraele a Hamásu uzavřeli příměří. Dohodu komentoval náš výzkumník Jakub Záhora. Podle něj jsme za dva roky nebyli tak blízko dosažení míru, ale hlavní otázkou je, kdo bude v Gaze vládnout po stažení izraelské armády a vrácení rukojmí. @ims.fsv.cuni.cz www.irozhlas.cz/zpravy-svet/...

Just two more days to apply! ⬇️ @iirprague.bsky.social

❗️Zadržení flotily aktivistů mířící do Gazy, včetně Češky Šárky Přikrylové, bylo podle naší výzkumnice Nikoly Kurkové Klímové v rozporu s mezinárodním právem. Izrael tak dál porušuje rezoluce RB OSN i závazné smlouvy, píše @voxpot.bsky.social www.voxpot.cz/zadrzeni-flo...

🕊️ 20 years after Israel’s Gaza disengagement, what did it really achieve? In a new article, Rob Geist Pinfold argues it wasn’t a failed peace plan, but a way to freeze the peace process while grasping more control over the West Bank. 📄 Full paper: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

📢 Job opportunity: Postdoctoral Researcher! Join the @iirprague.bsky.social INTERFER team and delve into foreign interference research with a focus on technology. 💼 Full-time position until Dec 2028 💶 64,600 CZK gross/month + travel funds 🗓 Apply by 12 Oct 👉 www.prcprague.cz/news/2025/9/...

🚀 How to navigate the new nuclear map? @laurensukin.bsky.social and Rohan Mukherjee (LSE) published a 7-essay roundtable in Texas National Security Review on shifts in the global nuclear order across Europe, Latin America, Middle East, South Asia, China & the Korean Peninsula.

🇺🇸🇨🇳 Despite Trump's affirmations of U.S. defense commitments to countering China in the Indo-Pacific, our reseacher @laurensukin.bsky.social claims that relative relief felt by Indo-Pacific allies is premature. Many key mechanisms and personnel are deteriorating. warontherocks.com/2025/09/wash...

📢 New article from Jakub Záhora in the @cambridgecria.bsky.social: How can science fiction help us understand the experience of conducting fieldwork in international relations? Read the full article here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

🎓 Just published in @cspjournal.bsky.social: Does CSFP co-ordination foster convergence? By analyzing EU voting behavior on nuclear weapons in the UNGA 1979–2022, @profonderco.bsky.social and his colleagues find that while convergence hardly increases, the level of consensus remains stable.

🎙️ Náš @vbahensky.bsky.social byl hostem #SpotlightNews Aktuálně. Reagoval na proslov Marka Rutteho na Pražském obranném summitu, který opakovaně varoval před ruským zbrojením. Jak moc je realistické, že by Rusko mohlo opravdu obsadit například Lotyšsko? zpravy.aktualne.cz/zahranici/st...

🎙️ Co přinesl summit v Číně, kterého se kromě Vladimira Putina zúčastnili také zástupci Íránu, Indie, Běloruska či Turecka? Podle našeho výzkumníka Karla Svobody zejména to Putinovu sílu a to, že část světa odmítá hegemonii USA. @ims.fsv.cuni.cz dvojka.rozhlas.cz/rusista-kare...

🥳 Srdečně vás zveme na další večer plný debat TO JE KRIZE! Tentokrát s @voxpot.bsky.social, @amoklima.bsky.social a @iirprague.bsky.social. Těšit se můžete na debaty o AI a klima dezinformacích, české politice vůči Izraeli, oligarchizaci politiky a morálce v současných konfliktech.

✒️ New #OpenAccess article in the JCR by our @laurensukin.bsky.social, co-authored by @herzogsm.bsky.social and @lanoszka.bsky.social! They examined the efficacy of US attempts to reassure allies and the public during the war in Ukraine, questioning whether restraint or resolve was more effective.

🇺🇦 Co by se stalo, kdyby Ukrajina neměla jasně dané bezpečnostní záruky? O tom, ale i o Trumpovi, Putinovi a Aljašce mluvil náš ředitel @smetanamichal.bsky.social s @jbelicek.bsky.social v @denikalarm.bsky.social. ➡️ Celý rozhovor: denikalarm.cz/2025/08/trum... @ims.fsv.cuni.cz

✍️ @zuzanakrulichova.bsky.social just published a new article in @coco-journal.bsky.social: She presents a systematic literature review on narrative approaches in IR, introducing agency-centric and structure-centric approaches. @ims.fsv.cuni.cz

🚨 Just published: the first global quantitative study on the relationship between democracy and state support for arms control from @tobiasrisse.bsky.social! ➡️ Read the full article here (open access): academic.oup.com/fpa/article/... @ims.fsv.cuni.cz @fsv.charlesuni.cuni.cz

🎓 Just published! @laurensukin.bsky.social and her colleagues find that in case of Chinese aggression against a regional state, the US public would support intervening on behalf of allies. ➡️ Such willingness however stems from alliance, not from an adversarial relationship with Beijing.

🎉 We are happy to officially welcome Isabelle Haynes as a new member to our @erc.europa.eu #MICROCODE team! She is a new Ph.D. candidate at the @ims.fsv.cuni.cz and in her research, she will investigate cross-national heterogeneity in public support for the collective defence principle.

New article in @ejir.bsky.social! 🚨 @smetanamichal.bsky.social @mvranka.bsky.social and @ondrejrosendorf.bsky.social argue that due to the overly complex nature of arms control practices, the public relies on simplified heuristic frames and elite cues to build their opinion. @ims.fsv.cuni.cz

Congratulations to our Ph.D. student Zakir Rzazade! 🥳 His paper “Does Preeminence in Emerging and Military Technologies Matter for International Status? Evidence from Conjoint Survey Experiment” was awarded Best Paper Prize at the @eissnetwork.bsky.social annual conference. 🚀

New research alert! 🚨 @tobiasrisse.bsky.social just published an article in @intlinteractions.bsky.social on the topic of interstate rivalry, major power status, and state support for arms control. 🌎 He argues that rivalries with major powers decrease non-major powers’ support for arms control.

Náš výzkumník @kolacekj.bsky.social byl hostem #Vinohradska12. Může Izrael opravdu zabránit Íránu ve vývoji jaderné zbraně? A jakou roli budou v konfliktu hrát USA? @irozhlas.cz 💥 🎧 Poslechněte si celou epizodu zde: www.irozhlas.cz/zpravy-svet/... @ims.fsv.cuni.cz

„Izrael není schopen zničit íránský jaderný program kompletně, nemá vojenské kapacity k proniknutí desítky metrů pod zem,“ říká v pořadu #PtámSeJá @smetanamichal.bsky.social z @prcp.cuni.cz @ims.fsv.cuni.cz @fsv.charlesuni.cuni.cz. Že byl #Írán jen dny od vytvoření jaderné zbraně, je prý nesmysl.

🚨 New research: What role should the US play in the nuclear dynamics of the Asia-Pacific region? In a new article at Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament, @laurensukin.bsky.social and Samuel Seitz argue that the goal should be deterring nuclear threats, not threatening to use nuclear weapons.

The main outcome of our two-year Stanton Foundation project has now been accepted for publication in the European Journal of International Relations 🔥 @prcp.cuni.cz @ims.fsv.cuni.cz @fsv.charlesuni.cuni.cz

New research alert! 🎓 Our @zuzanalizcova.bsky.social and her colleagues Jana Urbanová (MUNI) and Karel B. Müller (CEVRO) just published an article about motivations of NGO actors to participate in 🇨🇿🇩🇪 bilateral relationships. #GermanPolitics

Experts talk about a new nuclear age but how much of it is truly new? Read more in my new article, "Third or ‘second and a half’? Continuity, path dependence, and the third nuclear age," Now published online-first @globalpolicy.bsky.social onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

🥳 Our #INTERFER project website has launched! You can find all information about the project, its work packages as well as the entire research team at interfer-project.eu.

Naše Centrum s @prcp.cuni.cz nedávno představilo studii, jak by bylo možné růst tuzemských obranných výdajů financovat. ⚔️ Všechny tři navrhované cesty nicméně politicky narážejí, analyzuje @janwirnitzer.bsky.social ve článku @denikn.cz . 🔗 denikn.cz/1740427/nena...

Hostem #Vinohradska12 byl náš výzkumník Jakub Záhora. Popisoval aktuální stav blokády Pásma Gazy, které sužuje naprostý nedostatek jídla i humanitární pomoci. Poslechněte si celou epizodu 👇

🛡️ Jak je na tom Česko s obranyschopností pohledem peněz? A jak se může (a má) změnit rozpočtování obrany, aby bylo co nejefektivnější? Náš zakladatel Petr Janský o tom diskutoval s expertem Vojtěchem Bahenským @vbahensky.bsky.social z PRCP @prcp.cuni.cz v podcastu FSV UK #DeFacto.